nptel.ac.in_courses_iit-madras_infrastructure_planning_management_pdf_class 21 - risk management for...

8/10/2019 Nptel.ac.In_courses_IIT-MADRAS_Infrastructure_Planning_Management_pdf_Class 21 - Risk Management for Infrastructure Projects & Term Sheet Development

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RISK MANAGEMENT FOR

INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS& TERMSHEET DEVELOPMENT

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CORE RISKS

REGULATORY FRAMEWORK DEMAND PRICING OF SERVICES REVENUE

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Regulatory Frae!or"

R#$"Commercia o!era"io#$ %i &e 'ea$i&e o#( i' re)*a"io#$ !ermi"

+ Co#$"r*c"io# a#, o%#er$-i! o' 'acii"ie$+ Im!o$i"io# a#, re.i$io# o' !rice 'or $er.ice$ !ro.i,e,+ Re"e#"io# a#, a!!ro!ria"io# o' !ro'i"$ &( PSP

+ Crea"io# o' c-ar)e o# Pro/ec" A$$e"$0Facii"( a#, recei.a&e$

M#t#gat#o%

I" i$ #ece$$ar( "o

+ Co#,*c" e)a ,*e ,ii)e#ce "o i,e#"i'( re)*a"or( ,e'icie#cie$+ O&"ai# $"a"e commi"me#" "o #ece$$ar( c-a#)e o' a% a#, mae

)o.er#me#" ia&e 'or ri$$ c-a#)e o' c-a#)e i# a%3

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Dea%

R#$"

Dema#, e$"ima"e$ ma( #o" &e "-ere i# a )ree# 'ie, !ro/ec" 5NG6CPro/ec" i# Ra#c-i7 8-ar-a#,9 or &e *#reai$"ic a$ *$*a( "-e( are ,eri.e,'rom macro eco#omic a#, ,emo)ra!-ic !ro/ec"io#$3

T-e e$"a&i$-me#" o' a com!e"i#) 'acii"ie$ ca# a''ec" ,ema#, a,.er$e(3

M#t#gat#o%

Pro.i,e 'or e:"e#$io# o' Co#ce$$io# Perio, i# ca$e Pro/ec" IRR i$ #o"

ac-ie.e,0 $"a"e $*!!or" "o "ari'' a$ $*&;,e&"33

Pro.i$io# #o" "o e$"a&i$- a com!e"i#) Facii"( +&*" re$"ric"io# $-o*, &e

rea$o#a&e; 'or $!eci'ie, !erio, or i# $!eci'ie, area3 U!'ro#" o''"ae commi"me#" 'rom co#$*mer$ ; "ae or !a( co#"rac"3


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Pr#'#%g o( Ser)#'e$

R#$"$

Ri$ ie$ i#

+ Lo$i#) co#$*mer$0 coec"i.e re$i$"a#ce; -i$"orica(

i#'ra$"r*c"*re -a$ &ee# a 'ree or *#,er !rice, !*&ic )oo,

+ Sec*ri#) re)*a"or( a!!ro.a3

M#t#gat#o%

Mae co#$*mer$ a%are o' !rice o' e:i$"i#) or com!e"i#)'acii"ie$ or $er.ice$7 $a.i#)$ a.aia&e &( *$e o' 'acii"(

Price ,i$crimi#a"io#;-i)-er !rice$ 'or commercia or

i#,*$"ria *$er$7 o%er !rice$ 'or %eaer $ec"io#$0're=*e#"*$er$

Wii#)#e$$ "o !a( $*r.e($ "o &e carrie, o*" "o e$"a&i$-!rice ea$"ici"(

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Re)e%ue Su**ort Ri$

Ri$ o' i#a,e=*a"e re"*r# i$ -i)-7 ,ema#, i$ *#cer"ai#7 PSP ma( #o"

'ree "o ,e"ermi#e !rice$ o# commercia &a$i$ or &e re=*ire, "o !ro.i,e'ree or c-ea!er $er.ice$ "o "ar)e" )ro*!$3

Mi"i)a"io#

Go.er#me#" -a$ "o *#,er %ri"e a mi#im*m ra"e o' re"*r#7 "-ro*)- "-e'oo%i#)

+ Fi$ca i#ce#"i.e$ +%ai.er$ o' $"am! ,*"ie$ a#, re)i$"ra"io# c-ar)e$7"a: e:em!"io#$ e"c7

+ Com!e#$a"io# "o PSP i# ca$- or &( e:"e#$io# o' Co#ce$$io# Perio,

i' PSP i$ re=*ire, "o !ro.i,e 'ree )oo,0$er.ice + I# Roa, Pro/ec"$;com!e#$a"io# i# ca$e o' a,,i"io# "o e:em!"e, ca"e)or( 3

+ Re.e#*e S-or"'a S*!!or" &( %a( o' oa# 'rom Go.er#me#" "omee" ,e&" $er.ice a#, O?M E:!e#$e$3

+ No# com!e"i#) 'acii"ie$ re$"ric"e, or re)*a"e,3+ De.eo!me#" Ri)-"$

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CONSTRUCTION RISKS

DESIGNCONSENTSCONSTRUCTION COST CONSTRUCTION TIMEDEFECTS IN CONSTRUCTION


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De$#g%

Ri$

T-e Pro/ec" De$i)# i$ *$*a( !re!are, &( !ri.a"e $ec"or!ar"ici!a#" %i"- a!!ro.a &( "-e Go.er#me#" or

I#,e!e#,e#" E#)i#eer3 Mi"i)a"io#

T-i$ ri$ i$ aoca"e, "o Co#ce$$io#aire %i"- a !a$$ "-ro*)-

"o "-e EPC Co#"rac"or3

No ia&ii"( o# Go.er#me#" 'or re.ie% or 'ai*re "o re.ie%&( Go.er#me#" or I#,e!e#,e#" E#)i#eer33

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Co%$e%t$ A!!ro.a$ #ee,e, 'rom Com!e"e#" A*"-ori"ie$ 5Ce#"ra7

S"a"e or oca &o,ie$93 Some a''ec"e, area$ are

+ E#.iro#me#"a Ceara#ce$7 !ar"ic*ar( 'or 'ore$"$7coa$"a o#e$ e"c3

+ La#, De.eo!me#" +S"a"*"or( A!!ro.a$ o' Ma$"erPa#$ e"c3

+ Re)*a"io# &( PSP; Tra''ic o# "-e Pro/ec" Roa,

+ Vario*$ Co#$"r*c"io# a#, O?M ac"i.i"ie$+ Ac=*iri#) a#,7 $-i'"i#) o' *"ii"ie$ or remo.a o'

e#croac-me#"$

+ Re-a&ii"a"io# o' PAP$

T-e aoca"io# o' "-i$ ri$ &e"%ee# PSP a#, S"a"e $-o*, &ecear( ,e'i#e,3 S"a"e "(!ica( a)ree$ 'or &e$" e''or"a$$i$"a#ce &*" $-o*, &e ma,e re$!o#$i&e 'or !ro.i,i#)ceara#ce$ %i"-i# i"$ co#"ro a#, !o%er a#, !ro.i,e'acii"a"io# o' o"-er$


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Co%$e%t$ +'o%t,-

M#t#gat#o%

A )e#era !ri#ci!e 'or e''ec"i.e aoca"io# %o*, &e "o + Aoca"e re$!o#$i&ii"( 'or ceara#ce$0co#$e#"$ o#

"ec-#ica7 commercia a#, 'i#a#cia i$$*e$ "o PSP3 T-erema( &e a !a$$ "-ro*)- "o "-e EPC Co#"rac"or3

+ Aoca"e re$!o#$i&ii"( 'or a#, ac=*i$i"io#7 $-i'"i#)*"ii"ie$7 remo.i#) e#croac-me#"$7 re-a&ii"a"io#7e#.iro#me#" "o "-e S"a"e e#"i"(3

Ri$$ o' ,ea($ i# o&"ai#i#) a!!ro.a a#, im!ica"io# o'"-a" o# co$" #ee,$ "o &e a$$e$$e,3

I# P*#/a&7 GOP -a$ a)ree, "o !a( 'or ,ama)e$ i# ca$e o',ea($ i# !ro.i,i#) *#e#c*m&ere, !o$$e$$io# o' $i"e %i"-ca!$ a#, 'or remo.a o' *"ii"ie$ &( "-e PSP3

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Co%$tru't#o% Co$t

Pre'era&( a $i#)e EPC Co#"rac"or "o a.oi, i#"er'ace ri$$ U$e o' *m!$*m "*r#e( co#"rac"i#) &a$i$ "o o&"ai# 'i:i"( o'

co$"

Ceari#) $"a"e circ*m$"a#ce$ *#,er %-ic- "-e Co#ce$$io#aire

ma( caim a,,i"io#a rem*#era"io#7 %-ic- $-o*, &e i e;C-a#)e o' Sco!e

I#'a"io# ri$ e"c3 $-o*, &e 'ac"ore, i# "-e *m! $*m !rice co#"i#)e#" '*#,i#) !ro.i$io# $-o*, &e ma,e Reie' $-o*, &e )i.e# 'or co$" o.err*#$ ,*e "o ,e'a*" or

,ea( o' !*&ic !ar"#er or #o#;i#$*ra&e Force Ma/e*re

E.e#"$ +"-i$ co*, &e i# ca$- or e:"e#$io# o' Co#ce$$io#Perio,3

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Co%$tru't#o% T#e

I$ "ime "-e e$$e#ce o' "-e co#"rac" Mo#i"or "ime more co$e( 'or "-e e$$e#"ia !*&ic

com!o#e#"$ a#, ea.e i" "o PSP 'or commerciacom!o#e#"$ i# %-ic- !ro'i" $e#$e %i mo"i.a"e PSP

Pre =*ai'ica"io# a#, &i, e.a*a"io# !roce$$ 5"ec-#icaca!aci"(7 'i#a#cia $"re#)"- a#, "rac recor,9 "o e$"a&i$-"-e PSP$ a&ii"( 'or im!eme#"a"io# o' Pro/ec"7 i#c*,i#)"ime( com!e"io#

Im!eme#"a"io# Sc-e,*e $-o*, &e cear( ,ei#ea"e, %i"-mie$"o#e$ 'or $*&;ac"i.i"ie$3

Time e:"e#$io# o# !a(me#" o' i=*i,a"e, ,ama)e 'or ,ea(3

A'"er %-ic- S"a"e e#"i"e, "o "ermi#a"e3 Perio,ic re!or"i#) a#, i#$!ec"io# &( Mo#i"ori#) A)e#c( Commercia i#ce#"i.e 'or ear( com!e"io# + COD

ac-ie.e, earier a#, "-ere'ore o#)er O!era"io#$ Perio,3

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De(e't$ #% Co%$tru't#o%

Cear( $"a"e, S!eci'ica"io#$ a#, S"a#,ar,$ "o ,e"ermi#e

!er'orma#ce Te$"i#) re=*ireme#"$ "o &e ,e"aie, De'ec"$ Lia&ii"( Perio, LD$ 'or 'ai*re "o mee" !er'orma#ce !arame"er$ Per'orma#ce Sec*ri"( a#,0or re"e#"io# o' !a(me#"$ I#$*ra#ce$

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OPERATION &MAINTENANCE RISKS

PERFORMANCE COST SECURITY OF FACILITIES

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Co$t o( O&M

T-e O!era"or %i &e &o*#, "o co#"rac"e, 'i:e, co$" a#,%i carr( ri$ o' .aria"io#7 $*&/ec" "o $*i"a&e i#,e:i#a)e "o com!e#$a"e 'or i#'a"io#3 i#,e:a"io# &a$i$ m*$"&e ai)#e, "o 'ac"or$ a''ec"i#) co$" o' o!era"io#$

O!era"or ma( &e )i.e# i#ce#"i.e$ 'or !er'orma#ce i# 'orm

o' re.e#*e $-are i# %-ic- ca$e "-e O!era"or ma( &e%ii#) "o a&$or& "-e co$" ri$

GENERALLY "-e co#$"r*c"io# a#, O?M ri$$ are

aoca"e, "o "-e PSP *#e$$ "-e $ame are ,*e "o "-e !*&ic!ar"#er3 I" i$ ,e$ira&e "o mae "-e co#"rac"or a#, o!era"ora $"ae-o,er i# "-e Pro/ec" SPV3

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FINANCIAL RISKS

LIHUIDITY

INTEREST RATE EC6ANGE RATE DEJT SERVICE RISK

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L#.u##ty R#$"

Ac-ie.eme#" o' Fi#a#cia Co$e !rior "o co#$"r*c"io#

comme#ceme#"3 5We" a#, Dr( Fi#a#cia Co$*re93 A)reeme#" "o &e &a#a&e; $"e! i# ri)-"$7 $*&$"i"*"e

e#"i"(7 crea"io# o' $ec*ri"ie$ i# 'a.o*r o' e#,er$7 cro$$,e'a*" !ro.i$io#7 e$cro%i#) o' recei.a&e3

Ma"c-i#) o' !a(me#" o&i)a"io#$ %i"- ,ra% ,o%# 'rome#,er$ a#, i#.e$"or$

Co#"i#)e#" 'i#a#ci#) commi"me#"$ 'rom

$!o#$or$0!romo"er$ "o co.er o.err*# o&i)a"io#$3

Jii#) a#, coec"io# "o &e &e#c-mare, a#, mo#i"ore,5re,re$$a o' com!ai#"$7 'a$" "rac re$o*"io# o' &ii#),i$!*"e$7 re&a"e$ 'or ,o%# !a(me#" or "o ear( &ir,$7o(a"( &o#*$7 $ec*ri"( ,e!o$i" 'rom co#$*mer$ e"c39

1B


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I%tere$t Rate & Fore#g% E/'0a%ge R#$"

W-ere "-e Co#ce$$io# i$ $"r*c"*re, o# a 'i:e, ra"e o' re"*r#

o# "o"a co$" o' !ro/ec"7 "-e !ro/ec" &orro%i#)$ m*$" &eco#"rac"e, o# corre$!o#,i#) 'i:e, ra"e &a$i$3 I#"ere$" ra"e$%a!$ $-o*, &e co#$i,ere, "o -e,)e a#( 'oa"i#) ra"ee:!o$*re3

a /*,icia mi: o' 'i:e, ra"e a#, 'oa"i#) ra"e i#$"r*me#"$ ma(&e *$e,3

Pro/ec" co*, &e $*&/ec" "o e:c-a#)e ra"e ri$ o# acco*#" o'

'orei)# c*rre#c( ,e#omi#a"e, !a(me#" o&i)a"io#$ "oCo#"rac"or or O!era"or or ,e&" $er.ici#) o' 'orei)# c*rre#c(&orro%i#)$

W-ere !ro/ec" re.e#*e accr*e$ e#"ire( i# oca c*rre#c(7

e:c-a#)e ri$ $-o*, &e eimi#a"e, "-ro*)- $%a!$ a#,'or%ar, co.er 1


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De1t Ser)#'#%g

A ,e&" $er.ice re$er.e "o &e mai#"ai#e, "o e#$*re ,e&"

$er.ici#)

Acce$$ "o $"a#,&( i#e o' cre,i"3

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INSURANCE

21


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I%$ura%'e 2 Pro3e't Co%$tru't#o%

U$e o' i#$*ra#ce m*$" &e ma:imi$e, i# i#'ra$"r*c"*re

!ro/ec"$ i# .ie% o' a imi"e, reco*r$e 'orma"

A$ &e$" !rac"ice7 i#$*ra#ce 'or !ro/ec" co#$"r*c"io# m*$" &e"ae# /oi#"( co.eri#) Co#ce$$io#aire7 co#"rac"or$ a#,o!era"or$

+ Co#$"r*c"io#0Erec"io# a ri$$ i#c*,i#)

De$i)# ri$ co.er E$caa"io# De'ec" ia&ii"( !erio,

+ Dea( i# S"ar" U! De&" $er.ice a#, o"-er 'i:e, co$"$

+ T-ir, Par"( Lia&ii"( T-e co#"rac"or m*$" &e &o*#, "o "ae a,e=*a"e co.er 'or

+ Co#$"r*c"io# !a#" a#, e=*i!me#"+ Worme#$ com!e#$a"io#

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I%$ura%'e 2 Pro3e't O*erat#o%

I#$*ra#ce co.er7 !o$" comme#ceme#" o' o!era"io#$

+ Fire+ Mac-i#er( Jrea,o%#+ Ca$- i# $a'e a#, i# "ra#$i"+ J*$i#e$$ I#"err*!"io#

+ T-ir, Par"( Lia&ii"(

Ma#,a"or( !*&ic ia&ii"( i#$*ra#ce7 %-ere.er a!!ica&e O!era"or m*$" "ae i#$*ra#ce 'or

+ Worme#$ com!e#$a"io#+ Em!o(ee 'i,ei"(

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ENVIRONMENTAL AND

SOCIAL RISKS

ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS SOCIAL RISKS

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