navajo reservoir operations crfs technical committee november 8 , 2011 fall technical meeting
DESCRIPTION
Navajo Reservoir Operations CRFS Technical Committee November 8 , 2011 Fall Technical Meeting. Review of Water Year 2011 Operations. AVAILABLE WATER (April) PATH Min Prob : 376,960 af #2 Most Prob : 500,429 af #2 - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Navajo Reservoir OperationsCRFS Technical CommitteeNovember 8, 2011Fall Technical Meeting
598559905995600060056010601560206025603060356040604560506055606060656070607560806085
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Daily
WS
Elev
atio
n (f
t)
Daily
Inflo
w, R
elea
se &
Cha
nge-
in-S
tora
ge (c
fs)
WY 2011
NAVAJO RESERVOIR OPERATIONS
Change-in-Storage (cfs) Total Release (cfs) Inflow (cfs) River Release (cfs) WS Elevation
1
5
14
4
1312
109
11
8
3
27
6
AVAILABLE WATER (April) PATHMin Prob: 376,960 af #2Most Prob: 500,429 af #2Max Prob: 643,061 af #2
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
5-Jun 6-Jun 7-Jun 8-Jun 9-Jun 10-Jun 11-Jun 12-Jun 13-Jun 14-Jun 15-Jun 16-Jun 17-Jun
End
of D
ay N
avaj
o Da
m R
elea
sein
Cub
ic F
eet p
er S
econ
d (C
FS)
5-Jun 6-Jun 7-Jun 8-Jun 9-Jun 10-Jun 11-Jun 12-Jun 13-Jun 14-Jun 15-Jun 16-Jun 17-Jun
Release (CFS) 500 2000 3200 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 3400 2200 500
Navajo Reservoir 2011 Spring Peak Release Schedule(Final)
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7000
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9000
100005/
1
5/15
5/29
6/12
6/26
7/10
Mea
n Dai
ly F
low
s (C
FS)
USGS Mean Daily Streamflows - San Juan and Animas River Stations
San Juan at Farmington San Juan at Shiprock San Juan at Four Corners San Juan at BluffAnimas@Farmington San Juan at Archuleta (Navajo) 7-Day Moving Mean
Chasing the Target Baseflow• Temporary increases to 650 cfs were required in mid
April and early May due to late runoff and dry conditions • Base releases remained at 500 cfs until August 9th
• Late runoff kept the river within Target Base Flow range without additional releases later than usual
• Increased release to 800 cfs on August 9th, up to 900 cfs on August 17th
• Returned to 500 cfs base release on October 6th.• Reduced release to 350 cfs for trout habitat
improvements (should be complete by December)
0
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10000
4/1/2011 5/1/2011 6/1/2011 7/1/2011 8/1/2011 9/1/2011
Mea
n Da
ily P
rovi
siona
l Str
eam
flow
s (C
FS)
USGS Mean Daily Streamflow San Juan River Stations
SJ Farmington SJ Shiprock SJ Four Corners SJ Bluff Animas @ Farmington SJ Archuleta 7-Day Moving Mean
Navajo Current Conditions(as of 11/7/2011)
Elevation = 6058.4 (97% of Average)Storage = 1,327,727 af (78% Full)Inflow = 485 cfsRelease = 350 cfsNIIP = 6 cfs (Not Diverting)San Juan-Chama Diversion = 16 cfs
Western Colorado Area Office Contact:
Ryan Christianson970-385-6590, [email protected]
Forecasting Challenges
• Over forecasting in the winter/early spring• Animas @ Farmington forecast point
0
100,000
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500,000
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1,000,000
1,100,000
1,200,000
1,300,000
1,400,000
MidD
ec
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MidJan
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MidFeb
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ar
Apr
MidA
pr
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MidM
ay
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MidJun
Jul
MidJul
Apr
-Jul
Out
look
Forecast Date
WY2011 CBRFC - Navajo Reservoir Most, Max and Min Inflow Forecasts (acre-feet)
Max Most Min 30 Yr Avg Inf low 2011 Observed Linear (Most)
Actual Inflow – 576,275 af (78% of Average)
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1,000,000
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1,400,000
MidD
ec
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MidFeb
Mar
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ar
Apr
MidA
pr
May
MidM
ay
Jun
MidJun
Jul
MidJul
Apr
-Jul
Out
look
Forecast Date
WY2010 CBRFC - Navajo Reservoir Most, Max and Min Inflow Forecasts (acre-feet)
Max Most Min
0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000900,000
1,000,0001,100,0001,200,0001,300,0001,400,0001,500,0001,600,000
MidD
ec
Jan
MidJan
Feb
MidFeb
Mar
MidM
ar
Apr
MidA
pr
May
MidM
ay
Jun
MidJun
Jul
MidJul
Apr
-Jul
Out
look
Forecast Date
WY2009 CBRFC - Navajo Reservoir Most, Max and Min Inflow Forecasts (acre-feet)
Max Most Min 30 Yr Avg Inflow Observed Linear (Most)
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Jan MidJan Feb MidFeb Mar MidMar Apr MidApr May MidMay Jun MidJun Jul MidJul
Apr-J
ul O
utlo
ok
Forecast Date
2007 CBRFC - Navajo Reservoir Most, Maximum and Minimum Modified Unregulated Inflow Forecasts (ac-ft)
Max MostMin 30-Yr Avg
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
MidDec Jan MidJan Feb MidFeb Mar MidMar Apr MidApr May MidMay Jun MidJun Jul MidJul
Apr
-Jul
Out
look
Forecast Date
2008 CBRFC - Navajo Reservoir Most, Maximum and Minimum Modified Unregulated Inflow Forecasts (ac-ft)
Max Most Min 30-Yr Avg Observed Linear (Most)