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New Feedstocks and Replacement Fuels - Future Energy for MobilityAn Energy Company Perspective
August 23, 2006 DEER Conference Detroit, MI
BP Global Fuels Technology Dr. James Simnick, PhD
Outline
• Challenges for Fuels
• Energy Resources and Security
• Energy Options
• Pathways
• Biomass to Fuels – Short Term
– Longer Term
• BP’s Biofuels Activity
• Fuels Perspective
What are the challenges for fuels?
Three key drivers of sustainable mobility solutions
•Air quality – particularly in developing markets
•Energy diversification and supply security
•Climate change
Economics & customer preference set the pathway
Heavy-duty diesel highway regulations force PM & NOx control PM
, g/
kW-h
r; ES
C te
st
NOx, g/kW-hr; ESC test
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0 1 2 3 4 5 6Euro VI 2010? DPF+NOx
Euro V 2008 SCR
Japan 2008? DPF+NOx
US2010 DPF+NOx
US2007 DPF+EGR
Euro III 2000 nothing
US2004 (2002) DOC
Euro IV 2005 SCR
Japan 2005 DPF
From Corning, Inc.
Energy resources & security ofsupply
• Transport sector dependent on oil
• Oil availability sufficient out to ~2030
• Gas reserves somewhat more geographically dispersed than oil
• Huge coal reserves aligned with demand centers
• Renewables have large theoretical potential and generally more dispersed
• Regional drivers vary widely (LAQ, Security, GHG)
energy security - import dependence
Mb/d Oil bcm Natural gas
Importers
EU
US
Asian LNG (Japan, Korea Taiwan)
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1993 1995 1997 1999
Russia ex FSU
Other Europe pipeline
Pacific/M E LNG
Exporters
2001 2003
Canada
Atlantic LNG
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15 US
Iraq
M E OPEC (excl Iraq)
Other Dev.
China
FSU
Importers
Exporters -150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
Climate change and GHGs
Projection of CO2 and Temperature to 2100
1950 2000 2050
14
7
CO
2 C
once
ntra
tions
, ppm
T0C
6400423000 -2200
1800 1900 2000 2100C
O2
Em
issi
ons
(Gt C
/yea
r)
700
600
500
Business as usual world CO2Global CO2
Global Temperaturesemissions growth scenario A world growth trajectory leading tostabilisation
Source: Based on data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Options beyond Peak Oil
• Heavy Oil / Tar Sands – 300 billion barrels Canadian resource with current
economics
– 1 trillion barrels ultimate Canadian resource
– Venezuelan deposits comparable magnitude
• Shale Oil – US Resource Base 1.2 trillion barrels
– Renewed DOE and Shell publicity
• Fischer Tropsch Liquids – 1 Million BSD announced Gas to Liquids Projects in Qatar
– Wyoming / Rentech study of Coal to Liquids ($40 / bbl)
– China: Fischer Tropsch or DiMethyl Ether from Coal
Renewable Fuels Options
• Biomass – Direct conversion to liquids
– Gasification
• Food Crops – Sugar Based Ethanol
– Oil Based Biodiesel
• Renewable Hydrogen
BP fuels pathway to the future
Zero carbon
Low carbon
Intensive carbon Fu
el te
chno
logy
/ GH
G e
mis
sion
redu
ctio
n
Vehicle Technology/ Time
Fuel Cell
Hybrid
Use of existing Fuel distribution infrastructure
new infrastructure
Internal Combustion Engine
Future biomass
carbon hydrogen
Conventional biocomponents
conversion
Clean conventional
increased dieselisation
Future evolution of technologies
fuels including
gasoline and diesel
Renewable or low
Cost for Substitution
WTW GHG Benefit vs. Cost %
GH
G B
enef
itvs
. Gas
olin
e/di
esel
bas
elin
es
High Benefit, Moderate Cost High Benefit, High Cost
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
€/100km
H2 from Natural Gas/fuel cell
H2 -combustion engine
FT Diesel Ex wood
GTL Diesel
0.5 2.5 7.01.0 3.5 3.02.01.5 4.0 4.5
Conventional Biofuels
Advanced Biofuels Renewable & low
carbon Hydrogen
Lower Benefit, Lower Cost
Reference-WTW Analysis of Future Automotive Fuels &
/European Commission Joint Research Centre
Biodiesel
Powertrains in the European Context-Version 2a,December 2005. Concawe/European Council for Automotive R&D
Ethanol sugar beet
6.56.0 7.5 5.55.0
Ethanol wheat
LC Ethanol Ex wood
RME
H2-Renewable fuel cell
8.0
CNG
Biofuels Overview - the carbon cycle CO2
one carbon atom as CO2 removed from atmosphere during photosynthesis
Carbon in crop or
crop residue
-C-in cellulose/sugar/starch
Biomassgrowth
+
CO2
Same carbon returned to Atmosphere as CO2
-C--C- -C-in fuel molecules in fuel molecules
Processing to produce biofuel Biofuel Use in vehicle
WTW GHG emission result for biomass
= pathways. Contribution + from above closed cycle is zero
External energy and associated External energy and emissions External energy for GHG emissions for farming (eg from
fertiliser use) for fuel production process distribution & transportation
Biofuels – Pathways
Ethanol for gasoline
Esters for diesel
sugar & starch crops oil crops
Other blend components or precursors
Further conversion
Superior Fuel Molecules
Lignocellulosics etc.
Two technologies look to offer greatestpromise
Sugar Platform Biological Conversion
Low intensityBiomass
(waste, cellulosics )
Syngas Platform FT or other conversion
Fuel
Molecules
Fuels that can be produced from domestic, renewable resources in high volume and reasonable
Fuels that can be used in existing vehicles and existing infrastructure
Fuels that offer good value to consumers
Fuels that meet the evolving demands of vehicles
What is needed?
33Fuels that can be produced from domestic, renewable resources in high volume and
cost.reasonable cost.
33Fuels that can be used in existing vehicles and existing infrastructure
33Fuels that offer good value to consumers
33Fuels that meet the evolving demands of vehicles
BP’s Biofuels Activity Europe
• British Sugar plant in UK for biobutanol production •First major to introduce 5% FAME blend in Germany • Across Europe ETBE replaces MTBE •EBI Institute University TBD
Indiaof B2B, evaluating more $9.4M project of
•EBI Institute University TBD Jatropha “oil bearing •E85 introduction in selected
•Supplying Ethanol crops” for diesel fuel
US • Largest user of Ethanol in gasoline • 20 new markets added in
• Biodiesel to small number
markets by end of 2006
to retail sites in QLD
widespread customer offer
Asia •Round table sustainPalm Oil
ANZ
•Renewable diesel via tallow
a
2005
BP’s New Biofuels Business
• Formed a new Biofuels business in June • Announced plans to invest $500 M in new
Energy Biosciences Institute to provide apipeline of biofuels technology for thebusiness
• Will partner with science company DuPont to develop advanced biofuels-the first introduction is biobutanol.
• BP & DuPont collaborating with British Sugar to convert an ethanol fermentation facility to produce biobutanol
• Initial production targeted in the UK during 2007
Fuels Perspective
• Need consumer’s acceptance – Reliable, consistent, convenient – Cost-Effective – Quality & Fit for Purpose
• Societal Requirements – Energy efficient, wells-to-wheels analysis – Low carbon/no carbon, reduce GHG – Impact on environment
– Air – Water – Soil
– Safe – Infrastructure – Vehicle requirements
– Systems Approach – Fuel + Vehicle + Engine + After treatment
Public Policy Framework
• Focus on goals
– Give the market room to develop innovative solutions
• Emphasize solutions that can be used in existing vehicles and delivered through existing infrastructure
– These will provide the quickest results at the lowest cost
• Make room for innovation
– Yesterday’s molecules may not be the best answer for today’s vehicles
– Research can produce improved solutions for tomorrow – but only if they are allowed room to compete in the marketplace
Conclusion
• BP sees an exciting and challenging future – Continuous improvement in conventional vehicles, engines
& fuels
– New opportunities in Alternative Fuels
– Biomass based – Sugar & Gasification – New Molecules
– Route to hydrogen
– Work with USDOE and European Governments
– Customer requirements