nsw seasonal conditions report - june 2015 · outlook information was up to date as at 15 june...

The seasonal outlooks presented in this report are obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and other sources. These outlooks are general statements about the likelihood (chance) of (for example) exceeding the median rainfall or minimum or maximum temperatures. Such probability

outlooks should not be used as categorical or definitive forecasts, but should be regarded as tools to assist in risk management and decision making. Changes in seasonal outlooks may have occurred since this report was released. Outlook information was up to date as at 15 June 2015.

NSW Seasonal Conditions Report - June 2015Highlights • Rainfall during May was average to above average in the

north but below average over the south west. • Drier than normal conditions and warmer daytime

temperatures are likely between June and August across most of eastern, central and northern NSW.

• An El Niño event has commenced and may continue into spring. Reduced winter/spring rainfall, higher daytime temperatures and an increased risk of frost are likely.

• Topsoil moisture levels improved over the coast and in the west. Subsoil moisture levels were generally stable.

• Pasture growth was maintained over central NSW, but declined across the Riverina, south west and west.

• Forage and early sown crops have responded well. Grazing of crops has commenced. Sowings of early maturing winter crops continued during May.

• Resources to assist in management for areas suffering poor rainfall and growth are available at www.dpi.nsw.gov.au/agriculture/emergency/drought/managing

1. Summary Rainfall during May was average or above across northern and areas of central NSW, but below average in areas of the far south west, the western and central Riverina and the far south east. Above average rainfall occurred across the mid-north to north coast, most of the Hunter valley and areas of the northern tablelands, far north west and northern central west. Rainfall across some drought affected areas of the north west stimulated some pasture growth and some crop sowing on marginal moisture. However, subsoil moisture remains low.

Pasture growth was maintained or improved across central and areas of southern NSW. It declined across areas of the Riverina, the south west and west. Growth was stable across the coast, but low across areas of the north west. Waterlogging has restricted pasture growth over the mid-north to north coast. Biomass levels improved slightly, but remained low across much of coastal, central and western NSW.

Sowings of early maturing winter crops continued during May, with an increase in chickpeas. Early to mid-season winter crops

established and produced well, particularly in the north east of the central west. Grazing of early sown crops has commenced, particularly on the tablelands and slopes. Good cotton yields were recorded. Harvesting of soybeans on the north coast has been delayed.

Drier than normal conditions and warmer than normal daytime temperatures are likely across most of across most of eastern, central and northern NSW between June and August. Warmer than normal overnight temperatures are likely over eastern, northern and areas of central and southern NSW. During June, drier than normal conditions are likely across much of eastern, central, southern and northern NSW. An El Niño event has commenced, and is likely to continue into spring. Likely effects are lower than normal winter/spring rainfall, warmer than normal daytime temperatures and a higher frost risk. Warm sea surface and sub-surface temperature anomalies extend across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Most indicators remain consistent with El Niño conditions. Rainfall ranged between 1-402 mm during May, with the heaviest falls over the mid-north to north coast. In the south west, western Riverina and areas of the south east over the Monaro, rainfall was below average. Daytime temperatures were close to normal and overnight slightly above. Relative quarterly rainfall was average over 73% of NSW and half yearly over 52%. Modelled topsoil moisture improved slightly across western NSW, but remained low. Levels declined in central NSW but improved along the coast. Subsoil moisture remained relatively stable, but improved across the coast.

Yearly runoff remained low across much of central and north western NSW. Stock water supplies are low in many areas. Relative pasture growth declined across areas of the south west and Riverina and was low across areas of the north west. It was near average along the coast but above average across areas of the northern slopes, northern and central tablelands, central west, south west slopes and far south.

http://www.dpi.nsw.gov.au/agriculture/emergency/drought/managing

NSW Seasonal Conditions Report - June 2015

2 NSW Department of Primary Industries, June 2015

Table of Contents

Highlights 1

1. Summary 1

2. Seasonal outlook 3

2.1 Seasonal outlook summary 3

2.2 Seasonal rainfall outlook 3

2.3 Seasonal temperature outlook 3

2.4 Monthly rainfall and temperature outlook 4

2.5 Other climatic models 5

2.6 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 5

2.7 Other climatic indicators 10

3. Rainfall 10

3.1 Relative rainfall 10

3.2 Total rainfall 11

4. Temperature anomalies 12

5. Relative soil moisture 12

5.1 Summary 12

5.2 Topsoil 12

5.3 Subsoil 13

6. Pasture growth and biomass 13

6.1 Pasture growth outlook 13

6.2 Modelled pasture growth 14

6.2 Modelled biomass 14

6.4 Relative pasture growth 15

6.5 Relative biomass 16

7. Streamflow, water storage and irrigation allocations 16

7.1 Streamflow 16

7.2 Storage levels 16

7.3 Irrigation allocations 16

8. Appendix 18



2. Seasonal outlook Seasonal outlook and ENSO information are sourced from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) and international sources. The BoM’s official outlooks are based on modelled output from the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), which is a dynamical (physics-based) climate model developed by the BoM and CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research. Further information on POAMA outlooks can be obtained here and at http://poama.bom.gov.au/.

Outlooks should be treated with caution when skill is low and strong climate drivers are lacking. In these situations, secondary influences (such as sea surface temperatures around the continent) may have a greater impact.

Changes in seasonal outlooks may have occurred since this report was released, and can be determined by clicking on the links provided. Seasonal outlook and ENSO information were collated in early June and were up to date as at 12 June 2015.

2.1 Seasonal outlook summary

Table 1: Seasonal outlook summary (BoM)

Current Outlook

Previous Outlook

Rainfall (quarter) Drier (areas of northern, central, eastern NSW) Neutral (far west, far south west, far north east)

Wetter

Max Temperature (quarter)

Near neutral (far west, far south west) Warmer (northern, eastern, central NSW)

Cooler (western and areas of central NSW) Near neutral (southern, eastern, most of central NSW) Warmer (far south east)

Min Temperature (quarter)

Warmer (northern, eastern, southern, south eastern NSW) Near neutral (central areas of far west, areas of central NSW)

Warmer

Outlook Legend: Grey = Neutral, i.e. equal chance of drier/wetter or warmer/cooler.

Red = Drier or warmer. Blue = Wetter or cooler. Source: Derived from information provided by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

2.2 Seasonal rainfall outlook • For the three month period from June to

August, drier than normal conditions are likely across most of eastern, central and northern NSW. The chances of exceeding median rainfall in these areas are less than 40%. There is a near-equal chance of drier or wetter than normal conditions in the far north east, the far west and areas of the south (Figure 10). This means that for every ten years with similar climate patterns to those at present, across most of NSW about six to eight June to August periods would be expected to be drier than normal, and three to four periods wetter than normal.

• The past outlook accuracy (skill) is moderate across north eastern NSW and areas of central and southern NSW. For most of northern, far western, central and south eastern NSW, outlook accuracy is low (Figure 13).

• Of the global climate models surveyed, 58% suggested drier than normal conditions for much of NSW over the period, 17% suggested neutral conditions (a near equal chance of wetter or drier than normal) and 25% wetter than normal conditions.

2.3 Seasonal temperature outlook • Over the three month period from June to

August, warmer than normal daytime temperatures are likely over eastern, central and northern NSW. There is a near equal chance of warmer or cooler than normal daytime temperatures across areas of the far west and far south west (Figure 11).

• The chances of exceeding median maximum temperatures range from 60-70% across most of the State. This means that for every ten years with similar climate patterns to those at present, across eastern NSW about six to seven June to August periods would be expected to have warmer than normal daytime temperatures, and three to four periods cooler than normal.

• The past outlook accuracy (confidence or skill) for the maximum temperature outlook is moderate to high across most of NSW (Figure 13).

• Over the three month period from June to August, warmer than normal overnight temperatures are likely over eastern, northern and areas of central and southern NSW. There is a near equal chance of warmer or cooler than normal daytime temperatures across areas of the central

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/poama2.4/about-POAMA-outlooks.shtml

http://poama.bom.gov.au/

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/overview/summary/


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/rainfall/median/seasonal/0

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/rain.seaus.shtml#tabs=Outlook-accuracy

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/temperature/maximum/median/seasonal/0

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/temperature/minimum/median/seasonal/0



west, far west and far south west (Figure 12). For every ten years with similar climate patterns to those at present, across eastern and northern NSW seven to eight June to August periods would be expected to have warmer than normal overnight temperatures, and two to three cooler than normal overnight temperatures.

• The past accuracy for the minimum temperature outlook is low for the western half of NSW and moderate to high for the east (Figure 13).

• Of the global climate models surveyed, 82% indicated that warmer than normal conditions are likely across NSW over the period and 18% indicated a near-equal probability for warmer or cooler than normal conditions.

2.4 Monthly rainfall and temperature outlook

Monthly outlook information is sourced from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM). The multi-week and month 2 experimental climate outlooks from the POAMA model are provided with thanks to, and by special agreement with, the Bureau of Meteorology. However, they are experimental only, do not currently form part of the BoM’s standard services and are not yet fully calibrated. They should therefore be used with some caution. Feedback on the experimental outlooks can be provided to [email protected].

Monthly outlook summary

Table 2: Monthly outlook summary (BoM)

June July

Rainfall Drier (most of NSW) Neutral (far west, far north east)

Neutral Wetter (far west)

Max Temperature Warmer Neutral (south, far south west)

Warmer Neutral (far west)

Min Temperature Warmer (central to north coast, far south east) Neutral (central and northern NSW) Cooler (far south west)

Warmer Neutral (far south west)


Red = Drier or warmer. Blue = Wetter or cooler. Source: Derived from information provided by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Month 1 - June • During June drier than normal conditions are

likely across much of eastern, central, southern and northern NSW. There is a near-equal chance of drier or wetter than normal conditions across much of the far west and far north east corner of NSW (Figure 14).

• The June rainfall outlook has low past accuracy (skill) over most of the State, with an area of moderate accuracy extending from the Illawarra to lower north coast.

• Warmer daytime temperatures are likely across much of northern, central and eastern NSW. Across much of the south and far south west, there is a near-equal chance of cooler or warmer than normal daytime temperatures (Figure 15).

• The June daytime temperature outlook has a high to very high past accuracy (skill) across western NSW, and a moderate to high past accuracy for the remainder of NSW.

• There is a near-equal chance of cooler or warmer than normal overnight temperatures across most of inland NSW during June. Warmer than normal overnight temperatures are likely in the far north east, the central to mid-north coast and the far south east. Cooler than normal overnight temperatures are likely in the south west (Figure 16).

• The June overnight temperature outlook has a moderate past accuracy (skill) across most of NSW, with areas of low skill in the north west, across the lower north coast and northern tablelands and in areas of the south east.

June multi-week (as at 14 June) • Weekly experimental outlook information

suggests that during mid to late June (14-27 June) wetter than normal conditions are likely most of NSW. The past accuracy (skill) for this outlook is high for most of NSW and moderate for the remainder.

• Daytime temperatures during mid to late June are likely to be warmer than normal across the majority of the coast and southern and central NSW. The north and the north west have a near-equal chance of warmer or cooler than normal daytime temperatures. The past accuracy (skill) level for this outlook is high in the north west and moderate across the remainder of NSW.

• Overnight temperatures during mid to late June are likely to be warmer than normal

http://poama.bom.gov.au/realtime/raintemp.shtml

http://poama.bom.gov.au/realtime/raintemp.shtml


mailto:[email protected]?subject=POAMA%20experimental%20outlook





across NSW. This outlook has a moderate accuracy (skill).

Month 2 - July • During July, there is a near-equal chance of

drier or wetter than normal conditions across most of NSW. Wetter than normal conditions are likely across areas of the far west (Figure 18).

• The July rainfall outlook has a moderate past accuracy (skill) across most NSW, except for areas of the north, far south west, central to mid-north coast and far south east. In these areas, the past accuracy is low.

• Warmer than normal daytime temperatures are likely across northern, eastern, southern and central NSW during July. For western NSW there is a near-equal chance of cooler or warmer than normal daytime temperatures (Figure 18).

• The past accuracy (skill) for the July daytime temperature outlook is moderate across most of NSW, but low for an area in the far south east and central west.

• Warmer than normal overnight temperatures are likely across eastern, central, northern and southern NSW during July. For the south west, there is a near-equal chance of cooler or warmer than normal overnight temperatures (Figure 18).

• The past accuracy (skill) for the July overnight temperature outlook is low across most of NSW, but in the north east and a northern area of the far west.

• Recent unofficial updates to the July outlooks indicate that there is still a near-equal likelihood of drier or wetter than normal conditions across most of NSW. There is a chance of drier than normal conditions in the south and south east. However, the outlook skill is low. Warmer than normal daytime temperatures are likely across most of NSW, and a near-equal likelihood of warmer or cooler than normal conditions in the far west. The outlook skill is moderate. Overnight temperatures are likely to be warmer than normal across northern and eastern NSW, but there is a near-equal chance of warmer or cooler than normal overnight temperatures in the south west. However, the outlook skill is low.

2.5 Other climatic models Seasonal outlook summary Information is provided for the UK Meteorology Office’s global long range probability modelled

output and the APEC Climate Centre’s deterministic multi-model ensemble outlook.

Table 3: Seasonal outlook summary – UKMO and APCC

Jun-Aug UKMO APCC

Rainfall (quarter) Wetter (most of northern and western NSW) Near neutral (coastal and southern NSW)

Near neutral

Overall Temperature (quarter)

Warmer

Warmer

Sep-Nov UKMO APCC

Rainfall (quarter) Neutral (northern, eastern, central and southern NSW) Wetter (far north western NSW)

Drier

Overall Temperature (quarter)

Warmer Warmer


Red = Drier or warmer. Blue = Wetter or cooler. Source: Derived from information provided by the UK Met Office and the APEC Climate Centre.

2.6 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ENSO summary • An El Niño event has commenced, is

continuing to develop and is likely to persist through winter and spring. Reduced winter and spring rainfall and streamflow, warmer than normal daytime temperatures and an increased risk of frost are likely across inland NSW.

• The NOAA CPC/IRI indicated that (based on their thresholds and indicators) an El Niño event commenced in February, and has about a 90% chance of continuing through winter and about an 85% chance of continuing through spring 2015.

• Warm sea surface temperature anomalies extend across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and temperatures are well above the Bureau’s El Niño thresholds. The western equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures are near-neutral.

• Sub-surface warm temperature anomalies remain across most of the central to eastern Pacific to a depth of 100-200 m, warming the sea surface. A tongue of warm water

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob


http://www.apcc21.org/eng/service/6mon/ps/japcc030703.jsp


http://www.apcc21.org/eng/service/6mon/ps/japcc030703.jsp



extends to depth in the far east. A cool anomaly is present at depth in the west.

• The SOI is has moved back into the neutral range due to local weather factors. At 31 May the 30-day value was -13.7, but at 14 June it was +0.6.

• Trade winds were reversed across the western and central equatorial Pacific. Trade winds have also been consistently weaker than average this year, all of which has facilitated the warming of the Pacific Ocean sub-surface.

• Cloud conditions at the junction of the equator and the International Date Line and across Indonesia are generally consistent with an El Niño pattern, although cloudiness near the Date Line decreased over the early June. It has since increased slightly again. Cloud has been low across Indonesia.

• Sea surface temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean (and also to the north east of Australia) have cooled somewhat, which is allowing the El Niño to more strongly influence eastern Australia.

• Other indicators such as the thermocline slope index (negative), the equatorial Pacific basin upper ocean heat anomalies (positive), and the Oceanic Nino Index (+0.7°C) are considered by CPC/IRI to reflect El Niño conditions.

• All global climate models surveyed by the Bureau (as at 16 June) indicate sea surface temperatures in the NINO3.4 region during July to November are likely to remain well above the Bureau’s El Niño threshold.

• An El Niño event is generally associated with below-average rainfall across NSW (particularly inland NSW) during winter and spring, above average daytime temperatures, lower than average streamflow and an increased risk of frost. The effects on winter-spring rainfall over twelve moderate to strong El Niño events are shown in Figure 40.

• However, the severity of an El Niño event does not necessarily directly relate to the severity of the impact on rainfall. In some cases, severe El Niño events have had a limited effect on rainfall, while mild-moderate El Niño events have had a moderate to major effect. An example of the latter is the borderline event that occurred last year.

ENSO outlook and detailed comments

Table 4: ENSO/Climatic Outlook

Current Outlook (early-mid June)

Previous Outlook (early May)

ENSO Status (overall)

El Niño El Niño

BoM ENSO Tracker Status

El Niño El Niño

SOI Negative Negative

Pacific Ocean SST (NINO3.4)

Warm (Above El Niño thresholds)

Warm (Above El Niño thresholds)

Indian Ocean (IOD) Neutral Neutral

Southern Annular Mode (SAM/AAO)

Weakly negative – near neutral

Near neutral – weakly negative

Summary Legend: Grey = Neutral, i.e. neither El Niño nor La Niña or no rainfall trend.

Red = El Niño/reduced rainfall trend. Blue = La Niña/higher rainfall trend. Source: Derived from information provided by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. • The Bureau of Meteorology’s ENSO tracker

(Figure 1) moved to ‘El Niño’ on 12 May.

Figure 1: Bureau of Meteorology ENSO tracker status

Source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology

• The Bureau of Meteorology’s POAMA model’s latest long range outlook (as at 24 May) indicates that the sea surface temperature anomalies in the NINO3.4 Pacific Ocean region are likely to remain above the Bureau’s El Niño threshold during winter and into spring (Figure 2). The majority of the individual ensembles (grey lines) are above the El Niño threshold over this period.

• All of the eight global climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology (as at 16 June) indicate that sea surface temperatures in the NINO3.4 region are likely remain well above the Bureau’s the El Niño threshold from July to November.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/aao_index_mrf.shtml


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/tracker/#tabs=Summary

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/tracker/#tabs=Summary

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Overview



Figure 2: Current Bureau of Meteorology POAMA NINO3.4 Forecast

Source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology • The CPC/IRI ENSO Alert System Status

remains at ‘El Niño advisory’. This indicates El Niño conditions (meeting their thresholds and criteria) are observed and expected to continue.

• The CPC/IRI ENSO forecast (as at 11 June) indicates that El Niño conditions developed during February and extended into mid-May (based on their thresholds – see below).

• The CPC/IRI forecast indicates about a 90% likelihood that NINO3.4 sea surface temperatures at or above their threshold will continue through winter and about an 85% likelihood they will continue through spring (Figure 3, Table 5). Strengthening of El Niño conditions is suggested during spring and early summer.

• Model forecast skill is still lower than for later in the year, which means there is some uncertainty about how strong the event may become.

Figure 3: CPC/IRI Consensus ENSO Forecast

Table 5: Current CPC/IRI consensus ENSO forecast probabilities (as at 14 May)

Season La Niña Neutral El Niño

Jun-Aug 0% 3% 97%

Jul-Sep 0% 5% 95%

Aug-Oct 0% 7% 93%

Sep-Nov 1% 7% 92%

Oct-Dec 1% 9% 90%

Nov-Jan 1% 11% 88%

Dec-Feb 1% 13% 86%

Jan-Mar 2% 14% 84%

Source: Climate Prediction Centre/International Research Institute for Climate and Society.

• Note that the CPC/IRI classifies values of the NINO3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C as indicating neutral conditions, rather than the -0.8°C to +0.8°C range used by the Bureau of Meteorology. This will result in differences when various meteorological organisations report that El Niño or La Niña conditions are developing.

Sea temperatures • Monthly sea surface temperature information

from the Bureau of Meteorology and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) showed warm temperature anomalies extend across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The positive anomalies continued to strengthen in the eastern equatorial Pacific during May.

• The most recent monthly temperature anomaly value in the key NINO3.4 region is +1.03°C for May, up from +0.78°C for April.

• Weekly sea surface temperatures to 14 June in the NINO 3.4 region were +1.31°C (Figure 4).

• The sea surface temperature anomalies to 14 June were +1.61°C in the NINO 3 region, and +1.18°C in the NINO 4 region. The temperature anomaly in the NINO 1 region was +2.10°C, and the anomaly in the NINO 2 region was +2.44°C.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/poama2.4/poama.shtml


http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-cpc_update

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/sst_monthly.gif

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.shtml



http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/poama2.4/poama.shtml�



Figure 4: NINO3.4 Sea Surface Temperature Index


• The sub-surface sea temperatures show the development of positive anomaly in the western-central Pacific as a result of trade wind reversals and weakening. The anomaly strengthened and moved eastwards in February/March (a downwelling Kelvin wave). Temperatures in the centre of this warm anomaly are currently 4-6°C above normal. This has contributed to the warming of the sea surface (Figure 5).

• Sub-surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific remain above average. A small cool anomaly remains at depth in the western equatorial Pacific.

Figure 5: Monthly sea sub-surface temperatures


Southern oscillation index (SOI) • The monthly value of the Southern

Oscillation Index was negative at -13.7 on 31 May, but due to local weather factors has currently shifted into the neutral range at +0.6 (as at 14 June) (Figure 6, Table 6).

• The SOI fell to negative levels in mid-late March, but returned to neutral levels in mid-April. In early May, it became negative and stayed negative till early June. It is currently neutral due to local weather factors.

Table 6: Values of the Southern Oscillation Index

Current

monthly value (14 June)

Previous monthly value

(11 May)

SOI (30 day) +0.6 -11.4 Source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Figure 6: 30 day moving SOI

Source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology • The Southern Oscillation Index is one factor

indicating the development and intensity of El Niño and La Niña events in the Pacific Ocean. It is calculated from variations in surface atmospheric pressure between Darwin and Tahiti. Values of the SOI between -8 and +8 indicate neutral conditions, sustained values above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, and sustained values below -8 may indicate an El Niño event.

Sub-tropical ridge (STR)/atmospheric pressure • The sub-tropical ridge was close to its

normal latitude but slightly further north for the time of year (over the 30 days to 1 June).

• Atmospheric pressure over NSW during May was near normal in the south east, slightly higher in eastern NSW and higher in the west (Figure 7). The high pressure in the west can block rainfall from moving across the state.

• During May, the sub-tropical ridge is normally around a pressure of 1022 hPa and is centred at a latitude of around 32°S. In June the pressure increases to around 1023 hPa and the ridge normally moves north to around 30-31°S.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices.shtml?bookmark=nino3.4

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/sub_surf_mon.gif

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Sea-sub%E2%80%93surface

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/monitoring/soi30.png




http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/cmb.cgi?page=map&variable=mslp&vstatus=anomaly&period=month&area=nat



Figure 7: Monthly mean sea level pressure anomaly

Source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology. • The sub-tropical ridge is a zone of high

pressure which between January and March is normally located south of Australia at about 38°S to 39°S, and tends to suppress cold front activity. During June to September, it generally moves northwards to around 30°S to 32°S, allowing cold fronts to extend further into southern Australia.

Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) • The Indian Ocean dipole is currently neutral.

The latest IOD index value for the week ending 14 June is +0.13°C.

• The Bureau of Meteorology’s POAMA model outlook indicates IOD values at neutral (although high) levels during late winter and spring. Two climate models surveyed by the Bureau currently favour a near-positive IOD in July and a positive IOD in September. One model favours a positive IOD in November (Figure 8).

Figure 8: Current Bureau of Meteorology POAMA Indian Ocean Dipole Forecast

Source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology. • The IOD has little effect on Australian climate

until late autumn or winter. An IOD event usually starts between May and June, peaks in August to October and rapidly decays afterwards. It tends to have little influence

from December to April, during the monsoon season.

• A negative IOD period (a sustained IOD index value of -0.4°C or less) is caused by warmer than normal water in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean and cooler than normal water in the tropical western Indian Ocean. A negative IOD period increases the chances of above normal rainfall during winter and spring across southern and much of western and central NSW, as shown in this link. A negative IOD can also contribute to below-average mean sea level pressure over Darwin, which may cause an increase in the SOI.

• A positive IOD period (a sustained IOD index value of +0.4°C or more) is the result of cooler than normal water in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean and warmer than normal water in the tropical western Indian Ocean. Positive IOD periods have been associated with a decrease in rainfall during winter and spring across southern, western and central NSW.

Trade winds and Pacific cloud conditions • Trade winds during May were reversed

across the western and central equatorial Pacific, while remaining near normal in the far east. Trade winds have been consistently weaker than average this year, which has facilitated the warming of the Pacific Ocean sub-surface.

• Easterly trade winds strengthen across the tropical Pacific during La Niña events and weaken or reverse during El Niño events. Weakening of the trade winds allows warmer than normal water to move into the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

• Cloud conditions at the equator near the International Date Line have generally been above average since early March. Cloud conditions at the Date Line-equator junction have decreased in early June, possibly due to the Madden-Julian Oscillation, but have since begun to increase again.

• During May and early June cloud conditions were below average across Indonesia, which tends to occur during El Niño events.

• Cloudiness at the equator near and to the east of the International Date Line decreases during La Niña events and increases during El Niño events.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/cmb.cgi?page=map&variable=mslp&vstatus=anomaly&period=month&area=nat

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/monitoring/poama.iod.small.png

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/model-summary.shtml#tabs=Indian-Ocean





http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/IOD/negative/rg.NIOD_noENSO.hres.gif

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/sst_wind_anom_5day.gif

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/region.ts.dateline.small.gif

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/poama2.4/poama.shtml�



2.7 Other climatic indicators Southern annular mode (SAM) • The experimental Southern Annular Mode or

Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) index is currently weakly negative (as at 14 June).

• The outlook from POAMA (14 June) indicates the SAM index will remain weakly negative till late June, possibly returning to neutral in early July.

• The NOAA outlook suggests a return to near neutral to weakly positive values in late June.

• The SAM has been positive throughout most of the year.

• SAM outlooks tend to be extremely variable, particularly at lead times of two weeks or more, and the skill level for outlooks of 10-21 days tends to be low.

• A negative SAM event indicates an expansion of the belt of strong westerly winds towards the equator, resulting in more or stronger low pressure systems across southern Australia and potentially increased rainfall.

• A positive SAM event indicates the contraction of the belt of strong westerly winds towards Antarctica and higher pressures over southern Australia. During autumn and winter, a positive SAM event can potentially mean a decrease in rainfall across southern Australia. However, a strongly positive SAM in spring and summer can mean southern Australia is influenced by the northern half of high pressure systems, leading to a slightly higher likelihood of increased rainfall over south eastern and central NSW.

3. Rainfall 3.1 Relative rainfall Relative rainfall information is sourced from the AussieGRASS project of the Queensland Department of Science, Information Technology and Innovation (QDSITI) and from the Bureau of Meteorology.

Relative rainfall is calculated by comparing and ranking the rainfall for the current period against that for the same period over every year since 1889 (percentile ranks).

This means that if the current period has a rank of between 30 and 70 against all other years, it is regarded as being “average” and the conditions

experienced will occur over about 4 out of every 10 years.

Summary

Table 7: AussieGRASS rainfall relative to historical records – percentage area of NSW in each class

Period Missing

data Below

Average (0-30%)

Average

(31-70%)

Above Average

(71-100%)

Month 0% 19% 44% 37%

Quarter 0% 3% 73% 24%

Half year 0% 5% 52% 43%

Year 0% 22% 60% 18%

Source: Derived from information supplied by the Queensland Department of Science, Information Technology, and Innovation.

May • Relative to historical records, rainfall for May

was average across 44% of the state and above average across 37% of the state.

• Below average relative rainfall occurred across the far south west, the western and northern Riverina and the far south east.

• Above average rainfall occurred the Northern Tablelands and Hunter LLS districts and areas of the Northern Tablelands, the far north west of Western LLS district and the north of Central West LLS district.

March to May (3 months) • Over the three month period from March to

May, rainfall relative to historical records was average or better over almost all of the state (Figure 20, Table 7).

• Above average relative rainfall occurred across 24% of the state. This included areas of the north, central west and the Illawarra to north coast, across the Greater Sydney, Hunter, North Coast, Northern Tablelands, the north of the Central West and the east of the North West LLS districts.

• Areas of the far west, of Western LLS district, the far north east and far south east of South East LLS district and areas of the Central Tablelands LLS district also received above average relative rainfall for the period.

• Below average relative rainfall for the period occurred across just 3% of NSW. This included an area to the north and north west of Walgett, the north, south west and far south east of the Riverina LLS district and the west the Murray LLS district.

http://www.bom.gov.au/watl/about-weather-and-climate/australian-climate-influences.shtml?bookmark=sam



http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/about/researchprojects/aussiegrass/index.html

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp






• Additional areas of below average relative rainfall occurred across the north west of Central West LLS district, south and west of Deniliquin in the Murray LLS district and areas of the Riverina LLS district.

December to May (6 months) • Over the six months to May, relative rainfall

was average across 52% of NSW, above average across 43% and below average across 5% (Figure 21, Table 7).

• Above average relative rainfall for the period occurred across areas of the far west and the east of the state along the coast, tablelands and slopes.

• An area of below average relative rainfall for the period occurred across north western NSW, between Brewarrina, Walgett, Goodooga, Lightning Ridge, and Collarenebri. Other scattered areas of below average rainfall occurred in the south west, near Hay and south of Balranald and Deniliquin.

June to May (12 months) • Over the twelve months to May, relative

rainfall was average across 60% of NSW, above average across 18% and below average across 22% (Figure 22, Table 7).

• Areas of below average relative rainfall extended across the western half of the North West LLS district and also an area of the Liverpool Plains in the far south east. Below average relative rainfall also occurred across the south and west of the Riverina, the west of Murray and the south east of Western LLS district.

• Above average rainfall was restricted to areas of the South East, Greater Sydney, Hunter and North Coast LLS districts, and an area of Western LLS district to the north of Broken Hill and the west of Wilcannia.

3.2 Total rainfall Total rainfall information is sourced from the AussieGRASS project of the Queensland Department of Science, Information Technology and Innovation and from the Bureau of Meteorology.

May • Overall, NSW received a state-wide rainfall

of 13% below normal during May. • Rainfall was above average across areas of

the far north west and the north east of the state.

• In the south west, western Riverina and areas of the south east over the Monaro, rainfall was below average and ranged from 1-10 mm. Total rainfall across the state ranged from 1-402 mm, with the heaviest rainfall concentrated in the east along the far mid-north to north coast (Figure 23).

• An east coast low caused heavy rainfall across the north coast early in the month, and a cold front and surface trough caused rain and storms in inland and areas of coastal NSW mid-late month.

• The south and areas of the north west of NSW received rainfall of less than 80% of normal for the month (compared to 1961-90). Rainfall across the north coast and areas of far north west was from 100-300% of normal.

March to May (3 months) • Total rainfall over the three months to May

ranged from 25-800 mm over NSW, with most of the State receiving between 50-200 mm (Figure 24).

• The west generally received between 10-50 mm for the period, although areas received 50-100 mm. The western areas of the state generally received 25-100 mm, the central areas between 50-200 mm, although an area of the northern slopes received 200-300 mm. The tablelands and slopes generally received 100-300 mm. Most of the coastal strip and eastern fall from the Illawarra to the north coast received 300-600 mm, with limited areas receiving 600-800 mm The south coast generally received 200-300 mm.

December to May (6 months) • Rainfall across the state during the

December to May period ranged from 50 mm to more than 1,600 mm (Figure 25), with most of NSW receiving between 100-400 mm.

• The western areas of the State generally received 100-200 mm over the period, with 200-400 mm received across the central areas of NSW.

• The tablelands and upper slopes generally received 300-600 mm. The coastal and alpine areas generally received 600-1,200 mm, with the Illawarra to north coast generally receiving 800-1,200 mm. Some areas of the north coast near Coffs Harbour and in the far north east received more than 1,200 mm.






4. Temperature anomalies Temperature information is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology.

The data used to create the temperature anomaly maps in Figure 27 and Figure 28 are slightly different from that used to create the anomaly maps on the Bureau of Meteorology website. The comments below reflect the website maps, which are more accurate, rather than those included in this report. The maps in Figure 27 and Figure 28 are provided for a general assessment only.

• Average daytime temperatures were 0.2°C above normal across NSW during May. The central areas, central tablelands, upper south west slopes, and central to mid-north coast had temperatures of up to 1.0°C below normal, as did areas of the far north west. The remainder of the state had average daytime temperatures of up to 1.0°C above normal for the month.

• Average overnight temperatures were 0.7°C above normal across NSW during May. Overnight temperatures were generally 1.0°C cooler than normal in the south, near normal across northern and central NSW and 1.0-2.0°C warmer across the Hunter valley and northern central west. The remainder of the state had average overnight temperatures of 0-1.0°C above normal for the month.

5. Relative soil moisture Soil moisture information is sourced from the joint CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP).

The soil moisture maps presented in Figure 29 and Figure 30 show the average monthly soil moisture content for the topsoil and subsoil, as a proportion of its saturated capacity.

Monthly soil moisture levels relative to historical records (percentile ranks) are shown in Figure 31 and Figure 32. These percentile rank products use a relatively short comparative period of 1961-1990, which may result in large fluctuations in values from month to month.

5.1 Summary

Table 8: AWAP average monthly relative soil moisture (fraction) – percentage area of NSW in each class

Layer Low (0-0.3)

Moderate (0.3-0.7)

High (0.7-1.0)

Topsoil 62% 35% 3%

Subsoil 53% 35% 12%

Source: Derived from information supplied by CSIRO and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

5.2 Topsoil • Modelled topsoil moisture levels improved

across much of western NSW during May, but were still in the lowest 30% of values relative to a saturated profile. Levels remained low in the western and central Riverina and areas of the south. In central NSW, levels declined somewhat in the west, but were generally maintained in the east. Levels across the tablelands and areas of the slopes remained relatively stable. In the south east, modelled topsoil moisture declined slightly. Levels were maintained or improved along the coastal strip from the Illawarra to the north coast. (Figure 29).

• Modelled topsoil moisture levels across 62% of the state were in the lowest 30% of values, relative to a saturated profile, in comparison to 58% in April.

• Over north western NSW and some central and western areas of Western LLS district, modelled topsoil moisture levels were in the lowest 20% of values.

• Overall, 35% of NSW had moderate topsoil moisture (averaged over the month, relative to a saturated profile), a fall from 41% in April (Figure 29, Table 8).

• On a percentile rank basis (Figure 31), topsoil moisture was generally average or above across most of the state for the month. Areas of the coast and adjacent tablelands from the Illawarra north generally had above average to well above average soil moisture. Areas of the central and western Riverina LLS district and in the central areas of the Murray LLS district had below average topsoil moisture, as did areas in the south east of the Western LLS district between Ivanhoe and Balranald, and in the north east around Bourke.

• Total topsoil moisture levels were less than 40 mm across most of western and central NSW. The central and western areas of Murray and Riverina LLS districts had levels

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp



http://www.csiro.au/awap/


http://www.bom.gov.au/



of 20-40 mm. Over the central and southern tablelands levels were generally between 40-80 mm. The northern tablelands had levels of generally 20-100 mm. Over most of the coastal strip from the Illawarra to the lower north coast, levels varied from 60-200 mm. The far south and far north coast had levels of 40-80 mm.

5.3 Subsoil • Modelled subsoil moisture levels were

generally stable during May. Levels improved along the coast and in the alpine areas but remained low in areas of the north and west, including the western edge of North West, Central West, Riverina and Murray LLS districts (Figure 30, Table 8). Some 53% of the State was in the lowest 30% of values, relative to a saturated profile.

• The lowest modelled subsoil moisture levels were in the north east, east and south of the Western LLS district, the west and south east of the North West LLS district, the north of the Central West and the west of Riverina and Murray LLS districts.

• Moderate levels of modelled subsoil moisture occurred across most of the tablelands, northern slopes and south west slopes. Moderate levels also occurred in the west of the Western LLS district, the south east of Central West, and the east of Riverina and the Murray LLS districts. Subsoil moisture levels were high across much of the coast and the alpine areas.

• On a percentile rank basis (Figure 32), subsoil moisture remained below average across the western half and Liverpool plains area of North West LLS district, the north east of Western, the central area of Northern Tablelands, the south of Central Tablelands, the west of Murray and the south and west of the Riverina LLS districts. Areas of low relative subsoil moisture also occurred in the north and south west of Central West LLS district. Relative subsoil moisture was extremely low across areas of the north west and between Hay and Griffith.

• Areas of above average percentile ranked subsoil moisture occurred across areas of the far west, central coast, north coast and far south east.

• Total modelled subsoil moisture for the month was generally 50-200 mm across the western and central areas of the State, with levels of 200-300 mm in the far west. Areas of the north west and far south west had levels of less than 50 mm. Most of the

coastal areas had modelled subsoil moisture levels of 200-500 mm.

6. Pasture growth and biomass Pasture growth and biomass information is primarily sourced from the AussieGRASS project of the Queensland Department of Science, Information Technology and Innovation and is used under licence.

The modelled total pasture growth and biomass levels should be used with some caution in the higher rainfall areas of NSW such as across the upper slopes, tablelands and coast. The pasture growth model is not as well calibrated for these areas as for the rangelands, plains and lower slopes.

Alternative pasture growth information is generated using the Growest model of the Fenner School of the Australian National University, with input data from the Australian Water Availability Project. Growth is generated for temperate grasses and legumes (C3 mesotherms) and tropical grasses (C4 megatherms). Growest is a simpler model than than GRASP, which is used to generate the AussieGRASS products. Initial assessments indicate it has some advantages over the AussieGRASS products for the upper slopes, tablelands and coast. However, there have been some calibration issues. Output is provided as an index from 0-1, rather than amounts of dry matter per hectare and is also converted to percentile ranks. Only monthly products are being generated at this stage. Maps of the products have not currently been included as the products are still undergoing development.

6.1 Pasture growth outlook Growth outlooks are based on modelled pasture and soil moisture conditions, modelled soil nitrogen levels and the phase of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) over the last one to two months.

The SOI phase is used to determine the likelihood of rainfall over the next three months, and is often different to the outlook from the Bureau of Meteorology POAMA model.

Growth outlooks are based on the probability of pasture growth over the next three months exceeding the long term (post 1957) median value.

The growth outlooks have varying levels of skill across NSW. As a result, they should be used with some caution. Skill levels are particularly low in autumn.


http://fennerschool.anu.edu.au/



http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/rainfallprobability/index.php



• The pasture growth outlook for June to August is extremely variable. It suggests somewhat above average growth is possible over the period for the coast, tablelands, central west and Hunter valley.

• Below average growth is possible for most of the north west, the north west of the northern tablelands and much of the southern and south eastern areas of the far west.

• The outlook for growth across the Riverina, south and far south eastern NSW is variable. Below average growth is possible in the far western and northern/central areas of the Riverina.

• Skill levels are moderate to high in most of these areas, but the outlook for areas of the Hunter valley, central west, far north west and south east has low skill.

• The outlook is based a rapidly falling SOI in April/May, and a probability of below average rainfall across much of inland NSW and above average rainfall across coastal NSW during June to August.

6.2 Modelled pasture growth AussieGRASS modelled growth • Modelled pasture growth improved or was

maintained across central NSW and areas of southern NSW during May. Growth declined across areas of the western and central Riverina LLS district and areas of the south west of Murray and the south of Western LLS district (Figure 33).

• Across the Western LLS district, growth generally ranged 20-100 kg of dry matter (DM) per hectare. The exceptions were areas of the far north west and areas of the south, where growth was less than 20 kg DM/ha. In the far south of Western LLS district, growth was variable but generally ranged from 100-500 kg DM/ha. Across central NSW, levels were generally between 100-500 kg DM/ha. Levels along the northern plains, upper slopes and tablelands were mostly in excess of 200-500 kg DM/ha.

• Across the coastal areas and Monaro, modelled growth was low. However, this is most likely due to poor model calibration in these areas (as Growest modelled growth in these areas was moderate to high, being average to above average).

• Note that the AussieGRASS modelled pasture growth output is best calibrated for the rangelands, plains and lower slopes. It is not as well calibrated for upper slopes, tablelands and coastal areas.

• Note that the modelled growth does not take waterlogging of low lying areas into account.

Growest modelled growth • The temperate pasture growth index for May

indicated moderate to high growth across the North Coast, Greater Sydney and most of the Hunter LLS district. Growth was also moderate across along the coastal strip of the South East LLS district, the north east and north west of Northern Tablelands, areas of central/eastern Central West and the far north east of the North West LLS districts. Growth was generally low across the remainder of the State, particularly in the western and southern areas.

• Relative to historical records, temperate pasture growth was above average to well above average across most of northern and eastern NSW, including most of the central west, tablelands, Monaro, Hunter valley and coast. Relative growth was also above average across the east of Murray LLS district, but was below average across areas of the far south west. Relative growth across the coastal strip of the North Coast LLS district, the west of Murray and the majority of Riverina LLS district was mostly average.

• Note that the modelled growth does not take waterlogging of low lying areas into account.

6.2 Modelled biomass • Modelled total standing dry matter (biomass)

levels remained similar to April, with some declines across the east. Modelled biomass remained low across much of central and western NSW and along the coast.

• Modelled biomass levels across the northern and central/eastern areas of the Western LLS district, Central West LLS district and all but the north east of the North West LLS district (Figure 34) were generally less than 500 kg of dry matter (DM)/ha, and in many areas were less than 250 kg DM/ha.

• Modelled biomass across the Riverina and Murray LLS districts were also generally less than 1,000 kg DM/ha, with most areas being less than 250 kg DM/ha. Modelled biomass across the Northern Tablelands, Central Tablelands, South East, Greater Sydney, Hunter and North Coast LLS districts ranged from 250-1,000 kg DM/ha, with most areas having less than 500 kg DM/ha.

• Note that the AussieGRASS modelled biomass output is best calibrated for the rangelands, plains and lower slopes. It is not



as well calibrated for upper slopes, tablelands and coastal areas.

6.4 Relative pasture growth AussieGRASS relative pasture growth and biomass are calculated by comparing and ranking the current modelled growth and biomass against that for the same period over every year since 1957 (percentile ranks).

This means that if the current period has a rank of between 30 to 70 against all other years, it is regarded as being “average” and the conditions experienced will occur over about 4 out of every 10 years.

Relative monthly pasture growth should be compared to modelled pasture growth for interpretation. ‘Average’ levels of relative growth may correlate with modelled levels (in kg/ha) that are quite low or high at certain times of year.

Summary

Table 9: AussieGRASS pasture growth and biomass relative to historical records – percentage area of NSW in each class

Period No

Data

Below Average (0-30%)

Average

(31-70%)

Above Average (71-100%)

Other

Growth

Month 13% 12% 47% 27% 1%

Quarter 3% 22% 53% 21% 1%

Half Year 1% 17% 51% 30% 1%

Year 0% 33% 49% 17% 1%

Biomass

Month 0% 24% 47% 28% 1%

Source: Derived from information supplied by the Queensland Department of Science, Information Technology and Innovation.

May • Relative pasture growth during May was

similar to April across eastern and areas of central and western NSW. The area of below average growth increased from 6% in April to 12% in May (Table 9, Figure 35).

• Relative growth declined across areas of the west and north of the Riverina LLS district, and the west of the Murray LLS district. Areas in the west of North West LLS district remained low to average.

• Most of Western LLS district had average relative growth, with declines between Ivanhoe and Hillston. Relative growth across the tablelands, northern slopes, areas of the central west, south west slopes and far south

was average to above average. Relative growth across the coast and Monaro was mostly average.

March to May (3 months) • Over the quarter to May, relative growth was

average to above average across much of the tablelands, areas of the far west of NSW and areas of the south.

• Relative growth for the period was below average across areas of the north west, the north western and western Riverina, much of the south east and areas of the north and north east of western NSW. The remainder of central and western NSW had average relative growth. Relative growth across much of the central to north coast was generally average. Over the period, relative growth was average or better across 74% of the state and below average over 22% (Table 9, Figure 36).

December to May (6 months) • Over the six month period from December to

May, relative pasture growth improved across the tablelands, slopes, south east, south and areas of the northern slopes and plains.

• Relative growth improved from below average to average across the west of the Central West LLS district. Relative growth remained below average across the west and south of the North West LLS district, and in the Liverpool Plains area. Relative growth was below average across areas of the Riverina LLS district, as well as the east and north of Western LLS district. Relative growth remained average across most of the central to north coast and improved across the south coast and Monaro. An area of above average growth also occurred in Western LLS district between Broken Hill, Wilcannia and Tibooburra.

• Relative growth over the period was average or above over 81% of the state (Table 9, Figure 37), and above average over 30% of the state. Below average relative growth occurred across 17% of NSW.

June to May (12 months) • Yearly relative growth deteriorated slightly

from the period to the end of May, with more of the western and southern areas of the state having below average growth. Yearly relative growth was average or above across 66% of the state (Table 9, Figure 38), with 49% having average relative growth. Below average relative growth for the period





covered 33% of the area of the State and extended across 52% of the North West LLS district, 51% of Riverina, 37% of Western and 35% of Murray LLS districts. Between Walgett, Lightning Ridge and Goodooga relative growth was extremely low (relative growth in the lowest 10% of years). Areas of average to above average growth occurred in across the tablelands, Monaro, areas of the upper slopes and south coast.

6.5 Relative biomass Relative monthly biomass should be compared to modelled biomass for interpretation. “Average” levels of relative biomass may correlate with modelled levels (in kg/ha) that are quite low or high at certain times of year.

• Relative biomass levels were generally similar between April and May, except for a decline in the western and northern Riverina and the east of Western NSW. Across much of the north coast, Hunter, central and northern tablelands, northern slopes, central west, far south and eastern Riverina relative biomass was above average. Relative biomass remained low across the north west and much of the western Riverina. About 24% of NSW had below average relative biomass levels, and 75% average or better relative biomass levels (Table 9, Figure 39).

7. Streamflow, water storage and irrigation allocations Streamflow information is sourced from experimental products of the AussieGRASS project and from the Bureau of Meteorology. Irrigation allocations and storage levels are sourced from the NSW Office of Water. Comments on farm water supplies are sourced from Local Land Services.

7.1 Streamflow • Streamflow analysis indicated below average

run off over much of northern and central NSW, the north and east of the far west, the tablelands, the upper Hunter valley and the Riverina. Run off was average or better over much of the coast, Monaro and areas of the far west. Farm water supplies are low in many areas, with some areas critically low.

• The Bureau of Meteorology's streamflow forecast indicates near median streamflows are likely across south eastern Australia during June to August. Above median streamflow is likely in the north east of NSW, median in the Hunter, above median in the Sydney region, but below median across

much of the south. High May streamflows were recorded at some coastal locations.

7.2 Storage levels Storage levels are shown as at 1 June 2015 and are compared to those at 7 May in Figure 9.

• Levels in water storages were generally low-moderate, with the average capacity being 42%. The largest increases were at Lake Wetherell (14%) and Hume (5%) and Burrinjuck (2%) Dams. The largest decrease was at Lake Cargelligo (-11%) (Figure 9).

7.3 Irrigation allocations Allocations are given as at 1 June 2015.

• General security allocations remained unchanged from May (Table 10).

Table 10: Irrigation allocations

River valley Allocation Licence category

NSW Border Rivers* 67.1% General security A

Class

0% General security B Class

100% High security Richmond 100% General security 100% High security Gwydir* 0% General security 100% High security Hunter 100% General security 100% High security Paterson 100% General security 100% High security Lachlan* 0% General security 100% High security Belubula* 0% General security 100% High security Lower Darling* 100% General security 100% High security Macquarie and Cudgegong* 2% General security

100% High security Murray* 61% General security 97% High security Murrumbidgee* 51% General security 95% High security Lower Namoi* 0% General security 100% High security Upper Namoi* 100% General security 100% High security Peel 0% General security 50% High security Bega Brogo 70% General security 100% High security *Carry over water may be available


http://www.bom.gov.au/water/ssf/

http://www.water.nsw.gov.au/

http://www.lls.nsw.gov.au/



http://realtimedata.water.nsw.gov.au/water.stm?ppbm=STORAGE_SITE&da&3&dakm_url

http://www.water.nsw.gov.au/Water-management/Water-availability/Water-allocations/water-allocations-summary/default.aspx



Figure 9: Capacity of storages



8. Appendix Maps and data used in the production of this report.

Seasonal rainfall and temperature outlook

Figure 10: Quarterly rainfall outlook

Figure 11: Quarterly maximum temperature outlook



Figure 12: Quarterly minimum temperature outlook

Figure 13: Outlook skill maps



Month 1 rainfall & temperature outlook

Figure 14: Month 1 rainfall outlook

Figure 15: Month 1 maximum temperature outlook



Figure 16: Month 1 minimum temperature outlook

Figure 17: Month 1 outlook skill maps



Month 2 rainfall & temperature outlook (Bureau of Meteorology, POAMA) Note – Operational Bureau of Meteorology month 2 outlook maps will be available in the near future.

Figure 18: Month 2 rainfall and temperature outlooks

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/overview/summary



Rainfall

Figure 19: Relative rainfall – monthly

Figure 20: Relative rainfall – quarterly



Figure 21: Relative rainfall – half yearly

Figure 22: Relative rainfall – yearly



Figure 23: Total rainfall – monthly

Figure 24: Total rainfall – quarterly



Figure 25: Total rainfall – half yearly

Figure 26: Total rainfall – yearly



Temperature Note - The data used to create the temperature anomaly maps in Figure 27 and Figure 28 are slightly different from that used to create the anomaly maps on the Bureau of Meteorology website. The website maps are more accurate and should be used in preference.

Figure 27: Maximum monthly temperature anomaly

Figure 28: Minimum monthly temperature anomaly




Soil moisture

Figure 29: Relative monthly topsoil moisture (fraction of a saturated profile)

Figure 30: Relative monthly subsoil moisture (fraction of a saturated profile)



Figure 31: Relative monthly topsoil moisture (percent rank)

Figure 32: Relative monthly subsoil moisture (percent rank)



Pasture growth and biomass

Figure 33: Modelled pasture growth

Figure 34: Modelled pasture biomass



Figure 35: Relative pasture growth – monthly

Figure 36: Relative pasture growth – quarterly



Figure 37: Relative pasture growth – half yearly

Figure 38: Relative pasture growth – yearly



Figure 39: Relative biomass – monthly

Figure 40: Mean winter/spring rainfall deciles for twelve moderate to strong El Niño events


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ninocomp.shtml



More information

For more information, contact the NSW Department of Primary Industries on 02 6391 3100 or Local Land Services on 1300 795 299.

The Seasonal Conditions Summary, a shortened version of this document, is available at http://www.dpi.nsw.gov.au/agriculture/emergency/seasonal-conditions/regional-seasonal-conditions-reports. A link to join the Seasonal Conditions mailing list is also available at that site.

A four-page simplified summary of the seasonal outlook and the current conditions is provided in the NSW Climate Summary, available at www.dpi.nsw.gov.au/agriculture/emergency/seasonal-conditions/summary.

Acknowledgments Information used in this report was sourced from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO, the Queensland Department of Science, Information Technology and Innovation, the Australian Export Grains Innovation Centre, the Queensland Alliance for Agriculture and Food Innovation, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. Department of Commerce, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (Columbia University), the UK Meteorological Office, the APEC Climate Centre, NSW Local Land Services and NSW Department of Primary Industries.

Warning Recognising that some of the information in this document is provided by third parties, the State of New South Wales, the author and the publisher take no responsibility for the accuracy, currency, reliability and correctness of any information included in the document provided by third parties.

© State of New South Wales through the Department of Trade and Investment, Regional Infrastructure and Services, 2015. You may copy, distribute and otherwise freely deal with this publication for any purpose, provided that you attribute the NSW Department of Primary Industries as the owner.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this publication is based on knowledge and understanding at the time of writing (June 2015). However, because of advances in knowledge, users are reminded of the need to ensure that information upon which they rely is up to date and to check currency of the information with the appropriate officer of the Department of Primary Industries or the user’s independent adviser.

Published by the Department of Primary Industries.

ISSN 2202-1795 (Online)

PUB15/232

Volume 3/Number 5

Jobtrack 12948

http://www.dpi.nsw.gov.au/agriculture/emergency/seasonal-conditions/regional-seasonal-conditions-reports

http://www.dpi.nsw.gov.au/agriculture/emergency/seasonal-conditions/regional-seasonal-conditions-reports

http://www.dpi.nsw.gov.au/agriculture/emergency/seasonal-conditions/summary

nsw seasonal conditions report - june 2015 · outlook information was up to date as at 15 june...

Documents