noam bernstein - nekudadm - derisking market with research
TRANSCRIPT
Working on your...
MVP Gen2
Product Acceptance
OR ?
worried about...
I don’t need it I don’t understand it I won’t pay for it I won’t recommend it
The face of Market Risk
Impossible to mitigate in house Irrational by human nature Hard to quantify Unpredictable path to solution Susceptible to opinions and intuitions
Challenges of Market Risk
Market risk is comprised of 2 types:
Category risk impacts all
players
Private risk Product-Market
my fit
Your business inherits inherent risks of your category • User expectations • Product economics & lifecycle • Retail & channel partners power • Regulation • Supply chain & Production • Technology dependencies & hurdles • Investment & ROI cycles
https://9to5mac.com/2016/04/11/apple-watch-sales-
2015-2016/
http://appleinsider.com/articles/16/06/16/jp-morgan-
downgrades-apple-stock-expectations-on-negative-
macro-trends-apple-watch-forecast
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-
3147047/Will-Apple-Watch-flop-Analyst-drops-sales-
predictions-3-MILLION-figures-suggest-s-popular-
iPod.html
Nobody is immune to market risk
Nobody is immune to market risk
by
RESEARCH
YOU CAN Mitigate your Private risk
The Good News
Diabetes algorithm go to market
Empathy
Planning Logic
Empathy – listening to needs and pains
http://www.bresslergroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/header_empathy_1.png
“...people don’t know what they want until
you show them” Steve Jobs
(so don’t ask them what
they want!)
Don’t ask me
About my pains What frustrates me?
Where do I get stuck?
Ask me
About my life How my day/work feels?
What is meaningful for me? for Features (even if I think I know!)
Meaning
Functionality
Challenge: Leap across the chasm
Credit: Kozatch Pyramid
Features: Functionality
Benefits: What I get from it
Meanings: How my life might change
Pleasure
Convenience
Usability
Reliability
Aim to create value beyond function
Who to ask? Identify your segments
The Chasm
Different profiles help you roadmap
MVP
GEN2
How many interviews?
2-3 to get the interview protocol
right
6-20 depending
on segments resources
& risk
Interview plan: avoiding your own bias
#1: Who are they? (Demographics) #2: Their jobs, needs, pains? (psychographics) #3: Concept boards / co-creation
Empathy
Planning Logic
Logic – achieving confidence
Planning Research that will drive confident choice and Action
Executing: Questions Answers Choices Action
Planning: Questions Answers Choices Action
Connecting subjective insights to statistical trends builds confidence
Quant 70-200 depending on segments Validate profiles Link profiles to segments
Macro Reports Find fitting segments Size your market
Qual 6-20 interviews Discover needs & pains Build Profiles
Ensure your data links to Macro reports
Qual: Your specific Need-related
(psychographic) profiles.
Macro reports: Typically generic
demographic data (age, income, segment size)
Quant: Specific profile
questions
AND demographic
validation
Example
My profiles: • Willingness to wear
medical watch • Wrist size (Gender)
Macro reports:
Age Gender Medical condition Insurance
Quant: Will you wear watch?
Wrist size?
AND Gender + Age
+ Medical condition
Structure of a short quant questionnaire
#1 Demographics (easy to answer) #2 psychographics (my profiles) -----Show Concept boards---- #3 Collect immediate (gut) reactions #4 More thoughtful reactions
Empathy
Planning Logic
Planning – making it happen
Validate early to reduce the costs of “no-go” or “change” decisions (INSEAD)
Late Decisions have Substantial negative financial impact
Early decisions have minimal negative financial impact
$$$$
50%
100%
75%
25%
0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Cost
months
Start by feeding & validating the MRD
Concept Boards Validate Concept for PRD
P.O.C Alpha Validate Key functions & benefits
Demo
Validate benefits for SW/HW Spec
Beta Test Validate design
MVP Launch Validate Market
User Research Validate needs for MRD
SRR SDR
PDR CDR
FDR
Existing R&D deliverables Arrive very late
new deliverables simulate early
Accurately defined Low-Fi simulations can be good enough
Empathy
Planning Logic
Poker apps & women players
Industrial Design Bezalel 2002
8 years active designer & design manager
>25 products launched in global markets
> millions units sold of products I designed
failed miserably with a few, too
MBA Strategy major IDC 2010
6 years guiding MBA real strategic consulting projects
Nekuda Design Management physical & digital IOT Innovation
Global Consumer Electronics Samsung, Haier, PepsiCo
NOAM BERNSTEIN
NOAM BERNSTEIN
http://www.nekudadm.com/
www.linkedin.com/in/noam-bernstein-651ab01
Thank you!