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Dangote Sugar Refinery Plc: Repackaging for Additional Markets
December 08-
2010
Disclaimer Policy
This publication is produced by FSDH Securities Limited (FSDH Sec) a subsidiary of First Securities Discount House Limited (FSDH) solely for the information of users who are expected to make their own investment
decisions without undue reliance on any information or opinions contained herein. The opinions contained in the report should not be interpreted as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy any investment. FSDH Sec may invest substantially in securities of
companies using information contained herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment services for companies mentioned herein. Whilst every care has been taken in preparing this document, no
responsibility or liability is accepted by any member of the FSDH for actions taken as a result of information provided in this publication.
FSDH Equity Research Report
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RRREEEDDDUUUCCCEEE
Current Price N17.00
Fair Value N11.32
Beta 1.33
Alpha Coefficient 0.09
R2 28.59%
Z-Score 5.70
Executive Summary
Dangote Sugar Ref inery Plc (Dangote Sugar) was incorporated on January 4, 2005 as a public limited liability company.
The company commenced business in March 2000 as a sugar division of Dangote Industries Limited (DIL) and was listed
on the N igerian Stock Exchange (NSE) on March 8, 2007 following a successful In itial Public Offering (IPO) through an
Offer for Sale of 3billion shares at N18.00 per share. Prior to the IPO, all the issued and fu lly paid ordinary shares of the
company were held by DIL and Alhaji Aliko Dangote in the proportion of 99% and 1% respectively. Although the ownership
structure of the company has changed, DIL still has major ity shares in the company.
The company’s sugar refining factor y in Apapa Port, Lagos was commissioned in 2001 with an init ial capacity to process
600,000MT of raw sugar per annum. The refinery has since undergone two expansions, increasing the production capacity
to about 1.44million MT per annum, making it the largest sugar refinery in Sub-Saharan Africa and second largest in the
world. The company is currently working towards completing an expansion of the refinery by an addit ional 1million MT
annual capacity. Dangote Sugar ’s principal activities involve ref ining of sugar into edible sugar and sale of refined sugar.
The company is currently rebranding some of its brands in order to reach out to wider customers.
The focus of the company is to become a global, integrated, low cost sugar producer focused on maximizing long term
shareholders’ returns while establishing a leading presence in domestic and regional African markets, with increasing
international focus. As the second largest sugar refinery in the wor ld with new Ion Exchange Raising (IER) technology and
efficient 18MW power supply system generated in-house, Dangote Sugar has over 70% of the domest ic sugar market
share. Its state of the art world class sugar refinery and process is ISO 9001:2000 International Quality Management
Certificat ion.
As at December 2009, the total assets of Dangote Sugar were f inanced by a mix of equity and liabilities in the proportion of
52.87% and 47.13%, respectively. The total assets stood at N78.71bn, while tota l liabilities stood at N37.09bn. The short
term liabilities stood at N35.04bn, accounting for 94.46% of the total liabilities, while the long-term liabilities stood at
N2.06bn accounting for 5.54% of the total liabilities. The company did not have prior charge long term liabilit ies as at
December 2009. The debt ratio, which is the proportion of the company’s total assets that is financed by long term and
short term liabilities increased to 47.13% in 2009 from 43.91% in 2008. The relationship between the current assets and
current liabilit ies reflects a concurrent increase in current liabilities and current assets, but with the current liabilities
increasing faster than the current assets. Consequent ly, the current ratio declined to 1.74x in 2009 from 1.80x in 2008.
Similarly, the quick ratio dropped to 1.34x in 2009 and from 1.41x in 2008.
The challenging operating environment in 2009 impacted adversely on the cost structure of the company as the effort to
grow the turnover could not translate to improvements in profitability. Turnover increased marginally from N80.67bn in 2008
to N82.40bn in 2009, representing a growth of 2.14% but recorded a Compound Annual Decline Rate (CADR) of 0.55%
from 2006 to 2009. The analysis of the turnover by products shows that sugar accounted for 99.93% of the turnover while
molasses accounted for 0.07%. The return on equity stood at 31.69% in 2009, down from 67.03% in 2008. Also, the return
on assets stood at 24.89%, a decline from 51.86% recorded in 2008. Return on capital employed dropped from 88.94% in
2008 to 44.85% in 2009.
An investment in the shares of Dangote Sugar on March 2007 has grown by 27.93% as at the date of this report and
represents a CAGR of 8.56%. Applying two valuat ion methods to value the shares of Dangote Sugar; we arrive at a fair
value of N11.32 per share. We estimate a dividend per share of N1.05 for FY 2010 based on dividend payout of 75%.
Buying the stock at the current market price of N17 and the price drops to our fair value of N11.32 and adding the present
value of the 5-year forecast dividend, investors will earn a tota l loss of 9.85%. Relating this loss to the cost of Equity
estimated by CAPM at 23.24%, investment in Dangote Sugar’s shares at the current price will earn a negative alpha return
of 33.09%. The 2010 forward earnings yield based on our fa ir value generates 12.40%, while the 2010 forward Dividend
Yield based on N1.05 Dividend Per Share at our fair value generates 9.30%. The forward earnings and dividend yields at
current market price are 8.26% and 6.20%, respect ively.
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FSDH Research
1.0 Corporate Information Dangote Sugar Refinery Plc (Dangote Sugar) was incorporated on January 4, 2005 as a public
limited liability company. The company commenced business in March 2000 as a sugar division of
Dangote Industries Limited (DIL) and was listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) on March 8,
2007 following a successful Initial Public Offering (IPO) through an Offer for Sale of 3billion shares at
N18.00 per share. Prior to the IPO, all the issued and fully paid ordinary shares of the company were
held by DIL and Alhaji Aliko Dangote in the proportion of 99% and 1% respectively. Although the
ownership structure of the company has changed, DIL s till has majority shares in the company
controlling about 67.66% of the ownership of the company while Alhaji Aliko Dangote controlled 3.71%
and the balance of 28.63% is held by other institutional and individual investors.
The company’s sugar refining factory in Apapa Port, Lagos was commissioned in 2001 with an initial
capacity to process 600,000MT of raw sugar per annum. The refinery has since undergone two
expansions, increasing the production capacity to about 1.44million MT per annum, making it the
largest sugar refinery in Sub-Saharan Africa and second largest in the world. In December 2007,
Dangote Sugar successfully exported its first consignment of 1,500MT of sugar to Ghana; the company
is currently working towards completing an expansion of the refinery by an additional 1million MT
annual capacity.
Dangote Sugar’s goal is to become a global, integrated, low cost sugar producer focused on
maximizing long term shareholder returns while establishing a leading presence in domestic and
regional African markets, with increasing international focus. As the second largest sugar refinery in the
world with new Ion Exchange Raising (IER) technology and efficient 18MW power supply system
generated in-house, Dangote Sugar has over 70% of the domestic sugar market share. Its state of the
art world class sugar refinery and process is ISO 9001:2000 Inte rnational Quality Management
Certification.
The company has won several awards as an attestation to its market leadership and commitment to its
goals.
1.1 Business: Dangote Sugar’s principal activities involve the refining of sugar into edible sugar and
sale of refined sugar. The company produces and packages unfortified and Vitamin A -Fortified White
Sugar for direct consumption under the brand name Dangote Sugar in 50kg bags. Its Vitamin A
Fortified sugar is a fine white granulated sugar, refined to the highest quality and dissolves easily. This
all purpose sugar is ideal for table use, baking and sweetening of beverages. Its Unfortified Industrial
White Sugar product is a specially processed sugar grade used by pharmaceuticals, food and
beverages manufacturing companies.
In order to meet the changing needs of the retail consumers, capture additional market, stay ahead of
the pack in the immediate markets and enhance the value for the company and all stakeholders ,
Dangote Sugar has embarked on repackaging project tagged “Retail Pack Project”. It is intended that
the packaging of these customer friendly packages will make the Vitamin A fortified refined sugar
available in 1kg, 250g and 500g. The Chairman of the company, Alhaji Aliko Dangote notes that the
company’s focus is on continued growth and expansion.
Although the ownership structure of the company has
changed, DIL still has majority
shares in the company.
The refinery has since undergone two expansions, increasing the production capacity to about 1.44million MT per annum, making it the largest sugar refinery in Sub-Saharan Africa and second
largest in the world.
Dangote Sugar’s principal activities involve the refining of sugar into edible sugar and
sale of refined sugar
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FSDH Research
2.0 Review of Nigerian Economy
Provisional data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicates that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) grew by 7.69% in Q2 2010, slightly higher than the revised 7.36% as at Q1, 2010.
Overall, the Nigerian economy was relatively stable with mixed outcomes. According to Central Bank of
Nigeria (CBN) growth rates in major monetary aggregates were below targets in HY1, 2010. Aggregate
credit to the economy grew by 12.38% lower than the target of 55.57% in 2010, while the growth in
credit to the private sector contracted by 1.88% against the growth target of 31.54% in 2010. Inflatio n
rate (year-on-year) moderated but it remained at double digit at the end of 2009 and stood at 13.4% as
at October, 2010. The exchange rate, which remained volatile in 2009, remained stable in HY1, 2010.
Interest rates, particularly, inter-bank rates which rose in most part of 2009 as a fall out of the global
economic and financial crises, have moderated considerably in the face of huge liquidity in the inter-
bank market and quantitative easing strategy of the CBN to salvage the banking system from an
imminent collapse. However, the reluctance of banks to extend credit to the private sector remains a
big threat to domestic real sector. In addition, the recent decision of the MPC to hike rate is a
disincentive to real sector borrowing. Thus, the resolution of the credit crisis will help to boost economic
growth in the domestic economy.
We reiterate the need for the nation’s economic managers to implement policies that can lay a solid
foundation for the economy in the medium to long run especially in the area of agriculture and
manufacturing in order to broaden the revenue base of the country. The President, Dr. Goodluck
Table 1: Shareholding Structure as at December 31, 2009
Shareholders No of Shares Held % of Shareholding
Dangote Industries Limited 8,119,200,000 67.66
Others 3,880,800,000 32.34
Total 12,000,000,000 100.00
Table 3: Company Summary
Ticker DANGSUGAR
Sector Food/Beverages &
Tobacco
Date of Incorporation January 04, 2005
Date of Listing March 08, 2007
Financial Year End December
Number of Fully Paid Share 12,000,000,000
Current Capitalization(NGN) 204,000,000,000
NSE Capitalization (NGN) 7,885,061,414,411
% of NSE Capitalisation 2.59
52 Week high NGN 21.00
52 Week low NGN 14.14
YTD Return (%) 19.21
52 Weeks Average Volu me Traded 3,523,922
Trailing EPS NGN 1.08
Trailing P/E ratio (X) 15.74
Table 2: Directors’ Shareholding as at May 31 2010
Director Position No of
Shares
Alhaji Aliko Dangote Chairman 444,710,239
Alhaji Sani Dangote Non Ex-Director Nil
Mr. Suleiman Olarinde Ag. Mgr. Director/CEO
Nil
Mr. Olakunle Alake Non Ex-Director 6,864,000
Ms. Bennedikter Molokwu
Non Ex-Director 1,383,400
Dr. Konyinsola Ajayi (SAN)
Non Ex-Director Nil
Mr. Uzoma Nwankwo Non Ex-Director 892,832
Alhaji Abdu Dantata Non Ex-Director Nil
Provisional data from the
National Bureau of Statistics
(NBS) indicates that Nigeria’s
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
grew by 7.69% in Q2 2010,
slightly higher than the revised
7.36% as at Q1, 2010.
We reiterate the need for the
nation’s economic managers to
implement polic ies that can lay
a solid foundation for the economy in the medium to long
run especially in the area of
agriculture and manufacturing in
order to broaden the revenue
base of the country.
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FSDH Research
Jonathan appears determined in laying a strong foundation to overcome the problem in the power
(electricity) industry by bringing the sector under his office. There are also plans to privatize Power
Holding Corporation of Nigeria (PHCN) in order to run the corporation more efficiently and profitably in
the interest of the consumers.
The outlook of the foreign exchange rate in the medium term appears stable as the CBN is determined
to meet all genuine demand for foreign exchange. The rising price of oil at the international market is
also a good development for the foreign exchange market.
We believe that the current administration would implement policies to diversify the productive base of
the economy so that the economy is less vulnerable to international oil price volatility. Furthermore, the
new administration is embarking on a number of reform agenda to stimulate the economy and
strengthen public expenditure management especially in job creation.
3.0 Review of Nigerian Manufacturing Sector
Our analysis of the operating environment shows that the manufacturing and distribution businesses in
Nigeria are faced with infrastructure challenges (relevant transportation and power). While government
is currently working to improve roads across the country through Public-Private-Participation (PPP)
arrangement, we believe the same effort should be extended to the rail transport across the country . In
order to meet their power needs, manufacturing companies invest heavily in alternative so urces of
power. The cost of acquiring and maintaining these equipments add substantially to the operating
costs. While the manufacturing firms sometimes shift some of these costs to their customers in form of
increase in the price of goods, the firms bear a portion of it. The extent of the shiftability also depends
on the elasticity of the product in question to price. Sometimes we notice a drop in demand, as a result
of increase in price. In addition to the problem of infrastructure, the current financial crisis and the
unwillingness of banks to lend has reduced credit to the real sector, while the available credit
commands high interest rates, thus increasing financing costs for the manufacturers. The combination
of these factors has limited the growth of the manufacturing sector in the country, despite the huge
market potentials within and in the neighboring countries. In the last few years, the manufacturing
sector has not witnessed significant improvement as the capacity utilization fluctuates between 35%
and 40%. Its contribution to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as at Q2, 2010 was 3.93% higher than
1.14% as at Q1, 2010, while the growth rate is 7.31%, higher than 6.42% in Q1, 2010. This is
considered too low for a country that has huge consumption power like Nigeria; having an estimated
market size of 150million. One of the opportunities for the operators in the Fast Moving Consumer
Goods (FMCG) industry is the growing middle class whose tastes and life style are changing for high
quality consumer goods and products.
The Nigerian manufacturing industry is relatively small in relation to the size of the domestic economy.
The sector has not grown remarkably over the years due to factors such as; neglect of the sector for
crude oil, epileptic power supply, collapsing infrastructure, among others. Although the Nigerian
government maintains that the industry is the main instrument of rapid growth, structural change and
self sufficiency, it has not pursued specific policies that can improve the performance of the
manufacturing industry. We however commend the recent efforts of the CBN to make soft loans
There are plans to privatize
Power Holding Corporation of
Nigeria (PHCN) in order to run
the corporation more efficiently
and profit ably in the interest of
the consumers.
The outlook of the foreign exchange rate in the medium term appears stable as the CBN is determined to meet all genuine demand for foreign
exchange.
The sector has not grown remarkably over the years due to factors such as; neglect of the sector for crude oil, epileptic power supply, collapsing infrastructure,
among others.
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FSDH Research
available to Small and Medium Scale Enterprises (SMEs) and to have an arrangement with Nigerian
banks to restructure some of the loans extended to the manufacturers. Some quoted manufacturing
companies, especially the highly capitalized stocks, managed to show impressive performance in the
face of the global economic and financial meltdown. While others, especially those with imported inputs
or had credit lines from foreign banks, which they did not hedge against exchange rate movement,
were hit by exchange rate losses. The fact that some of the Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCGs)
have low elasticity of demand to economic factors helped to insulate the revenue of the operators.
However, we note the possible negative impact of the current job cuts in the financial sector on
aggregate purchasing power in the long run.
4.0 Dangote Sugar Corporate Governance
The Board of Directors overseas the corporate governance procedure to ensure that it conforms to best
practice. It also constantly reviews the procedures in line with the dynamics of the business
environment. The Board ensures that its business is conducted in a fair manner. The Board delegates
the day-to-day running of the company’s affairs to the Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer
(MD/CEO). Also, an executive management committee supports the MD/CEO in this task. The Board
currently consists of eight members, the Chairman, Acting Managing Director and 6 non-executive
directors, out of which two are Independent Directors.
The standing committees of the company consist of:
The Finance Committee
The Establishment Committee, and
The Audit Committee
The Finance Committee is responsible for the assessment and monitoring of all risks associated with
the operations of the company; development and monitoring of the implementation of internal control
systems by management and assisting the Board in its responsibility relating to the o versight of the
company’s financial credit and risk management policies and procedures.
The Establishment Committee is responsible for reviewing the policy framework for employees and
remuneration issues; it also makes recommendations to the Board on all new Board appointments. The
Audit Committee ensures the independence and objectivity of the audit; reviewing the adequacy and
effectiveness of the company’s internal control policies prior to endorsement by the Board; and
directing and supervising investigations into matters within its scope.
4.1 Strategic Focus
Dangote Sugar’s goal is to become a global, integrated, low cost sugar producer focused on
maximizing long term shareholders ’ return while establishing a leading presence in domestic and
regional African markets, with increasing international focus. As the second largest sugar refinery in the
world with new Ion Exchange Raising (IER) technology and efficient 18MW power supply system
generated in-house, the company has over 70% of the domestic sugar market share.
Dangote Sugar’s goal is to become a global, integrated, low cost sugar producer
focused on maximizing long term shareholders’ return while establishing a leading presence in domestic and regional African markets, with increasing international focus.
The fact that some of the Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCGs) have low elasticity of demand to economic factors helped to insulate the revenue
of the operators.
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FSDH Research
Dangote Sugar’s strategic plans to reach these objectives include the following:
Expansion of current production capacity of existing refinery by 1.1million MT to a total of
2.5million MT refining capacity and become the largest sugar refinery in the world ;
Acquisition of domestic sugar producer, Savannah Sugar Company Limited, currently owned
by Dangote Industries Limited, to boost local sugar production and reduce cost of importing
raw sugar;
Continued exploitation of the favourable dynamics of the world sugar market to expand export
of products to other African countries and develop production capacity in Algeria;
Continued improvement on operational efficiencies to drive down cost and improve p rofitability;
Maximise local market opportunities with the expansion of our industrial customer base and
introduction of new packaging line for retail consumers;
Acquisition of vessel to improve fright cost and working capital management.
4.2 Strengths & Opportunities
Good liquidity position.
Good credit history in local financial market.
Strong roots in local markets and first-hand knowledge of local culture.
Expansion of production capacity.
Relative inelasticity of product demand.
Stable exchange rate.
4.3 Weaknesses & Threats
Reduction in purchasing power of the citizenry due to rising unemployment.
Inflationary pressure from global demand for commodities.
Inadequate physical infrastructure in the country.
Credit crunch in the system due to unwillingness of banks to lend money to the real sector.
Deteriorating margins.
5.0 Analysis & Recommendation Our analysis was based on Dangote Sugar’s Account for the period ended 12 months December 31, 2009, compared
with 12 months December 2008. For the computation of CAGR, the base period is 2006.
5.1 Capital Structure
Total shareholders’ funds of Dangote Sugar grew from
N32.63bn in 2008 to N41.61bn in 2009, translating to
an increase of 27.54% between the periods. The
increase in total shareholders’ fund was primarily
driven by 44.25% growth in revenue reserves which
was boosted by good profitability. The shareholders’
funds was made up of paid-up share capital, share
premium and revaluation reserves in the
14.42%
15.19%
70.39%
Composition of Shareholders' Funds - 2009
Paid Up Share capital
Share Premium
Revenue Reserve
The increase in total shareholders’ funds was primarily driven by 44.25% growth in revenue reserves which was boosted by good
profitability.
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FSDH Research
proportion of 14.42%,
15.19% and 70.39%,
respectively. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in the total shareholde rs’ funds between
2006 and 2009 stood at 14.15%. The long term assets of Dangote Sugar stood at N17.66bn in 2009 up
from N14.63bn in 2008 and represented a growth of 20.74%. The CAGR between 2006 and 2009
stood at 7.38%. The long term assets is made up of fixed assets which stood at N16.70bn a growth of
21.38% from 13.76bn in 2008 and the amount Dangote Sugar committed in the construction of a
refinery in Algeria, through a wholly owned company named Dangote Sucreire SPA which stood at
N968.13mn in 2009 an increase of 10.16% from N875.26mn in 2008.
The current assets increased by 40.19% to N61.04bn in 2009 from N43.54bn in 2008 on account of
increases in due from related companies which increased by 213.29% to N17.33bn from N5.53bn in
2008; cash & bank balances, increased by 15.27% to N22.88bn in 2009 from N19.85bn in 2008; stocks
increased by 52.24% to N14.09bn from N9.26bn in 2008 and trade debtors which increased by 10.08%
to N5.95bn from N5.4bn in 2008 while other debtors & prepayments decreased by 77.44% to
N790.35mn and from N3.50bn in 2008.
Due from DIL which stood at N15.07bn as at December, 2009 represent 86.91% of the total due from
related companies. The company said that related party transaction arose from collection from
customers and payment to suppliers by DIL on behalf of Dangote Sugar in addition to the utilization of
energy which is surplus to the company’s requirement. We are of the opinion this related arrangement
may lead to underutilization of resources for the individual companies. DIL should free -up this income
for Dangote Sugar. The total due from related companies accounted for about 22.02% of the total
assets of the company. Adding the long term assets and the current assets of the company together,
the total assets grew by 35.30% to N78.71bn in 2009 from N58.17bn in 2008, representing a
Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 26.37% between 2005 and 2009.
The total assets of Dangote Sugar were financed by a mix of equity and liabilities in the proportion of
52.87% and 47.13%, respectively. As at December 2009, the total assets stood at N78.71bn, while
total liabilities stood at N37.09bn. The short term liabilities stood at N35.04bn, accounting for 94.46% of
the total liabilities, while the long-term liabilities stood at N2.06bn accounting for 5.54% of the total
liabilities. The company did not have prior charge long term liabilities as at December 2009.
The total assets of Dangote Sugar were financed by a mix of equity and liabilities in the proportion of 52.87% and 47.13%, respectively.
27,978 25,956
32,627
41,613
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
2006 2007 2008 2009
N'm
n
Shareholders' Funds (2006 - 2009)
28,188 28,306 33,923
43,668 39,000
50,124 58,174
78,707
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
2006 2007 2008 2009
N'm
n
Capital Employed vs. Total Asets (2006 - 2009)
Capital Employed Total Asset
We are of the opinion this related arrangement may lead to underutilization of resources
for the individual companies.
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FSDH Research
Its long term liabilities are deferred taxation, which represented 70.68% of the long term liabilities and
staff gratuities representing 29.32% of the long term liabilities.
The company recorded improvement in its working capital in 2009 and maintained consistent decent
working capital since 2006. The working
capital stood at about N26.00bn at the end
of December 2009, a growth of 34.79%
from N19.29bn as at the end of the
previous year and recorded a CAGR of
23.16% between 2006 and 2009. The
prudent and efficiency gains from the
current management efforts have
enhanced the company working capital.
As a result of the good working capital
position the company maintained during the period, the current ratio and the quick ratio as at
December 2009 stood at 1.74x and 1.34x respectively.
The capital employed (i.e total assets less current liabilities) increased from N28.19bn in 2005 to
N43.67bn in 2009, representing a CAGR of 15.71% and achieved a growth of 28.73% between 2008
and 2009.
The debt ratio, which is the proportion of the company’s total assets that is financed by long term and
short term liabilities increased to 47.13% in 2009 from 43.91% in 2008.
5.2 Liquidity
The liquidity position of the company in 2009 remained strong and improved over 2008. The current
assets increased from N24.73bn in 2006 to N61.04bn in 2009, representing a CAGR of 35.14% and a
growth of 40.19% between 2008 and 2009. The major contributors to the growth between the
immediate two years are: cash & bank balances (up by 15.27% to N22.88n), due from related
companies (up 213.29% to N17.33bn), Stock (up 52.24% to N14.09bn) and trade debtors (up 10.08%
to N5.95bn). Similarly, the current liabilities increased from N10.81bn in 2006 to N35.040bn in 2009,
representing a CAGR of 47.99% between the period and an increase of 44.48% between 2008 and
2009. The relationship between the current assets and current liabilities reflects a concurrent increase
in current liabilities and current assets, but with the current liabilitie s increasing faster than the current
assets. Consequently, the current ratio declined to 1.74x in 2009 from 1.80x in 2008. Similarly, the
quick ratio dropped to 1.34x in 2009 and from 1.41x in 2008. Although the current ratio and the quick
ratio dropped between the last two years, the company still maintained very healthy short term liquidity
position. This indicates that it can meet its short term obligations as at when due.
13,920 14,271
19,292
26,004
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2006 2007 2008 2009
N'm
n
Working Capital (2006 - 2009)
The company recorded improvement in its working capital in 2009 and maintained
consistent decent working
capital since 2006.
The liquidity position of the company in 2009 remained strong and improved over
2008.
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FSDH Research
The cash received from customers increased marginally by 1.43% to N81.86bn in 2009 from N80.71bn
in 2008. The significant growth in cash payments to suppliers and employees which increased by
25.68% from N57.80bn in 2008 to N72.64bn in 2009 impacted heavily on the net cas h provided by
operating activities which declined from N13.82bn in 2008 to N8.10bn in 2009 representing a decline
of 41.37%. The increase in the cash payment can be linked to the increase in the price of raw sugar – it
major raw material during the period occasioned by the increase in global commodity prices and the
depreciation in the value of the local currency against the US$. There was additional capital investment
of N4.5bn in 2009 to capture addition market and bring the company’s products closer to its customers.
The major contributors to the capital investment are motor vehicles and assets under construction
accounting for 50.86% and 34.73% respectively. The project under construction is in respect of the
Algerian subsidiary and the Retail Pack Project. The company generated about N3.74bn from interest
income an increase of 30.31% from N2.88bn generated in 2008 on account of it good liquidity position.
The huge investment lead to net cash used up in investment activities of N857.11mn a reduction of
cash generated from investment activities of N1.36bn in 2008. The payment of generous dividend
during the period resulted in a net cash used up for financing activ ities of N4.2bn in 2009 down from
N15.22bn used up in 2008.
The net increase in cash & cash equivalents in 2009 stood at N3.04bn, an increase from a negative of
N46.61mn in 2008. The cash and cash equivalent as at December 30, 2009 stood at N22.88bn,
representing an increase of 15.34% from N19.83n in 2008.
5.3 Profitability
The challenging operating environment in 2009 impacted adversely on the cost structure of the
company as the effort to grow the turnover could not translate to improvements in profitability.
Turnover increased marginally from N80.67bn in 2008 to N82.40bn in 2009, represe nting a growth of
2.14% but recorded a Compound Annual Decline Rate (CADR) of 0.55% from 2006 to 2009. The
analysis of the turnover by products shows that sugar accounted for 99.93% of the turnover while
molasses accounted for 0.07%.
The project under construction
is in respect of the Algerian
subsidiary and the Retail Pack
Project.
The challenging operating
environment in 2009 impacted
adversely on the cost structure
of the company as the effort to
grow the turnover could not translate to improvements in profitability.
211 2,350 1,295 2,056
10,811
21,818 24,251
35,039
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2006 2007 2008 2009
N'm
n
Long Term vs. Current Liabilities (2006 - 2009)
Long Term Liabilities Short Term Liabilities
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FSDH Research
The cost of sales increased by 23.79% from N49.79bn in 2008 to N61.64bn in 2009, higher than the
growth in turnover, thereby leading to a decline of 32.77% in Gross Profit (GP) from N30.88bn in 2008
to N20.76bn in 2009. Administrative expenses less depreciation increased by 26.13% to N3.36bn from
N2.66bn in 2008 while depreciation charge increased by 69.57% between 2008 and 2009. Earnings
Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization (EBITDA), declined by 31.97% from N30.15bn in
2008 to N19.59bn in 2009, while Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) dropped by 35.08% from
N30.17bn in 2008 to N19.59bn in 2009. Over the last four years , EBITDA & EBIT recorded a CAGR of
4.90% and 3.73%, respectively.
Profit Before Tax rose from N16.66bn in 2006 to N19.59bn in 2009, representing a CAGR of 5.55%.
PAT stood at N13.19bn in 2009, down from N21.87bn in 2008, representing a decline of 39.71%.
Although increased competition and the challenging operating environment have had adverse impact
on the operations of the company in the last few years, we note that the company management has
deployed its scarce resources to increase shareholders’ wealth. The return on equity stood at 31.69%
in 2009, down from 67.03% in 2008. Also, the return on assets stood at 24.89%, a decline from 51.86%
recorded in 2008. Return on capital employed dropped from 88.94% in 2008 to 44.85% in 2009.
Dangote Sugar’s GP margin decreased to 25.20% in 2009 from 38.28% in 2008. EBITDA margin and
PBT margin dropped to 25.67% and 23.77% in 2009 from 38.55% and 37.38% in 2008, respectively.
The contribution of staff to the company’s profitability also declined between 2008 and 2009, as PBT
We note that the company management has deployed its scarce resources to increase
shareholders’ wealth.
83,768
80,649 80,671
82,396
79,000
80,000
81,000
82,000
83,000
84,000
85,000
2006 2007 2008 2009
N'm
nTurnover (2006-2009)
99.93% 0.07%
Turnover by Product--2009
Sale of Sugar Sale of Molasses
16,657
30,661 30,151
19,587 18,328
31,581 31,095
21,155
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2006 2007 2008 2009
N'm
n
PBT Vs EBITA (2006-2009)
PBT EBITDA
99.72% 0.28%
Gross Profit by Products--2009
Sale of Sugar Sale of Molasses
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FSDH Research
per staff dropped to N26.26mn in 2009 from N40.47mn in 2008, while cost per staff increased from
N1.68mn in 2008 to N2.16mn in 2009.
Table 4: Profit & Loss Account (2006-2009) N’mn
2009 2008 Change (%) 2007 2006 CAGR ( %)
Turnover 82,396 80,671 2.14 80,649 83,768 (0.55)
Cost of Sales 61,636 49,790 23.79 48,184 63,624 (1.05)
Gross Profit 20,760 30,881 (32.77) 32,465 20,144 1.01
Operating Profit 19,587 30,171 (35.08) 30,663 17,552 3.73
EBITDA 21,155 31,095 (31.97) 31,581 18,328 4.90
PBT 19,587 30,151 (35.04) 30,661 16,657 5.55
Tax 6,401 8,280 (22.69) 9,182 - -
PAT 13,186 21,871 (39.71) 21,479 16,657 (7.49)
Balance Sheet (2006-2009) N’mn
2009 2008 Change (%) 2007 2006 CAGR (%)
Long Term Assets 17,665 14,631 20.74 14,036 14,268 7.38
Current Assets 61,043 43,544 40.19 36,088 24,732 35.14
Total Assets 78,707 58,174 35.30 50,124 39,000 26.37
Current Liabilities 35,039 24,251 44.48 21,818 10,811 47.99
Long Term Liabilities 2,056 1,295 58.73 2,350 211 113.64
Total Liabilities 37,094 25,546 45.21 24,168 11,022 49.86
Working Capital 26,004 19,292 34.79 14,271 13,920 23.16
Total Equity 41,613 32,627 27.54 25,956 27,978 14.15
Table 5: Key Financial Ratio(2006-2009)
2009 2008 2007 2006
Gross Profit Margin (%) 25.20 38.28 40.25 24.05
EBITDA Margin(%) 25.67 38.55 39.16 21.88
PBT Margin (%) 23.77 37.38 38.02 19.88
ROE (%) 31.69 67.03 82.75 59.54
ROCE (%) 44.85 88.94 108.32 62.27
Collection Days 82.93 65.98 49.55 46.88
Payment Days 26.34 24.44 24.60 23.92
Current Ratio (x) 1.74 1.80 1.65 2.29
Debt Ratio (%) 1.34 1.41 1.47 1.98
Long Term Debt to Equity (%) 1.45 1.19 0.97 0.75
Interest Cover(x) 39,893 1,548 14.921 19.62
EPS(N) 1.10 1.82 2.15 1.67
DPS(N) 1.00 1.20 1.70 1.15
Net Asset Per Share(N) 3.47 2.72 2.60 2.80
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FSDH Research
5.4 Management Efficiency
The number of times capital employed could generate revenue declined marginally from 2.38x in 2008
to 1.89x in 2009. This was on account of the tough operating environment in which the company
operated during the review period. We expect the ratio to improve further following the current efforts of
the FGN to improve infrastructure in the country and the improvement in the global economy which
should have positive impact on the country’s foreign exchange position. Dangote Sugar’s collection
period increased marginally to 26.34days in 2009 from 24.44days in 2008, but the increase was
compensated with the increase in the payment period from 65.98 days in 2008 to 82.93 days in 2009.
The Board members of Dangote Sugar are made up of people with proven track records in their
business endeavours. The executive directors also have varied experience and exposure required to
deliver superior value to their shareholders and positively impact other stakeholders.
5.5 Investment Analysis The good dividend policy of Dangote Sugar has made its shares attractive to different categories of
investor over the years. Although the operating environment has affected its earnings, it remained one
of the companies recognized for consistent dividend payment. The Earnings Per Share (EPS)
decreased from N1.67 in 2006 to N1.10 in 2009 leading to a CADR of 12.95% between 2006 and 2009
and dropped by 40% from N1.82 in 2008 to N1.10 in 2009. The company paid a dividend of N1.00 to its
shareholders whose names were in the register of members as at July 13, 2010 for the y ear ended
December 31, 2009 representing a drop of 17% from N1.20 paid in 2008. The average dividend payout
in the last four years is 76.26%. The net assets per share (NAPS) increased from N2.80 in 2005 to
N3.47 in 2009, representing a CAGR of 7.42%, and an increase of 27.54% between 2008 and 2009.
The Board members of Dangote Sugar are made up of people with proven
track records in their
business endeavours.
2.80 2.60 2.72
3.47
-
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
2006 2007 2008 2009
Net Asset Per Share (2006 - 2009)
1.67
2.15
1.82
1.10 1.15
1.70
1.20 1.00
-
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
2006 2007 2008 2009
(N)
EPS vs DPS (2006 - 2009)
EPS DPS
The good dividend policy of Dangote Sugar has made its shares attractive to different categories of investor over the years. The average dividend payout in the last four
years is 76.26%.
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FSDH Research
5.6 Value Added Distribution
The wealth created by the efforts of the company’s employees stood at N22.77bn in 2009, down from
N32.235bn in 2008, representing a decline of 29.61%. The value added was distributed amongst
employees, providers of capital, government, assets maintenance, and for company’s expansion in the
proportion of 7.09%, 6.88%, 25.72%, 0.002%, and 60.31% respectively.
6.0 Bankruptcy Test – Altman Z- Score Model
We used the Z-Score model developed by Edward Altan to determine the probability of Dangote Sugar
going into bankruptcy within 2 years from December, 2009. The result of the test shows that the
company scores a rating of 5.70 in 2009, meaning that it is a safe company for all stakeholders based
on the published financial for the period ended December, 2009. The 4 year Z-Score is presented on
the table and chart below.
The result of the test shows that the company scores a rating of 5.70 in 2009, meaning that it is a safe company for all stakeholders based on the published financial for the period ended December, 2009.
14.46 14.05
8.35
5.70
-
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
2006 2007 2008 2009
Z-SCORE (2006-2009)
7.09
6.88 25.72 0.0022
60.31
Distribution of Value Added - 2009
Employees Assets Maintainence Government Providers of Capital Company's Expansion
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FSDH Research
7.0 Q1 2010 Unaudited Result Update
The unaudited Q1 2010 result of Dangote Sugar for the period ended March 31, 2010 showed that its
Turnover (TO) increased by 19.26% to N22.79bn, compared with N19.11bn in the corresponding
period of 2009. Profit Before Tax (PBT) increased marginally by 4.44% between 2009 and 2010 to
N5.84bn from N5.59bn in the corresponding period of 2009. The company made a tax provision of
N1.87Bn in Q1 2010, compared with N1.40bn in the corresponding period of 2009. This brought about
5.29% decrease in the company’s Profit After Tax (PAT), which stood at N3.97bn in 2010, compared
with N4.19bn in 2009.
The company’s profit margins decreased marginally in Q1, 2010 over Q1, 2009, but increased over the
FY December, 2009 figure. The PBT margin decreased to 25.62% in Q1, 2010 from 29.26% as at Q2,
2009, but up from 23.77% as at the end of the financial year in December, 2009. This shows that the
company’s total costs as a percentage of TO stand at 74.38%, higher than 70.74% recorded in the
corresponding period of 2009. PAT Margin currently stands at 17.43%, down from 21.94% in the
corresponding period of 2009, but up from 16% as at FY 2009. The result also indicates that the
percentage of TO, PBT, and PAT in the Q1, 2010 to the Full Year Audited TO, PBT and PAT for the
period ended December, 2009 are: 27.66%, 29.81% and 30.12%, respectively.
A cursory look at the balance sheet position as at Q1 2010 compared with the position as at December,
2009 shows that the company’s fixed assets increased during the review period. This may be linked to
the capacity expansion drive of the company during the period. Its fixed assets increased by 21.38% to
N16.70bn from N13.76bn in FY 2009. Stock increased by 52.25% to N14.09bn in Q1 2010 from
N9.26bn in FY 2009. The company should continue to make appropriate efforts in order to reduce its
stock level. Cash and bank balances increased from N19.85bn in FY 2009 to N22.88bn in Q1 2010.
Dangote Sugar’s working capital increased from N19.30bn in FY 2009 to N26bn in Q1 2010. Also, the
net assets increased by 27.54% to N41.61bn from N32.63bn as at FY 2009.
Table 6: Z-Score Model
2009 2008 2007 2006
OPBIT/Total Assets 0.25 0.52 0.61 0.45
Net Working Capital/Total Assets 0.33 0.33 0.28 0.36
Sales/Total Assets 1.05 1.39 1.61 2.15
Market Value of Equity/Total Liabilities 4.86 7.28 16.12 16.33
Accumulated Retained Earnings/Total Assets 0.37 0.35 0.29 0.43
Share Price (December) 15.01 15.50 38.95 18.00
Market Value of Equity 180,120 186,000 389,500 180,000
Z-Score 5.70 8.35 14.05 14.46
The company’s profit margins
decreased marginally in Q1,
2010 over Q1, 2009, but
increased over the FY
December, 2009 figure.
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FSDH Research
8.0 Historical Return Analysis
An analysis of the historical return on the investment in the Ordinary Shares of Dangote Sugar between
March 08, 2007 when the stock was listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) and the date of this
report was fairly good despite the economic and financial crises that adversely affected the
performance of the company. The total return during the period was made up of bonus issue and
dividend payment that the investors enjoyed on their investments. The company has been consistent in
the payment of dividend.
Our illustration using N100,000 initial investment in March 08, 2007 grew to N127,930 as a result of
bonus issue and dividend earned. This resulted in a profit of N27,930 a return of 27.93% and a CAGR
of about 8.56%.The initial investment bought 5,079 units of shares, net of transaction costs. The total
dividend earned during the period was N24,318.25, while bonus issue during the period was 1,016
units. The share price depreciated by 10.05% from N18.90 in 2007 to N17.00 as at December 8, 2010.
9.0 Valuation
In arriving at a fair value for the ordinary shares of Dangote Sugar, we used two valuation methods
which are Discounted Future Earnings Method (DFE) and Discounted Free Cash Flow Method (DCF).
We project Turnover, Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT), Earnings Before Interest Tax
Depreciation and Amortization (EBITDA), Profit After Tax (PAT) and Dividend Payment for the periods
ending December 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014.
We estimate the Turnover of N91.05bn, N101.97bn, N112.68bn, N122.26bn and N132.65bn for
2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014, respectively. We estimate EBIT of N25.04bn, N31.61bn, N34.93bn,
N37.90bn and N41.12bn for the same period, based on EBIT Margin of 27.50% for 2010 and 31.00%
for 2011-2014. We estimate EBITDA of N26.99bn, N33.76bn, N37.27bn, N40.43bn and N43.85bn for
the same period.
Looking at our estimate of the capital expenditure of the company within the forecast period and the
notional tax on EBIT for the same period and adjusting for the net working capital, we arrived at Free
Cash Flow (FCF) of N15.66bn, N22.92bn, N25.36bn, N27.50bn and N29.93bn.Our forecast PAT of
N16.85bn, N21.28bn, N23.51bn, N25.51bn and N27.68bn is based on PAT margin of 18.51% for
2010 and 20.87% for 2011-2014. Using a dividend payout of 75% for the period we arrived at Dividend
Payment of N12.64bn, N15.96bn, N17.64bn, N19.13bn and N20.76bn. We applied a terminal growth
rate of 7.69% and a beta value of 1.33 based on the changes in the historical returns on the company
share price and the Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index (NSE ASI). We used a risk free rate of
9.90% and a market risk premium of 10.04%. Applying foregoing parameters on the Capital Asset
Pricing Model (CAPM), the cost of equity generates 23.24%, which is our cost of capital. The company
had no long term interest bearing debt in its capital structure as at the last audited account. Using 12bn
shares in issue, the DFE Model generates N10.96 per share and the DCF Model generates N11.62per
share. Applying a weight of 45% to the DFE and 55% to the DCF, we arrive at a value of N11.32 per
share, which is our fair value. Buying the stock at the current market price of
Our illustration using
N100,000 init ial investment in March 08, 2007 grew to N127,930 as a result of
bonus issue and dividend earned.
Applying a weight of 45% to
the DFE and 55% to the
DCF, we arrive at a value of
N11.32 per share, which is
our fair value.
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FSDH Research
N17.00 and the price drops to our fair value of N11.32 and adding the present value of the 5-year
forecast dividend, investors will record a total loss of 9.85%. Relating this loss to the cost of Equity
estimated by CAPM at 23.24%, investment in Dangote Sugar shares at the current market price will
record a negative alpha return of 33.09%. The 2010 forward earnings yield based on our fair value generates
12.40%, while the 2010 forward Dividend Yield based on N1.05 Dividend Per Share at our fair value generates
9.30%.Both the forward earnings and dividend yields at current market price are 8.26% and 6.20% respectively.
Our valuation place a fair
price of N11.30 on the shares of Dangote Sugar
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FSDH Research
Table 7: Valuation Forecast and Parameters – Discounted Free Cash Flow(DCF)
Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Terminal Value
Period 0.06 * 2 3 4 5
Revenue (mn) 91,047 101,973 112,680 122,258 132,650
EBIT(mn) 25,038 31,612 34,931 37,900 41,121
EBITDA (mn) 26,991 33,758 37,270 40,432 43,846
FCF(mn) 15,661 22,921 25,358 27,502 29,934 207.33
Discount Rate (%) 23.24 23.24 23.24 23.24 23.24
Discount Factor 0.9878 0.6584 0.5343 0.4335 0.3518
Present Value (mn) 15,470 15,092 13,548 11,923 10,530 72,935
Enterprise Value (mm) 139,498
Debt(mn) Nil
Equity Value(mn) 139,498
Number of Shares (mn) 12,000
Value Per Share(N) 11.62
* We use 0.06 for period 1
Table 8 : Valuation Forecast and Parameters – Discounted Future Earnings (DFE)
Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Terminal Value
Period 0.06 * 2 3 4 5
Revenue (mn) 91,047 101,973 112,680 122,258 132,650
PBT(mn) 24,786 31,294 34,580 37,519 40,708
TAX (mn) 7,932 10,014 11,066 12,006 13,027
PAT(mn) 16,855 21,280 23,514 25,513 27,682 191.73
Discount Rate (%) 23.24 23.24 23.24 23.24 23.24
Discount Factor 0.9878 0.6584 0.5343 0.4335 0.3518
Present Value (mn) 16,649 14,011 12,563 11,061 9,738 67,446
Enterprise Value (mm) 131,467
Debt(mn) Nil
Equity Value(mn) 131,467
Number of Shares(mn) 12,000
Value Per Share(N) 10.96
* We use 0.06 for period 1
Table 9 :Valuation Summary
Model Value(N) Weight Price(N)
Discounted Free Cash Flow (DCF) 11.62 55% 6.39
Discounted Future Earnings (DFE) 10.96 45% 4.93
Per Share Value 11.32
Price as at November 18, 2010 17.00
Total Loss (%)* 9.85
* The total loss is inclusive of the present value of the 5-year forecast dividend
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FSDH Research
Table 10: Annual Capital Growth & Returns Analysis of N100,000 Investment in Dangote Sugar Refinery Plc since March 08, 2007
Value Receipt Period 2007 2008 2009 2010 Total
Holding As At January 5,079 5,079 6,095 6,095
Bonus Shares Received - 1,016 - - 1,016
Cumulated Holding 5,079 6,095 6,095 6,095
Dividend Earned 10,742 6,171 1,920 5,485 24,318
08-Dec-2010
Accumulated Shareholding 6,095
Increase in Shareholding (%) 20.00
Price (N) 17.00
Market Value (N) 103,612
Total Dividend (N) 24,318
Value of Investment (N) 127,930
Cost of Investment (N) 100,000
Profit (N) 27,930
% Increase 27.93
CAGR 8.56
Table 11: FSDH Research Earnings Forecast for Dangote Sugar Refinery (2010-2014)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Turnover(N’mn) 91,047 101,973 112,680 122,258 132,650
EBIT(N’mn) 25,038 31,612 34,931 37,900 41,121
EBITDA(N’mn) 26,991 33,758 37,270 40,432 43,846
PBT(N’mn) 24,786 31,294 34,580 37,519 40,708
Tax(N’mn) 7,932 10,014 11,066 12,006 13,027
PAT(N’mn) 16,855 21,280 23,514 25,513 27,682
Dividend Payment(N’ mn) 12,641 15,960 17,636 19,135 20,761
EBIT Margin (%) 27.50 31.00 31.00 31.00 31.00
EBITDA Margin (%) 29.65 33.10 33.08 33.07 33.05
PBT Margin (%) 27.22 30.69 30.69 30.69 30.69
PAT Margin (%) 18.51 20.87 20.87 20.87 20.87
EPS(N) 1.40 1.77 1.96 2.13 2.31
DPS(N) 1.05 1.33 1.47 1.59 1.73
Earnings Yield (%)* 12.40 15.66 17.30 18.78 20.37
Dividend Yield (%)* 9.30 11.70 13.00 14.10 15.30
P/E Ratio(x)* 8.06 6.39 5.78 5.33 4.91
Number of Shares (mn) 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000
Dividend Payout (%) 75.00 75.00 75.00 75.00 75.00
*At fair our Value
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FSDH Research
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Limited (FSDH) solely for the information of users who are expected to make their own investment decisions
without undue reliance on any information or opinions contained herein. The opinions contained in the report
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as a result of information provided in this publication.
Table 12: Comparable Analysis
Company DSR (Dec 09) Nestle (Dec 09) Flour Mills (Mar 10) NBC (Dec 09) Average
Turnover 82,395.71 68,317.30 206,608.02 90,195.98 111,879.25
Gross Profit 20,760.16 28,360.53 46,066.42 26,053.01 30,310.03
EBITDA 21,154.83 17,297.47 40,899.32 9,211.96 22,140.90
PBT 19,586.93 13,783.24 24,439.55 4,327.64 15,534.34
PAT 13,185.60 9,783.58 16,947.99 7,921.00 11,959.54
Total Assets 78,707.22 44,250.37 143,520.22 66,373.48 83,212.82
Current Liabilities 35,038.91 19,010.97 52,732.14 27,229.81 33,502.96
Long Term Liabilities 2,055.52 14,695.47 37,521.16 9,316.77 15,897.23
Interest Bearing Liabilities - 14,921.19 50,517.85 9,229.73 24,889.59
Working Capital 26,003.78 (165.21) 363.31 (8,004.34) 4,549.39
Capital Employed 43,668.32 25,239.40 90,788.08 39,143.67 49,709.87
Net Assets 41,612.80 10,543.94 53,266.92 29,826.90 33,812.64
EBITDA Margin(%) 25.67 25.32 19.80 10.21 20.25
Interest Cover(x) - 7.69 3.22 5.84 5.58
Debt Ratio (%) 47.13 76.17 62.89 41.03 56.81
Long Term Debt/Equity (%) - 113.06 56.61 - 84.84