the future of fuels for transportation
DESCRIPTION
The Future of Fuels for Transportation. Presented at the World Future Society's Annual Conference World Future 2007: Fostering Hope and Vision for the 21st Century July 30, 2007, Minneapolis, MN . Massoud Amin, CDTL Director/Chair & Professor ECE, Univ. of Minnesota - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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The Future of Fuels for TransportationPresented at the World Future Society's Annual Conference
World Future 2007: Fostering Hope and Vision for the 21st Century
July 30, 2007, Minneapolis, MN
Massoud Amin, CDTL Director/Chair & Professor ECE, Univ. of MinnesotaDavid Keenan, Vice President, Minnesota Futurists
Rolf Nordstrom, Executive Director, Great Plains Institute
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Background
• Price of fuel for cars and light trucks is increasing– Increasing demand from developing populations– Declining discoveries of crude oil– Conflicts in oil producing regions
• US consumer demand exceeds US supply – Reliance on exports– Energy security concern
• Burning gasoline for transportation creates environmental problems, smog, CO2, etc.
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Background
• Global light vehicle ( cars and light trucks) production - 55 to 60 million/yr• Estimated 500 million light vehicles in use
– 78% gasoline– 22% diesel
• Growth of Ownership
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Context:
• In the U.S., we have:- 2% of the World’s oil reserve;- 8% of World oil production;- 5% of the World population;
- we consume 25% of World’s production, and - more than 2/3 of our consumption is
imported.
• Emerging economies increased demand are changing the “balance,” e.g. China,
- China has bought excess capacity of Canada, - Almost bought Unocal; major commitments from Mideast. - In 2005 we launched one new submarine,
- China launched 14 (albeit lower quality)…
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Context: Cities with 10 million people
• By 2020, more than 30 mega-cities in the now less-developed world. By 2050, nearly 60 such cities.
• Increased population creates need for more resources. World's electricity supply will need to triple by 2050 to keep up with demand, necessitating nearly 10,000 GW of new generating capacity.
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U.S. Transportation Demands More Oil
Source: Transportation Energy Data Book Edition 20, DOE/ORNL-6959, October 2000, and EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2001, DOE/EIA-0383(2001), December 2000.
Highway Carbon Emissions(million metric tons)
1990 2000 2010 2020325 386 474 541
0
2
4
6
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10
12
14
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Mill
ion
Bar
rels
per
Day
Domestic Oil Production
Pass
enge
r Veh
icle
sC
omm
erci
al
Vehi
cles
Automobiles
Light Trucks
Heavy Trucks
Actual Projected
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0
5
10
15
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35
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1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Trill
ion
Cub
ic F
eet
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Billi
on B
arre
ls
NG Historic ProductionProjected U.S. NG ProductionProjected World Oil Production
Estimates of World Conventional Oil Production & U.S. Natural Gas
Production
Source: Department of Energy
Supply Considerations
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EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2006
0
20
40
60
80
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
HistoryAEO2005AEO2006
Figure 1. World Oil Price*, 1980-2030(2004 dollars per barrel)
*World oil price is the weighted average price of imported low sulfur light crude oil.
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Issues facing US consumers• What fuel price would influence you
to choose a new vehicle type?• Europe currently pays about $6/gal
due to taxes• US is considering increasing gas tax• What vehicles will be available?• What fueling station infrastructure will
be convenient?
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Answering Consumer ChallengesAn Example: Galvin Electricity Initiative• Each day, roughly 500,000 Americans spend at least two hours
without electricity (cost to our economy $150B/year). – The future looks even worse. Without substantial innovation
and investment, rolling blackouts and soaring power bills will become a persistent fact of life in this country.
• Mission: The Galvin Electricity Initiative is leading a campaign to create a perfect power system. A perfect power system cannot fail the consumer. It is environmentally sound and fuel-efficient. It is robust and resilient; able to withstand natural and weather-related disasters and mitigate the potential damage caused by terrorist attack. The perfect power system provides affordable electricity to all consumers and allows consumers to control their own energy use to the extent they choose.
• History: The Galvin Electricity Initiative was officially launched in 2005, but its genesis dates back to the massive East Coast blackout of August 2003, which left nearly 50 million people without power and inspired former Motorola chief to take action.
Source: http://www.galvinpower.org/
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S&T Assessment, Scan and Map (April 2005-Feb 2006; Galvin Electricity Initiative, Task 3, Phase 1)
Objectives: • Identify the most significant Science &
Technology innovations which would meet energy service needs over the next 10 or 20 years.
• Determine Science & Technologies areas and concepts which address customer aspirations and hopes:– Technologies that encourage job creation and address
the needs of the society;– An energy system so robust and resilient that it will not
fail; – A totally reliable, secure communication system that will
not fail.
Source: Galvin Electricity Initiative http://www.galvinpower.org/
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Societal/Human Needs→ Technology → System
What will be its What will be its needs for needs for systems systems
consuming consuming energy energy
(functionally)?(functionally)?
What existing What existing and emerging and emerging
technologies can technologies can meet those meet those
needs?needs?
How will society How will society evolve?evolve?
What power What power system system
implications do implications do those solutions those solutions
imply?imply?
Are there entirely new Are there entirely new pivotal technologies pivotal technologies
which could be potentially which could be potentially available?available?
Are there applications of pivotal Are there applications of pivotal science and technology outside science and technology outside
energy that may apply?energy that may apply?
Killer Ap?Killer Ap?Will those Will those influence influence society?society?
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How do we figure out what may work?
Consumer Needs
Technology Potential
Technology Scan
• Identify societal attributes
• How may society’s technology needs evolve (scenario)?
• What will be the technology needs of
those societies?• Identify dominant
needs
• Determine the potential of known
(existing and emerging)
technologies• Determine where
clustersof applications
exist
• Scan the technology horizon broadly for innovation
possibilities
Nodes ofOpportunity
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Examples of Technology strengths of the industry today
Information Science
Physical Science
leading
strong
capable
14
Industry Application
Status
Industry’s TechnologyPowerZone™™
Examples of Technology strengths of the industry today include:1.Power Electronics2.Adv. Electric motors3.Wind generation4.Nuclear Power5.Solar power6.Systems integration7.Real-time systems control8.Personal storage devices9.Power conditioning10.Efficient illumination11.Emission control12.Turbine generation13.Adv. Materials technology14.Security technology
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812
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Bio- and Life Sciences
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Expanding the Power Zone
Physical Biological
InfoA. Distributed control
B. Electronic power commerceC. Distributed
generation/storageD. Integrated common
infrastructureE. Integrated/Embedded PV
AB
C
D
E
F Wireless backupG Granular Semi-autonomous
ArchitectureH Fractal Grid Lego Model
I Lego ModelJ Plug and play appliancesF
G
J
H
I
Technology Map for the Granular Semi-Autonomous Architecture
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Expanding and Transforming the Power Zone
Information Science
Physical Science
Bio./LifeScience
17
2 5
63
8
4
Bench-marking
Existing Power Zone
ExtendedPower Zone
Technology Map for Bio-fuel Systems,
Distributed Gen and Storage systems integrated with
Advanced Information Systems for Network
Management
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R& D Strategies and Examples of Technology areas
Develop into
Products
Identify Real Applications to
Pull Technology
High Potential -- Elaborate, Expand, Drive Investment
Alliances, Government,
University
Not strategic - evaluate as
separate opportunity
Sustain and Grow-Industry and other
resources
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Future Consumer Needs
Transportation
Relieve Congestion
Reduce Energy Use
Revitalize Cities
Serve Diverse
Communities
Source: Galvin Electricity Initiative
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Big 4 issues automakers face in meeting those needs
1. Energy diversity2. Climate change3. Population and
Congestion4. Air quality
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Transportation Fuel Options that Meet These Challenges are Limited
1. Electricity (plugging into the grid): Requires “greening the grid” and solving storage/battery issues
2. Liquids from coal: Without CCS*, this would be worse than gasoline from a climate standpoint
3. Biofuels: UCS study on biofuels suggested that they could perhaps meet 30 to 50% of U.S. transportation fuel needs. We’ll still need that other 50%!
4. Hydrogen: Made from renewable and low-carbon sources
* CCS: Carbon Capture and Sequestration
Co-Evolution of Vehicles & Fuels
Conventional ICE vehicles
“ICE” = Internal Combustion Engine
Flex-fuel ICE vehicles (E-
85 & gasoline)
Hybrid-ICE vehicles
Cleaner diesel ICE vehicles
Plug-in hybrid ICE flex-fuel vehicles Battery can be recharged by the electric grid, extending the vehicle’s electric-only range.
Hybrid Fuel Cell vehicles
Hybrid ICE & Fuel Cell Vehicles AND/OR
Plug-in Hybrid ICE & Fuel Cell
vehicles
www.gpisd.net
GasolineDiesel
Gasoline & Diesel (176,000 gas stations)
Corn Ethanol (E85) (100s of U.S. stations)
Soy Biodiesel (100s of U.S. stations)Natural Gas
(1,600 stations in U.S.)
Hydrogen (~ 100 stations worldwide)
Gasoline & Diesel Hydrogen
Grid ElectricityBiofuels from cellulose
& other renewable sources
Fuels from coal w/CO2 capture &
sequestration
Low- no-CO2 Hydrogen
Low- no-CO2 Grid Electricity
Biofuels from cellulose & other
renewable sourcesFuels from coal w/CO2 capture &
sequestration
VEHICLES evolving toward hybrids = less oil, air pollution and greenhouse gases
We are here.
(97% reliant on OIL)
Little/no OIL in transportation by
2050
FUELS evolving toward domestic, low- no-CO2 options
1901
1993-1997-2009
20102020 & beyond
Date of 1st mass vehicle introduction
1) Few alternatives to gasoline
2) Must move along evolutionary path ASAP
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One Transition Strategy: GEM Flexibly Fuel Vehicles (FFV) One Tank To Hold Them All
G: Gasoline
E: Ethanol
M: Methanol
With an FFV, you choose each day which to buyAt $100-200/car, a more open competition, level playing field, better unleash the power of the free market40% of new cars in Brazil GE flexible already
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Vehicle & Fuel Evolution Already Underway
Both GM and Toyota pursuing:
– Hybrid ICEs– Plug-in ICEs– Plug-in hydrogen fuel
cell electrics.Honda FCX
Ford Edge
Chevy Volt
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Chevy Volt as example of vehicle trends
• Fuel cell is simply used as a range-extender (not as a replacement for the ICE).
• The fuel cell simply keeps the battery charged
• Easier to put electric infrastructure in place than H2 infrastructure.
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Do any hydrogen vehicles exist today?
• Every major automaker has prototypes
• 400-500 vehicles on the road
• 38 Hybrid Priuses have been converted to run on hydrogen, most operating in 5 cities in LA basin
• At least 10 types of H2 ICE vehicles deployed or being developed
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When might you buy a fuel cell vehicle?
• Automakers racing to be first; GM says by 2011
• Both Honda and BMW have announced plans to go to production BEFORE 2010
• Others think longer or never
• First vehicles are fleets
GM’s Sequel, 300 mile range
GM putting 100 of these on the road in 2007
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GM Targets for Deployment
2007 to 2010: 100 vehicles (10 stations) 2011 to 2013: 1000 vehicles (100 stations)2014 to 2016: 10,000 vehicles (250 stations)
Commercial deployment in mass market
Chevy “Volt” plug-in hybrid
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1st fuel cell family has completed first year
Jon and Sandy Spallino and daughters, Redondo Beach, California
Honda FCX4
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Are there any hydrogen stations today?
• >100 stations worldwide • California has 23 stations; 15
more underway; 100 planned by 2010
• 1st public station in Washington DC
• 170 new stations planned (VT, OH, CA, DC, FL, NV, NY, etc.)
• CA, FL, NY, Canada, Japan and Norway have “H2 highway” projects
H2 Highway in BC
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Transitional Phases
I. Technology Development Phase
II. In itial Market Penetration Phase
III. Infrastructure Investm ent Phase
IV. Fully Developed Market and Infrastructure Phase
Strong Governm ent R&D Role
Strong Industry Comm ercialization Role
2 000
2020
2010
2030
2040
PhaseI
PhaseII
PhaseIII
PhaseIV
RD & D I
Transition to th e M arketplace
Com m ercialization D ecision
II
E xpansio n of M arkets and In frastructure III
Realizatio n of the Hydrog en Eco nom y IV
U.S. Goal: Fuel cell vehicles in the showroom and hydrogen at filling stations by 2020
How Soon?
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Market Transformation of Electric Drive Vehicles
Source: EPRI
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1) Electricity
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Tomorrow’s Grid
• Smart– with sensors
• Flexible and Resilient– an intelligent network with real-
time monitoring and control• Self Healing
– capable of predicting or immediately containing outages with adaptive islanding and fast isolation or sectionalizing
• Established Standards– enabling “plug and play”
distributed resources and digital appliances and devices
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Role of Vehicles and Fuel Cells in the ‘Smart Grid’
• Distributed Energy Resources (DER)– Power quality and reliability– Backup– Load leveling – when loads and prices are high
• DER potentially 25% U.S. electricity in 2020• ‘Plug and Play’ capability
– Grid design for multiple power flows– Standards– Equipment ‘signatures’ and requirements
• ‘Smart Vehicles’ from interconnected power systems and communications
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Value Proposition• Energy security as electricity provides fuel substitute for petroleum
• Efficiency improvements result in significant fuel mileage increases and emissions reduction
• Faster fuel cell market penetration due to lower cost of fuel cell when linked to an energy storage system
• Electric drive systems in the full range of auto, truck, and non-road product offerings
• A potential future as mobile distributed resources link to electricity grid
• A cleaner environment as Electric Drive market share grows
• Load leveling
Source: EPRI
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Full Fuel Cycle Efficiency Comparison
0.31–0.50
0.29–0.472116 Btu/mile
1631 – 2185 miles
Per Barrel
Conventional
1231 milesPer Barrel
4115 Btu/mile0.84
Plug-in Hybrid
1.0
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Hybrid Vehicle Efficiency
15-20% 90-95%95%
85-95%85-90%
Gas tank Engine Transmission Driveline
MotorBattery
Gasoline: 13-18% Efficient
Electric: 62-77% Efficient
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1,091
4,535
788
3,277
1,109
456
1,897
2,187
174
722
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
WTW
Ene
rgy
Use
(Btu
/mi)
Conventional Vehicle Power Assist HEV Plug-in HEV 20 Plug-in HEV 60
Vehicle Configuration
Tank-to-Wheels Energy Petroleum
Well-to-Tank Energy Petroleum
Well-to-Wheels Electricity -- U.S.Average Generation Mix
Well-to-Wheels Energy Use— Midsize Sedan
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Petroleum Reduction
Compact Sedan
Midsize Sedan
Midsize SUV
Fullsize SUV
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900A
nnua
l Gas
olin
e C
onsu
mpt
ion
(gal
lons
)Conventional Vehicle"No-Plug" HybridPlug-in HEV, 20 mile EV rangePlug-in HEV, 60 mile EV range
Up to 85% reduction in gasoline use and trips to gas station (HEV60).
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“Electrifying America’s Transportation:A Value Proposition for Electric Drive Vehicles”
Net Economic Benefits
Billion $/year (2002 $)
Oil Use - 4 M bbl/dayGDP Impact + $ 38 B/yearEnvironmental + $ 9 B/yearLabor + 440,000 Jobs/yr
• Assumes by 2025
- Half of all cars are Hybrids
- Half of those are plug-in Hybrids
• Based on DOE – EIA projections for energy use
A study by Professor James A. Weinbrake, James Madison University, 2002
Sponsored by EPRI’s Technology Roadmap Project
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Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) Comparison
Plug-in HEVs:– reduce emissions, energy use, CO2, and
petroleum consumption more than power assist HEVs
– yield greater benefits as range increases
• All HEVs can be expected to cost more than CVs
• Even at significantly higher capital costs, plug-in HEVs can succeed in the market
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2) Bioenergy
Biomass as transport fuel and/or grid power
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Bioenergy Today
Commercial & Residential
16.8%
Industrial 67.5%
Transportation4%
Electric Utilities11.6%
Biomass2.9%
Other Renewable
3.8%
Petroleum products40%Other
0%
Coal22%
Nuclear8%
Natural Gas23%
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USESFuels: Ethanol Renewable Diesel HydrogenPower: Electricity HeatChemicals Plastics Solvents Chemical Intermediates Phenolics Adhesives Furfural Fatty acids Acetic Acid Carbon black Paints Dyes, Pigments, and Inks Detergents Etc.
Food and Feed
Bio-gas
Synthesis Gas
Sugars and Lignin
Bio-Oil
Carbon-RichChains
Plant Products
Hydrolysis
Acids, enzymesGasification
High heat, low oxygen
Digestion
Bacteria
Pyrolysis
Catalysis, heat, pressure
Extraction
Mechanical, chemicalSeparation
Mechanical, chemical
Feedstock production,collection, handling & preparation
Biorefinery: Feedstock to any Product
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Biomass Resources: Many regional options
Evolution from:• Corn ethanol• Biodiesel
Toward:• Cellulosic
ethanol:- Ag. residues,
wood waste, native grass.
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Ethanol and E85• Ethanol is a biofuel alternative to gasoline
– Contains 35% oxygen, burns cleaner than gasoline– Highly biodegradable, less problems from leaks
• E10 is 10% ethanol and 90% unleaded gasoline– Used in 46% of US, especially in winter to cut smog– Used to replace MTBE as octane booster
• E85 is 85% ethanol and 15% unleaded gasoline– Pricing attractive vs. unleaded gas
• Land and energy requirements limit corn ethanol to a transition fuel
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Other Options for Ethanol Production• 2004 global production 10 billion gallons• 38% produced in Brazil using 4.5% of crop land• Mass produced by fermentation of starch or sugar• Crop yields gallons/acre
– Corn 370– Sugar Cane 662– Sugar Beet 714– Poplar hybrid 1000 (UM Duluth)– Switchgrass 1150– Miscanthus 1500
• Can be produced from algae – (UM Twin Cities)
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Why Evolve to Cellulosic Ethanol?
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Biodiesel• Biodiesel is a diesel equivalent fuel derived from a
biological source such as vegetable oil• Biodegradable, non-toxic, produces 60% less CO2
emissions than petroleum based diesel• Soybean and rapeseed oil are used for 90% of fuel • Waste vegetable oil works • Global production of vegetable oil and animal fat are
not yet sufficient to replace fossil fuel use.• Corn 18 gal/acre• Soybean 48 gal/acre• Rapeseed 127 gal/acre
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How many miles/acre can we achieve?
Cellulosic ethanol has “good” potential for transportation fuel supply over the next 20-30 years
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BioEnergy—S&T Challenges• Feedstock production and collection
– Plant growth and response to stress (and on marginal lands); – Higher productivity at lower input (water, fertilizer, etc.)– Production of certain components and/or new components – Functional genomics; biochemistry; physiology; cellular control mechanisms;
respiration; photosynthesis, metabolism, nutrient use, disease response• Biochemical pathways
– Biocatalysis: enzyme function and regulation; enzyme engineering; catalyst reaction rates and specificity
• Thermochemical pathways– Product-selective thermal cracking of biomass; CFD modeling
• Bioproducts– New and novel monomers and polymers; – Biomass composites; adhesion/surface science
• Combustion– NOx chemistry; CFD modeling
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3) Wind and Solar
for electricity and hydrogen production
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Wind and Solar Resources Potential is large, particularly in the Western U.S.
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Solar EnergySolar Energy
• Price of electricity from grid-connected PV systems are ~20¢/kWh. (Down from ~$2.00/kWh in 1980)
• Nine parabolic trough plants with a total rated capacity of 354 MW have operated since 1985, with demonstrated system costs of 12 to 14¢/kWh.
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ROWEuropeJapanU.S.PV Cost
PV C
ost,
Cen
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Wh
MW
s Shipped
PV Costs and ShipmentsSource for market data: Paul Maycock, PV News, Volume 24, No. 2 February 2005
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Example: Solar
This solar powered water electrolysis hydrogenproduction and fueling station at Honda R&D Americas, Inc., Los Angeles Center in Torrance, California, is an example of PV-based hydrogen production for vehicle use(courtesy of Honda R&D Co., Ltd.).
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Solar Energy—S&T Challenges• Photovoltaics:
– Improve understanding of materials/growth/characterization and devices, esp. of CIGS, CdTe and Multi-junction thin films—interface chemistry, physics, defects, etc.
– Innovative encapsulants – Transparent conducting oxides– Improved Computational methods– Quantum Dot cells, intermediate-band cells
• Concentrating Solar Power: – Stable, high temperature heat transfer and thermal storage materials, with low vapor pressure, low
freezing points– Stable, high temperature, high performance selective surfaces– High performance reflectors
• Fuels:– High-temperature thermochemical cycles for CSP; Improved catalysts– PhotoElectrochemical redox couples with better band-edge matching– Electrolysis– PhotoBiological
• Low Temperature Solar Thermal: – New polymers that can withstand UV, hi/lo temperatures, and high pressures.
• Cross-cutting Areas:– Power electronics—wide-band gap materials; Reliable capacitors– Energy Storage
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UNIDO-ICHETUNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION
INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR HYDROGEN ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES
www.unido-ichet.org/ichet.org/ichet.php
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Thermal Energy Contents of Various Fuels
Bottom-Line: On a per pound basis, hydrogen contains about 3 times more energy than any fossil fuel; however, with its low mass density, it has high storage costs based on today’s technology.
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Methods to Generate Hydrogen• Electrolysis• Cracking natural gas– short-term solution• Nuclear• Microbes• Reforming biomass/waste• Wind – renewable• Solar – renewable
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Challenges for Hydrogen• Storage
– Containers outweigh content• DOE goal is hydrogen 6% by weight
(demo of 8% underway)• Distribution
– Need for both retrofit of existing (~ 38-50%) gas pipelines and construction of new ones
– Truck transport is limited to a few hundred miles.
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Long-Term Clean Alternatives to Carrying H2 in Your Car Tank
• Hydrogen Carriers – proven tested fuels that easily release hydrogen for use on-board a car– Methanol, our best hope (next slide)– Ammonia & other carbon-free fuels (but chicken&egg
problem again)
• Electric Cars – Cleanest, most efficient, but needs R&D; can’t yet beat C; new batteries in lab exciting, but not yet… PLUG-IN HYBRIDS COULD GET US THERE.
• Thermal Batteries (Long-term option)
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04/22/23 66
…The Future is Bright…
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Change
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Rule of three
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Innovation and Progress...
“The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.”
George Bernard Shaw (1856 - 1950)
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Transportation Policy
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Shifting Opinions: Raise Gas Tax
0
2
4
6
8S&T
Public Acceptance
Environmental Policy
Economics
TodayFuture
Future = 2020
• Federal gas tax =18.4cents/gal.
• State gas taxes– Low is Alaska at 8
cents/gal.– MN, Wash DC are
20 cents/gal.– High is Wisconsin
at 32.1 cents/gal.
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Shifting Opinions: Hybrid Vehicles
0
2
4
6
8S&T
Public Acceptance
Environmental Policy
Economics TodayFuture
Future = 2020
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Aggregate Stakeholder Perceptions
-5-4-3-2-1012345
-5 0 5
Reliable
Cle
an
-5-4-3-2-1012345
-5 0 5
Private Good
Publ
ic G
ood
-5-4-3-2-1012345
-5 0 5
Gov. Subsidies
Free
Mar
ket
-5-4-3-2-1012345
-5 0 5
Costs
Ben
efits
-5-4-3-2-1012345
-5 0 5
Good Policy
Goo
d Po
litic
s
-5-4-3-2-1012345
-5 0 5
Do
Acc
ompl
ish
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Hybrid Vehicles
• Best State Incentives:– Utah / Colorado: Up to $4,713 in tax credits
• Allow Single-Person Hybrid to use HOV lanes– Vs Minnesota: No Incentives
• Best Use for Mass Transit– N.Y. Upgrading Bus fleet to Hybrid Diesel-Electric
• Use 1/3 less fuel than conventional busses• Reduced emissions: : 90 percent less particulate matter, 40
percent fewer oxides of nitrogen, and 30 percent fewer greenhouse gases.
• Run quieter, reducing noise pollution– vs. Minnesota: No Plans for Hybrid Mass Transit and 2004 Transportation Plan focuses on Buses as the centerpiece of Metro Region Mass transit for the next 25 years (through 2030).
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Key Points
• Energy efficiency (EE) and demand response (DR) can be cost-effective alternatives to adding new capacity
• Programmatic approaches to EE and DR have been successful, but have only “scratched-the-surface” of what’s possible
• Huge opportunity to utilize technology, innovation, and markets to drive EE, DR, and overall electricity utilization
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My Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle
• Convenient Re-charging… Anytime and Anywhere– Vehicle meter “handshakes” with network-connected “socket” to
identify vehicle and billing information– Re-charges with kWh measured by vehicle meter– Electronic billing transaction debits vehicle owner’s account and
credits “socket” owner’s account
• Distributed Energy Storage– Sell stored battery energy to the grid– Utilize stored battery energy for short-term back-up power
• Distributed Generation– Utilize internal combustion engine for longer-term backup power
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Electric Vehicle Inductive Charger
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My Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle• Convenient Re-charging… Anytime and Anywhere
– Vehicle meter “handshakes” with network-connected “socket” to identify vehicle and billing information
– Re-charges with kWh measured by vehicle meter– Electronic billing transaction debits vehicle owner’s account and credits
“socket” owner’s account
• Distributed Energy Storage– Sell stored battery energy to the grid– Utilize stored battery energy for short-term back-up power
• Distributed Generation– Utilize internal combustion engine for longer-term backup power
Consumers will demand these conveniences…will the Electricity Efficiency Infrastructure be ready?
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Challenge & Opportunity Three Primary Motivations• Energy Security: Moderate consumption of petroleum-based
transportation fuels• Global Warming: Reduce CO2 emissions• Environment: Attain air quality targets in critical areas.
Reduce well-to-wheels criteria emissions
Transportation Sustainability – Four Options (for the Vehicle)• Energy efficiency improvements• Biofuels• Electricity (Renewable or near-zero emitting)• Hydrogen (Also renewable or near-zero emitting)
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We have a bright future if we challenge the best minds and marshal their talents…
• Albert Einstein once said that “compounded interest is the most powerful force in the universe”: – 250 year reserves of coal will mean 40 years at 2% growth rate per year.
• Renewable resources:– Solar - Wind -Geothermal– Ocean/Wave energy -- Waste to energy– Agricultural, incl. soy/corn, sugar (e.g., Brazil)
• Biodiessel, cellulosic, ethanol, methanol, biomass– Hydrogen from renewables
• will it require more energy to produce?
• Need new technologies analogous to putting the “man on the moon,” with the urgency of the Manhattan Project,
• Broad range of R&D including end-use and system efficiency,• What will the overall, integrated system/infrastructure look like?
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people
planet
prosperity
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Discussion and the Road Ahead:
• What are the key energy and security pivotal technologies?– What is your vision for the future– what
will it be like or how will it perform in 2020?
– What are the energy innovation gaps to achieve your vision?
– What pivotal technologies and policies are needed to address these?
– If you are given $10B to invest, 15-year time horizon, with no more than 10% in any given option, what pivotal energy technologies do you choose and why?
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May others benefit from your lead.
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Contact Information
Massoud Amin: [email protected] Keenan: [email protected] Nordstrom: [email protected]
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Alternative Selection: Raise Gas Tax
Good PolicyGood PolicyGo
od P
oliti
csGo
od P
oliti
csDo SomethingDo Something
Acco
mpl
ish S
omet
hing
Acco
mpl
ish S
omet
hing
CostsCosts
Bene
fits
Bene
fits
Raise Gas Tax
Yes NoYes
No
Yes NoYes
No
Raise Gas TaxLow High
High
Low Raise Gas Tax
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Alternative Selection: Incentives for Hybrid VehiclesGood PolicyGood Policy
Good
Pol
itics
Good
Pol
itics
Do SomethingDo Something
Acco
mpl
ish S
omet
hing
Acco
mpl
ish S
omet
hing
CostsCosts
Bene
fits
Bene
fits
Hybrid Incentives
Yes NoYes
No
Yes NoYes
No
Hybrid IncentivesLow High
High
Low Hybrid Incentives
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Alternative Selection: Light Rail ExpansionGood PolicyGood Policy Do SomethingDo Something
Good
Pol
itics
Good
Pol
itics
Acco
mpl
ish S
omet
hing
Acco
mpl
ish S
omet
hing
CostsCosts
Bene
fits
Bene
fitsLight Rail Expansion
Yes NoYes
No
Yes NoYes
No
Light Rail ExpansionLow High
High
Low Light Rail Expansion
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Baldwin’s Time Constants
• Political consensus building ~ 3-20+ years• Technical R&D ~10+ • Production model ~ 4+ • Financial ~ 2++ • Market penetration ~10++ • Capital stock turnover
– Cars ~ 15 – Appliances ~ 10-20– Industrial Equipment ~ 10-30/40+– Power plants ~ 40+ – Buildings ~ 80 – Urban form ~100’s
• Lifetime of Greenhouse Gases ~100’s-1000’s• Reversal of Land Use Change ~100’s• Reversal of Extinctions Never