Fibre to the Home: Taking your life to new horizons!

Chris Holden, President, FTTH Council Europe

NextGen 11, Bristol, 15 November 2011

FTTH    Council  Europe  

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FTTH Global panorama mid-2011 – Total subscribers

4.6  M    

46  M  

9.5  M  

… and FTTH continues to grow

5.6    M  

 0.3  M    

FTTH in Europe – Overall Figures mid-2011

Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe (1) Our figures have already been processed to avoid overestimating homes passed when one home is passed by several operators in some countries. Figures take this into account at June 2011 in particular for Slovenia, Russia and France.

•  EU35:  4.6  million  FTTH/B  subscribers  •  EU27:  4.1  million  FTTH/B  subscribers  •  CIS  (Russia,  Ukraine,  Belarus,  Kazakhstan):  5.6  million  FTTH/B  

subscribers  

•  EU35:  25.1  million  FTTH/B  Homes  Passed  •  EU27:  23.4  million  FTTH/B  HP  •  CIS  (Russia,  Ukraine,  Belarus,  Kazakhstan):  14.7  million  FTTH/B  HP  

 Average  Take  Rate  EU35:  18.3%  vs  19.4%  in  June  2010  

Growth rates 1H2011EU35 +14% FTTH/B subscribers (vs 24% 1H2010) +26% FTTH/B Homes Passed (vs +12.5% 1H2010)

Expanding FTTH/B coverage is still a priority for players

FTTH Global Ranking – mid-2011

European  Ranking

•  At  June  2011  20  countries  in  the  European  Ranking  Ukraine  and  Hungary  new  entrant  

•  Three  Eastern  European  countries  showed  the  highest  progression  in  the  ranking  from  2%  to  4  %  :  Lithuania,  Bulgaria  and  Russia  

Major  Western  Economies  such  as  Italy  and  France  s\ll  at  the  bo]om  of  the  Ranking  Others  like  Germany,  Spain  and  the  UK  are  absent  

UK June 2011 = 4500 Subscribers and 567,300 HP out of 25M Households

FTTH/B  leading  countries

Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe

(1) Number of subscribers in total Homes Passed

From the highest… In Scandinavian countries : 62% in Norway, 39% in Sweden In Hungary (37%), Slovakia (32%) or Netherlands (32%) In the Baltics : 27% in Lithuania

…to the lowest

In France (10%), Switzerland (5%), UK (<1%)

But number of subscribers less relevant than Take Rates (1)

At June 2011: South Korea at 59%, Japan at 45%

Europe at mid-2011: 18.3%

FTTH  Market  Forecasts  P

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Europe in Context: the Race to Fibre Maturity (10%)

Source: Heavy Reading for FTTH Council Europe, February 2011

Country 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020After  2020

Japan

Korea

China

Taiwan

Australia

India

USA

Canada

Brazil

Russia

France

Germany

Italy

UK

SpainSweden

Netherlands

Portugal

Switzerland

Denmark

EUROPEAN UNION

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

l  Over 19m households connected to FTTH/B at end-2015 in EU countries covered by this forecast = about 10% of all homes in the region

l  Seven of the 21 nations still under 10% penetration at end-2015: Greece, UK, Poland, Belgium, Spain, Germany, Italy and Czech Rep

l  Unlike most other regions, incumbents are not currently the major providers of FTTH, and this will remain the case

l  The most striking feature of the market through the next five years will be its fragmentation across every dimension

l  The UK will have the best superfast broadband network in Europe ???

Europe by 2015

l  Over 19m households connected to FTTH/B at end-2015 in EU countries covered by this forecast = about 10% of all homes in the region

l  Seven of the 21 nations still under 10% penetration at end-2015: Greece, UK, Poland, Belgium, Spain, Germany, Italy and Czech Rep

l  Unlike most other regions, incumbents are not currently the major providers of FTTH, and this will remain the case

l  The most striking feature of the market through the next five years will be its fragmentation across every dimension

l  Will the UK will have the best superfast broadband network in Europe?

Summary

 European  Commission  Digital  Agenda:                                            50%  of  European  households  connected  to  100  Mbps  by  

2020  

The Challenge

l  Looking to the future – FTTH is the end game l  To meet the targets set by the Commission 50% subscribers with >100Mbps service means maybe 80% capable Even then there is no upload requirement – essential for the Cloud l  Realistic National Plans l  Linked up government departments l  How to move incumbents towards FTTH Cu pricing + Incentives for FTTH and encourage close old infrastructure l  Connecting Europe Fund - €9.2bn €7bn for infrastructure leverage to ~€100bn with financial instruments l  Improve the Take Rate – show there is a business case Good old fashioned MARKETING

FTTH  Case  studies  P

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FTTH  Case  studies  P

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ER-­‐Telecom  

Amsterdam  Citynet  

Portugal  Telecom  

ARGE  Glasfaser    Waldviertel  

Andorra  Telecom  Fastweb  

MälarEnergi    Stadsnät  

Ostrobothnia  

Pau  Pyrénées  

TEO  Waoo!  

ATB-­‐NeZ  

Makedonski  Telekom  

LaZelecom  

Pays  Chartrain  

Al\box  

Universal FTTH services for all citizens

Success Story •  Andorra is Europe’s FTTH leader with a penetration of 40% of its

inhabited households (vs. holiday homes), and 26% overall

•  From traditional telecom operator to service-oriented provider

•  Challenges: no economies of scale in small, mountainous country

Andorra Telecom - Story ANDORRA

Andorra Telecom - Key facts

Deployment (end-2010) •  Homes passed: 52,000

100% of households •  Subscribers: 14,700 •  Deployment 2008-2010 •  7 years to ROI

End-user services •  Andorra Telecom is a telecom operator and TV broadcaster, fully

integrated operator (builds, operates, provides services) •  Packages: Double and Triple play, multi-platform services (calls

and yellow pages on TV, Internet TV)

ANDORRA

FTTH Conference 2012 14 – 16 February 2012, Munich, Germany

www.ftthconference.eu

Thank you for your attention!

www.ftthcouncil.eu