november 27, 2001 alaska 20/20 scott goldsmith professor of economics
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Alaska Demographic, Economic, and Social Trends. November 27, 2001 Alaska 20/20 Scott Goldsmith Professor of Economics Institute of Social and Economic Research University of Alaska Anchorage. Alaska at 40. Maturing Economy Booms and Busts Petroleum Cycle Good Luck Surprises. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage
November 27, 2001Alaska 20/20
Scott GoldsmithProfessor of Economics
Institute of Social and Economic ResearchUniversity of Alaska Anchorage
Alaska Demographic, Economic, and Social
Trends
Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage
Alaska at 40
• Maturing Economy• Booms and Busts• Petroleum Cycle• Good Luck• Surprises
Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage
Who Are We Today ?Population Change Since 1990 (000)
-100
1020304050607080
0-39 40-64 65+
.
Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage
Who Are We Becoming? Age Distribution of Alaskan in 2000
0-410-14
20-2430-34
40-4450-54
60-6470-74
80-840%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage
Sustainable Economy:Indicators of Slowing Economy
• Population• Resource Based Jobs• Total Jobs• Average Wage• Income per Household• Total Personal Income• Gross Product
Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage
Sustainable Economy:Permanent Fund Dividend Payout (mill 99$)
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
1995 2001
Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,50098
$
1990 GROWTH 1990 TO 1995 GROWTH 1995 TO 1999
Sustainable Economy:Federal Aid Per Capita: #1 in Nation
Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage
Sustainable Economy:Looking Ahead
• Dividend• Federal $• Petroleum• Traditional Resource Sector• New Resource Sector
Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage
Sustainable Public Services:GF Oil Revenues (98 Bill $)
70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage
Sustainable Public Services:Non-Oil Revenues (98 Bill $)
80 84 88 92 96 0$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
GENERAL FUND EARNINGS NON-PETROLEUM REVENUES
Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage
Sustainable Public Services:Public Outlays (Ratio to US Avg.)
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 19951.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0AL
ASKA
/ U
S AV
ERAG
E
OUTLAYS EXCLUDING PF DIVIDEND
Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage
Sustainable Public Services:Start of Year CBR Balance (bill $)
91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage
Sustainable Public Services:Looking Ahead
$1,000,000,000
Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage
Natural Environment:Who Owns Alaska
National Parks, Refuges, Forests
Other Fed
State/Local
Private
Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage
Natural Environment:Who Harvests Fish and Game?
Commercial96%
Sub3%
Sport1%
Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage
Natural Environment
• Water• Air
Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage
Education:Mixed Report Card
• Average Educational Attainment High but Alaska Advantage Falling
• ½ Students Failed High School Exit Exam• Fewer HS Students Graduate• Fewer HS Graduates Go to College• More Go to College Outside• Teacher Salaries less Competitive
Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage
Education:Looking Ahead
• College Age Population• Alaska Natives• Other Minorities• The Next Wave
Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage
Community-Family-Health
• Regional Life Style Differences• Low Tax / High PF Dividend• Income Distribution• HH composition
Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage
Community-Family-Health:Bill of (Un)Health
ObesitySmokingTuberculosisAlcohol Related DeathsAccidental DeathSuicideFetal Alcohol Syndrome
Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage
Assets:What Do We Have to Work With ?
• Marketable Resources• Natural Environment• Physical Infrastructure• Native Corporations• Financial Assets• Personal Assets• Social Capital
Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage
November 27, 2001Alaska 20/20
Scott GoldsmithProfessor of Economics
Institute of Social and Economic ResearchUniversity of Alaska Anchorage
Alaska Demographic, Economic, and Social
Trends