LBG/LB 1

Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J.-P.Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25-27 October 2004

New developments on air pollution effects to ecosystems:

ozone and acidification

Workshop on review and Assessment of European Air Pollution Policies, Gothenburg, 25-27 October 2004

Jean-Paul HettelinghCLRTAP-Working Group on Effects

ICP M&M Coordination Center for Effects,taking note of JEG, ICP-V, ICP-IM, ICP-F, ICP-W, ICP-M.

LBG/LB 2

Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J.-P.Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25-27 October 2004

Ozone

LBG/LB 3

Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J.-P.Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25-27 October 2004

OzoneFindings from long term monitoring

• Ozone injury on vegetation is widespread in Europe and ozone reduces the growth of sensitive plant species in particular in central and southern Europe

• Leaf injury has been recorded on ozone-sensitive species at 85% of the ICP-V sites, every year and several times per year, and on 20 horti and agricultural commercial crop in the growing season.

• Ozone causes forest tree growth reduction

LBG/LB 4

Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J.-P.Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25-27 October 2004

• AOT40 for crops and natural vegetation: Adverse effects when the Ozone concentration Accumulated over a Threshold of 40 ppb (AOT40) exceeds 3 ppm h

• AOT40 for forests: Growth reduction when the AOT40 exceeds 5 ppm h or AOT30 exceeds 9 ppm h.

Key indicators for Ozonein RAINS policy support

LBG/LB 5

Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J.-P.Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25-27 October 2004

Excess of AOT40 for forests (5 ppm h).

2000 2010 2020

Source: CIAM; EMEP Eulerian model; 1999 & 2003 meteo.

LBG/LB 6

Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J.-P.Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25-27 October 2004

Ozone effect monitoring: New developments

• Biology: New stomatal flux-based exposure indices to account for biological processes involving ozone uptake,

• Meteorology: Taking account of humidity and other climatic conditions (light, temperature)

• Policy relevance: – Assessment of ecosystem area specific risk of

ozone damage– Multiple impact assessment including e.g.trade off

between air pollution and climate change effects.

LBG/LB 7

Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J.-P.Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25-27 October 2004

Acidification

LBG/LB 8

Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J.-P.Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25-27 October 2004

Average Accumulated Exceedance of critical load of acidity in 2000

EMEP Lagrangian(shown on 50x50 grid)

EMEP Unified

Exceedance caused by S and N deposition

LBG/LB 9

Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J.-P.Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25-27 October 2004

Acidity Exceedance in 2010:Sulphur still important !

By S deposition alone By S + NOx deposition

LBG/LB 10

Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J.-P.Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25-27 October 2004

Acidity Exceedance:continued …2010

By S + NH3 deposition By total N deposition

LBG/LB 11

Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J.-P.Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25-27 October 2004

Nutrient Nitrogen

LBG/LB 12

Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J.-P.Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25-27 October 2004

Average Accumulated Exceedance of critical load of nutrient N in 2000

EMEP Lagrangian(shown on 50x50 grid)

EMEP Unified

LBG/LB 13

Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J.-P.Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25-27 October 2004

73.034.777.735.1ecosystem specific dep.

59.228.564.929.2grid average deposition

Unified Model & 2004 CLs

49.023.156.024.52004 critical loads

54.424.660.726.01998 critical loads

Lagrangian model

EU25EuropeEU25Europe

20102000

% eco-area with CLO-nutrient nitrogen exceeded in 2000 and 2010

LBG/LB 14

Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J.-P.Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25-27 October 2004

Nutrient nitrogen exceedance:continued …2010

By NOx deposition By NH3 deposition

LBG/LB 15

Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J.-P.Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25-27 October 2004

Exceedance…meaning ?

LBG/LB 16

Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J.-P.Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25-27 October 2004

BiologyCritical response

Soilcritical limit

Depositioncritical load

New development: dynamic modelling

LBG/LB 17

Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J.-P.Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25-27 October 2004

Nitrogen supply

Source: Vaclav Smill (1996) Cycles of Life, Scientific American Library, p. 188; Based on J.D Ader (1993) in: Donnell and Picket, Springer Verlag.

LBG/LB 18

Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J.-P.Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25-27 October 2004

CO2 N dep S dep

Biomass

Soil

Temperature --

-

+

+

+

Eutrophication and Carbon sequestration:unraveling the dynamics of a trade-off issue…

C/N

-

-+/-

[O3]

-

A new generationof multiple impact monitoring andassessment

LBG/LB 19

Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J.-P.Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25-27 October 2004

Conclusions

• Ozone continues to stress ecosystems• New knowledge on Ozone DR-relations• Acidification still puts ecosystems at risk• Ammonia most important, but sulphur not over• Eutrophication an increasing problem• Can we trade off N eutrophication for C sequestration ?• More knowledge required of system dynamics of ecosystem

impacts and ozone, acidification, eutrophication and climate change

• Long term monitoring indispensable to support a new generation of the multiple effect assessment methodology.

LBG/LB 20

Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J.-P.Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25-27 October 2004

www.rivm.nl/cce

j.p.hettelingh@rivm.nl