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Drought conditions are expected to improve but still remain over southeast and east-central Utah as well as over southwest and west-central Colorado. Finally, the drought is expected to persist over southeast Colorado and southwestern Kansas.

●Forecast tools indicate enhanced ridging setting up over the Gulf of Alaska and downstream troughing into the central CONUS into January. This pattern favors the push in the odds towards colder than normal temperatures across the northern CONUS. Equal chances are forecast for the southern sections of Central Region, where uncertainty is higher in the southern extent of the cold.

● Above normal precipitation is favored over the southeastern CONUS. However, guidance shows little signal for much of Central Region. Therefore, equal chances for above, below, or near normal precipitation is forecast.

Jan 2020 Temperature &

Precipitation Outlooks

Important

Messages:

ENSO-Neutral Continues

ENSO-neutral continues to be favored during the Northern Hemisphere winter (~70% chance), continuing with a ~65% chance through spring 2020.

While unlikely, there remains a low chance (25-30%) for weak El Niño conditions to emerge during the winter and spring months.

Jan through Mar

Temperature and

Precipitation Outlooks

● Potential exists for the January large scale pattern to persist, thus the odds continue to favor colder than normal temperatures over the north central CONUS. Equal chances are forecast for the southern sections of Central Region, and above normal temperatures are favored in parts of Colorado.

● Guidance continues to support above normal precipitation from the Intermountain West, across much of the Northern Rockies and through the Midwest.

Seasonal Drought Outlook

Jan 2020 – Mar 2020Thursday, November 21, 2019 10:10 PM

National Weather ServiceCentral Region Climate Outlook

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Jan 2020 – Mar 2020Thursday, November 21, 2019 10:09 PM

National Weather ServiceCentral Region Climate Outlook

There is a 70% chance that ENSO-neutral conditions will persist this winter. This forecast is supported by dynamic model average through the late fall and winter. The probability for continued ENSO-neutral conditions remains as high as 65% through spring season 2020. There is a 25-30% chance for El Niño conditions emerging into the spring.

IRI/CPC Probabilistic ENSO

Forecast/PlumesENSO Status: ENSO Neutral

News from Climate.govLatest ENSO Blog from Climate.govSea Surface Temperatures from the Climate Prediction CenterLatest ENSO Discussion from the Climate Prediction CenterDrought Information from the US Drought MonitorInteractive GIS Mapping from NCEI (Anomalies/Rankings) Local Climate Analysis Tool (LCAT) – Account registration requiredNWS Forecast Maps from Western Region

Useful Links/Info:

Other Teleconnection EffectsMJO activity is forecast to weaken briefly over the Maritime Continent during the last week of December due to destructive interference with the ongoing positive phase of Indian Ocean Dipole. However, it is likely to become active again in early January as it emerges in the western Pacific. This could play a role in favoring colder conditions over parts of the region mid to late in January.

The winter season upper level pattern over North America can favor enhancedtroughing into the north central CONUS. This particular pattern would favorcolder conditions across the northern CONUS and warm and wet conditions inthe southeast.It is always important to remember that seasonal weather patterns are causedby a myriad of factors. Not all ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) Neutralwinters produced weather patterns as shown above. However, forecast toolsdo suggest the possibility of such a pattern evolving this winter. The importantkey to this pattern is for enhanced upper level ridging to develop and remainpersistent in or near the Gulf of Alaska region. This would essentially act tofunnel the colder air southward through Canada and into the northern CONUS.

Inputs into the Outlooks