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New Realities of Geopolitics

Andrew Trabulsi September 2015

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Did global terrorist attacks increase or decrease "after the U.S. launched its global War on Terror?

Global Terrorist Attacks 1968 - 2014

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

1800019

6819

6919

7019

7119

7219

7319

7419

7519

7619

7719

7819

7919

8019

8119

8219

8319

8419

8519

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8919

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9119

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9519

9619

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9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

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Attacks per year

Linear (Attacks per year)

Sources: RAND Database of Worldwide Terrorist Incidents; National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism, Global Terrorism Database 3

“[T]he deliberate creation and exploitation of fear through violence or the threat of violence in pursuit of polit ical change.” – Bruce Hoffman

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•  Violence or the threat of violence •  Calculated to create fear and alarm •  Intended to coerce certain actions •  Motive must include a polit ical objective •  Generally directed against civi l ian targets •  Can be a group or an individual

Attacks include: suicide missions, hijackings, armed attacks, bombings, kidnappings, firearms, explosives, chemical agents, knives, vehicles.

Terrorism defined

Source: RAND Database of Worldwide Terrorist Incidents

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Has cocaine trafficking into the United States increased or decreased since the start of the "

War on Drugs?

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U.S. cocaine seizures 1980 - 2013

Source: UNODC, World Drug Report 2014

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25,000

50,000

75,000

100,000

125,000

150,000

175,000

200,000

225,000 19

80

1981

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2011

2012

2013

Cocaine seizures in U.S. (kg)

Linear (Cocaine seizures in U.S. (kg))

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From 2008 to 2012 which country had more than twice as many drug-related homicides as the number of people (military

and civilian) killed in Iraq and Afghanistan combined? ""

Mexico (121,669) "Iraq and Afghanistan (about 55,000)

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What does this mean for the future of governance?

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Non-state actors, across a range of geographies, challenge and supplant states, markets, and "

existing social institutions in periods of "turbulence, turmoil, and transition.

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Warlord entrepreneurs: maestros of global black markets

The Rise of the Warlord Entrepreneur

•  Between 3.6 percent and 27 percent global GDP (US$2.5 T and US$19.5 T annually) •  Money laundering: 2-5 percent global GDP •  Human trafficking: 27 million people •  Environmental crimes: US$23 B annually

Source: UNODC

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Over time, the lines between black, grey, and white markets blur, and warlord enterprises become

indistinguishable from other forms of organization including the state itself.

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Evolution across five stages

I.  Experimentation II.  Institutionalization III.  Diversification IV.  Regionalization V.  Globalization

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Main trafficking flows of opiates

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Islamic State Sanctuary July 2014

Source: Institute for the Study of War

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Islamic State Sanctuary June 2015

Source: Institute for the Study of War

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Five New Realities

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Reality #1:��

International security is more complex than it ever has been�

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Reality #2:��

States are not what they once were

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Reality #3:��

Non-states are everything that states are not�

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Reality #4:��

The distinction between foreign and domestic security is gone�

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Reality #5:��

Globalization has dark sides�

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Concluding Remarks

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Thank you!