nigeria-peace-index

Peace IndexNigeria

‘…The cause of violence may vary, but the

underlying reason for societies’ inability to

resist stresses is that their institutions are

too weak to mediate them peacefully.

Durable solutions to violence, therefore,

require more than addressing each

individual stress, they require action to

address the underlying weaknesses in

institutional legitimacy’.

-World Development Report 2011

WHAT IS THE

FATE OF NIGERIA

AND NIGERIANS?

WHAT IS PEACE?

PEACE IS MORE THAN JUST THE ABSENCE OF CONFLICT OR WAR.

PEACE IS A MULTIDIMENSIONAL CONCEPT THAT CAN BE VIEWED

THROUGH THE LENS OF BOTH NEGATIVE PEACE AND POSITIVE PEACE.

Negative peace is

the absence of

violence and the

absence of the fear

of violence.

Positive peace is the attitudes,

structures and institutions

that underpin peaceful

societies. It is things like the

presence of human rights,

equitable distribution of

resources, good relations

with neighbors and more.

To understand more about positive peace and the many

factors that make a society peaceful, see The Pillars of Peace.

+ + +- - -

THE PILLARS OF PEACEThe Pillars of Peace is a holistic framework which describes the

factors which make a country more peaceful.

1) Well-functioning government

2) Sound business environment

3) Equitable distribution of resources

4) Acceptance of the rights of others

5) Good relations with neighbours

6) Free flow of information

7) High level of human capital

8) Low levels of corruption

These eight Pillars are associated with peaceful environments and are both inter-

dependent and mutually reinforcing, such that improvements in one factor would

tend to strengthen others and vice versa. Therefore the relative strength of any one

Pillar has the potential to positively or negatively impact the others, thereby

influencing peace. A peaceful environment is dependent on the strength of all

Pillars. This is analogous to a brick wall: take out one brick and the strength of the

entire wall is materially impacted.

The Global Peace Index (GPI) ranks nations according to their

level of peace. The Index is composed of 22 qualitative and

quantitative indicators from highly respected sources and ranks

162 independent states, covering 99.6 percent of the world’s

population.

The index gauges global peace using three broad themes:

THE LEVEL

OF SAFETY

AND

SECURITY IN

SOCIETY

THE EXTENT OF

DOMESTIC OR

INTERNATIONAL

CONFLICT

THE DEGREE OF

MILITARIZATION

GLOBAL PEACE INDEX DOMAINS & INDICATORS

A B C

THE LEVEL OF

SAFETY AND

SECURITY IN

SOCIETY

THE EXTENT OF

DOMESTIC OR

INTERNATIONAL

CONFLICT

THE DEGREE OF

MILITARIZATION

GLOBAL PEACE INDEX DOMAINS & INDICATORS

1. Number of external and internal conflicts fought

2. Number of deaths from organized conflict (external)

3. Number of deaths from organized conflict (internal)

4. Level of organized conflict (internal)

5. Relations with neighboring countries

6. Level of perceived criminality in society

7. Number of refugees and displaced people

8. Political instability

9. Political Terror Scale

10. Terrorist activity

11. Number of homicides

12. Level of violent crime

13. Likelihood of violent demonstrations

14. Number of jailed population

15. Number of internal security officers and police

16. Military expenditure as a percentage of GDP

17. Number of armed-services personnel18. Volume of transfers of major conventional weapons as recipient (imports)

19. Volume of transfers of major conventional weapons as supplier (exports)

20. Financial contribution to UN peacekeeping missions

21. Nuclear and heavy weapons capability

22. Ease of access to small arms and light weapons

INDICATOR WEIGHT

Internal Peace (Weight 1 to 5)1) Level of perceived criminality in society 32) Number of internal security officers and

police per 100,000 people 33) Number of homicides per 100,000 people 44) Number of jailed population per 100,000

people 35) Ease of access to small arms and light

weapons 36) Level of organised conflict (internal) 57) Likelihood of violent demonstrations 38) Level of violent crime 49) Political instability 410) Political Terror Scale 411) Volume of transfers of major conventional

weapons, as recipient (imports) per 100,000 people 2

12) Terrorist activity 213) Number of deaths from organised conflict

(internal)

INTERNAL PEACE – 60%

External Peace (Weight 1 to 5)1) Military expenditure as a percentage

of GDP 22) Number of armed services personnel

per3) 100,000 people 24) Financial contribution to UN

peacekeeping missions 25) Nuclear and heavy weapons

capability 36) Volume of transfers of major

conventional weapons as supplier (exports) per 100,000 people 3

EXTERNAL PEACE – 40%

NIGERIA PEACE INDEX SCORE & RANK

YEAR SCORE (5) RANK (162)

2014 2.71 151

2013 2.693 148

2012 2.707 146

2011 2.613 137

2010 2.63 131

2009 2.599 127

2008 2.57 118

From 2008 till date, Nigeria Peace Index

has dropped from 118th position to 151st

of 162 countries.

NPITHE LEVEL OF

SAFETY AND

SECURITY IN

SOCIETY

THE EXTENT OF

DOMESTIC OR

INTERNATIONAL

CONFLICT

THE DEGREE OF

MILITARIZATION

INTERNAL EXTERNAL

HOW PEACEFUL

IS NIGERIA?

NIGERIA PEACE INDEX SCORE (2008-2014)

All Indicators are scored from 1 to 5:1 = most peaceful, 5 = least peaceful DOMAIN Int/Ext 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Nigeria Global Peace Index Rank 2.570 2.599 2.630 2.613 2.707 2.693 2.710

Perceptions of criminality in society B Int 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000

Number of internal security officers and police per 100,000 people B Int 2.000 2.000 2.000 2.000 2.000 2.000 2.000

Number of homicides per 100,000 people B Int 4.000 4.000 4.000 4.000 4.000 4.000 4.000

Number of jailed population per 100,000 people B Int 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Ease of access to small arms and light weapons C Int 5.000 5.000 5.000 4.000 4.000 4.000 4.000

Level of organized conflict (internal) A Int 3.000 3.000 3.000 3.000 4.000 4.000 4.000

Likelihood of violent demonstrations B Int 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000

Level of violent crime B Int 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000

Political instability B Int 3.000 2.500 2.750 3.250 3.250 3.250 3.250

Political Terror Scale B Int 4.000 4.000 4.000 4.000 4.500 4.000 4.000

Imports of major conventional weapons per 100,000 people C Int 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Terrorist acts B Int 3.000 3.000 3.500 3.500 3.500 4.000 4.500

Number of deaths from organized conflict (internal) A Int 1.000 2.000 3.000 3.000 3.000 3.000 3.000

Military expenditure as a percentage of GDP C Ext 1.300 1.200 1.200 1.200 1.200 1.200 1.200

Number of armed services personnel per 100,000 people C Ext 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Funding for UN peacekeeping missions C Ext 1.700 1.100 1.100 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Aggregate weighted number of heavy weapons per 100,000 people C Ext 1.280 1.280 1.280 1.320 1.320 1.320 1.397

Exports of major conventional weapons per 100,000 people C Ext 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Number of displaced people as a percentage of the population B Int 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Relations with neighbouring countries A Int 2.000 2.000 2.000 2.000 2.000 2.000 2.000

Number of external and internal conflicts fought A Int 3.000 3.000 2.000 2.000 2.000 2.000 2.000

Estimated number of deaths from organized conflict (external) A Int 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

MEASURING NIGERIA

PEACE THROUGH THE

3 INDEX DOMAINS

1.

THE LEVEL OF SAFETY

AND SECURITY IN

SOCIETY

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Nigeria Global Peace Index Rank 2.570 2.599 2.630 2.613 2.707 2.693 2.710

Level of organized conflict (internal) 3.000 3.000 3.000 3.000 4.000 4.000 4.000

Number of deaths from organized conflict (internal) 1.000 2.000 3.000 3.000 3.000 3.000 3.000

Relations with neighbouring countries 2.000 2.000 2.000 2.000 2.000 2.000 2.000

Number of external and internal conflicts fought 3.000 3.000 2.000 2.000 2.000 2.000 2.000

Estimated number of deaths from organized conflict (external) 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

A - THE LEVEL OF SAFETY AND

SECURITY IN SOCIETY

All Indicators are scored from 1 to 5:1 = most peaceful, 5 = least peaceful

The major contributors to the state of Peace in Nigeria;

Level of organized conflict (internal),

Number of deaths from organized conflicts (internal),

While Number of external and internal conflicts fought

has been on the decrease making Nigeria more

peaceful. Estimated number of deaths from organized

conflicts (external) & Relations with neighboring

countries remain at the same peace level from 2008.

2.

THE EXTENT OF

DOMESTIC OR

INTERNATIONAL

CONFLICT

B - THE EXTENT OF DOMESTIC OR

INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT


While all other indicators remain the same, The

activities of terrorists & Political instability are on the

increase thereby contributing to the state of Peace in

Nigeria.

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


Perceptions of criminality in society 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000

Number of internal security officers and police per 100,000 people 2.000 2.000 2.000 2.000 2.000 2.000 2.000

Number of homicides per 100,000 people 4.000 4.000 4.000 4.000 4.000 4.000 4.000

Number of jailed population per 100,000 people 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Likelihood of violent demonstrations 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000

Level of violent crime 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000

Political instability 3.000 2.500 2.750 3.250 3.250 3.250 3.250

Political Terror Scale 4.000 4.000 4.000 4.000 4.500 4.000 4.000

Terrorist acts 3.000 3.000 3.500 3.500 3.500 4.000 4.500

Number of displaced people as a percentage of the population 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

3.

THE DEGREE OF

MILITARIZATION

C - THE DEGREE OF MILITARISATION


Ease of access to small arms and light weapons is on

the decrease while Aggregate weighted number of

heavy weapons is slightly on the increase. All other

indicators remain the same.

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


Ease of access to small arms and light weapons 5.000 5.000 5.000 4.000 4.000 4.000 4.000

Imports of major conventional weapons per 100,000 people 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Military expenditure as a percentage of GDP 1.300 1.200 1.200 1.200 1.200 1.200 1.200

Number of armed services personnel per 100,000 people 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Funding for UN peacekeeping missions 1.700 1.100 1.100 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Aggregate weighted number of heavy weapons per 100,000 people 1.280 1.280 1.280 1.320 1.320 1.320 1.397

Exports of major conventional weapons per 100,000 people 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

We therefore can conclude

that the Peace of Nigeria is

majorly determined by

“THE LEVEL OF SAFETY

AND SECURITY IN

SOCIETY”

MEASURING NIGERIA

PEACE THROUGH

INTERNAL & EXTERNAL

PEACE PERSPECTIVES

INTERNAL PEACE

PERSPECTIVE

INTERNAL PEACE2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


Perceptions of criminality in society 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000

Number of internal security officers and police per 100,000 people 2.000 2.000 2.000 2.000 2.000 2.000 2.000

Number of homicides per 100,000 people 4.000 4.000 4.000 4.000 4.000 4.000 4.000

Number of jailed population per 100,000 people 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Ease of access to small arms and light weapons 5.000 5.000 5.000 4.000 4.000 4.000 4.000

Level of organized conflict (internal) 3.000 3.000 3.000 3.000 4.000 4.000 4.000

Likelihood of violent demonstrations 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000

Level of violent crime 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000

Political instability 3.000 2.500 2.750 3.250 3.250 3.250 3.250

Political Terror Scale 4.000 4.000 4.000 4.000 4.500 4.000 4.000

Imports of major conventional weapons per 100,000 people 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Terrorist acts 3.000 3.000 3.500 3.500 3.500 4.000 4.500

Number of deaths from organized conflict (internal) 1.000 2.000 3.000 3.000 3.000 3.000 3.000

Number of displaced people as a percentage of the population 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Relations with neighbouring countries 2.000 2.000 2.000 2.000 2.000 2.000 2.000

Number of external and internal conflicts fought 3.000 3.000 2.000 2.000 2.000 2.000 2.000

Estimated number of deaths from organized conflict (external) 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000


Level of organized conflict (internal), Political instability,

Terrorist acts, & Number of deaths from organized

conflict (internal) are major indicators that determine

the state of Peace in Nigeria.

EXTERNAL PEACE

PERSPECTIVE

EXTERNAL PEACE


Aggregate weighted number of heavy weapons is the

only indicator that contribute to the state of Peace in

Nigeria. All other indicators have been the same since

2008.

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


Military expenditure as a percentage of GDP 1.300 1.200 1.200 1.200 1.200 1.200 1.200

Number of armed services personnel per 100,000 people 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Funding for UN peacekeeping missions 1.700 1.100 1.100 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Aggregate weighted number of heavy weapons per 100,000 people 1.280 1.280 1.280 1.320 1.320 1.320 1.397

Exports of major conventional weapons per 100,000 people 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Between 2008 and 2014, Nigeria has been less

peaceful,

The major index domain that contributes most to

the state of peace in Nigeria is THE LEVEL OF

SAFETY AND SECURITY IN SOCIETY,

The INTERNAL PEACE PERSPECTIVE is the major

perspective that determines the degree of peace in

Nigeria

WE THEREFORE DEDUCE THAT…

IT THEREFORE SUPPORTS THE FACT

THAT IF THE PEOPLE WITHIN

NIGERIA ARE SAFE AND SECURE,

THE LIKELIHOOD OF PEACE IS HIGH.

‘…The cause of violence may vary, but the

underlying reason for societies’ inability to

resist stresses is that their institutions

are too weak to mediate them

peacefully.

-World Development Report 2011

HOW TRUE IS THE STATEMENT

BELOW ABOUT NIGERIA?

NIGERIA PEACE INDEX VS GCI PILLAR 1GCI - INSTITUTIONS NPI

2008 3.42 2.570

2009 3.34 2.599

2010 3.18 2.630

2011 3.31 2.613

2012 3.33 2.707

2013 3.08 2.693

2014 3.01 2.710

As shown above, a drop in the score of Global

Competitiveness Index (INSTITUTION) of Nigeria

correlates with that of Global Peace Index.

A COUNTRY WITH WEAK

INSTITUTIONS WILL MOST

LIKELY BE LESS PEACEFUL!

TRUE

Data Source:

- The Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) (2008-2014)

- The Global Competitiveness Report 2008–2014

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Analysis by: Wale Micaiah

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m: 08078001800

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www.economicsandpeace.org

www.weforum.org/gcr

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