National Center for Statistics & Analysis

1

Past, Present and FutureTraffic Safety Data Trends

Romell CooksRegional Administrator

May 11, 2010

National Center for Statistics & Analysis

2

Changes in the Last 10 Years(1998-2008)

Changes in the Last 10 Years(1998-2008)

Series1

-50.0%

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

Pop

ulat

ion

Lice

nsed

D

river

s

Reg

iste

red

Veh

icle

s

VM

T

Fat

aliti

es

Inju

ries

National Center for Statistics & Analysis

3

Overview – Fatalities and Fatality Rates Prior Periods of Significant Declines

Overview – Fatalities and Fatality Rates Prior Periods of Significant Declines

1901190219031904190519061907190819091910191119121913191419151916191719181919192019211922192319241925192619271928192919301931193219331934193519361937193819391940194119421943194419451946194719481949195019511952195319541955195619571958195919601961196219631964196519661967196819691970197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009*0

6,000

12,000

18,000

24,000

30,000

36,000

42,000

48,000

54,000

60,000

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

Fa

talit

ies

Fa

talit

y R

ate

*Projected Fatalities and Fatality Rate

National Center for Statistics & Analysis

4

15th Consecutive Quarter of Declines 15th Consecutive Quarter of Declines

1976

1976

1977

1978

1979

1979

1980

1981

1982

1982

1983

1984

1985

1985

1986

1987

1988

1988

1989

1990

1991

1991

1992

1993

1994

1994

1995

1996

1997

1997

1998

1999

2000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2003

2004

2005

2006

2006

2007

2008

2009

2009

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Percentage Change in Fatalities in Every Quarter as Compared to the Fatalities in the Same Quarter During the Previous Year

% D

ec

line

s

1981 Q2 to 1983 Q4(11 Quarters)

1990 Q4 to 1993 Q2(11 Quarters)

2006 Q2 to 2009 Q4(15 Quarters, to date)

National Center for Statistics & Analysis

5

40 Years of Highway Safety: The trend of the Fatality Rate per 100 Million VMT

40 Years of Highway Safety: The trend of the Fatality Rate per 100 Million VMT

National Center for Statistics & Analysis

6

Overview of 2005-2008 Declines by Categories of Interest

Overview of 2005-2008 Declines by Categories of Interest

Series1

-35.0%

-30.0%

-25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

Kid

s (

Under

16)

Multi-V

ehic

le

Young D

river

Cra

shes

Speedin

g-r

e-

late

d

Sin

gle

-Vehic

le

Alc

ohol_

impair

ed

Larg

e T

ruck

Pedestr

ians

Bic

ycls

its

Moto

rcyclis

ts

Overall De-cline=14.4%

VMT Decline=0.5%

National Center for Statistics & Analysis

7

7 &

Und

er

8-15

16-2

0

21-2

4

25-3

4

35-4

4

45-6

4

65+

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

4%

6%

22%

12% 12%

18%

11%

14%

1%2%

13%11%

18%

14%

25%

14%

% of 2005-2008 Decline % of 2008 Fatalities

Fatalities and Fatality Changes (2005-2008)

by Age

Fatalities and Fatality Changes (2005-2008)

by Age

Occupant Fatalities

National Center for Statistics & Analysis

8

Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities in the U.S., 2005,2008

Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities in the U.S., 2005,2008

National Center for Statistics & Analysis

9

Challenges

• Potential near-term increases with economic revival

• U.S. Population continues to grow oldero Median Age projected to rise through 2050

• More diverse populationo Message and outreach challenges to diverse groups

• Increasing trend of motorcycle ridership• Increase belt use / booster seat use rates

National Center for Statistics & Analysis

10

Summary

• Declines across most areas• Most significant declines in younger population

o Childreno Young adults

• Challengeso Motorcyclist Fatalities, Bicyclists, Pedestrian Safetyo Single-vehicle crashes (Alcohol, Speeding)o Older Adults

• Distraction, Speeding