now and in the future · let’s start with the basics. ... clean power future ... nuclear future...
TRANSCRIPT
Clean Power:Now and in the Future
Defining Clean Power§ Only zero-emissions resources?§ Can fossil fuels be considered
clean?§ Can a resource be defined as
clean if it requires mining?§ Is clean used only in reference
to CO2?§ Can an all-of-the-above energy
strategy also be a clean energy strategy?
Defining the Future
§Tomorrow?§Next year?§20 years?
U.S. Electricity Generation in 2015
Source: Energy Information Administration
Coal (33%)Natural gas (33%)Nuclear (20%)Hydropower (6%)Wind (4.7%)Solar (0.6%)Other (2.7%)
Observations§ More than 2/3 of U.S.
electricity currently comes from fossil fuels
§ Nuclear is by far our largest non-carbon resource
§ Wind and solar produce less than 6 percent of our energy
Source: Energy Information Administration
Fossil FuelsNuclear Hydropower WindSolarOther
§ Electricity is the only product in the world that is made, delivered and consumed in the same moment in time
§ Mass battery storage currently infeasible
§ Limited access to other storage options
§ Constant balance of supply and demand
Let’s Start With the Basics
Society Wants Our Product To Be Better§Electricity should be…◦ Reliable 100% of the time◦ Affordable for 100% of the
population◦ 100% “clean” power
§Need to find the best balance of the 3
Other Considerations From a Utility’s Perspective§ What about physics?◦ Grid operations
§ What about National Security?◦ Fuel supply/disruptions◦ Component materials◦ 90% of rare earth metals for new
tech produced in other countries
Types of Generation§ Baseload power is available
for 24-7 demand§ Intermediate power plants
cycle with demand§ Peaking power is available
when demand is highest§ Intermittent power is
available when supply allows
What Influences Generation Choices?§ Capital costs
§ Operations, maintenance costs
§ Environmental compliance and permitting
§ Regulatory requirements
§ How quickly it can be built
§ Capacity factors
§ Load shape
§ Existing generation mix
§ Consumer wants/options
§ Advantages◦ Abundant fuel source◦ Relatively inexpensive fuel source◦ Reliable – can operate 24-7◦ Mostly solved non-CO2 emissions
§ Disadvantages◦ New federal CO2 regulations cause
uncertainty◦ Environmentalist opposition◦ Potentially difficult to finance
Coal
Future of Coal – Regulation§Clean Power Plan◦ First-ever federal limits on
CO2◦ Impacts states with
significant coal resources◦ 32% reduction in U.S. CO2
emissions by 2030◦ If overturned, new
regulation will take its place
Future of Coal – Technology§ Need to view CO2 as a
product with value, not just a waste product
§ Allam Cycle◦ CO2 runs the turbine
§ CO2 for enhanced oil recovery
§ Product development◦ Ethanol, biofuel, concrete
additive, plastics, chemicals, etc.
§Advantages◦ Moderate capital costs◦ Less emissions than coal◦ Reliable, flexible operation◦ Currently, natural gas is low-priced
Natural Gas
§Disadvantages◦ Costs have been historically volatile◦ Currently at about $2.84 per MBtu◦ Abundance of natural gas tied to fracking◦ High methane emissions – greenhouse
gas
Future of Natural Gas§ Most utilities consider natural gas
their top choice for future generation§ Beneficiary of current regulations§ Clean Power Plan forcing many
utilities to switch from coal to natural gas
§ Future fracking or methane regulations could impact supply and current low prices
§ Need improvements to nation’s pipeline infrastructure
Nuclear§Advantages◦ No CO2 emissions◦ Relatively low-cost fuel◦ Reliable operation – 24/7
§Disadvantages◦ Very high capital cost◦ Radioactive waste – societal opposition ◦ Extremely difficult permitting and licensing
process◦ First new U.S. nuclear reactor in two
decades began operating in 2016 (Watts Bar in Tennessee)
Future of Nuclear§Needs society’s support§Needs federal backstop§Technology needs time§Private sector pushing
small reactors (under 300 MW)
*Source:EnergyInformationAdministration,FY2013
§Advantages◦ No fuel cost◦ Low-cost energy to consumer◦ No air emissions◦ Reliable operation
§Disadvantages◦ Affects fish and wildlife habitat◦ Alters the natural flow of rivers◦ Virtually no resources left to develop
(some dams being removed)
Hydro
§Advantages◦ Renewable◦ No air emissions◦ Becoming cost-competitive
§Disadvantages◦ Has intermittent production
◦ 40-50% capacity factor◦ Need a lot of space for
development◦ Landowner opposition◦ Migratory bird issues◦ Requires backup generation
Wind
Solar§Advantages◦ Renewable◦ No air emissions
§Disadvantages◦ Still cost-prohibitive w/o
subsidy◦ Panels take a lot of space
relative to energy produced◦ Intermittent production
(needs backup)◦ Capacity factor: 15-18%
in MN
One week of production in Roseau, MN
What Would You Do as a CEO?§ No comprehensive national energy
policy§ Regulatory uncertainty§ Each generation source has
advantages and disadvantages§ Large investment decisions in short
time frames§ Generation sources expected to last
decades
Remember Society’s Expectations§Electricity should be…◦ Reliable 100% of the time◦ Affordable for 100% of the
population◦ 100% “clean” power
§Need to find the best balance of the 3
Other Technologies on the Horizon§Fuel cells§Electric vehicles§Batteries§Hydrogen options§Challenges – size,
scope, scale
Before we can have a Clean Power Future…
We should have a real dialogue to define“Clean Power” and “Future”
CleanCoal
Nuclear
Future is Now!
Wind
Natural Gas
Solar
20-YearPlanHydroTech
We Need an All-of-the-Above Energy Strategy§ All-of-the-above energy strategy is only way to meet
society’s expectations◦ Intermittent resources alone cannot meet our 24-7
needs§ Technology will drive the future of clean power◦ Fossil fuel plants will become even cleaner◦ Intermittency issues are being addressed
§ Let’s keep all our options on the table
Thank you