NSF Program Update

Astronomy & Astrophysics Advisory Astronomy & Astrophysics Advisory CommitteeCommittee

11 May 200611 May 2006

Update Topics

FY2006 Current PlanFY2006 Current Plan FY2007 RequestFY2007 Request ALMA Rebaselining and Cost to CompleteALMA Rebaselining and Cost to Complete

Impact of FY2007?Impact of FY2007? Implications for MREFC Entries?Implications for MREFC Entries?

• FY2006 Request $198.64M (FY2005 + 1.81%)

• Increases for Physics of the Universe and facilities stewardship (MPS priorities)

• FY2006 Appropriation - NSF request + ~1% increase for R&RA

• Rescission of 1.28% - resulting AST budget ~$199.65M (relative to $195.1M in FY2005)

• ‘recommended’ $51.4M budget for NRAO

- $4M over request

- must be found within existing program budgets

AST FY2006 Budget

Facilities

NOAO NSO

Gemini1

NRAO

NAIC

UROs

AST FY2006 Budget

$25.0 M

$10.0M

$18.5 M

$47.4 M

$10.6 M

$8.0 M

Request - $119.5M Plan - $122.0M

$24.55 M

$10.0 M

$18.26 M

$50.74M

$10.46 M

$8.0 M

1Includes $1M Chilean buy-back

Astronomy Research & Instrumentation -

• Request - $79.1 M

- up 4% from FY2005

- increase directed primarily toward Physics of the Universe

• Current Plan - $77.6 M- ‘additional’ funds allocated above request directed toward Physics of the Universe

- source of funds for NRAO earmark

-ATI program new awards curtailed (4 of 36 proposals funded)

- Includes $4M for LSST and $2M for GSMT TDP

- Includes ‘cyberinfrastructure’ funds for NVO start

AST FY2006 Budget

FY2007 Request for AST $215.11M (FY2006 + 7.7% or $15.5M)

• Facilities base operations budgets held level pending outcome of senior review

• Increases for:

- GSMT ($5M, up $3M)

- TSIP ($4M, up $2M)

- AODP ($1.5M, restored)

- Physics of the Universe activities enhanced

- Elementary Particle Physics - dark energy, dark matter studies (with Physics Division)

- Research grants programs up overall

- Gemini future instrumentation

FY2007 Budget Request

MPS by DivisionMPS by Division

FY 2004 Actuals

FY 2005 Actuals

Change from

04 to 05

FY 2006 Current

Plan

Change from

05 to 06FY 2007 Request

Change from

06 to 07AST 196.63 195.11 -0.8% 199.65 2.3% 215.11 7.7%CHE 185.12 179.26 -3.2% 180.78 0.8% 191.10 5.7%DMR 250.65 240.09 -4.2% 242.91 1.2% 257.45 6.0%DMS 200.35 200.24 -0.1% 199.30 -0.5% 205.74 3.2%PHY 227.77 224.86 -1.3% 233.13 3.7% 248.50 6.6%OMA 31.07 29.80 -4.1% 29.68 -0.4% 32.40 9.2%Total, MPS 1,091.59 1,069.36 -2.0% 1085.45 1.5% 1150.30 6.0%

R&RA 4293.34 4234.82 -1.4% 4,331.48 2.3% 4,665.95 7.7%

NSF 5652.01 5480.78 -3.0% 5,581.17 1.8% 6,020.21 7.9%

(Dollars in Millions)

MPS Ten-Year Funding MPS Ten-Year Funding HistoryHistory

MPS Subactivity Funding(Dollars in Millions)

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07

AST CHE DMR DMS PHY OMA

MPS Ten-Year Funding MPS Ten-Year Funding HistoryHistory

MPS Subactivity Funding

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07

AST CHE DMR DMS PHY OMA

Some ALMA Milestones: 2002-2006 U.S. construction begins (2/02) – Congressional actionU.S. construction begins (2/02) – Congressional action Signature of ALMA Agreement and start of bilateral construction (2/03)Signature of ALMA Agreement and start of bilateral construction (2/03) ESO construction begins (1/03)ESO construction begins (1/03) Staffing of Joint ALMA Office (2003-2004; continuing)Staffing of Joint ALMA Office (2003-2004; continuing) Groundbreaking on Chilean site (11/03)Groundbreaking on Chilean site (11/03) U.S. and ESO initiate antenna procurement (12/03)U.S. and ESO initiate antenna procurement (12/03) Japan joins expanded partnership (9/04)Japan joins expanded partnership (9/04) Bilateral project initiates rebaselining (12/04)Bilateral project initiates rebaselining (12/04) All Chilean agreements completed (12/04)All Chilean agreements completed (12/04) U.S. antenna contract signed (7/05)U.S. antenna contract signed (7/05) Revised baseline delivered (9/05)Revised baseline delivered (9/05) Baseline Review – Beckwith panel (10/05)Baseline Review – Beckwith panel (10/05) ESO antenna contract signed (12/05)ESO antenna contract signed (12/05) ESO antenna transporter contract signed (12/05)ESO antenna transporter contract signed (12/05) Delta Review – Beckwith panel (1/06)Delta Review – Beckwith panel (1/06) North American Review – Hartill panel (1/06)North American Review – Hartill panel (1/06) NSF Director’s Review (3/06)NSF Director’s Review (3/06)

ALMA Project All three developed regions of the world are participating:All three developed regions of the world are participating:

Americas: North America (US, Canada) + Chile [Host Country]Americas: North America (US, Canada) + Chile [Host Country] Europe: through European Southern Observatory (ESO)Europe: through European Southern Observatory (ESO) Asia: (Japan) [Managed outside the core bilateral project]Asia: (Japan) [Managed outside the core bilateral project]

Key featuresKey features Radio telescope array – core of 50 12-meter telescopesRadio telescope array – core of 50 12-meter telescopes Sensitive, precision imaging between 30 and 950 GHzSensitive, precision imaging between 30 and 950 GHz Located in Chile; high (5000 meters), dry siteLocated in Chile; high (5000 meters), dry site

Key science capabilitiesKey science capabilities Image proto-planetary disksImage proto-planetary disks Image galaxies to z = 10, Milky Way to z = 3Image galaxies to z = 10, Milky Way to z = 3

10-100 times more sensitive and 10-100 times 10-100 times more sensitive and 10-100 times

better angular resolution compared to better angular resolution compared to

current mm/submm telescopescurrent mm/submm telescopes

Rebaselining - I Timing:Timing:

Rebaselining planned since full project was initiated (2/03)Rebaselining planned since full project was initiated (2/03) Timing dependent on development of partnership and JAOTiming dependent on development of partnership and JAO Began late 2004, new baseline(s) delivered to ALMA Board Began late 2004, new baseline(s) delivered to ALMA Board

September 2005September 2005

Why:Why: Partnerships not fully formed when construction was initiated Partnerships not fully formed when construction was initiated

Complexity – and cost – of partnership of equals not clearly understoodComplexity – and cost – of partnership of equals not clearly understood Management system for common elements of project not fully developedManagement system for common elements of project not fully developed

Early concerns:Early concerns: Period of rapid increase in commodity prices, and costs in ChilePeriod of rapid increase in commodity prices, and costs in Chile Antennas much more expensive than initially estimated by project Antennas much more expensive than initially estimated by project andand

vendorsvendors Project Management Control System requiredProject Management Control System required

Rebaselining - II

Main Initial Results:Main Initial Results:

Antenna number must be reduced in order to control Antenna number must be reduced in order to control costscosts

U.S. cost for a 50-element array grew by about 40% U.S. cost for a 50-element array grew by about 40% relative to original estimate relative to original estimate

Schedule to complete is not greatly delayed Schedule to complete is not greatly delayed (due to reduced antenna number) (due to reduced antenna number)

Additional cost savings proposed to ALMA Board Additional cost savings proposed to ALMA Board (subsequently approved)(subsequently approved)

Early science will slipEarly science will slip

Some ALMA Milestones: 2002-2006 U.S. construction begins (2/02) – Congressional actionU.S. construction begins (2/02) – Congressional action Signature of ALMA Agreement and start of bilateral construction (2/03)Signature of ALMA Agreement and start of bilateral construction (2/03) ESO construction begins (1/03)ESO construction begins (1/03) Staffing of Joint ALMA Office (2003-2004; continuing)Staffing of Joint ALMA Office (2003-2004; continuing) Groundbreaking on Chilean site (11/03)Groundbreaking on Chilean site (11/03) U.S. and ESO initiate antenna procurement (12/03)U.S. and ESO initiate antenna procurement (12/03) Japan joins expanded partnership (9/04)Japan joins expanded partnership (9/04) Bilateral project initiates rebaselining (12/04)Bilateral project initiates rebaselining (12/04) All Chilean agreements completed (12/04)All Chilean agreements completed (12/04) U.S. antenna contract signed (7/05)U.S. antenna contract signed (7/05) Revised baseline delivered (9/05)Revised baseline delivered (9/05) Baseline Review – Beckwith panel (10/05)Baseline Review – Beckwith panel (10/05) ESO antenna contract signed (12/05)ESO antenna contract signed (12/05) ESO antenna transporter contract signed (12/05)ESO antenna transporter contract signed (12/05) Delta Review – Beckwith panel (1/06)Delta Review – Beckwith panel (1/06) North American Review – Hartill panel (1/06)North American Review – Hartill panel (1/06) NSF Director’s Review (3/06)NSF Director’s Review (3/06)

Four Reviews of New Baseline

I.I. National Academy CAA + ASAC scope studies: National Academy CAA + ASAC scope studies:

-- -- Can NCan NANT ANT be reduced below 64 and maintain the science?be reduced below 64 and maintain the science? II.II. ALMA Board review + delta review: “Beckwith Panel”ALMA Board review + delta review: “Beckwith Panel”III.III. NSF review of North American project: “Hartill Panel”NSF review of North American project: “Hartill Panel”IV.IV. NSF Director’s Review (internal): Synthesis of previous NSF Director’s Review (internal): Synthesis of previous

reviews and decision on whether to proceed with ALMAreviews and decision on whether to proceed with ALMA

II & III: Complementary reviews with similar core charges:

Validate proposed new project baseline for construction and operations as a precondition for assessing whether the project should be continued; Help determine the correct scope and cost of the rebaselined project; Provide confidence that the project rests on a sound organizational basis; Provided confidence that the proposed budget and schedule to complete are sound and that both have adequate contingency; Assess whether ALMA is appropriately staffed to carry out construction and transition to operations.

Beckwith and Hartill Panel Reviews

ALMA is technically ready and remains exceptionally ALMA is technically ready and remains exceptionally promising; no obvious technical show-stoppers promising; no obvious technical show-stoppers

Can be built to stated costs Can be built to stated costs New baseline is complete, correctly costedNew baseline is complete, correctly costed Cost growth is understood, containedCost growth is understood, contained Management structure and oversight is robust Management structure and oversight is robust

(complexity is necessary) and working well(complexity is necessary) and working well ALMA Board must continue stepping up to ownership of ALMA Board must continue stepping up to ownership of

project – it is the only entity that can do so.project – it is the only entity that can do so. Critical to manage schedule – no slippageCritical to manage schedule – no slippage Operations plan is mature for the present stage of the Operations plan is mature for the present stage of the

project, but should be pushed further quickly [In process]project, but should be pushed further quickly [In process]

Director’s Review

MPS/AST joint with BFA/LFPMPS/AST joint with BFA/LFP Review the reviewsReview the reviews Major goals:Major goals:

Continue with ALMA?Continue with ALMA? Basis of participation? (Basis of participation? ( Antenna number?) Antenna number?) Is contingency adequate? Is contingency adequate?

Director’s Review – Project

Status Rebaselining completed.Rebaselining completed.

Reviewed and verified by external reviewsReviewed and verified by external reviews Underlying causes of cost escalation identified and addressedUnderlying causes of cost escalation identified and addressed ““Technically ready and scientifically compelling”; “No Technically ready and scientifically compelling”; “No

unidentified scope”unidentified scope” Cost containment, refinement of baseline, and management Cost containment, refinement of baseline, and management

enhancements had continued since delivery of new enhancements had continued since delivery of new baseline:baseline: Careful scrubbing: ~$20M(/2) savingsCareful scrubbing: ~$20M(/2) savings Signing of antenna contracts retired greatest risksSigning of antenna contracts retired greatest risks Downstream cost of two different antennas to the construction and Downstream cost of two different antennas to the construction and

operations projects found to be small: <$8M(/2)operations projects found to be small: <$8M(/2) Chilean labor issue resolvedChilean labor issue resolved

Director’s Review: Why 50 Antennas?

Cost/overall benefit/risk is the core issueCost/overall benefit/risk is the core issue The original ALMA science remains within reach with a 50-The original ALMA science remains within reach with a 50-

element baseline (albeit with longer integration times)element baseline (albeit with longer integration times) Capabilities vary with Capabilities vary with NN22 Maximizes redundancy and minimizes phase coherence loss at the Maximizes redundancy and minimizes phase coherence loss at the

highest frequencies and longest baselines highest frequencies and longest baselines Comparison of 50 to 40Comparison of 50 to 40

~60% faster data taking, 25% more collecting area than a 40-element ~60% faster data taking, 25% more collecting area than a 40-element arrayarray

For a reduction of 8.6% in total cost, retain only 62% of capacity For a reduction of 8.6% in total cost, retain only 62% of capacity Partnership weakened and U.S. marginalized if we buy 20

antennas: ESO has already decided on a 25-antenna contract

Cannot change our mind later Cost to re-open assembly line is prohibitive

Confidence for Moving Ahead Quality of key personnel in Joint ALMA Office (JAO) and Quality of key personnel in Joint ALMA Office (JAO) and

North American OfficeNorth American Office Transfer of key elements of the project to JAO control Transfer of key elements of the project to JAO control Project management control system now operatingProject management control system now operating Contingency at 25% of cost to completeContingency at 25% of cost to complete Plans for regular reviews Plans for regular reviews Continuing reform of ALMA BoardContinuing reform of ALMA Board

Empowerment of JAO; requiring JAO accountabilityEmpowerment of JAO; requiring JAO accountability Budget and Personnel committeesBudget and Personnel committees Management and Science Advisory CommitteesManagement and Science Advisory Committees Taking ownership of the projectTaking ownership of the project Commitment to resolve partnership issuesCommitment to resolve partnership issues

Management enhancements at NSFManagement enhancements at NSF Enhanced interaction among relevant NSF parties Enhanced interaction among relevant NSF parties Regular interaction between AD/MPS and President of ESO CouncilRegular interaction between AD/MPS and President of ESO Council

Overview of Rebaselined U.S. Cost and Schedule: 50-element ALMA

U.S. CostU.S. Cost TotalTotal rebaselined cost: $499M rebaselined cost: $499M +45% increase +45% increase

Original: $344MOriginal: $344M Rebaselined cost: $478MRebaselined cost: $478M Additional contingency: $18M + $3MAdditional contingency: $18M + $3M

Cost ContainmentCost Containment Scope reduction: 64 to 50 antennasScope reduction: 64 to 50 antennas New partner likely New partner likely Manage contingencyManage contingency

ScheduleSchedule Original Completion: 2011Original Completion: 2011 Revised Completion: U.S. and ESO both spent out in FY 2012Revised Completion: U.S. and ESO both spent out in FY 2012

FY2007 Request MREFC Runout

FY 2005 Actual

FY 20061

Current Plan

FY 2007 Request

FY 2008 Estimate

FY 2009 Estimate

FY 2010 Estimate

FY 2011 Estimate

FY 2012 Estimate

Ongoing ProjectsALMA 49.30 45.14 47.89 47.07 37.37 20.98EarthScope 44.80 46.40 27.40IceCube 48.10 46.25 28.65 22.38 11.33 0.95NEON 12.00 12.00 20.00 30.00 26.00SODV 6.08 53.09 42.88SPSM 16.86 9.13DOJ Judgment 3.00New StartsARRV 56.00 42.00OOI 13.50 48.00 77.00 78.00 53.00 40.00AdvLIGO - 28.48 42.81 46.31 36.25 22.90

Totals $165.14 $190.88 $240.45 $199.93 $188.51 $176.24 $115.25 $62.90

MREFC Account Funding(Dollars in Millions)

Totals may not add due to rounding.Estimates for FY 2008 and beyond do not reflect policy decisions and are presented for planning purposes only.1The FY 2006 Current Plan excludes $45.68 million carried forward from previous years. This includes an unobligatedbalance of $14.88 million from FY 2005 distributed pro rata among ALMA, EarthScope, IceCube and SODV; and anadditional carryover of $2.17 million for EarthScope, $6.59 million for IceCube, $8.80 million for SODV, and $13.17million for SPSM.

FY 2007 Request MREFC Runout – ALMA Impact?

FY 2005 Actual

FY 20061

Current Plan

FY 2007 Request

FY 2008 Estimate

FY 2009 Estimate

FY 2010 Estimate

FY 2011 Estimate

FY 2012 Estimate

Ongoing ProjectsALMA 49.30 45.14 47.89 47.07 37.37 20.98ALMA Increase 17.38 55.00 36.38 26.78 21.44 3.00EarthScope 44.80 46.40 27.40IceCube 48.10 46.25 28.65 22.38 11.33 0.95NEON 12.00 12.00 20.00 30.00 26.00SODV 6.08 53.09 42.88SPSM 16.86 9.13DOJ Judgment 3.00New StartsARRV 56.00 42.00OOI 13.50 48.00 77.00 78.00 53.00 40.00AdvLIGO - 28.48 42.81 46.31 36.25 22.90

Totals $165.14 $190.88 $257.83 $254.93 $224.89 $203.02 $136.69 $65.90

MREFC Account Funding(Dollars in Millions)

Totals may not add due to rounding.Estimates for FY 2008 and beyond do not reflect policy decisions and are presented for planning purposes only.1The FY 2006 Current Plan excludes $45.68 million carried forward from previous years. This includes an unobligatedbalance of $14.88 million from FY 2005 distributed pro rata among ALMA, EarthScope, IceCube and SODV; and anadditional carryover of $2.17 million for EarthScope, $6.59 million for IceCube, $8.80 million for SODV, and $13.17million for SPSM.

Operating budgets and grant increments to realize the Decadal Survey recommendations

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