nextgen modeling requirements

Presented to: Nextor NAS-Wide Modeling Workshop

By: Joseph Post, NextGen Systems Analysis

Date: January 27 2010

Federal AviationAdministrationNextGen

ModelingRequirements

The ATO Perspective

Federal AviationAdministration

NextGen Modeling RequirementsJanuary 27 2010

Introduction

• FAA Office of NextGen Systems Analysis (AJP-D) Objective:Estimating the monetary benefits of FAA's NextGen investments over next 10 years

• Platform:Modernized NASPAC– Includes demand generation process

• Question:What modeling improvements are needed to fully realize this objective?



What Is NextGen?

Security and DefenseEngines and AirframesBio FuelsAirport InfrastructureATM and Weather



FAA NextGen Portfolio

Transformational ProgramsADS-BSWIMNextGen Data CommunicationsNextGen Network Enabled WeatherNAS Voice SwitchRNAV/RNP

41 Mid-Term Capabilities

Airfield Improvements

New Runways

Runway Extensions

Airfield Reconfigurations

7Solution Sets

TBOHigh Density AirportsFlexible Terminal & AirportsCATMReduced Weather ImpactSafety, Security, & Environ.Transform Facilities



Trajectory-Based Ops

Substantially addressed with current NASPAC NextGen modeling.Partially addressed with current NASPAC NextGen modeling.Not addressed with current NASPAC NextGen modeling.

OI # OI NameNear or

Mid TermBenefit Mechanism NASPAC Representation Issues

102118Delegated Responsibility for Horizontal Separation

Mid Reduces en route controller workloadIncrease sector capacity. Equipment-sensitive capacity possible.

102108 Oceanic In-trail Climb and Descent MidReduces fuel burn, increases cargo capability

Oceanic procedure modeling.

102137 Automation Support for Mixed Environments MidReduces en route and oceanic controller workload

"Big Airspace"

102114 Initial Conflict Resolution Advisories MidReduces en route controller workload, increases efficiency

Increase sector capacity. Efficiency? Efficiency over-estimated.

104102 Flexible Entry Times for Oceanic Tracks MidReduces fuel burn, increases cargo capability

Oceanic procedure modeling.

104120 Point-in-Space Metering MidSmoother traffic spacing yields increased capacity, efficiency.

Time-based metering.

108206 Flexible Airspace Management MidReduced staffing, improved off-nominal operations

Off-nominal operations, dynamic sectorization..

108209Increase Capacity and Efficiency Using RNAV and RNP

MidIncreased en route/terminal capacity and efficiency.

Q routes, additional arrival/departure fixes, increased airport throughput.

Fix balancing, rerouting.

102123 ADS-B Separation Near Increased capacity in GoMex Increase ZHU GoMex sector capacity.Oceanic procedure modeling, helo operations.



High-Density Airports


OI # OI NameNear or


102141 Improved Parallel Runway Operations Mid Increased airport capacity Increase airport capacity Changing fleet mix difficult to accommodate.

104209 Initial Surface Traffic Management MidReduced taxi times, redistribution of delay to gate, improved runway balancing

Surface modeling.

104123Time Based Metering Using RNAV/RNP Route Assigments

MidImproved metering yields beter runway utilization

Increase airport capacity

104117Improved Management of Arrivals/Surface/Departure Flow Operations

MidIncreased terminal capacity and runway utilization

Can represent with arrival/departure fixes and airport capacities.

104122Integrated Arrival/Departure Airspace Management

MidIncreased capacity in extended terminal area, imrpoved arrival/departure flows

Can represent with different sectorization and arrival/departure fixes.



Flexible TerminalOI # OI Name

Near or Mid Term

Benefit Mechanism NASPAC Representation Issues

102140Wake Turbulence Mitigation for Departures (WTMD): Wind-Based Wake Procedures

MidIncrease departure rate under specific wind conditions

Increase departure capacity at specified times.

107107Ground Based Augmentation System (GBAS) Precision Approaches

MidIncreased arrival rate for equiped a/c under IMC

Cannot accommodate equipage.

102144Wake Turbulence Mitigation for Arricals: CSPRs

Mid Increased arrival rate. Changing fleet mix difficult to accommodate.

104124 Use Optimized Profile Descent Mid Decreased descent fuel consumption. SIDs/STARs currently being implemented.

107202 Low Visibility Surface Operations Mid Decreased taxi times. Surface modeling.

107117 Low Visibility/Ceiling Approach Operations MidDecreased cancellations and diversions under severe IMC.

Modeling of severe IMC, cancellations, diversions. Cannot accommodate equipage.

107118 Low Visibility/Ceiling Landing Operations MidDecreased cancellations and diversions under severe IMC.

Modeling of severe IMC, cancellations, diversions. Cannot accommodate equipage.

107115 Low Visibility/Ceiling Takeoff Operations MidIncreased departure rate for equiped a/c under severe IMC.

Modeling of severe IMC. Cannot accommodate equipage.

107116 Low Visibility/Ceiling Departure Operations MidIncreased departure rate for equiped a/c under severe IMC.

Modeling of severe IMC. Cannot accommodate equipage.

107119Expanded Low Visibility Operations using Lower RVR Minima

Mid Increased arrival rate under severe IMC. Can be accommodated.

102406 Provide Full Surface Situation Information Mid Increased surface safety. Safety modeling.

104207 Enhanced Surface Traffic Operations Mid Decreased taxi times. Surface modeling.

103207Improved Runway Safety Situational Awareness for Controllers

Mid Increased surface safety. Safety modeling.

103208Improved Runway Safety Situational Awareness for Pilots

Mid Increased surface safety. Safety modeling.




Collaborative ATM

OI # OI NameNear or


105302 Continuouse Flight Day Evaluation MidIncreased capacity, efficiency, and flexibility.

TFM modeling.

105208Traffic Management Initiatives with Flight Specific Trajectories

Mid Increased capacity and efficiency. TFM modeling.

108212Improved Management of Airspace for Special Use

Mid Increased efficiency. Rerouting.

101102Provide Full Flight Plan Constraint Evaluation with Feedback

Mid Increased flexibility. User preferences and decisionmaking.

103305 On-Demand NAS Information Mid Increased flexibility and safety.User preferences and decisionmaking, safety modeling.




Reduce Weather Impact

OI # OI NameNear or


103119Initial Integration of Weather Information into NAS Automation and Decision Making

Mid Increased capacity, efficiency, and safety. TFM, weather, and safety modeling.

103116Initial Improved Weather Information from Non-Ground Based Sensors

Mid Increased capacity, efficiency, and safety. TFM, weather, and safety modeling.




Transform Facilities

OI # OI NameNear or


109402 Remotely Staffed Tower Services Mid Increased capacity during severe IMC. Modeling of severe IMC.




Shortfall SummaryEn Route

– Conflict resolution (inefficiency)– Dynamic sectorization– Off-nominal operations– Re-routing - Tactical

• Fix Balancing• Convective weather

– Storm tops

– Route vs. sector capacity

Terminal– Routes– Inter-arrival time variance– Convective weather– CDTI-Assisted Visual Separation (CAVS)– Severe IMC

• Cat II/III operations• Airport closure• Diversions• Equipage-specific effects

En Route/Terminal– SIDs/STARs



Shortfall Summary (cont.)Surface

– Gates– Taxiways– Runway usage– De-icing– Tail numbers and delay propagation– Passenger delay

Oceanic– In-trail climb– Separations– Track assignment

Traffic Flow Management– GDPs/Ground Stops

• Probabalistic demand/capacity

– Airspace Flow Programs (AFPs)– Re-routing - Strategic– Miles-In-Trail– Time-based metering

Airline Operations Center– Cancellations– Substitutions– User preferences and decision-making

• Value of flexibility



Additional Requirements• Improved ease of use

– GUI?• Future fleet representation

– International fleet– Avionics

• Monte Carlo capability– Demand– Capacities– Weather– Routings– etc.

• Visualization• Validation

Any Questions?

nextgen modeling requirements

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