Newsletter n°5 - 2016

Soilfertilityisoneofthemainfactorsconsideredbyfarmersintheirbusiness,andthisregardlessofthelatitude.Agriculturalpracticescanmaintainit,enrichit,butalsoweakenit.Thisinteractionbetweensoil,crop,andfarmerwilldictatemuchoftheevolutionoftheforestlandscape,boththeforestdeclinethereconstructionoftreecover. During the first agrarian diagnostics on the field, the CoForTips team heard farmerstalkingabout thedifficultyofworking the forest soil in theyear following theburning.TheprojectthereforeeasedinJuly2015ameetingbetweentheCameroonianfarmers,includingGilbertDjemekouahSankonoonthepicture,andaFrenchfarmer,HenriBerche,specializedinconservationagriculture.Thisexchangeallowedreformulatingdirectlyapplicabletechnicalrecommendations,andalsohighlightingthesocialandtechnicalconstraintsfacedbyfarmersontheprojectstudysites.Thefertilitymanagementisanextralayerinthecomplexwebofthesystem’sdriversofchange.

© Arnaud De Grave

Pauline Gil-let graduat-ed from UL-G emb l o u xA g r o - B i oTech (Bel-gium) and isa Bio-engi-

neer in Management of ForestsandNaturalAreas.Afterworkingonforestgeneticsinatropicalen-vironmentthatallowedhertodis-covertheCameroonianrainforest,shejoinedtheCoForTipsteamasa doctoral student. Her thesis isconcernedwith the changing so-cio-ecosystems in Central Africa,andsoshespentseveralmonthsinthedifferentstudysites inGa-bon and Cameroon in order tocollect socioeconomic data andsupervized the memoirs of twostudents.

InSeptember2015theWP1teammetinMontpelliertobuildasyn-theticmodelofforestdynamicsintheCongoBasin.InDecember2015inVienna,theWP3organizedaworkshopwherescenarios of territory develop-ment were defined to exploremitigationdevelopmentpolicies.InJanuary2016,theWP2summa-rizeditsworkonhumandriversofchange in Montpellier. Two newarticlesonthissubjecthavebeenwritten[1,2].InApril2016,theWP4testedtheAgriForestmodelbyplayingwiththe villagers of Mindourou andBokito,while the teamofCoFor-Setcontinuedco-constructingthemodelonminingdevelopment.

Human drivers of change.The Working Group 2 - “humandriversofchange”-bringstogetherresearchers fromGembloux Agro-BioTechandCIRAD.Throughques-tionnairesmadeinthethreestudysitesoftheproject,westudiedtheevolutionofvarioussocio-econom-ic variables: family farming, landtenure rules,ormealcompositionalongagradientofdeforestation.

These studies showhow the rela-tionshipbetweenlocalplayersandtheir ecosystem change with theevolutionoftheforesttransition.

The figure below shows the rela-tionshipbetween forest transitioncurve and the grid of land tenurerules. The land tenure theory [3]wasdevelopedtomeasurethelev-els of ownership and co-manage-ment of customary spaces. Herewe replaced the tenureobjects inatablewherethex-axisrepresentsthe level of ownership and the y-axismanagemententities.

Wenotethatinasocio-ecosystemwith little degraded forest cover(Makokou,ingray)andalowpopu-lation density,most resources areessentiallypublic. The level of co-managementishigh, linkedtotheclan or to the community, few oftheseresourcesbelongtoanindi-vidual and the right of alienationdoesnotexist. Later in thetransi-tion,when the forest has retreat-ed,andthehumanpopulationhasincreased (Bokito, in green),mostresourcesareindividualizedandgoto alienation (right to sell or buy)with administrative recognition ofownership titles. Between thesetwo extremes, where the forestbeginstodecline,theaccessrulestotheseobjectsarefuzzyandvarybetweenpublicareasandsomeag-riculturallandswithpropertytitles.Changes in thephysical landscapeare mirrored in changes in rulesandinstitutions.

P.Gillet&C.Vermeulen.

MakokouGabon

MindourouCameroon

BokitoCameroon

Stephan Pietsch is a researcher at the In-ternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and an external profes-sor of ecosystem modeling at the University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences in Vienna. Since 2002, he organized and conducted extended fieldwork in tropical Africa to establish the datasets required for modeling tropical ecosystems under vary-ing degrees of disturbance and/or degradation. Besides pristine, managed and exploited forests, this includes open and wooded savannahs as well as agricultural land practices from slash and burn to agroforestry. His research focuses on indicators of ecosys-tem stability and resilience in face of climate change and hu-man disturbance.

The R package SCGLR developedby Mortier et al is available onCRAN: cran.r-project.org. It is amethodofmultivariateregressionon supervised components tomodel specific distributions thatwere used by the team for treecommunitiesintheCongoBasin.

The results ofthe differentwork packagesofCoForTipsandCoForSet werepresented at theATBC conference from June 19thto23rd,2016, inMontpellier. Formore information, see the pro-gramat www.atbc2016.org.

Integrated plateformWehavestudiedtheriskofdefor-estation in the Congo Basin usingtheglobaleconomicmodelGLOBI-OM,which focuses on agricultureandforestryactivities.Ourprelimi-nary results show that the defor-estedareaover2020-2030islikelytobetwiceasbigasthedeforestedareaover2000-2010,duetohigh-er population and higher averageconsumptionper-capita.

Fromourresults,cassava,ground-nutsandmaizearethemaincrops

responsible for cropland expan-sionandtheareadedicatedtothecultivation of palm oil also dou-blesbetween2010and2030.For-ests of the Littoral regions andoftheCenter parts of Cameroon, aswellastheBandunduandEasternparts of DRC are projected to beunder especially high pressure inthecomingdecades(Figurebelowcons).

In addition to human impacts,we have explored the probabil-ity of persistence and stability ofthe Congolian rainforests basedoncurrentclimateandsoil condi-tionswiththeBGCmodel(biogeo-chemistry, see figure below). Onthe map below, we see that therisk accumulates along the mete-orological equator (in black),withthe greatest probability of forestdegradation in the TRIDOM area(in red)wherethenaturalvegeta-tion- inadditiontoclosedforests-alsoincludesforestsandopensa-vannahs.TheforestdiebackeventsmodeledtothewestofBrazzavillecorrespond to the effect of rainshadow of the coastal mountainsof Mayombe, responsible for theincreased abundance of open sa-vannahsintheregion(greenbox).

MakokouGabon

MindourouCameroon

BokitoCameroon

Projected deforestation between 2010 and 2030

F orest dieback probability under current climate conditions

The definition corner

Livelihood

Livelihoodincludescapital,activities,andtheaccesstothiscapitalandactivitiesthroughinstitutionalandsocialrelationships,alltogetherdeterminingtheindividualorhouseholdwell-being[4].

Capital

Capital is defined as resources owned by individuals or communities. Under the SustainableLivelihood Framework, there are 5 types of capital: (1) natural capital or all natural resourcesincluding space that the actor has at his disposal, (2) human capital,whichbrings together theworkforce,butalsotheknow-how,education,(3)physicalcapitalorallofthetoolsandmobilizedinfrastructure(4)financialcapital,moneyinall itsforms,and(5)socialcapital,networkofallies,butalsolocalgovernancestandardsandcollectiveorganizationcapacitiesinthecommunity.Actorswillmobilizethesetypesofcapitalaccordingtotheirlifegoals,anddevelopastrategytoinsurethebestpossiblelivelihood[5].

[1]GilletP,VermeulenC,FeintrenieL,DessardH,GarciaC.2016.QuellessontlescausesdeladéforestationdanslebassinduCongo?Synthèsebibliographiqueetétudesdecas.Biotechnol.Agron.Soc.Environ.20(2),183-194

[2] Gillet P, Vermeulen C, Doucet J-L, Codina E, Lehnebach C, Feintrenie L. 2016.What Are the Impacts ofDeforestationontheHarvestofNon-TimberForestProductsinCentralAfrica?Forests.7,106.

[3] LeRoyE, KarsentyA,BertrandA. 1996. La sécurisation foncièreenAfrique. Pourunegestionviabledesressourcesrenouvelables.Ed.Paris,Karthala,388pp.

[4] Ellis, F. (2000), The Determinants of Rural Livelihood Diversification in Developing Countries. Journal ofAgriculturalEconomics,51:289–302.doi:10.1111/j.1477-9552.2000.tb01229.x

[5]IsabelGutierrez-Montes,MaryEmery&EdithFernandez-Baca(2009)TheSustainableLivelihoodsApproachandtheCommunityCapitalsFramework:The ImportanceofSystem-LevelApproaches toCommunityChangeEfforts,CommunityDevelopment,40:2,106-113

Project Partners

Associated Partners

ContactDr. Claude GarciaCIRAD-URB&SEF(BiensetServicesdesEcosystèmesForestierstropicaux),Baillarguet,34980Montpellier,FranceEmail:claude.garcia@cirad.frETH,ForDev(ForestManagementandDevelopment),Universitaetstrasse16,8092Zurich,SwitzerlandEmail:claude.garcia@usys.ethz.chPhone:+41(0)446323214www.cofortips.org

Realisation: Juliette Chamagne

Project Donors