OLDER AMERICANS MONTHOLDER AMERICANS MONTHMAY 2006MAY 2006

Scott Goldsmith

Institute of Social and Economic Research

University of Alaska Anchorage

ANCHORAGE SENIOR CENTER May 1, 2006

Anchorage, Alaska

OLDER AMERICANS: 57 VARIETIESOLDER AMERICANS: 57 VARIETIES

ALASKA SENIORS

AND MORE………….AND MORE………….

ALASKA SENIORS

500 Million Seniors Worldwide.

ALASKA SENIORS

05

1015202530

Th

ousa

nd

Near Old(60-64)

Young Old (65-74)

Old (75-84)

Old Old(85+)

Alaska Senior Population : Rank #50 in US

SENIORS ARE 5.5% OF POPULATION BUT IN 12% OF HH

ALASKA SENIORS

1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-20300%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

% In

cre

ase

Alaska

US

Growth of Senior Population 65+:Alaska vs. US

# 2 In Growth Rate of Seniors By 2030 15 % of Alaskans will be Seniors (like Florida today)

Anchorage is Adding 600 Seniors Every Year—Almost 1 in 5 new residents

Alaska Baby Boomers will Drive Alaska Baby Boomers will Drive Growth in Senior PopulationGrowth in Senior Population

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1000.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

ALASKA

US

ALASKA AGE DISTRIBUTION IN 2000

BB were born between 1946 and 1964. In 2000 they ranged in age from 36 to 54.

ALASKA SENIORS

Alaska Domestic Civilian Net Migration Rate: 65+ Population

- 14

- 12

-10

-8

- 6

- 4

- 2

0

1965-70 1975-80 1985-90 1995-00

Time Period

Rat

e (%

)

Source: Census of Population, IPUMS, ISER.

ALASKA SENIORS

ALASKA SENIORS

28 % WORKING

SENIORS 65-74

38 % CAREGIVING

65 % VOLUNTEERING

ALASKA SENIORS

Alaska Senior Households: Median Income (Inflation and COLA Adjusted)

1980 1990 2000 2004

Married Couple $41,881 $52,663 $57,505 $61,833

Woman Alone (31% of women)

$12,805 $19,663 $20,245 $23,809

RATIO OF ALASKA TO US

Married Couple 1.33 1.30 1.20 1.33

Woman Alone 1.10 1.41 1.15 1.41

RATIO OF AK SENIORS TO OTHERS

Married Couple .63 .73 .76 .78

Woman Alone .44 .60 .62 .78

ALASKA SENIORS

Poverty Rate for Persons 65+

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1970 1980 1990 2000

Alaska

US

Source: US Census.

ALASKA SENIORS

Table II.1. Cash Flow to Alaska in 2004 from

Retired Seniors 60+ Million $ Per Capita Total $1,461 $28,167 Retirement Income $1,139 $21,947 Health Care $302 $5,821 Other $21 $400 Source: ISER Calculation.

The 52 thousand retired Alaska seniors, aged 60+, directly contributed $1.461 billion to the Alaska economy by their presence (measured in 2004), or $28 thousand per retiree. This is an estimate of the cash flow that would disappear from the state with the disappearance of Alaska seniors 60+ who are retired.

RETIREES AS AN ECONOMIC ENTERPRISE

Industry CharacteristicsIndustry Characteristics

Diverse Job MixYear Round EmploymentStableEnvironmentally BenignLocal SpendingCompatibilityNon-EnclaveStable Potential Tax BaseEconomies of Scale

Demand on Scarce Resources

ALASKA SENIORS

GENERAL CONCERNSGENERAL CONCERNS

ADEQUACY OF INCOME

HEALTH CARE COSTS

LONG TERM CARE

ALASKA SENIORS

ALASKA SENIORS

Lo

we

st F

ifth

Se

con

d F

ifth

Mid

dle

Fift

h

Fo

urt

h F

ifth

Hig

he

st f

ifth

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%S

ha

re o

f In

com

e

Public Assistance/OtherEarningsPensionsInvestmentsSocial Security

Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey.

Income Sources of Seniors 65+ by Income Level

ALASKA SENIORS

0-18 19-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

Th

ou

san

ds

Source: CMS.

Per Capita Annual Health Care ExpendituresUS Average in 1999

ALASKA SENIORS

0-1819-44

45-5455-64

65-7475-84

85+0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

Other Public

Medicaid

Medicare

Other Private

Private Insurance

Out of Pocket

Source: CMS.

Health Care Expenditures: Source of PaymentPercent Distribution, US Average in 1999

ALASKA SENIORS

Table IV.1. Long Term Care: Comparative Costs in 2005

Alaska United States

Ratio Alaska

Annualized Nursing home: Semi-private room per day

$473 $176 2.69 $172,645

Nursing home: Private room per day

$531 $203 2.62 $193,815

Home health aide hourly wage

$22 $19 1.16

Homemaker hourly wage

$20 $17 1.18

Source: Metlife Market Survey of Nursing Home and Home Care Costs, 2005, ISER.

SENIORS FALLING THRU THE SENIORS FALLING THRU THE CRACKS (part 1)CRACKS (part 1)

Lower income seniors eligible for but not receiving Senior Care

• Low income seniors not receiving social security

• Elderly senior women whose husbands have died and left them poor

• Lower income seniors that require home or assisted living care that is not covered by Medicaid

ALASKA SENIORS

SENIORS FALLING THRU THE SENIORS FALLING THRU THE CRACKS (part 2)CRACKS (part 2)

•Rural seniors without local access to long term care options

•Middle income seniors that require nursing home care but are not eligible for Medicaid coverage to pay the bill

•Seniors with Medicare health care coverage who are unable to find a doctor willing to take Medicare patients

•Seniors without Medigap health care coverage who experience a catastrophic illness

ALASKA SENIORS

SOCIETAL CHALLENGESSOCIETAL CHALLENGES HEALTH CARE WORKERS

SETTLEMENT PATTERNS

CONSUMPTION PATTERNS

LABOR FORCE

SYSTEM RESPONSIVENESS

SYSTEM OVERLOAD

ALASKA SENIORS

ALASKA SENIORS

The Bell Tolls for the Future Merry Widow

Men are catching up with women in the life expectancy game………..

ALASKA SENIORS

Japan's Pensioners Embark on ‘Grey Crime'

Wave

At 70, Yasumasa Matsuzaki did not look especially dangerous. He was just a nuisance to the workers at a convenience store because of his habit of reading magazines without ever buying anything………………

ALASKA SENIORS

25 % of Seniors use the Internet

OLDER AMERICANS MONTHOLDER AMERICANS MONTHMAY 2006MAY 2006

Scott Goldsmith

Institute of Social and Economic Research

University of Alaska Anchorage

ANCHORAGE SENIOR CENTER May 1, 2006

Anchorage, Alaska