new york state demographic trends

New York StateDemographic Trends

New York State Office for the AgingDepartment of State

Bob Scardamalia

NYS Dept. of Economic Development

September 4, 2008

• Demographic Forces Shaping New York’s Population

• Migration and Regional Patterns

• Age and Diversity

• Dependency and Housing

Robert Scardamalia, NYS Department of Economic Development, 9-4-08


Historical Population ChangeU.S. and New York State, 1930 to 2007

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007

Perc

en

t C

han

ge

High Foreign Immigration Baby Boom Growth Declining Fertility

Immigration Quotas Rural/Urban Migration Economic Downturn

High Foreign Immigration/Baby Boom Echo/Improved Economy


Percent Change, 2000 to 2007

8.2

1.7

0.1

2.1

24.5

2.6

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0

US

Arizona

NYS

Upstate

Downstate

Iowa

Percent

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census


Components of Population Change

New York, 1960 to 2007

-400

-200

0

200

400

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Th

ou

san

ds

Change Births Deaths Net M igr.


Migration and Regional Patterns



In-Migrants to New York by Origin,

All Ages, 1995 to 2000

Foreign

49%

Florida

5%M idwest

6% Other So. States

12%

California

5%

Other NE State

12%

New Jersey

7%

Other West.

States

4%



Out-Migrants from New York by Destination,

All Ages, 1995 to 2000

New Jersey

13%

California

6%

Other West.

States

7% Other So. States

28%

Florida

19%

M idwest

8%Other NE States

19%



Out-Migrants 65 and Over,

Selected Destinations, 1995 to 2000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Upstate Dow nstate Total

Florida and Southern States New Jersey and NE States


Age and Diversity


Population Pyramid

New York State 2030

-4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

Male

Female

Population Pyramid

New York State 2000

-6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

Male

Female



Growth in the Elderly Population, 2000 to 2030

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

65 and Over 85 and Over

Pe

rce

nt

United States New York State Upstate Downstate

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Cornell Program on Applied Demographics



Percent Change by Race and Hispanic Origin,

Population 65 and Over, 2000 to 2007

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

New York State Downstate Upstate

Hispanic White Alone Black Alone Asian Alone


Dependency and Housing


Living Arrangements of Persons 65 and Over,

New York State, 2000

Group Quarters

6%

Living Alone

30%

Family

Households

62%

Other Non-

relatives

2%



Homeownership of Householders

65 and Over, 2006

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

Householder 65+ Ow ner Householder 65+ Ow ner 65+ Alone

New York State Dow nstate Upstate



Percent of the 65 and Over Population with

Various Disabilities, New York State, 2000

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

Physical Mental Self-Care Go Outside the

Home

Perc

en

t



Caregivers: Traditional Supply and Demand

2000 to 2030

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

Women 25 to 54 Population 65 and Over

Perc

en

t C

han

ge

New York State Upstate Downstate

Source: Cornell Program on Applied Demographics



Dependency Ratio, New York State 1950 to 2030

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

1950 1980 2000

2030

1950 1980 2000 2030 1950 1980 2000 2030

Youth (Ages 0 to 19) Aged (Ages 65 and Over) Overall


Bob Scardamalia

NYS Dept. of Economic Development

Center for Research and

Information Analysis

(518) 292-5309

[email protected]

new york state demographic trends

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