northeast river forecast center
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Mission: Protection of Life and Property 13 River Forecast Centers across USA 122 Weather Forecast OfficesTRANSCRIPT
Ed Capone, NOAA NWS Northeast River
Forecast Center
1/31/2012
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Northeast River Forecast CenterNortheast River Forecast CenterEdward J. CaponeEdward J. Capone
Service Coordination HydrologistService Coordination Hydrologist
Hudson River Estuary ConferenceHudson River Estuary ConferenceJan 31, 2012Jan 31, 2012
Northeast River Forecast CenterNortheast River Forecast CenterEdward J. CaponeEdward J. Capone
Service Coordination HydrologistService Coordination Hydrologist
Hudson River Estuary ConferenceHudson River Estuary ConferenceJan 31, 2012Jan 31, 2012
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River Forecast CentersRiver Forecast Centers
� Mission: Protection
of Life and Property
� Flood Guidance
� Water Supply
� 13 River Forecast
Centers across USA
� 122 Weather
Forecast Offices
Ed Capone, NOAA NWS Northeast River
Forecast Center
1/31/2012
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NERFC OperationsNERFC Operations
� Nearly 200 forecast location� Time to Peak: 6-48 hours
� Elevation from 0 – 6600 ft
� River Basins� Connecticut
� Mohawk
� Hudson
� Merrimack
� Kennebec
� Penobscot
� St John
� Staff of 14
� Located in Taunton, Massachusetts
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Hudson Calibrated WatershedsHudson Calibrated Watersheds
Ed Capone, NOAA NWS Northeast River
Forecast Center
1/31/2012
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� Original Model NWS FLDWAV (2007-2009)
� Hydrologic Engineering Center – River Analysis System
(HEC-RAS ) allows one dimensional steady and unsteady
river flow hydraulics calculations
� Developed by US Army Corps of Engineers (HEC Davis)
� HEC Modifications in LINUX System into FEWS
� Publically available and widely accepted by government
agencies (USACE, NOAA-NWS) and private firms
Mathematical Model of Hudson River Estuary -- HEC-RAS
Mathematical Model of Hudson River Estuary -- HEC-RAS
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� Model Inputs
� X-section geometry - Battery to Troy Dam
� Time Series Inflow Hydrograph at Troy
� Lateral Inflows – 4 time series hydrographs
� Downstream Boundary – Stage Time Series (Battery)
� Manning’s “n” coefficients (flow/stage)
� Model Outputs
� Computed Water Surface Elevations (CWSEL)
� Depth of Flow
� Very Rough velocities
Basic Model Input/OutputBasic Model Input/Output
Ed Capone, NOAA NWS Northeast River
Forecast Center
1/31/2012
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Main Model PurposeMain Model Purpose
� Forecast Water Surface Levels at Gage Locations along
the River at Albany and Poughkeepsie (Flooding)
� WFO Albany
� Emergency Managers -- backwater flooding of local
tributaries
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Hudson River Model -- 150 milesHudson River Model -- 150 miles
http://ny.water.usgs.gov/projects/dialer_plots/hsfloc.gif
Ed Capone, NOAA NWS Northeast River
Forecast Center
1/31/2012
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y� Assumption 1: one dimensional flow
Downstream velocity across channel depends only on depth
Zero velocity laterally (across channel)
Zero velocity vertically
� Assumption 2: uniform water surface cross channel
� Assumption 3: slope of river bed is small
(sinθ ≈ tan θ = – dz/dx )
� HEC-2 (BRANCH) --- NWS FLDWAV --- HEC-RAS Sections
� Operational Requirement – Must provide a forecast in minutes
Key Assumptions & ApproximationsKey Assumptions & Approximations
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Height Error Stats vs. Lead-timeHeight Error Stats vs. Lead-time
Ed Capone, NOAA NWS Northeast River
Forecast Center
1/31/2012
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Height Correlation (Skill) vs Lead-timeHeight Correlation (Skill) vs Lead-timeN
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Inflows from IreneInflows from Irene
Ed Capone, NOAA NWS Northeast River
Forecast Center
1/31/2012
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Irene Forecast Services Irene Forecast Services
Incorporation of SLOSH into Hydraulic Modeling:
1. Forecast w/in inches of morning flood/surge at POUN6
2. GFS MRPSSE ET Surge resulted in over-simulation of the
earlier overnight tide cycle
3. Underforecast of the Albany crest (2 feet) (part tide/part
rainfall )
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Downstream Boundary and ForecastDownstream Boundary and Forecast
Ed Capone, NOAA NWS Northeast River
Forecast Center
1/31/2012
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Model Can Integrate(Cornell)
Model Can Integrate(Cornell)
� Tidal variation (as observed, 4-5 feet swing)
� Tributary flow levels (wet, dry, average)
� Possible sea level rise at the Battery (0, 2, 4 ft)
� Possible Storm surge
� Wind setup (not currently implemented)
� Channel changes, shoreline modifications
� Future land movement (uplift, subsidence)
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Future EnhancementsFuture Enhancements� Additional full (x,y pairs) x-sections and structure/embankment detail
� Multiple Battery forecasts – NOS – Stevens Institute
� Delft SOBEK and DELFT3D model testing (2D/3D model)
� NERFC wants to pursue the “SLOSH Ensemble”
� More testing and evaluation is necessary to identify deficiencies in
NERFC modeling
� LIDAR availability for future real-time forecast inundation mapping
� NERFC at the mercy of tidal boundary forcing
� SLOSH, ET Surge/GFS MRPSSE, Stevens , etc…
� Will experiment this spring with ESTOFS
� Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System
(**Experimental until Q1 FY2012) developed by NOAA/NOS/Office of
Coast Survey/ Coast Survey Development Lab
� Uses the circulation model ADCIRC
� 2.5 km res, and will run 4 times daily once operational
Ed Capone, NOAA NWS Northeast River
Forecast Center
1/31/2012
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Questions ?Questions ?
�Thank you