mississippi and atchafalaya river flood briefing may 9, 2011 national weather service lower...
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Mississippi and Atchafalaya River Flood Briefing
May 9, 2011
Mississippi and Atchafalaya River Flood Briefing
May 9, 2011
National Weather Service
Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center
and
Weather Forecast OfficeNew Orleans/Baton Rouge and Jackson, MS
National Weather Service
Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center
and
Weather Forecast OfficeNew Orleans/Baton Rouge and Jackson, MS
Rainfall Next 5 DaysRainfall Next 5 Days
Pattern Pattern Brings Brings Light to Light to ModerateModerateRain to Rain to Ohio and Ohio and Mississippi Mississippi River River BasinsBasins
Extended Forecast
May 11 May 12 May 13
May 14 May 15
Location Levee Heightat gage
Current ForecastCrest without Morganza
Contingency Forecast Crestwith Morganza
Vicksburg 112.5* 57.5 57
Natchez 84.3* 64.0 62.5
Red River Landing 68.3* 65.5 63.5 – 64.5
Baton Rouge 51.4* 47.5 45.5 – 46.5
Donaldsonville 36.6* 36.0 34
Reserve 32.7* 28.0 25
New Orleans 24.0* 19.5 17
Mississippi River Crests With and Without Morganza Operation
* Levee Heights provided by U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Location Levee Height at Gage
Current ForecastCrest without Morganza
Contingency Forecast Crestwith Morganza
Simmesport 62.0* 50.0 50.0
Melville WARL 53.0*EARL 48.5* 40.0 40.0
Krotz Springs WARL 45.12*EARL 41.5* 35.0 35.0
Butte LaRose WARL 25.5* 25.0 27.0
Bayou Sorrell Proper 22.8 14.0 21.5
Myette Point WABPL 27.5 14.5 19.0
Morgan City 21.7* 9.5 12.0 – 13.0
Atchafalaya River Crests With and Without Morganza Operation
* Levee Heights provided by U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Mississippi River ForecastMississippi River Forecast
Crest Height at 57.5’Crest Height at 57.5’May 19th May 19th
Crest Height at 64.0’Crest Height at 64.0’May 21May 21stst
Crest Height at 65.5’Crest Height at 65.5’May 22nd May 22nd
Crest Height at 47.5’Crest Height at 47.5’May 22nd May 22nd
Crest Height at 36.0’Crest Height at 36.0’May 22nd May 22nd
Crest Height at 28.0’Crest Height at 28.0’May 23May 23rdrd
Crest Height at 19.5’Crest Height at 19.5’May 23rd May 23rd
Assumes NO Morganza Operation
Mississippi River ForecastMississippi River Forecast
Crest Height at 57’Crest Height at 57’May 20th May 20th
Crest Height at 62.5’Crest Height at 62.5’May 22rd May 22rd
Crest Height at 63.5’Crest Height at 63.5’to 64.5’ May 23rd to 64.5’ May 23rd
Crest Height at 45.5’Crest Height at 45.5’to 46.5’ May 23rd to 46.5’ May 23rd
Crest Height at 35.0’Crest Height at 35.0’May 23rd May 23rd
Crest Height at 25.0’Crest Height at 25.0’May 24May 24thth
Crest Height at 17.0’Crest Height at 17.0’May 24th May 24th
Assumes Morganza Operation
Atchafalaya River BasinAtchafalaya River Basin
Crest Height at 9.5’Crest Height at 9.5’May 25May 25thth
Assumes No Morganza Operation
Crest Height at 50.0’Crest Height at 50.0’May 23May 23rdrd
Crest Height at 40.0’Crest Height at 40.0’May 23May 23rdrd Crest Height at 35.0’Crest Height at 35.0’May 24May 24thth Crest Height at 25.0’Crest Height at 25.0’May 24May 24thth Crest Height at 14.0’Crest Height at 14.0’May 25May 25thth Crest Height at 14.5’Crest Height at 14.5’May 25May 25thth
Atchafalaya River BasinAtchafalaya River Basin
Crest Height at 12-13’Crest Height at 12-13’May 25May 25thth
Assumes Morganza Operation
Crest Height at 50.0’Crest Height at 50.0’May 23May 23rdrd
Crest Height at 40.0’Crest Height at 40.0’May 23May 23rdrd Crest Height at 35.0’Crest Height at 35.0’May 24May 24thth Crest Height at 27.0’Crest Height at 27.0’May 24May 24thth Crest Height at 21.5’Crest Height at 21.5’May 25May 25thth Crest Height at 19.0’Crest Height at 19.0’May 25May 25thth
DATE CREST
05/28/1973 10.53 RECORD06/27/1957 8.4604/05/1997 8.0604/18/1975 7.9506/06/1983 7.32
DATE CREST
05/28/1973 10.53 RECORD06/27/1957 8.4604/05/1997 8.0604/18/1975 7.9506/06/1983 7.32
MORGAN CITY IMPACTSFORECAST CREST (NO Morganza)– 9.5 FT
FORECAST CREST (Morganza) – 12 to 13 FT
MORGAN CITY IMPACTSFORECAST CREST (NO Morganza)– 9.5 FT
FORECAST CREST (Morganza) – 12 to 13 FT
4 ft – Water will move up the bank and across access roads below the city dock. Vessel Traffic safety rules will be strictly enforced by the US Coast Guard. Minor
5 ft – Floodwall gates will be closed to protect against higher stages. Vessel traffic will be affected by stronger river current and vessel traffic safety rules will be strictly enforced by the U. S. Coast guard. Minor
6 ft – The city dock will be under water. Water will cover the lower end of Belleview Front street in Berwick. Vessel traffic will be affected by stronger river current and vessel traffic safety rules will be strictly enforced by the U. S. Coast guard. Minor
7 ft – Buildings at the foot of Ann street on the river side of the flood wall will flood as water overtops the Rio Oil Company dock. Buildings on the river side of the Berwick floodwall will flood. River traffic restrictions will be strictly enforced. Moderate
9 ft – structures on the river side of protection walls in Morgan City and Berwick will be under water. River traffic restrictions will be strictly enforced. Moderate
4 ft – Water will move up the bank and across access roads below the city dock. Vessel Traffic safety rules will be strictly enforced by the US Coast Guard. Minor
5 ft – Floodwall gates will be closed to protect against higher stages. Vessel traffic will be affected by stronger river current and vessel traffic safety rules will be strictly enforced by the U. S. Coast guard. Minor
6 ft – The city dock will be under water. Water will cover the lower end of Belleview Front street in Berwick. Vessel traffic will be affected by stronger river current and vessel traffic safety rules will be strictly enforced by the U. S. Coast guard. Minor
7 ft – Buildings at the foot of Ann street on the river side of the flood wall will flood as water overtops the Rio Oil Company dock. Buildings on the river side of the Berwick floodwall will flood. River traffic restrictions will be strictly enforced. Moderate
9 ft – structures on the river side of protection walls in Morgan City and Berwick will be under water. River traffic restrictions will be strictly enforced. Moderate
MORGAN CITYFORECAST CREST – 9.5 FT
MORGAN CITYFORECAST CREST – 9.5 FT
THERE IS A MAJOR FLOOD THREAT.
BACK WATER FLOODING OF 5 TO 6 FEET AT BAYOU BOUEF WILL CAUSE DAMAGE EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE COMMUNITY OF AMELIA.
STRUCTURES ON THE RIVER SIDE OF PROTECTION WALLS IN MORGAN CITY AND BERWICK WILL BE UNDER WATER. RIVER TRAFFIC RESTRICTIONS WILL BE STRICTLY ENFORCED.
THERE IS A MAJOR FLOOD THREAT.
BACK WATER FLOODING OF 5 TO 6 FEET AT BAYOU BOUEF WILL CAUSE DAMAGE EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE COMMUNITY OF AMELIA.
STRUCTURES ON THE RIVER SIDE OF PROTECTION WALLS IN MORGAN CITY AND BERWICK WILL BE UNDER WATER. RIVER TRAFFIC RESTRICTIONS WILL BE STRICTLY ENFORCED.
MORGAN CITYFORECAST CREST – 12 - 13 FT
MORGAN CITYFORECAST CREST – 12 - 13 FT
Records on Mississippi RiverRecords on Mississippi River
Red River LandingRed River Landing
1) 62.30 ft on 03/25/1997
2) 60.94 ft on 05/14/1927
3) 60.96 ft on 04/25/2008
Current forecast crest 65.5 ft
1) 62.30 ft on 03/25/1997
2) 60.94 ft on 05/14/1927
3) 60.96 ft on 04/25/2008
Current forecast crest 65.5 ft
Baton RougeBaton Rouge
1) 47.28 ft on 05/15/1927
2) 45.18 ft on 05/16/1922
3) 45.18 ft on 04/29/1945
Current forecast crest 47.5 ft
1) 47.28 ft on 05/15/1927
2) 45.18 ft on 05/16/1922
3) 45.18 ft on 04/29/1945
Current forecast crest 47.5 ft
DonaldsonvilleDonaldsonville
1) 36.01 ft on 05/15/1927
2) 34.75 ft on 05/16/1922
3) 34.11 ft on 04/29/1945
Current forecast crest 36.0 ft
1) 36.01 ft on 05/15/1927
2) 34.75 ft on 05/16/1922
3) 34.11 ft on 04/29/1945
Current forecast crest 36.0 ft
ReserveReserve
1) 26.00 ft on 06/11/1929
2) 25.90 ft on 04/28/1945
3) 25.60 ft on 03/05/1932
Current forecast crest 28.0 ft
1) 26.00 ft on 06/11/1929
2) 25.90 ft on 04/28/1945
3) 25.60 ft on 03/05/1932
Current forecast crest 28.0 ft
New OrleansNew Orleans
1) 21.27 ft on 04/25/1922
2) 21.02 ft on 05/11/1912
3) 21.00 ft on 04/25/1927
Current forecast crest 19.5 ft
1) 21.27 ft on 04/25/1922
2) 21.02 ft on 05/11/1912
3) 21.00 ft on 04/25/1927
Current forecast crest 19.5 ft