Division of Coastal Management 400 Commerce Ave., Morehead City, NC 28557 Phone: 252-808-2808 \ FAX: 252-247-3330 Internet: www.nccoastalmanagement.net An Equal Opportunity \ Affirmative Action Employer

CRC-14-14

April 21, 2014

MEMORANDUM TO: Coastal Resources Commission FROM: Mike Lopazanski SUBJECT: Science Panel Role, Studies and Vacancies Science Panel Charge You will recall from the memo prepared for the February 2014 CRC meeting (CRC-14-08) regarding the origin of the Commission’s Science Panel on Coastal Hazards, the creation of a standing scientific panel stemmed from the Commission’s intent to apply scientific knowledge to problems the CRC faced as regulators.There was interest in enlisting the participation of scientists who had an understanding of the coastal management program,as well as the CRC’s rules, to help apply the current state of knowledge and best available science in the development of CRC regulations. In assembling such a group, the CRC considered the need for a clear charge from the Commission to ensure their direction. In 2013, the Commission updated the Charge to formalize the appointment of members, outline a consensus-based approach to assignments, enact four-year staggered terms, and clarify officer elections. Two additional membership slots were added,as well as the use of ad hoc members to fill specific study needs. Since its existence, the Panel has been asked by the Commission to develop recommendations or provide technical advice on a number of issues including:

1. Sediment Criteria Development (2002 - 2007) 2. Review Innovative Erosion Control Structures - Holmberg Stabilizer System

(2002 - 2003) 3. Inlet Hazard Areas Analysis & Delineation (2007 – 2010; per HB-819 continue

study in 2013) 4. Terminal Groins (Review Feasibility Study 2009) 5. Terminal Groins (Guidance on monitoring for adverse impacts 2011- 2012) 6. Sea Level Rise Assessment (2009 to Present) 7. Review results from updated Erosion Rate study (2011) 8. Mad Inlet Assessment (2013)

North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources

Pat McCrory John E. Skvarla, III Governor Secretary

Division of Coastal Management 400 Commerce Ave., Morehead City, NC 28557 Phone: 252-808-2808 \ FAX: 252-247-3330 Internet: www.nccoastalmanagement.net An Equal Opportunity \ Affirmative Action Employer

As the Commission considers the future use of the Science Panel, it will be useful to revisit the Charge to ensure that both the Panel and Commission have a clear understanding of the relationship and what is expected. Attached is the current Science Panel Charge as revised by the Chairman Gorham for your review and to facilitate discussion. Science Panel Vacancies Science Panel vacancies have traditionally been filled by recommendations of the Division and Panel members in consultation with and at the discretion of the CRC Chair.There are currently four vacancies on the Science Panel, and there is a need to include “ad hoc” study members for the legislatively-mandated Sea-Level Rise Assessment Update (pursuant to Session Law 2012-212). During 2013, the Division issued a call for Science Panel nominations from CRC, CRAC and current Science Panel members. The call for nominations included two engineers and two geologists, as well as nominees for the ad hoc Sea-Level Rise study group. As of August 2013, DCM had received 12 nominations for the Panel and eight nominations for the sea-level rise study members (several individuals were nominated for both groups). As the Legislature has directed the Commission to complete a draft of the Sea-Level Rise Update by March 2015, it will be necessary for the Science Panel and the ad hoc members to begin their work by June of this year.The Commission will therefore need to name the ad hoc members shortly after the May CRC meeting. Chairman Gorham has asked that Commissioners and Advisory Council members consider the individuals that have been nominated, AND to nominate any additional individuals that should be considered. Attached is a list of the current nominees and supporting information for both the Science Panel and the sea-level rise report ad hoc group. Additional names, along with supporting documentation, should be sent to the Division by June 6, 2014 so that Chairman Gorham may name the ad hoc group in time to begin the update.Please contact your potential nominees prior to nominating them in order to confirm their interest in serving. A complete nomination includes a resume, CV, or other qualifying information with respect to their knowledge and experience.

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Charge to the Coastal Resources Commission’s Science Panel on Coastal Hazards 

Charge 

The purpose of the Science Panel on Coastal Hazards(Panel) is to provide the Coastal Resources Commission (CRC) scientific data and recommendations regarding coastal hazardsprocessesincluding erosion, accretion, sand transport and the interactions of wind, waves and currents with the shoreline.At the specific request of the CRC, the The Panel is charged with the following: 1) continually reviewreviewingthe current state of knowledge of coastal processes and ecological functions of coastal North Carolina; 2) reviewassessingthe current methodologies being used by North Carolina and others to define and identify coastal hazardareassubject to adverseand impacts of coastal processesassociated with development in public trust areas of North Carolina; 3) reviewingreview the scientific basis of the CRC’s rules as applied by the Division of Coastal Management (DCM) to development in the coastal area; and 4) developingdevelop recommendations for the CRCCoastal Resources Commission on topics that include the following:

1. Opportunities to incorporate current scientificinformation on North Carolina coastal processes in the CRC rules for Estuarine and Ocean Areas;

2. New coastal engineering technologies or methods;

3. Specific projects as assigned by the CRC or requested by the Panel. When the CRC assigns a project, it should provide the Panel with specific questions it needs answered and any necessary timelines. The Panel should maintain the flexibility to propose projects and scopes of work to the CRC for approval.

 

Membership and Officers

The membership of the Panel should be no more than 15 individuals havingprofessional expertise in coastal science or engineering, butadditional members may be added on an ad hoc basis to expand the expertise of the Panel for specific studies if deemed necessary by the CRC Chair in consultation with the Panel. Nominations for new members and ad hoc members may be made by CRC members, current Science Panel members, DCM staff, or the Coastal Resources Advisory Council at any public meeting of the CRC. New members and ad hoc members will be appointed by the CRC Chair based on a review of the nominee’s relevant expertise and credentials with respect to coastal science or engineeringhazards processes. New and replacement members will be appointed as needed. Panel members should serve staggered terms of four years to ensure continuity. New member terms should be for four years, with re-appointmentsfor additional four-year termswhen mutually agreed upon by the Panel member and CRC Chair. Regular attendance or participation by other means is important, and a Panel member may be asked to step down after prolonged non-participation, or at the discretion of the CRC Chair.  The officers of the Panel are the Chair and Vice-Chair. Officer terms are for two years, and the Chair and Vice-Chair should be elected biennially by the Panel. The Chair should work with staff to establish meeting agendas, preside over Panel meetings, and appoint subcommittees and subcommittee chairs as necessary to carry out the Panel’s business. The Vice-Chair should preside over Panel meetings in the

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absence of the Chair and assume the duties of the Chair if the Chair is unable to completetheir term until another Chair is selected by the Panel.

Panel Meeting Agendas 

Meetings of the Panel willbe open to the public and each meeting should include an opportunity for public comments for the Panel to consider. Meeting notes and other records of all Panel meetings willbe kept by the Division of Coastal Management. Draft notes will be distributed to Panel members for review, and final notes will be posted on the DCM webpage. The Chair, Vice-Chair, and DCM staff should work together to prepare meeting agendas, which will be provided to members and to the public at least seven days prior to a scheduled meeting.

Consensus Building  Final Panel reports should be developed by consensus whereby (preferably) all Panel members support the general findings and recommendations, and clearly articulate any differences of opinion related to specific findings. In the absence of consensus, a minority opinion section should be included with each recommendation or report, if applicable. The outline below is a general guideline for larger reports, but not all communications between the Panel and the CRC need to follow this format. Some recommendations, such as those pertaining to new coastal engineering technologies or methods, are as simple as amay beinmemo formfrom the Panel to the CRC. Larger panelPanelreports should follow a common outline so the CRC and stakeholders know what to expect in terms of format and content. The goal of Panel reports is to use the best available data to identify common ground and areas of disagreement to help set the context for CRC policy deliberations. To help reach consensus, it is essential for Panel members to participate in discussions, weigh in on draft recommendations, and review final reports. The outlineshould include, at a minimum, the following sections:

• General Issue • Specific Question(s) to be Answered • Options Explored by Panel • Best Available Science • Key Assumptions, Uncertainties, and/or Data Limitations Associated with

Each Option • Consensus Findings and Recommendations • Minority Opinions and/or Specific Areas of Disagreement

Dissemination of Information 

Draft findings and recommendations for which the Commission intends to incorporate public inputshouldonlybe released for public comment following preliminary review and approval by the Coastal Resources Commission. Division of Coastal Management staff will coordinate the public review process. Final recommendations of the Panel adopted pursuant to the consensus building and public review procedures described aboveshould be reported in writing to the Division Director and the Chair of the

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Coastal Resources Commission. Presentations of Panel recommendations to the CRCshouldbe made by the Panel Chair or their designee.

 

SCIENCE PANEL NOMINATIONS – AUGUST 2013 Full Membership

• Robert Brown* (Duke) – nominated by Larry Baldwin (CRC) • David Burton* (NC‐20 Science Advisor) – nominated by Larry Baldwin (CRC) • Reide Corbett* (ECU) – nominated by Rob Young • David Duane (Geologist) – nominated by Spencer Rogers and Anne Deaton (CRAC) • Jesse McNinch (USACE FRF) – nominated by Bill Birkemeier (Science Panel) • Laura Moore (UNC Chapel Hill) – nominated by Tony Rodriguez(Science Panel) • Greg “Rudi” Rudolph (Carteret Co. Shore Protection Office) – nominated by Spencer Rogers(Science Panel) • Nicola Scafetta* (Duke) – nominated by Larry Baldwin (CRC) • J.P. Walsh (ECU) – nominated by Joan Weld (CRC) • Mike Wutkowski (USACE Wilmington District) nominated by Greg Williams (former Science Panel 

member, USACE Wilmington District) • Stan Young* (National Institute of Statistical Sciences) – nominated by Larry Baldwin (CRC) 

Ad Hoc SLR Membership

• Larry Atkinson (Old Dominion University) – nominated by Rob Young(Science Panel) • Robert Brown* (Duke) – nominated by Larry Baldwin (CRC) • David Burton* (NC‐20 Science Advisor) – nominated by Larry Baldwin (CRC) • Reide Corbett* (ECU) – nominated by Stan Riggs and Pete Peterson(Science Panel) • Carolyn Currin (NOAA) – nominated by Pete Peterson(Science Panel) • Dave Mallinson (ECU) – nominated by Stan Riggs and Pete Peterson(Science Panel) • Nicola Scafetta* (Duke) – nominated by Larry Baldwin (CRC) • Stan Young* (National Institute of Statistical Sciences) – nominated by Larry Baldwin (CRC) 

*Nominated for both full and ad hoc membership

Classification: UNCLASSIFIED Caveats: NONE Matt, I'd like to nominate Mike Wutkowski. A brief bio is attached. Let me know if this is sufficient. Thanks, Greg Gregory L. Williams, Ph.D., P.E. Engineering Branch Wilmington District U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 69 Darlington Avenue Wilmington, NC 28403-1398 Ph: 910-251-4767 Cell: 910-508-7926 Fax: 910-251-4965 greg.l.williams@usace.army.mil

Bio

Mike Wutkowski is a coastal engineer in the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Wilmington

District. He has 36 years of experience in the design of breach closures, storm damage reduction

studies, beach fill design, navigation channel impacts on adjacent beaches, breakwater design,

groin design, revetment design, deep draft navigation, sedimentation and circulation studies. He

has performed hydrologic and hydraulic studies. Mike developed the computer programs

COSTDAM and GRANDUC, which analyze beach nourishment projects. He has served as the

South Atlantic Division’s regional technical specialist for coastal projects. Mike is a P.E. and

has a B.S. and M.S. from the University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee with a year of post-graduate

study at Northwestern University.

Publications:

Wutkowski, M. 2004, Hatteras Breach Closure, Shore and Beach 72(2) pp 20-24;

Wutkowski, M. 2004, Closing the Hatteras Breach, Coastal Voice, March 2004 pp 5-8;

Thompson, E. F., Wutkowski, M., and Scheffner, N. W. 1996 Risk-Based Analysis of Coastal

Projects, Proceedings of the 25th International Conference on Coastal Engineering, Orlando,

FL;

Herman C. Miller, Member, ASCE, William A. Dennis, Member, ASCE, and Michael J.

Wutkowski 1996 A Unique Look at Oregon Inlet, NC, USA, Conference Proceeding,

Coastal Engineering pp. 4517-4530;

Wutkowski, M. J. and Fore, D. B.. 1996 Kure Beach, NC Beach Nourishment Project: Plan

Formulation Using Wilmington District's Coastal Storm Damage Assessment Model Costdam.

Proc. 1993 National Conference on Beach Preservation Technology. Florida Shore and Beach

Preservation Association, Tallahassee, Florida;

Barry W. Holliday, Michael J. Wutkowski, and Limberios Vallianos 1984 Shoaling Problems

and Improvements Sunny Point, North Carolina, Conference Proceeding Dredging and

Dredged Material Disposal, Raymond L. Montgomery, ed., 1984;

   CRC‐14‐15 

 April 28, 2014 

 MEMORANDUM  TO:  Coastal Resources Commission  FROM:  Tancred Miller  SUBJECT:  Sea‐Level Rise Assessment Update ‐H819 Requirements, CRC Science Panel 

Involvement and Timeframe  Section 2.(c) of House Bill 819 (Session Law 2012‐202, attached) directs the Commission and the CRC Science Panel to complete a sea‐level rise (SLR) assessment study that must include specific analyses and meet certain deadlines. There are two major components to the required study: an update to the 2010 NC SLR Assessment Report regarding the science; and an economic & environmental study of the costs versus benefits of adopting SLR‐related rules and policies. The two components will be conducted as separate (but related) studies.   The legislation requires the Science Panel to complete certain partsof the study. Other parts of the study, such as the economic analysis, will not be assigned to the Science Panel. Additional ad hoc members to work with the Science Panel on the scientific assessment will be appointed by the CRC Chair. Mike Lopazanski’s memo CRC‐14‐14 explains the process for identifying ad hoc members. Staff proposes that the CRC recruit a volunteer ad hoc panel to perform the economic and environmental cost‐benefit study.   The first legislative deadline is March 31, 2015, when the Science Panel must deliver a draft of the SLR assessment report to the CRC. The final study, including the assessment report and the cost‐benefit study, is due to the General Assembly on or before March 1, 2016.  At your May meeting, Chairman Gorham will present you with a draft charge to the Science Panel for the SLR Assessment report, for discussion and approval. The approved charge, along with the legislation, shouldclearly describe what the Science Panel is being asked to do. Staff has drafted a timeline for the study that shows the major milestones that must be met to comply with the legislative mandate:  2014  May 1  CRC receives the 2013 list of nominees for ad hoc additions to the Science Panel for the 

SLR Assessment Report, and is invited to submit additional nominations.   May 14‐15  1.CRC considers a charge to the Panel for approval. 

North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources

Pat McCrory John E. Skvarla, III Governor Secretary

2. CRC discusses nominees for the assessment report update. Chairman appoints ad hoc members following the May CRC meeting. 

  3. CRC initiates call for nominees for a volunteer panel for the SLR cost‐benefit study.  June xx  Staff contacts assessment report authors to schedule an in‐person meeting.  July xx  Science Panel and ad hoc members meet to review the scope of work and develop a 

process for conducting the study (including report outline, methodology, individual assignments, standards for consensus, deadlines, minority opinion, etc.) 

 July 30‐31  1. CRC finalizes scope of work for cost‐benefit study. 

2. CRC considers nominees for the cost‐benefit study. Chairman makes appointments after the July CRC meeting. 

 Sept/Oct xx  Prior to the October 22‐23 CRC meeting, Science Panel and ad hoc members meet to 

review progress on assessment report, and the cost‐benefit panel will meet to develop their study charter. Staff will report on progress at the CRC meeting. 

 December 31  Science Panel meets to finalize first order draft of assessment report.   2015  February xx  Science Panel meets to finalize second order draft. Staff includes draft in meeting 

materials for March 2015 CRC meeting (date TBD), and sends to cost‐benefit panel.  March xx  Science Panel presents the draft assessment report to the CRC. Draft report becomes 

public and CRC invites public comments.  May xx  CRC holds a public hearing on the draft assessment report at their first meeting after 

March 31st. CRC requests revisions to the draft assessment report, if desired. Draft remains open for public comment. 

 June xx  Cost‐benefit panel meets to finalize first order draft and staff forwards to the CRC for 

review. CRC requests revisions, if desired.  September xx  Cost‐benefit panel meets to finalize second order draft; CRC releases for public input.  December 31  Public comment closes on assessment report and cost‐benefit study.  2016  January  Staff forwards all public comments to Science Panel and cost‐benefit panel for them to 

consider amendments to the draft reports. Staff includes final reports in meeting materials for the February CRC meeting. 

 February xx  Study panels present final reports to the CRC. CRC delivers final reports, including public 

comments and any adopted or under‐consideration SLR policies to the Environmental Review Commission. 

Session law 2012-202,SECTION 2.(c)  

The Coastal Resources Commission shall direct its Science Panel to deliver its five‐year updated assessment  to  its  March  2010  report  entitled  "North  Carolina  Sea  Level  Rise  Assessment Report" to the Commission no later than March 31, 2015.   The Commission shall direct the Science Panel to include in its five‐year updated assessment a comprehensive review and summary of peer‐reviewed scientific literature that address the full range  of  global,  regional,  and North  Carolina‐specific  sea‐level  change  data  and  hypotheses, including  sea‐level  fall,  no  movement  in  sea  level,  deceleration  of  sea‐level  rise,  and acceleration of sea‐level rise.   When summarizing research dealing with sea level, the Commission and the Science Panel shall define the assumptions and  limitations of predictive modeling used to predict future sea‐level scenarios.   The Commission shall make this report available to the general public and allow for submittal of public comments including a public hearing at the first regularly scheduled meeting after March 31, 2015.   Prior  to  and  upon  receipt  of  this  report,  the  Commission  shall  study  the  economic  and environmental  costs  and  benefits  to  the North Carolina  coastal  region  of  developing,  or  not developing, sea‐level regulations and policies.   The  Commission  shall  also  compare  the  determination  of  sea  level  based  on  historical calculations versus predictive models.   The Commission shall also address the consideration of oceanfront and estuarine shorelines for dealing with sea‐level assessment and not use one single sea‐level rate for the entire coast. For oceanfront shorelines, the Commission shall use no fewer than the four regions defined in the April 2011 report entitled "North Carolina Beach and Inlet Management Plan" published by the Department  of  Environment  and  Natural  Resources.  In  regions  that  may  lack  statistically significant data,  rates  from adjacent  regions may be considered and modified using generally accepted  scientific  and  statistical  techniques  to  account  for  relevant  geologic  and hydrologic processes.   The Commission shall present a draft of this report, which shall also  include the Commission's Science Panel  five‐year assessment update,  to  the general public and receive comments  from interested parties no later than December 31, 2015, and present these reports, including public comments and any policies  the Commission has adopted or may be considering  that address sea‐level  policies,  to  the General Assembly  Environmental  Review  Commission  no  later  than March 1, 2016.