nordic fb stakeholder group meeting€¦ · presentation on the overall status and nordic fb...

Nordic FB Stakeholder Group

meeting

SHG-M.1

Copenhagen

Agenda

1. Welcome and tour de table (9.00-9.20)

2. Objective and agenda (9.20-9.30)

3. Presentation on the overall status and Nordic FB project (9.30-10.00)

4. Presentation on FB capacity calculation and the first results (10.00-11.00)

5. Coffee break (11.00-11.20)

6. Presentation by NRAs: what is their view on FB, and what are the expectations from the Stakeholder Group (11.20-11.30)

7. Discussion with market representatives: what is their view on FB, and what are the expectations from the Stakeholder Group (11.30-12.30)

8. Lunch (12.30-13.30)

9. Discussion on a market information tool and set out actions (13.30-14.30)

10. Open discussion (14.30-15.30)

Objective and scope of the Stakeholder Group

The focus of the Stakeholder Group is to provide the project with stakeholder views on the FB approach.

The objectives of the Stakeholder group are: To ensure knowledge transfer and information exchange between

the Nordic FB project and stakeholders

To discuss market results and get detailed input from stakeholders on specific issues

To ensure that the stakeholders receive the market information they need and that the stakeholders requirements are fulfilled

The Stakeholder group will only give its opinion on certain issues and will not have any mandate to make decisions. Please note that the Nordic FB project will continue to organize Stakeholder Forums with a broader audience than the Stakeholder group.

Agenda





5. Coffee break (11.00-11.20)



8. Lunch (12.30-13.30)



A short reminder – What's it all about

Obtain more efficient utilization of the power system……. More correct power prices and flows

…. by providing a grid model to the market algorithm The market, not the operators, will prioritize limited exchange capacity

between (bidding zone) borders and critical grid components

Our "buzz-words": PTDFs and RAMs are the FB parameters providing transmission

capacity to the market algorithm and replacing the NTC value

Base case is the forecasted state of the power system at each hour. This is used for calculating the FB parameters

• State of the grid including load and generation (on a nodal base)

GSKs are the weights used for aggregating nodes to bidding zones

CNEs are Critical Grid Components (to be monitored by the market algorithm)

FRMs are uncertainty margins on the CNEs

Where is the project right now

A prototype tool for FB capacity calculation has been developed

The work on obtaining an industrialized FB tool is starting

FB parameters have been calculated for Jan-Apr 2015 120 days in total

17 days of missing grid models

FB Market solutions have been calculated by the "PCR Simulation Facility" for those months Market simulations comprise The Nordics, CWE, UK, The Baltics, Poland (New

NTC-solutions where also calculated to form a relevant comparison)

FB market results have been obtained for 97 days

Not sufficient quality of current FB parameters Quality of grid models/non-converging grid models

Quality of CNE definition

FRM implementation

Forecasting

Choice of GSK strategy

Continuous simulations was started in week 43 Aim is to improve the quality of the calculation process, tools and FB parameters

Dec. 2013

Oct. 2014

Aug 2015

Nov 2015

May 2016

March 2017

FB Project Roadmap

PFS

• Welfare estimates

• Road map FB

FS-I

• FB Methodology

• Prel. Protot. tool

• Economic indicators

FS-II

• Final protot. tool

• Market assessment

• SH communication

• Req. for Ind. tool

2015 2016 2014 2013 2012 2017 2018

Develop concept May 2013

DP1

Prepare for Implementation

Oct 2015

DP2

Project Phases

Timeline - CACM

Sept 2017

Prepare for implementation

• Internal and external

parallel runs • Improving the

prototype FB tool • Prepare investment in

an industrialized FB tool

• Stakeholder acceptance

Investment Sign contracts March 2017

DP3

Initiation stage Sept 2012

DP0

Implementation

• Internal and external parallel runs

• Develop an industrialized FB tool • NRA Approvals and TSO

agreements • Trained operational personnel • Final stakeholder acceptance

Decision process

FB parallel runs/Market simulations

TSOs to prop. CCM

Stable Proto-type

Oct 2015

Sept 2016

Jan 2018

March 2018

March 2017

Sept 2017

Prototype in operation in the //run

Industrial tool in operation In the //run

Weekly internal parallel runs Weekly external

parallel runs

Check if quality requirements are met

Check if quality requirements are met

Daily External parallel runs

Publish daily results

Access to CGM-E D-2

NRAs approve CCM

Start publish results

Project organisation

Work Group 1

FB Methodology Convener: Trond Jensen (SN) Support: Pieter Schavemaker (E-Bridge)

Work Group 3

Welfare Economics

Convener: Ulrik Møller (EdK) Support: Zongyu Liu (E-Bridge)

MSG (Steering committee)

Kristin Munthe (SN) Søren Dupont Kristensen (EdK) Juha Kekkonen (FG) Ulla Sandborgh (Svk)

Work Group 2

IT-Development

Convener: Mattias Ehn (Svk) Support: Oliver Obert (E-Bridge )

FBG / PMO

Convener: Pieter Schavemaker (E-Bridge) Project manager: Trond Jensen (SN) Ulrik Møller (EdK) Lasse Konttinen (FG) Mattias Ehn (Svk) Lennart Rosengren (Svk)

RGN

Øivind Rue (SN) Carsten Jensen (EdK) Reima Päivinen (FG) Erik Ek (Svk)

Operational Reference Group

Convener: Jan Hystad (SN) Support: Zongyu Liu (E-Bridge)

Detailed plan and timeline for the

industrialized tool

Oct 2015

Sept 2016

March2017

Jan 2016

RFI

DP2

Specification

RFQ

DP2.1

Procurement

DP3

System construction

Trial Phase // Run

Agenda





5. Coffee break (11.00-11.20)



8. Lunch (12.30-13.30)



FB capacity calculation and the first results

- Table of contents -

Re cap on potential benefits of going flow based

Better management of loop flows

Better management of internal CNE’s

2 cases indicated the potential benefit of FB

Impact on price convergence

Re-cap on potential benefits of going flow

based – transit flows in meshed grid (1/2)

Flow Based

Line Max flow A B C

A -> B 1000 MW 33 % - 33 % 0

B -> C 1000 MW 33 % 67 % 0

A -> C 1000 MW 67 % 33 % 0

A

C

B

67 %

33 %

To day (NTC)

Line Max flow

A -> B 750 MW

B -> C 750 MW

A -> C 750 MW

Max flow on lines are 1000 MW

Re-cap on potential benefits of going flow

based – transit flows in meshed grid (2/2)

A

C

B

1500 MW

1500 MW

750 750

750

A

C

B

2000 MW

2000 MW

1000 1000

1000

667

667 1333

500

1000 500

A

C

B

750 MW

1500 MW

750 750

750MW

1000 1000

1000 1000

2000

750 750

And the NTC and FB domains

Netposition in A

Netposition in B 1500

1500

Constrained by BC

Constrained by AC

Constrained by AB

A

C

B

1000 1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

2000

Management of Southbound flows in

Norway – Jan 5'th 2015

1. Exchanges between NO1 to NO2 creates significant transit flows on the line "Blåfalli-Mauranger"

2. The line "Blåfalli-Mauranger" correspond to the border "NO5-NO2", and thus the NTC are limited to 200 MW to avoid overloads on the line, the line NO1-NO2” being restricted as well

3. The thermal limit on Blåfalli-Mauranger however, is 900 MW

NO1 NO5

NO2

Flow

Blåfalli-Mauranger

0

Hour

Hour

Flow Prices Welfare

Managing internal CNEs by reducing X-

border capacity may be difficult, hence too

much reduction might take place

NTC Method

FB: No direct limit on the DK2-SE4 border, and larger trade is possible

NTC: The DK2-SE4 border was limited some hours of Feb. 8'th in order to avoid overloads on the West Coast Cut

Better management of internal CNEs

DK2 – SE4

Feb 8'th 2015: Limitation of Øresund in order to manage an internal CNE in Sweden ("The West Coast Cut")

∆Hourly welfare

FB: The West Coast-cut has a limit, but is not actually overloading, or limiting the market on Feb. 8'th

Standard deviation of Nordic prices (Jan-Apr 2015) (ordered from high to low values)

0 500 1000 1500 2000 25000

5

10

15

20

25

hours

Sta

nd

ard

de

via

tio

n o

f N

ord

ic p

rice

s (

Eu

ro)

FB

NTC


0 10 20 30 40 50 608

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

hours

Sta

nd

ard

de

via

tio

n o

f N

ord

ic p

rice

s (

Eu

ro)

FB

NTC


1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 24000

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

hours

Sta

nd

ard

de

via

tio

n o

f N

ord

ic p

rice

s (

Eu

ro)

FB

NTC

Price volatility

-1.2

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

DK1 DK2 FI NO1 NO2 NO3 NO4 NO5 SE1 SE2 SE3 SE4

€/M

Wh

FB impact on standard deviation of pricesJanuary to April 2015

Agenda





5. Coffee break (11.00-11.20)



8. Lunch (12.30-13.30)



Market information tool

A switch from NTC to FB is a big change, not only for TSOs,

NRAs, PXs, but for market participants as well

The TSOs would like to facilitate the transition to FB for

market participants by providing a market information tool

In essence a tool that does not only provide data, but information

A tool that not only provides the FB capacity domain, but additional

insights into it and views on trading possibilities as well

A tool that provides a grip on FB capacity and allows to replace the

NTC-mindset by a FB one

We would like to develop this tool with you, through an

interactive and iterative process

CACM GL

Article 20: Introduction of flow-based capacity calculation methodology

9. The TSOs of each capacity calculation region applying

the flow-based approach shall establish and make

available a tool which enables market participants to

evaluate the interaction between cross-zonal

capacities and cross-zonal exchanges between

bidding zones.

Trigger the dialogue

Key question: what do you need?

This meeting: trigger the dialogue on the market information tool by showing the example from CWE

Next meeting: gather your ideas

Second-next meeting: first prototype of the Nordic FB market information tool

Oct 2015

Sept 2016

March2017

Jan 2015

DP2

Specification

Develop Prototype together with SHG

DP2.1

Fine-tuning together with SHG

DP3

Example: CWE market information tool

All CWE market information is published on the CASC

website:

http://www.casc.eu/en/Market-data/Implicit-Allocation

The market information tool is called the ‘utility tool’, that

can be downloaded from CASC as well

The information published in the utility tool is described

in the publication handbook:

http://www.casc.eu/media/CWE%20FB%20Publications/

20150417_CWE_%20CASC%20Publication%20Handbo

ok_final.pdf








http://www.casc.eu/media/CWE FB Publications/20150417_CWE_ CASC Publication Handbook_final.pdf




Example: CWE market information tool

- from first prototype to final tool -

First prototype

Utility tool available on the CASC website

New dates can be selected by using the drop

down boxes, and corresponding data is

downloaded automatically from CASC

Next steps

Key question: what do you need?

For next meeting, we would like to ask you to think over

what would be your needs if the Nordic TSOs apply a FB

capacity calculation rather than an NTC one.

Agenda





5. Coffee break (11.00-11.20)



8. Lunch (12.30-13.30)



nordic fb stakeholder group meeting€¦ · presentation on the overall status and nordic fb...

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