European Demographic TrendsWith a focus on the second demographic transition and policy implications of population ageing.Bradley Tombleson19 July 2016

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Southampton

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Role:

Me: From:

International AmbassadorStudyin

g:

About me

BSc Population & Geography

City of Southampton

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Outline• Fertility

– Trends; Explanations; Future prospects• Mortality

– Trends; Inequalities (focus on UK)• Population Ageing

– Trends; Policy implications– Active Ageing Index (AAI)

Fertility

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Period fertility trends

Source: Frejka and Sobotka (2008)

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Fertility Decline: Explanation• Second Demographic Transition (Van de Kaa and

Lesthaeghe, 1986). Low fertility due to:– Female education– Ideational changes (individualism, autonomy)– Career aspirations

• ‘The family’ is now less important• New behaviours:

– Divorce & (non-marital) cohabitation– Delay of marriage/childbearing; childlessness– Childbearing outside of marriage

Source: Lesthaeghe (2010); Vitali and Mendola (2014)

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Mean age at childbearing

Source: Rindfuss and Brauner-Otto (2008)

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Issues with current (period) data

• TFR – Vulnerable to distortions /‘tempo shocks’

• Lack of cohort data (such as CFR)

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Postponement and fecundity• Infertility: a consequence of postponement• Later childbearing may cause lower TFR

49 years DEATH

15 years

Decision

Reproductive Lifespan

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Childlessness

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Voluntary or Involuntary?• ‘Voluntary’ childlessness:

– Cost of living– Career Aspirations– Time in education– Shortage of partners

• Involuntary childlessness:– Infertility– But: Assisted Reproductive

Technology (ART)

Source: Berrington (2015)

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The Forerunners?Eastern Europe;

‘Turkey’

Southern Europe; Germany

Northern Europe;Sweden

Source: Esping-Andersen and Billari (2015)

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Refugee Crises and Fertility

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“Brexit” and FertilityCurrent affairs and fertility expectations...

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Fertility: Summary• Decreasing• “Diverse, delayed & below-replacement”

(Frejka & Sobotka, 2005)• New behaviours & childlessness• Heterogeneity across Europe• Uncertain future

– ‘Low Fertility Trap’?

Mortality

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Life expectancy• Universal decreases in mortality• LE has subsequently increased

Source: Bongaarts (2014)

Inequalities: UK

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Inequality at Younger Ages• Infant Mortality Rate (IMR):

– Deaths < first birthday– 4 per 1,000 live births (ONS, 2013)

• Risk factors:– Age of mother at birth– Mother’s smoking status– Low birth weight

Source: ONS (2015); World Bank (2016)

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Inequality at Younger Ages

Source: Viner et al. (2014)

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Gender differential

Gender differential: Cause

Source: ONS (2015b)

Inequalities: Europe

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Mortality: Summary• Universal decline in mortality• Universal increase in LE• Inequality

– By gender (biological & behavioural)– By region

• Different causes of death– Cancer & age-related diseases

A “Grey” Europe

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Global Ageing

Source: ONS (2013) [Statistical bulletin: Estimates of the Very Old (including Centenarians), 2002-2012]

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Global Ageing

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Rise of the Centenarian

Source: OECD (2016] [“Territorial Reviews: Japan 2016”]

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Negative Perspective• Burden of pensions (and age-related services)• Labour force shrinkage• Healthy life expectancy dilemma

– Measured through: the need for assistance with ADLs:

• Compression/expansion of morbidity• Living alone (& care provision issues)

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Policy Implications: Theory• Pensions Policy

– Preventing poverty in old age– Income to match living standards of working life

• Fiscal Policy– Economic expansion; structural adjustment; welfare state

• Labour market Policy– Economically Active : Economically Inactive

(Employed : Unemployed/retired)

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Policy Implications: Reality• Pensions Policy

– Retirement Age: UK; Germany; Denmark– Malus / Bonus: ~All– Personal contributions: Poland; Slovakia– Privatisation: Italy; Poland

• Fiscal Policy– Deficit: All (Ireland; Greece)

• Labour market Policy– Imminent challenges: All (Poland; Slovakia; Greece;

Bulgaria)

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Positive Perspective• It’s not all bad, if:

– Individuals are able to remain ‘active’ in old age(economically and/or socially)

• Active Ageing Index (AAI) [Asghar Zaidi, UoS]

39Source: http://www1.unece.org/stat/platform/display/AAI/Active+Ageing+Index+Home

40Source: http://www1.unece.org/stat/platform/display/AAI/Active+Ageing+Index+Home

‘Northern’ Europe

‘Central’/’Western’ Europe

‘Eastern’ Europe

Summary

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Summary• Fertility holds a less certain future, compared to

mortality.

• Demographic trends are heterogeneous across Europe – particularly given recent regional events.

• Ageing has the capacity to bring great challenges, but its impact may be lessened… Providing policy adapts soon!