navajo reservoir operations crfs technical committee november 16, 2010 fall technical meeting
DESCRIPTION
Navajo Reservoir Operations CRFS Technical Committee November 16, 2010 Fall Technical Meeting. San Juan River. Critical Habitat. Gaging Stations. Review of Water Year 2010 Operations. Chasing the Target Baseflow. Base releases remained at 500 cfs until June 24 th - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
5985
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-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Dai
ly W
S E
leva
tio
n (
ft)
Dai
ly In
flo
w, R
elea
se &
Ch
ang
e-in
-Sto
rag
e (c
fs)
Water Year 2010
NAVAJO RESERVOIR OPERATIONS
Change-in-Storage (cfs) Total Release (cfs) Inflow (cfs) River Release (cfs) WS Elevation
Chasing the Target Baseflow
• Base releases remained at 500 cfs until June 24th
• Tributary inflow + Navajo Releases keep the river within Target Base Flow range
• Increased release to 850 cfs on June 24th, up to 1100 cfs on July 16th
• Release returned to 500 cfs on October 19th, and should remain unchanged until next spring
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500
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10/1/2009 12/1/2009 2/1/2010 4/1/2010 6/1/2010 8/1/2010
Mea
n D
aily
Pro
visi
onal
Str
eam
flow
s (C
FS)
USGS Mean Daily Streamflow San Juan River Stations
SJ Archuleta SJ Farmington SJ Shiprock SJ Four Corners SJ Bluff Animas @ Farmington 7-Day Moving Mean
Navajo Current Conditions(as of 11/9/2010)
Elevation = 6063.2 (102% of Average)
Storage = 1,388,376 af (82% Full)
Inflow = 250 cfs
Release = 500 cfs
NIIP = Not Diverting
San Juan-Chama Diversion = Not Diverting
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6085
-6,000
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-3,000
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-1,000
0
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2,000
Oct Nov
Dai
ly W
S E
leva
tio
n (
ft)
Dai
ly In
flo
w, R
elea
se &
Ch
ang
e-in
-Sto
rag
e (c
fs)
Water Year 2011
NAVAJO RESERVOIR OPERATIONS
Change-in-Storage (cfs) Total Release (cfs) Inflow (cfs) River Release (cfs) WS Elevation
Update SNOTEL!!!
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug
Sno
w W
ate
r Eq
uiv
ale
nt
(In
che
s)Navajo Reservoir SNOTEL SWE from 2001-2011
2001
2002
2003
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2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Average
0.0
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1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug
Sno
w W
ate
r Eq
uiv
ale
nt
(In
che
s)
Animas @ Durango SNOTEL SWE from 2001-2011
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Average
2011 Forecasted April-July Inflow& Spring Peak Release
Most Probable (50% Ex.) - 685,000 af (91% of Avg)Peak Release = 172,000 af (2 weeks@ 5000 cfs)
Minimum Probable (90% Ex.) - 233,170 af (31% of Avg)Peak Release = 118,000 af (1 week@5000 cfs – if perturbation yr)
Maximum Probable (10% Ex.) - 1,171,470 af (155% Avg)Peak Release = 926,000 af (Full Hydrograph+ – 73 days @ 5000 cfs, 33 days @ 4000 cfs)
Peak Release centered over Animas at Farmington peakBase release of 500 cfs for remainder of water year (~362K af)
Put Hydrographs and downstream flow projection data here from 2011
Navajo Release Scenarios
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/8
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/22
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/5
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/19
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/31
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Flo
ws (C
FS
)San Juan Flows based on Most Probable Forecasts for Navajo and the Animas River &
Corresponding Navajo Operations based on that forecast
San Juan at Farmington San Juan at Shiprock San Juan at Four Corners San Juan at Bluf f San Juan at Archuleta 7DMM
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/8
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/22
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/5
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/19
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/31
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6
9/9
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Flo
ws (C
FS
) San Juan Flows based on Minimum Probable Forecasts for Navajo and the Animas River & Corresponding Navajo Operations based on that forecast
San Juan at Farmington San Juan at Shiprock San Juan at Four Corners San Juan at Bluf f San Juan at Archuleta 7DMM
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9/2
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/8
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/22
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/5
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/19
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/3
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/17
12
/31
1/1
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1/2
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2/1
1
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3/1
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Flo
ws (C
FS
)
San Juan Flows based on Maximum Probable Forecasts for Navajo and the Animas River & Corresponding Navajo Operations based on that forecast
San Juan at Farmington San Juan at Shiprock San Juan at Four Corners San Juan at Bluf f San Juan at Archuleta 7DMM
WY2011 Estimated Inflows into Lake Powell from the San Juan
(based on SJ @ Bluff modeled flows)
Most Probable (50% Ex.) - 1,022,000 acre-feet(73% of Average WY1981-2010)
Minimum Probable (90% Ex.) - 520,000 acre-feet(37% of Average WY1981-2010)
Maximum Probable (10% Ex.) - 2,845,654 acre-feet(202% of Average WY1981-2010)
Western Colorado Area Office Contacts:
Pat Page970-385-6560, [email protected]
Ryan Christianson970-385-6590, [email protected]