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Finding faster growth: new products and services

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Visualisation is providing ICT researchers with vital insights as to the real potential of futuristic technologies and the barriers that must be overcome if consumers are to embrace them enthusiastically.

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This dire warning issued by Jeff Goldblum’s mathematician character in the film Jurassic Park has a special resonance for those working in R&D for the ICT industry. The role of ICT development teams is to establish what is possible, to map where technology could go next. Yet the question of where technology should go remains largely outside their control, governed above all by the mysterious forces of consumer demand.

Those forces are a greater mystery for those working in ICT than for many other sectors. With no actual personal experience to draw upon, it is difficult for consumers to give meaningful answers about their attitudes to, and potential use of previously unimaginable solutions. The further the ICT industry stares into the future, the more difficult it is for consumers to imagine the role that putative technologies could or could not play – and

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the more difficult it therefore is for researchers to guide the R&D process. ICT development may take place in an ivory tower – but it is not an ivory tower of the developers’ own making.

The fourth phase of the Münchner Kreis Future Study, an annual research programme conducted by TNS on behalf of major German and international companies and institutions, tackles the conundrum of generating meaningful data on consumer attitudes head-on. The study’s previous three phases had focused on qualitative and quantitative surveys of ICT experts, both within Germany and internationally, in order to establish the potential for incremental innovation across the ICT and media industries. Armed with such insights, the Future Study for 2011 turned its attentions to the question of which innovative technologies have the greatest potential for consumer uptake in the future, identifying potential barriers and the preconditions necessary for successful launches.

“Your scientists were so preoccupied with whether they could that they didn’t stop to think if they should.”

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Feeding the consumer imaginationTo overcome the problem of relating never-before-seen technology to current consumer experiences, the researchers turned to visualisation. Leveraging the insights from previous phases, they developed 16 ‘Pictures of the Future’ to illustrate how incremental innovation and the application of technologies in new combinations and categories, could potentially impact on consumer experiences.

Each of the 16 pictures consisted of an image and accompanying description that translated complex, technical visions into everyday language. Importantly, these pictorial concepts linked futuristic ideas to relevant, known functions and services – a form of visual shorthand that ensured greater meaning for the survey respondents. The pictures were developed for a range of seven different life situations: Living, staying healthy, maintaining mobility, consumption and payment, entertainment and storage, learning and knowledge and work and organisation.

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Examples of ‘Pictures of the Future’

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In this way, consumers were asked to imagine scenarios in which on-demand cars automatically delivered themselves to the locations where they were required, dealings with city services took place wholly online, energy-using devices in the home turned themselves off and on according the availability of renewable-sourced electricity and ICT solutions took over the job of monitoring patients’ health in the home, replacing more regular contact with doctors.

The sample group of 7,231 participants, evenly spread across Germany, Sweden, the USA, Brazil, China and Korea, were asked to identify the aspects of different pictures that they viewed positively or critically. They then answered further questions on issues such as their willingness to pay for the services, and their expectations as to when they should become available.

Examples of ‘Pictures of the Future’

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Key themes and concernsAcross markets a number of key themes emerged from the participants’ responses, providing vital insight into the overriding concerns of consumers – and the issues that technology companies must address if they are to launch services successfully in the future.

Privacy protectionConsumer fears about the unauthorised storage and criminal misuse of their data confirm the importance of firmly embedded, credibly enforced data and privacy protection rules as a necessary precondition if ICT solutions are to be adopted by mainstream consumers.

User friendlinessEase of use is a given in consumer expectations of ICT solutions. Any technology provider must ensure simplicity and accessibility if they are to launch services successfully. Across sectors, the most successful ICT products set new standards in this area.

Willingness to payConsumers no longer expect ICT solutions to be delivered for free, however willingness to pay varies considerably by region and the type of solution offered. Consumers are most willing to pay where solutions offer comprehensive new services rather than simply information.

Trust in ICTA lack of trust in ICT solutions represents one of the most significant challenges for those in business, science and politics who seek to launch new technologies. Consumers worldwide expressed fears about system outages, services becoming unavailable and data becoming lost. Prior experience of unreliable or immature solutions appears to be a major contributory factor here. A new approach to beta-testing and new forms of system design, clearly communicated to potential users, may be essential for the take-up of new technologies in many areas.

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Examples of ‘Pictures of the Future’

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Examples of ‘Pictures of the Future’

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Enthusiasm and scepticism: key geographical differencesTo a significant degree, potential consumers in China, Korea and Brazil proved consistently more positive in their view of the potential for ICT solutions, their willingness to pay for them, and their trust in the capability of the solutions to deliver on their promises. These findings suggest that ICT companies in markets such as Germany, Sweden and the USA, which enjoy ready access to the skills required to develop innovative solutions, may need to target these technologies first at emerging markets before re-importing them to their home territories.

Picturing future opportunitiesDespite the reservations that potential providers must overcome, the study highlighted significant areas of opportunity for ICT, where solutions to different life situations are likely to engender healthy consumer demand across different markets.

LivingThe ‘automatic energy manager’, a ‘picture of the future’ that invited respondents to imagine a system for automatically controlling energy use in the home to match the availability of renewable electricity sources, highlighted the need for more transparency on energy pricing and better communication of the finite nature of resources, in order to drive consumer take-up.

The notion of ‘healthcare assistants’, devices that enable people to live independently at home in old age, found a large, receptive market in China but was met with some scepticism in Europe, where potential users expressed concern over loss of social contacts,

excessive costs and unreliable technology. A broader, well-defined support network for those living at home appears to be an essential starting point for such solutions in European markets.

Staying healthyWhen it came to the role of technology in keeping consumers healthy, applications to help users communicate more effectively with doctors were met with far greater enthusiasm than those that transmitted data to doctors automatically. Greater levels of trust in technology and those providing tele-monitoring services are essential if autonomous technology is to take more of the initiative in the monitoring of medical conditions – although these reservations were far more pronounced in the European and US markets than in China, Korea and Brazil. Interestingly, users are far more inclined to pay for tele-monitoring services when tangible hardware is involved – providing vital insights on how to package such solutions effectively for consumer take-up.

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Consumers in China, Korea and Brazil proved consistently more positive in their view of the potential for ICT solutions

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Maintaining mobilityIn the field of mobility, the ‘pictures of the future’ approach revealed strong potential interest in solutions that solve well-established consumer needs. Respondents were asked to imagine personal mobility assistants, which provide end-to-end support in planning and conducting long-distance trips, automatically booking tickets and making reservations; networked vehicles that use ambient communications technology to detect hazards and avoid traffic; and autonomous vehicles, available on demand, which drive themselves to the point where a user requests them.

As with many other scenarios, the key to mainstream take-up of such technologies rests on packaging them in a way that can overcome reluctance to pay, and building up trust in relevant technologies and technology providers to the extent that consumers have faith in them to take control, whether in spending their money on travel reservations and bookings or deciding when to brake. When it came to the concept of an autonomous car making itself available on-demand, familiar scepticism as to the capability of technology to

deliver on its promises emerged in Europe and the USA, whereas consumers in China, Brazil and Korea showed immediate interest.

Consumption and paymentAcross markets, consumers recognise the value of new payment options, with users in the USA and Europe more cautious about the benefits than those in China,

Brazil and Korea. The concepts of mobile shopping and mobile wallets are welcomed, although with significant reservations about the security of payment details and personal data. End-to-end digital banking services, which remove the need to open accounts in person, were met with enthusiasm in Sweden, Brazil, Korea and China, whereas users in the USA and Germany doubted whether such a solution would ever be feasible.

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Examples of ‘Pictures of the Future’

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Entertainment and storageThe concept of a lifetime data safe, providing reliable, secure storage of digital content that can then be accessed from anywhere, proved a popular ‘picture of the future’ across markets, fitting with the long-term trend towards the digital storage and consumption of content. The concept of a personal TV, enabling users to view on a range of devices, at any time or place that suits them, also met with enthusiasm, although reservations emerged as to potentially complicated user experiences. For future providers of such services, clear and simple functionality is essential.

Learning and knowledgeInnovative forms of teaching and learning are an area of great opportunity for ICT solutions, reflecting growing consumer demand for continuous learning. Participants responded positively when asked to picture an electronic textbook, which could enable independent, networked learning for adults or cut down on the weight of books in schoolchildren’s bags. Concerns about cost and data privacy, especially where children are concerned, are the major barriers for potential providers to address.

Work and organisationThe ‘pictures of the future’ developed around the theme of ‘work and organisation’ involve consumers dealing directly with the issues of security and personal privacy that form potential barriers to take-up of many ICT solutions. Key insights to emerge from the study include strong appetite for the

concept of an online data manager that could give users direct control over access to their data, provided trust could first be established for any provider of the service. There was also recognition of the benefits of a digital city service office that could move many of consumers’ dealings with municipalities into the online space.

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New opportunities, new challengesThe expert-focused previous phases of the Future Study had already demonstrated the speed with which ICT is transforming consumer experiences. In helping potential users to imagine ICT playing a role in previously unimaginable situations, the fourth phase of the study has highlighted wholly new opportunities for growth. At the same time, though, it revealed significant barriers to adoption that companies or governments must address in order to prepare the ground for such technologies to enter the mainstream. In enabling meaningful consumer responses to futuristic scenarios, the Pictures of the Future approach has a vital role to play in informing the R&D process and providing a regular sounding board that can continue to link developing concepts to potential future demand.

For its next phase, in 2012, the Future Study will continue to focus on the user, leveraging the insights provided through the Pictures of the Future to ask detailed questions about daily life experiences and ideal requirements for technology.

A ‘trend landscape’ will be compiled, mapping out consumers’ priority needs going forward. By identifying areas of strong demand for innovation, the study will provide insights on adapting solutions to future consumer priorities.

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Examples of ‘Pictures of the Future’

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About InFocusInFocus is part of a regular series of articles that takes an in-depth look at a particular subject, region or demographic in more detail. All articles are written by TNS consultants and based on their expertise gathered through working on client assignments in over 80 markets globally, with additional insights gained through TNS proprietary studies, such as Digital Life and Mobile Life.

About TNS TNS advises clients on specific growth strategies around new market entry, innovation, brand switching and stakeholder management, based on long-established expertise and market-leading solutions. With a presence in over 80 countries, TNS has more conversations with the world’s consumers than anyone else and understands individual human behaviours and attitudes across every cultural, economic and political region of the world. TNS is part of Kantar, one of the world’s largest insight, information and consultancy groups.

Please visit www.tnsglobal.com for more information.

Get in touch If you would like to talk to us about anything you have read in this report, please get in touch via enquiries@tnsglobal.com or via Twitter @tns_global

About the authorsDr. Malthe Wolf is Director of the Future Research Centre at TNS Germany. Malthe specialises in technology and media, working with clients from all sectors interested in how ICT and new media will influence our future. He and his team continue to pioneer new methodologies for assessing the impact of future developments.

Stefanie Sagl is Senior Consultant in the Future Research Centre at TNS Germany. Stefanie is also a technology and media specialist, with specific expertise in implementing syndicated studies.