nextgen long term tradespace analysis strategy

NextGen Long Term Tradespace Analysis Strategy

Joint Planning Development Office

Interagency Portfolio & Systems Analysis Division

January 27, 2010

GMU Innovations in NAS-Wide Simulation Workshop

Key Points

1.NextGen Stakeholder Key Decisions Roadmap

2.Commitment & Alignment Issues

3.Key Decisions

4.Tradespace Exploration

5. Alternative Modeling Abstraction Issues

NextGen Stakeholder DECISION ROADMAP – 2025 & Beyond

High Fidelity ConOps

1

Portfolio Results2

Partnership Commitments1

3

Risk Management Coordination

3a

Budgets3e

Policy Strategies3b

R&D Development5

Standards Development

6

Partnership Plans Baselined

3d

Theoretical Feasibility Established

7

Performance Established

11

Safety, Security, V&V

8

Demos9

Iterative Org. / Reality Test

20

Standards Approved

10

Development, Mfg, Implementation

12

StakeholderProcurements

16

Testing13

Infrastructure, Training, Facilities

14

V&V Certification17

Deployment18

Operations19

Policy Approved15

GOALGOAL

ArchitectureBaselined

3c

1 Includes manufacturers & airports

Business Cases & Commitments

Policy Development

4

Conduct R&D Validation Implementation Deployment & Operations


Business Cases & Commitments/Alig

nment


1

Portfolio Results2


3


3a

Budgets3e

Policy Strategies3b


3d


20


3c

Where we are today:Vision, Con-Ops, IWP, RTT’s, Primary & Secondary Owners, Initial Portfolio ResultsIssues:

Integrated Work Plan is a menu of possible NextGen long term implementations. Not sufficient specificity to focus partnership R&D.

Initial portfolio results for the long term have significant challenges in environmental costs and potentially high-end GA equipage costs.

Research Technology Transfer teams require more customer specifications and long term industry alignment.




1

Portfolio Results2


3


3a

Budgets3e

Policy Strategies3b


3d


20


3c

ALIGNMENT

RESEARCH

POLICIES

INFRASTRUCTURE

PROCECURES

MANUFACTURING




1

Portfolio Results2


3


3a

Budgets3e

Policy Strategies3b


3d


20


3c

ALIGNMENT

1. Air/Ground Division of Responsibility.

2. Level of Automation

3. Equipage Requirements and Timing.

4. Mandated Environmental Targets..

5. Airports Strategies.

6. Facilities Consolidation. 7. Information Sharing

Architecture.

CRITICAL DECISIONS

Critical Long Term NextGen Decisions

The capabilities, performance, costs, schedule and risk associated with the development, implementation and operation of the NextGen system will be determined by decisions made in resolving seven key design issues. These decisions involve explicit trade-offs. Objective and transparent resolution of these decisions by the FAA, multi-agency and stakeholder community ensures the management of consistent expectations and the timely achievement of NextGen. Therefore, policy-level plans and milestones to arrive at informed resolution of these key decisions are essential

1. Air/Ground Division of Responsibility. The division of responsibility between the flight deck and ground controllers for trajectory management and aircraft separation determines the amount of capability required in aircraft flight management systems and the associated costs.

2. Level of Automation. Higher levels of automation for trajectory management and aircraft separation enable higher NAS performance. However, validation and verification of a software intensive system can be a major cost driver. System resilience to off-nominal operations and failures must be assured, including human capacity to manage degraded system conditions.

3. Equipage Requirements and Timing. The cost and timing of new equipage relative to the availability of modernized NAS infrastructure and procedures that provide user economic benefits is the largest variable in the users’ business case. Early decisions on equipage standards and timing maximize cost-beneficial forward-fit strategies but need to be accompanied by complimentary mandate and incentivization decisions for fleet retrofits.

4. Mandated Environmental Targets. The stringency of environmental constraints is the largest variable in determining NAS future performance – particularly capacity. Decisions will drive the priority of technology and operational requirements.

5. Airport Strategies. Future runway parallel separation standards will define the extent to which capacity at currently congested airports and metro-plexes can be increased or whether secondary airports are required for future demand.

6. Facilities Consolidation. A major factor in both capital and operating costs is the facilities plan for the NextGen NAS and the degree to which it eliminates, consolidates, and finds dual public uses for Federal aviation domain requirements.

7. Information Sharing Architecture. The NextGen architecture is premised on net-centric information sharing across system users and operators. Decisions on governance and information security standards will set the boundaries within which the NextGen system must operate

Portfolio Tradespace Analysis

Adv. Traffic Management

Systems

Equipage Strategies

Physical Infrastructure

(Facilities, Ports, Stations, Hubs,

Centers)

Procedures & Rules of the

Road

Automation vs. Human Implementations

Security & Safety Levels

Policies & Key Decisions

Timeframes

Portfolio Tradespace Analysis# Alternative Time

Technology Level (Ground Based and

Airborne)

Extent of Deployment

New RunwaysSecondary

AirportsUp-Gauging

Airframe/Engine Equipage

% AvionicsGeographic

Distribution of Airports

Airlines Manufactures

1 FAA RTCA TF5 2018 NGOps-3Commercial: 100%

GA: 50%As defined by TF5 As planned Baseline Baseline Baseline Baseline

2 Runway Solution 2025 NGOps-3 Mixed Fleet Where ApplicableAdditional runways with current rules

Baseline Baseline Baseline Baseline

3 Runway Plus Solution

2025 NGOps-4 Mixed Fleet Where ApplicableAdditional runways

with improved rules

Baseline Baseline Baseline Baseline

4 Secondary Airports Solution

2025 NGOps-4 EverywhereCommercial: 100%

GA: 50%Where Applicable As planned

Secondary arpts first; new hubs

when req'dBaseline Baseline Baseline

5 Aircraft Solution 2025 NGOps-5Commercial: 100%

GA: 50%Where Applicable

As planned plus new stub runways

Baseline Baseline Accelerated Accelerated

6 Super Dense NGOps-4

2025 NGOps-4 everywhereCommercial: 100%

GA: 50%Baseline As planned Baseline Baseline Accelerated Accelerated

7 Super Dense NGOps-5

2025

NGOps-5 @ Congested A/P,

NGOps-4 everywhere else

Mixed Fleet Baseline As planned Baseline Baseline Accelerated Accelerated

8 Full Aircraft Solution 2025

NGOps-5 @ Congested A/P,

NGOps-4 everywhere else

Mixed Fleet Baseline Only existing TAF BaselineNew A/C included at 10% per year

Baseline Baseline

9 Full Solution 2025 NGOps-5Commercial: 100%

GA: 50%Where Applicable

NextGen enabled runways

Secondary Airports selected for OEP-

35Baseline Accelerated Accelerated

10 2035 Target (2025 delay)

2035 NGOps-5 Baseline Where ApplicableNextGen enabled

runways



11 Environment (N+2 accelerated)

2025 NGOps-4Commercial: 100%

GA: 50%Baseline Baseline



12 Market Policy (Gov't limits demand)

2025No additional

improvements; NG-3Baseline Baseline Baseline Baseline Baseline Baseline Baseline

13 DoD Scenario 2025 NGOps-4 Everywhere 100% DoD equipped 100% DoD facilities Baseline Baseline Baseline Baseline Accelerated

Systematic Approach to Evaluate A Portfolio of Operational Improvements (Ois) for Costs, Risks and Benefits

Contributors: Marc Narkus-Kramer, Monica Alcabin and Bob Hemm

January 25, 2010

Objective Develop a way of translating the different portfolios of Operational Improvements (defined in

the IWP associated) with a NextGen Operational Level (NGOps-X) into costs, benefit and risks that can feed the Interagency Portfolio and System Analysis models and is consistent

11

Ois to NGOps Levels

12

ID Name

NGOps-1 NGOps-2 NGOps-3 NGOps-4 NGOps-5 NGOps-6

OI-0303 TMI with Flight-Specific Trajectories 1 OI-0305 Continuous Flight Day Evaluation 1 OI-0306 Provide Interactive Flight Planning from Anywhere

1 OI-0307 Integrated Arrival/Departure Airspace Management

1 OI-0309 Use Optimized Profile Descent 1 OI-0311 Increased Capacity and Efficiency Using RNAV and

RNP 1

OI-0316 Enhanced Visual Separation for Successive Approaches 1 1

OI-0318 Arrival Time-Based Metering - Controller Advisories 1

OI-0319 Time-Based Metering into En Route Streams 1

OI-0320 Initial Surface Traffic Management 1

OI-0321 Enhanced Surface Traffic Operations 1

OI-0322 Low-Visibility Surface Operations 1

OI-0325 Time-Based Metering Using RNP and RNAV Route Assignments 1

OI-0326 Airborne Merging and Spacing - Single Runway 1 OI-0327 Surface Management - Arrivals/Winter Ops/Runway

Configuration 1

OI-0330 Time-Based and Metered Routes with OPD 1 1

Translation from Ois to NGOps Level to Costs

14

4

Translating between IWP elements and Business Case drivers

OIEnabler

OIOI

OIOI

Enabler

Enabler

Enabler

Missing Critical

Enablers

Stakeholder Programs

Enabler

Future System

Future Activity

OIOI

Target Portfolio Benefits

Story

Alternative OIs to achieve benefits

OIOIOIs not in the

scope of the Target Portfolio

Future Activity

Future System

Logical grouping

Logical grouping

?

Target Portfolio Mapped to Operational Improvements

Key Enablers Allocated to Conceptual Architecture

Operational ImprovementsMapped to Key Enablers

Key Enablers Mapped To Functional Clusters

Functional Clusters Mapped to Cost Objects

OI # Stakeholder Enabler # Enabler IOC Description

0302 0306 0325 03300350 0352 0358 0360

ATO EN-1204 Air - Ground Data Exchange – Data Communications Management Services – En Route

2014 These enablers provide En Route air /ground data exchange for clearance and instructions services. EN-1209 Air - Ground Data Exchange –

Clearance and Instructions Services – En Route Group 1

2014

EN-1220 Air - Ground Data Exchange – Advisory Services – En Route Group 1

2014

Missing Aeronautical Telecommunication Network

2014 Provides inter-domain routing between the ATO and aircraft.

Commercial Service

EN-1033 Fixed Radio - Data Communications Level 1

2010 Ground-based VHF Digital Link - Mode 2 (VDL-2) radio is fielded for operational use as a commercial service.

Aircraft Operator

EN-1062 Mobile Data Communications Management Applications - Level 1

2012 These enablers provide initial air /ground data exchange for clearance and instructions services. EN-1209 Air - Ground Data Exchange –

Clearance and Instructions Services – En Route Group 1

2014

EN-1220 Air - Ground Data Exchange – Advisory Services – En Route Group 1

2014

Stakeholder Enabler Group Performance Cluster Functional Cluster

ATO ATC Data Link Communications

Initial Data Link Applications

Initial En Route ATM applications

Initial TRACON ATM applications

Intermediate En Route ATM applications

Advanced Data Link Applications and Infrastructure

Advanced En Route ATM applications

Advanced TRACON ATM applications

Advanced Tower ATM applications

ATS-Specific Subnetwork

Enabler Group Functional Cluster Type of Cost Object Cost Object

En route ATM

Initial En route ATM applications

Software intensive5.1.1 Initial En Route ATM Applications

Intermediate En route ATM applications

Software intensive5.1.2 Intermediate En Route ATM Applications

Advanced En route ATM applications

Software intensive5.1.3 Advanced En Route ATM Applications

Advanced En route ATM applications used for separation by automation

Software intensive

5.1.4 Advanced En Route ATM Applications Used for Separation

Giles et al., PRELIMINARY TRADE SPACE ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATE LEVELS OF NEXTGEN AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT PERFORMANCE, MITRE/CAASD MP090272, January 2010

Example of Translating Functional Descriptions into Costs

ESLOC (k) Capability Functionality Description Estimate Source

14 Ride reports provided to ATC automation via data link, and processed by ATC automation ER-RRPT-ACDR in P-ATM

15 More complex clearances

FAA Data Comm Initial Investment Analysis

112 Updates to CPDLC and context management applications in ERAM; introduction of ADS-C application to ERAM

FAA Data Comm Initial Investment Analysis

20 Automated clearance delivery for TFM route and altitude change, TOD maneuvers, and pilot requests received via data linkER-ACLR-TRC, ER-ACLR-RPR, ER-ACLR-

TODC in P-ATM

15 State and intent information provided to ATC automation via data link, and processed by ATC automation ER-TRAJ-TMED in P-ATM

15 Routine information disseminated via data commAnalogy

11 Pilot requests received via data comm and notified to controller Analogy

10 Clearances in Response to Pilot Requests ER-ACLR-RPR in P-ATM

20 Clearances (including those for TFM route and altitude change) delivered via data comm

Analogy

4 Problem resolutions generated for TFM changes and pilot requests received via data comm

Analogy

15 Transfer of comm automatic (or manually initiated) for aircraft capable of data comm Analogy

10 Automatic Sector Transfer ER-AST-AST in P-ATM

171 Redevelopment of ERAM R1 to meet DO-278 AL4Analogy

[1]

Cost Results

Approp. WBS WBS Element

(2009 $ millions)

Min Cost Mode Cost Max Cost

F&E 1.0 Mission Analysis Pre-decisional Pre-decisional Pre-decisional

F&E 2.0 Investment Analysis Pre-decisional Pre-decisional Pre-decisional

F&E 3.0 Solution Development Pre-decisional Pre-decisional Pre-decisional

F&E 4.0 Implementation Pre-decisional Pre-decisional Pre-decisional

F&E 5.0 In-Service Management Pre-decisional Pre-decisional Pre-decisional

F&E Total Pre-decisional Pre-decisional Pre-decisional

O&M 5.0 In-Service Management Pre-decisional Pre-decisional Pre-decisional

O&M 6.0 Disposition Pre-decisional Pre-decisional Pre-decisional

O&M Total Pre-decisional Pre-decisional Pre-decisional

Grand Total Pre-decisional Pre-decisional Pre-decisional

BENEFITS

Translation from Ois to NGOps to Benefits

18

OIs

NGOps

Benefit Mechanisms

Model parameters

Key addition to explain translation

From NGops to model parameters

Benefit MechanismsMaximize Individual Runway Capacity

19

ADS-BMerging And Spacing

RPI

ImprovedC-ATM/TFM

IntegratingWx into Decision Support Tools

Increased Controller productivity

Reduced intersectingRoutes and reduced route width

Integrated Arrival and Departure(big airspace)

RNAV/RNP

Single runwayMIT/ wind-basedSeparationreduction

RNAVDivergentdepartures

Reduced Separation to 3 nmi

IFR and MVFRCAVS

Wind-dependentWake arrivalsMIT

Point in spacemetering

TMA and McTMA

Tailored arrivals

3D PAM

Precision 4-DT

Time-based Metering with RNAV/RNP

Improved regular flows through system removes gaps, improved sequencing, reduce

controller

workload constraints

Improved precision delivery to meter fix

Merging and spacing in the terminal area - to reduce vectoring and deliver aircraft to the final approach fix

Tighten precision spacing to the threshold Deconflict departures,

increase departure gates,

Fully utilize departure runways

Approachfix

ThresholdDeparture Meter fixImproved flows‘through en route system

Runways

Maximize Multi-runway Capacity

20

Runway Access

(parallel and

converging

runways)

DeparturesArrivals

CSPR simultaneous/ independent >=2500Dependent Class-based Wake Vortex CSPR - current order Small & Large >= 1200Dependent Wind-based Wake Vortex CSPR - all wt class >=1200Paired Wind-based >=750 ft

departure Meter fixApproachfix

Improved flows‘through en route system

CSPR displaced TH wind-basedDependent Wind-based Wake Vortex CSPR - all wt class >=1200Paired ADS-B assisted paired depared - wind dependent

Runways

How to Use Benefit Mechanisms Define the benefit mechanisms associated with the portfolio of Ois

Relate these Ois to “pseudo programs” so that the costing and benefits are consistent

Check to see that bottlenecks don’t move from one constrained resource to another (often not done)

Translate benefit mechanisms into model parameters (e.g. inter-arrival average times and the standard deviation at the meter fix)

21

RISK ASSESSMENT

Implementation Steps*


1

Portfolio Results

2


3


3a

Budgets

3e

Policy Strategies

3b

R&D Development

5


6


3d

Theoretical Feasibility Established

7


11

Safety, Security, V&V

8

Demos

9


20

Standards Approved

10


12

StakeholderProcurements

16

Testing

13


14

V&V Certification

17

Deployment

18

Operations

19

Policy Approved

15

GOALGOAL


3c

1 Includes manufacturers & airports

Category End State Performance Metrics

Throughput (flights / day)

Average Delay (min)

Climate (total fuel burn)

LAQ (fuel burn below 3000 ft)

Noise (size of affected population)


Conduct R & D implementation Deployment & OperationsValidation

Policy Development

4

•Being updated to be consistent

with other documents describing this process

Risks and Time Estimates: Interval Management/ Delegated Visual in IMC or MMC

24

Step # Step Interval Management/ Delegated Visual in IMC or MMC

Time Risk Risk Assessment

1 High Fidelity ConOps(Concept of operations)

Exists done done none

2 Portfolio Results(benefits and constraints)

Exists but not for mixed equipage done done none

3 Partnership Commitments1 SBS office and UPS but seeking US Airways

1 year Concern that there won't be a partner airline Low

4 R&D Development(proof of concept)

Much of the development was for VMC CAVS and this needs to be extended to MMC and IMC conditions

2 years •Acceptance of wake mitigation tools;•EFB issues and location associated with regional jets;•Ability of the altitude data coming from ADS-B to accurately be displayed (after processing) as a glide slope deviation.

Medium

5 Standards Development(end-to-end performance and technical requirements; interoperability requirements)

Much of the standards were developed for the VMC UPS application

3 years Could be less if the UPS configuration meets the IMC and MMC requirements but if additions are needed then additional work is needed on standards. Possibly addressing wake and displays.

medium

6 Validate feasibility(operational procedures and human factors)

Initial feasibility has been established for aircraft in lab

with R and D More effort needed to address wake risk medium

7 Safety,Security, V&V (operational safety assessment)

No significant safety analysis has been done

along with stds development

Security is still a major issue and must be addressed; dealing with spoofing

medium

8 Live Demos(demonstration and validation)

US Airways Simultaneous with R and D

Still a risk that no major airline will sign up unless there are subsidies; planned as part of SBS program

medium

9 Standards Approved(certify equipment)

Result of standards effort part of 3 years Not serious risk if other issues are completed satisfactorily

low

10 Performance Established(no separate item)

Part of US Airway live demonstrations 1 additional year with larger trials

Not serious risk if other issues are completed satisfactorily

low

Estimated Time Line for Implementation

25

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025High Fidelity ConOps

Portfolio Results


R&D Development


Validate feasibility

Safety,Security, V&V

Live Demos

Standards Approved



OTE Testing


Final V&V Certification (ops approval)

Deployment

Operations

Policy Approved

Stakeholder Procurements

What Does the Analysis Indicate Not completed (detailed analysis not run yet)

Most complex operational improvement portfolio (NGOps-5 and 6) is potentially too risky to be achieved by 2025 and could be very expensive

The next level down (NGOps-4) is achievable but still risky; within reasonable costs as stated by the FAA for NextGen

This coupled with expansion of secondary airports could result in a reasonable 2025 solution

nextgen long term tradespace analysis strategy

Documents

nextgen system

stakeholder community

long term industry alignment

timely achievement of

policylevel plans

environmental costs

key design issues

highend ga equipage