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NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS (Provisional Estimates of GDP, 2015-16 and

Final Estimates of GDP, 2014-15)

Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics Statistics and Informatics Division

Ministry of Planning

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS (Provisional Estimates of GDP, 2015-16 and Final Estimates of GDP, 2014-15)

May 2016

Published date: May 2016

This Publication Approved by Statistics and Informatics Division


National Accounting Wing

Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics

Statistics and Informatics Division, Ministry of Planning

Parishankhyan Bhaban

E-27/A, Agargaon, Dhaka

www.bbs.gov.bd

Foreword

National Accounts Statistics is an important annual publication of Bangladesh Bureau

of Statistics (BBS). It plays a very significant role in the evaluation and monitoring process of

overall performance of the macroeconomic scenario of the country. BBS publishes the

National Accounts Statistics regularly considering it to be a useful document for policymakers

and researchers/practitioners.

This publication intends to provide an insight on sector-wise economic performance

of the country through measuring selected core macro-economic indicators such as Gross

Domestic Product (GDP), Gross National Income (GNI), Gross Disposable Income (GDI),

Savings, Investment and Consumption. This publication focuses on the provisional estimates

of GDP and other national accounts aggregates for FY2016. It also provides the final

estimates of GDP for FY2015.

I am delighted to know that BBS is going to publish the 19th issue of the series. I

firmly believe that the policy planners, academics, researchers, students and other

stakeholders will find the publication as a useful source of information on wide ranges of

macro-economic indicators of the country.

I would like to convey my sincere thanks to Mr. Mohammad Abdul Wazed, Director

General, BBS and his colleagues for their untiring efforts in bringing out this publication.

May 2016

K M Mozammel Hoq

Secretary

Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh


Statistics and Informatics Division (SID)

K M Mozammel Hoq

Secretary

Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics

Statistics and Informatics Division


Mohammad Abdul Wazed

Director General

Preface

National Accounts Statistics is a regular annual publication of Bangladesh Bureau of

Statistics (BBS) since 1997. This is the 19th issue of the series. This publication reflects the

macro-economic situation and states sector-wise economic performance of Bangladesh. It

also acts as an instrument to monitor and evaluate macroeconomic stability of the country.

This publication inter alia states the provisional estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

and other national accounts aggregates for FY2016. The final estimates of GDP and other

related national accounts aggregates for FY 2015 have also been presented in this publication.

I express my sincere respect and gratitude to K M Mozammel Hoq, Secretary,

Statistics and Informatics Division (SID) for his continuous support and guidance towards

improvement of the publication. It is recognized that the relentless efforts of the officers of

National Accounting Wing have made possible this document. I would, therefore like to

place on record my heartfelt thanks to Mr. Abul Kalam Azad, Director, National Accounting

Wing and his colleagues for their sincere endeavors.

I strongly believe that this publication will be useful to the planners, policy makers

and researchers who have reason to be concerned with the overall macro-economic situation

of Bangladesh.

Any comments and suggestions from the stakeholders for further improvement of this

publication will be much appreciated.

May 2016

Mohammad Abdul Wazed (Additional Secretary) Director General

i

Key Indicators of National Accounts

Indicator 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16(p)

1. GDP at current market prices (billion Tk.) 11,989 13,437 15,158 17,296

2. GDP at constant market prices (billion Tk.) 7,299 7,741 8,249 8,831

3. GNI at current market prices (billion Tk.) 12,954 14,332 16,142 18,315

4. GNI at constant market prices (billion Tk.) 7,886 8,257 8,784 9,351

5. Per capita GDP at current market prices (Tk.) 78,009 86,266 96,004 108,172

6. Per capita GNI at current market prices (Tk.) 84,283 92,015 102,236 114,547

7. Per capita GDP at current market prices ( in US$) 976 1,110 1,236 1,384

8. Per capita GNI at current market prices ( in US$) 1,054 1,184 1,316 1,466

9. Per capita GDP at constant market prices (Tk.) 47,491 49,701 52,243 55,229

10. Per capita GNI at constant market prices (Tk.) 51,311 53,013 55,634 58,484

11. Growth rate of GDP at constant prices (%) 6.01 6.06 6.55 7.05

12. Sectoral growth rate of GDP at constant prices (%)

Agriculture 2.46 4.37 3.33 2.60

Industry 9.64 8.16 9.67 10.10

Services 5.51 5.62 5.80 6.70

13. Sectoral shares of GDP at constant prices (%)

Agriculture 16.78 16.50 16.00 15.33

Industry 29.00 29.55 30.42 31.28

Services 54.22 53.95 53.58 53.39

14. Consumption at current prices (billion Tk.) 9,347 10469 11799 13163

Private consumption (billion Tk.) 8,734 9751 10980 12144

Public consumption (billion Tk.) 613 717 819 1019

15. Investment at current prices (billion Tk.) 3,404 3840 4379 5081

Private investment (billion Tk.) 2,607 2960 3345 3768

Public investment (billion Tk.) 796 880 1034 1314

16. Domestic savings at current prices (billion Tk.) 2,642 2968 3359 4132

17. National savings at current prices (billion Tk.) 3,660 3927 4399 5242

18. Consumption as % of GDP 77.96 77.91 77.84 76.11

Private consumption 72.85 72.57 72.44 70.21

Public consumption 5.12 5.34 5.40 5.89

19. Investment as % of GDP 28.39 28.58 28.89 29.38

Private investment 21.75 22.03 22.07 21.78

Public investment 6.64 6.55 6.82 7.60

20. Domestic savings as % of GDP 22.04 22.09 22.16 23.89

21. National savings as % of GDP 30.53 29.23 29.02 30.31

22. Revenue receipt as % of GDP 11.65 11.66 10.78 12.05

Tax 9.36 9.69 9.28 10.54

Non-Tax 2.29 1.97 1.50 1.51

23. Total Government expenditure as % of GDP 15.79 16.09 15.81 17.06

Note: “p” denotes provisional estimates. Constant price base year: 2005-06 Contd.

ii

Key Indicators of National Accounts

Indicator 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16(p)

24. General economic level and performance

GDP per capita (US $) 976 1,110 1,236 1,384

GDP rate of growth (%) 6.01 6.06 6.55 7.05

25. Investment

Gross fixed capital formation / GDP 28.39 28.58 28.89 29.38

26. Savings

Savings / GDP 30.53 29.23 29.02 30.31

Savings / Gross fixed capital formation 107.53 102.27 100.46 103.17

27. Performance of government

Government budget deficit / GDP 3.70 3.99 4.66 4.67

Taxes / GDP 9.36 9.69 9.28 10.54

28. Foreign trade performance

Imports / GDP, import rate of growth 26.76 25.52 24.75 21.23

Exports / GDP, export rate of growth 19.54 18.99 17.34 16.27

(Exports + imports) / GDP 46.30 44.51 42.09 37.51

(Exports less imports) / GDP -7.22 -6.53 -7.41 -4.96

29. Balance of payments

Current external account balance / GDP 1.27 0.60 -0.55 1.46

(Exports less imports) / GDP -7.22 -6.53 -7.41 -4.96

30. Foreign exchange reserve (million US$) 15,315 21,508 25,025 27,139/a

31. Prices

Producer Price Index (PPI) (base : 1988-89) 328.06 341.79 343.52 353.33 /b

Consumer Price Index (CPI) (base : 2005-06) 181.73 195.08 207.58 223.35/c

Interest rate 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00

Foreign exchange rates (Taka per US$) 79.93 77.72 77.67 78.15/d

Note: /a January 2016, /b Third quarter (January-March, 2015-16 average, /c March 2016, /d Seven month (July-January,2015-16) average.

“p” denotes provisional estimates

Contents

Page

Key Indicators of National Accounts i

1. Provisional Estimates of GDP for FY2016 and Final Estimates of GDP

for FY2015

1

Provisional Estimates of GDP for FY2016 1

Final Estimates of GDP for FY2015 17

2. Provisional and Final Estimates of GDP by Expenditure Category 21

3. Inflation and Growth Rate 37

Inflation 37

GDP Annex Tables 41

4. Explanatory Notes 77

Concepts and data sources used in compiling GDP estimates 77

Statistical Annex Tables 81

Related Publications on National Accounts Statistics 89

1

11 Provisional Estimates of GDP for FY2016 and Final

Estimates of GDP for FY2015

Provisional Estimates of GDP in FY2015

Provisional estimates of GDP for FY2016 indicate an expansion of the economy, with a

growth of 7.05% in real term as compared to 6.55% (final estimate) in FY 2015.As

compared to FY2015, the higher GDP growth in FY2016 is mainly due to increase of growth

in respect of (i) Manufacturing, (ii) Electricity, Gas and Water Supply, (iii) Construction, (iv)

Wholesale and retail trade (iv) Public Administration and Defence (vi) Education and (vii)

Health and social works. Crops and horticulture, a sub-sector of the agriculture sector is

estimated to post a downward growth of 0.50% in FY2016 compared to 1.83% in FY2015.

However, the growth of large & medium scale manufacturing sector increased to 11.01% in

FY2016 as against 10.70% in the previous year.

The GDP growth rates at current and constant prices during the year from FY2006 to FY2016

are shown in the following graph.

The value of GDP at current market prices is provisionally estimated at Tk. 17,296 billion

which is about 14.10% higher than that of FY2015. GDP at constant market prices is

2

provisionally estimated at Tk. 8,831 billion which is 7.05% higher than that of FY2015 as

shown in Table 5 and Table 6 (page-13).

Per Capita Income

At current prices the per capita GDP and GNI for FY2016 are estimated at Tk. 108,172 (US$

1384) and Tk. 114,547 (US$ 1466) respectively. At constant prices (at 2005-06 prices) the

per capita GDP and GNI for FY2016 are estimated at TK. 55,229 and Tk. 58,484

respectively. The provisional estimates are based on the five to seven months actual data

available for the real sectors, government budget and the projected or trend data of the

remaining sectors and sub-sectors.

3

Sectoral performances of the economy for FY2015:

Agriculture Sector

The agriculture sector, which contributes about 15.33% of the total GDP, includes three sub-

sectors namely (i) Crops and horticulture (ii) Animal farming and (iii) Forest and related

services. The overall growth rate of the broad agriculture sector for FY2016 is provisionally

estimated at 2.60% in real terms over FY2015.

Crop agriculture

Crops and horticulture sub-sector: According to the provisional estimate, the crops and

horticulture sub-sector of the agriculture sector is likely to increase by 0.50% in real terms in

FY2016 over FY2015. This growth is due to increase in Jute and some minor crops

production. The production of Jute has increased from 75.01 lac bale in FY2015 to 75.58 lac

bale in FY2016.

Table 1. Production of major crops

(Lac Metric Ton)

Major Crops 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16(p)

Aus 21.33 23.32 21.58 23.26 23.28 22.89

Aman 127.91 127.98 128.97 130.23 131.90 131.90

Boro 186.17 187.59 187.78 190.07 191.92 191.92

Wheat 9.72 9.95 12.55 13.03 13.48 13.48

Total cereals 345.13 348.85 350.88 356.59 360.58 360.19

Maize 10.18 12.98 15.48 21.24 23.50 23.50

Potato 83.26 82.05 86.03 89.50 92.54 92.54

Jute (Lac bale) 83.96 80.03 76.11 74.36 75.01 75.58

Note: “p” denotes provisional, * denotes actual

Production of Aus rice is 22.89 lac metric tons in FY2016 against 23.28 lac metric

tons in the previous year, i.e. -1.68% lower.

Aman rice production is 131.90 lac metric tons in FY2015 against 130.23 lac metric

tons in FY2014. Production of FY2016 is yet to be finalised.

Since Boro rice production is yet to be finalized, the previous year’s production has

been taken as estimated production for FY2016.

4

It assumes that the previous year’s production of Wheat will be retained (13.48 lac

metric ton) in FY2016.

Production of Maize has been increased significantly over the recent past and BBS is

actively considering to adopt the same procedure for estimating its production like

other major crops. In FY2016, the production Maize has been forecasted to 23.50 lac

metric tons.

Production of Potato has been forecasted at 92.54 lac metric tons in FY2015 as

compared to 89.50 lac metric tons in FY2014.

Production of Jute has increased from 75.58 lac bales in FY2016 to 75.01 lac bales in

FY2015, i.e. 0.76% higher.

Minor crops contributed about 30% to the total output of the crop sub-sector which

includes pulses, spices, sugarcane, fruits, vegetables, tobacco etc. Most of the minor

crops production is yet to be finalized and hence the previous year’s production has

been taken as estimated production for FY2016. It may cause some changes in the

production of minor crops if the final estimation is used. It needs to mention here that

during the estimation of provisional GDP, a number of both major and minor crops

have not been harvested. Therefore, final estimate was not done. Over-all, the growth

of agriculture and forestry sector is likely to increase by 1.53% in FY2016 as against

2.45% growth in the previous year.

5

Non-crop agriculture

Animal farming and forestry: The growth rate in the animal farming sub-sector is likely to

be 3.21% in FY2016 compared to 3.08% in FY2015. Gross value added in the forestry and

related services sub-sector is expected to grow by 5.13% during FY2016, compared to 5.08%

in FY2015.

Fishing: Total production of inland and marine catches as estimated by the Directorate of

Fisheries (DOF) is in FY2016 higher than that of the previous year. The fishing sector is

likely to grow by 6.19% in FY2016 compared to 6.38% in FY2015.

Table 2. Fish production (adjusted)

(Thousand Metric Ton)

Year Inland Fish Marine Fish Total Production

2003-04 1,788 388 2,176

2004-05 1,877 407 2,284

2005-06 1,969 427 2,396

2006-07 2,048 446 2,494

2007-08 2,133 464 2,597

2008-09 2,218 482 2,700

2009-10 2,311 503 2,814

2010-11 2,429 566 2,995

2011-12 2,559 597 3,156

2012-13 2,723 633 3,356

2013-14 2,895 648 3,543

2014-15 3,018 684 3,702

2015-16(p) 3,143 722 3,865

Note: “p” denotes projected estimates

6

Industry Sector

The broad industry sector comprises (i) mining and quarrying (ii) manufacturing (iii)

electricity, gas and water supply and (iv) construction activities. The industry sector

accounts for 31.28% of GDP at constant prices for FY2016. The growth rate of the

broad industry sector is provisionally estimated at 10.10% for FY2016 compared to

9.67% for FY2015. The expected sectoral performances are likely to be as follows:

Mining and quarrying: Data of major components of this sector, i.e. gas, coal and

hard rock are obtained from Petrobangla. Estimation of this sector has been made on

the basis of seven months (July-January, FY2016) data. Mining and quarrying is likely

to sustain its growth at 12.06% in FY2016 which is higher than (9.60%) FY2015.

Production of coal at Barapukuria is included in the ‘Other Mining’ sub-sector. The

growth rate of the ‘Other Mining’ sub-sector is 11.41% in FY2016 as compared to

10.90% in the previous year.

Manufacturing: This sector comprises two sub-sectors:

i) Large and medium scale industries and

ii) Small scale industries

Provisional estimate of Quantum Index of Industrial Production (QIIP) used in computing

value added of large and medium scale industries. Growth rate of value added for large &

medium scale industries is 11.01% in FY2016 as compared to 10.70% in FY2015.

Production of both large and medium scale manufacturing industries, particularly in the case

of Food, Textile, Garments and Knitwear, Fertilizer, Cement, Pharmaceuticals and Edible oil

shows higher growth in the first six months of FY2016. However, Beverage, Tobacco and

Leather and Leather products showed negative growth in the first six months of FY2016 as

compared to the corresponding period in the previous year.

As regards small scale industries, the output of cottage and handloom industries is estimated

using inter-survey growth rates obtained from the past surveys. For estimating output of other

small scale industries Quantum Index of Industrial Production for Small Scale Industries is

used. This sub-sector contributes about 27% of the total output of the manufacturing sector.

The production of this sub-sector mostly depends on indigenous raw materials and is

7

generally immune to external shocks. Small scale manufacturing industries like Grain

milling, Food products, Printing and publishing, Garments products etc. show higher growth

in the first six months of current fiscal year. On the other hand production indices of

miscellaneous plastic products, Iron and Steel etc. shows a downward trend in the same

period. Growth rate of small scale industries as a whole stands at 7.02% in FY2016 as against

8.54% in FY2015.

Table.3. Quantum Index of Major Industries (Large and Medium Scale Industries) (Base: 2005-06)

Code Name of Industry 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

July-December

2014-15 2015-16 Growth

rate

3 GENERAL INDEX(MFG.) 195.19 213.22 236.11 227.92 254.18 11.52

10 Food products 219.1 241.52 333.07 324.61 386.89 19.19

11 Beverages 189.81 243.19 230.06 258.65 250.34 -3.21

12 Tobacco products 144.66 149.65 147.37 144.41 133.65 -7.45

13 Textile 142.41 139.68 122.81 120.42 129.02 7.14

14 Wearing apparel 265.83 293.7 304.76 288.38 316.72 9.83

15 Leather and related products 139.76 147.83 140.48 150.88 114.19 -24.32

16 Wood and products of wood and

cork 238.81 243.39 269.88 259.31 296.13

14.20

17 Paper and paper products 160.43 151.95 174.68 172.75 180.11 4.26

18 Printing and reproduction of

recorded media 124.36 127.73 140.91 137.21 146.41

6.71

19 Coke and refined petroleum

products 101.54 92.76 96.79 99.27 84.31

-15.07

20 Chemicals and chemical

products 84.62 80.41 77.49 79.50 88.49

11.31

21 Pharmaceuticals and medicinal

chemical 178.79 230.6 290.98 295.66 311.09

5.22

22 Rubber and plastic products 244.87 263.84 292.69 291.89 320.74 9.88

23 Other non-metallic mineral

products 139.51 144.18 182.78 166.27 231.41

39.18

24 Basic metals 136.41 150.2 187.13 156.22 182.09 16.56

25 Fabricated metal products except

machinery 149.03 164.33 182.30 179.78 191.86

6.72

26 Computer, electronic and optical

products 99 105.46 148.37 124.81 174.97

40.19

27 Electrical equipment 128.53 132.06 164.56 143.66 195.60 36.15

28 Machinery and equipment n.e.c 155.86 172.68 204.89 192.02 247.12 28.69

29 Motor vehicles, trailers and semi

trailers 186.62 205.84 178.83 160.10 327.49

104.55

30 Other transport equipment 138.21 152.88 340.12 397.02 608.06 53.16

31 Furniture 109.14 101.12 116.35 111.91 129.69 15.89

If other industries could retain at least the same rate of growth as achieved in the

corresponding period of previous fiscal year, the overall manufacturing sector may achieve a

growth rate of 10.30% in FY2016 as compared to 10.31% in FY2015.

8

Electricity and Gas: The data available up to January 2016 have been used for projecting

the growth rate of this sector. Long term trend of the annual production of electricity and gas

is shown in the following table:

Table 4. Production of Gas and Electricity

Year Gas

(106 Cu. meter)

Electricity

(106 KWh)

2004-05 13,783 21,408

2005-06 14,921 22,977

2006-07 15,920 23,268

2007-08 17,014 24,953

2008-09 18,511 26,533

2009-10 19,919 29,246

2010-11 20,075 31,355

2011-12 21,056 35,117

2012-13 22,670 38,229

2013-14 23,232 38,040

2014-15 25,263 40,358

2014-15 14,318 (July- January) 22,895 (July-January)

2015-16 16,097 (July- January) 25,610 (July-January)

In FY2014 and FY2015 electricity production was 38040 and 40,358 million KWh

respectively as reported by Power Development Board (PDB). Electricity production for

the first seven months (July 2015-January 2016) of FY2016 was 25,610 million KWh,

which was 2,715 million KWh higher than that of the same period of the previous year. It

is expected that the generation of electricity will maintain the same growth in the full year

of FY2015.

Gas output is showing a upward trend and natural gas alone accounted for about 37% of

total value added of mining sector.

In FY2014 and FY2015 gas production was 23.23 and 25.26 billion cubic meters

respectively. Gas production for the first seven months (July 2015-January 2016) of

FY2016 was 16.10 billion cubic meters, which was 12.42% higher than that of the same

period of last year.

As a result, the growth rate of the electricity, gas and water supply sector is expected to be

11.15% in FY2016 as compared to 6.22% in FY2015.

Construction: The major components of construction activities are pucca, semi-pucca,

kutcha house construction and other structures. The value of output of pucca and semi-pucca

9

dwelling and non-dwellings construction is estimated using commodity flow approach. This

approach envisages estimation of production of commodities used in construction after

adjusting them for inputs in other industries, changes in stocks; imports and exports so as to

obtain the net availability of commodities for construction purposes. The expenditure on

kutcha house construction is estimated in an indirect way, based on the estimated increase in

the stock of such houses and the cost of construction of an average quality house. Cement,

iron and steel, bricks, timber & round wood and fixtures & fittings are the major inputs of the

construction sector. The domestic production of cement in the first six months of FY2015 is

higher than that of the same period of previous year. Data available from Bangladesh Bank

shows that the import of iron and steel during July-February 2015 is higher than that of the

same period of the previous year. The production of bricks in the first six months of FY2015

is slightly increased over the same period of previous year. Public sector construction is

likely to be higher due to increased Annual Development Programme for FY2015. Overall

the construction sector is likely to achieve higher growth rate due to increase of construction

activity. The construction sector is, therefore, projected to grow by 8.87% in FY2016 against

8.60% in FY2015.

10

Service Sector

Service sector or tertiary sector includes all service activities. Total output of the service

sector consists of the collective outputs of the wholesale and retail trade, transport, storage

and communication, financial intermediations, real estate, renting and business activities,

public administration and defence, education, health and social work and community, social

and personal services activities. The sectoral share of the services sector is 53.39% of the

total GDP at constant prices. Growth scenarios of the services sector for FY2016 are briefly

as follows:

Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles, motorcycles and personal and

household goods: Commodity flow method is applied to estimate output of this sector which

depends on agriculture and manufacturing sectors. The output of this sector is likely to

register a growth rate of 6.61% in FY2016 compared to 6.35% in previous year. It is due to

increase in manufacturing production and imported commodities in FY2016. Table 5 and

table 6 present the value added estimates and the growth rates of wholesale and retail trade

sector during FY2013 to FY2016 at current and constant prices respectively.

Hotel and Restaurant: Growth rates obtained from Hotel and restaurant survey 2009-10 are

used for estimating output of Hotel and Restaurants sector adjusted by coefficients from

survey of selected economic indicators. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is used for constant

price estimates. The sector is expected to achieve a growth rate of 7.00% in FY2016 which is

higher than previous year (6.83%).

Transport, Storage and Communication Sector: Major sources of information of this

sector are Bangladesh Road Transport Authority (BRTA), Bangladesh Railway (BR),

Bangladesh Shipping Corporation (BSC), Chittagong Port Authority, Bangladesh Inland

Water Transport Corporation (BIWTC), Bangladesh Post Office etc. The combined effect of

information from this sector show that the transport, storage and communication sector is

expected to achieve a growth rate of 6.51% in FY2016 which is higher than previous year

(5.96%). Post and Tele communication services increased with a growth of 7.90% in

FY2016. Communication services, particularly the Mobile Phone Services (MPS) market

continued to drive the telecommunication industries because of strong consumer demand

which led to the high growth of Post and Telecommunication sub-sector. Hence the share of

this sector in GDP is estimated 11.37% at constant prices.

11

Financial Intermediations: The financial institutions including central bank, schedule

banks, leasing companies, insurance companies, microfinance institutions, stock markets etc.

belong to this sector. The sources of data are Bangladesh Bank, Insurance Development and

Regularity Authority (IDRA), Bangladesh Insurance Association, Bangladesh Central

Depository Ltd and annual report of other financial institutions. Net interest income is the key

indicator used to estimate the value added of banking sector, where premium received less

claim paid is used to estimate the value added of insurance sector. Other financial auxiliary

includes money changers, insurance agents and stock markets. The sector experienced an

increase of 7.78% in FY2015, where the decrease is estimated to 6.64% in FY2016.

Real Estate, Renting and Business Activities Sector: Inter-censal compound growth rate is

used for estimating dwelling houses. Annual average house rent and maintenance cost is used

for estimating output and intermediate consumption respecting at constant price.

Extrapolation and set movers obtained from the Population and Housing Census, 2011, have

been used for estimating the value added in this sector for FY2016. The growth rate in this

sector is provisionally estimated at 4.51% in FY2016.

Public Administration & Defence sector: This sector covers services rendered by the

administrative departments of the central and the local governments, government non-profit

institutions (NPIs) and defense sector as well. The sources of data are the budget documents

of the central government (revenue and development budgets) and local governments. At

constant prices Public Administration and Defense sector is likely to grow by 15.68 percent

in FY2016 compared to the previous year. This is due to increase in new pay scale, pensions

and gratuities etc. of the government.

Education sector: Gross value added (GVA) of this sector is compiled mainly from public

and private educational institutions. Public part is estimated from Government budget

document. Private part is estimated from the growth rate of “Private education survey 2006-

07”. Sectoral growth rate for education is expected to be 13.78% in FY2016 compared 8.01%

in FY2015.

Health and social works: Health sector is divided into public and private sub sector.

Current price GVA of Public sector is estimated on income method by using the data from

government expenditure data collected from office of the Comptroller General of Accounts

(CGA). Current price is then deflated to constant price by using CPI national. Growth rate of

Survey on private health establishment survey, 2007 is used to estimate constant price GVA

of private sector and it is being inflated by the said deflator to come up with current price

12

estimate. It is estimated that the sector would record as higher growth of 8.45% in FY2016 as

compared to 5.18% in FY2015.

Community, Social and Personal Services: This sector is projected to grow by 3.30% in

FY2016 over FY2015. This sector is estimated from the growth rate of “Labour force survey

2010” and “Professional and miscellaneous survey 1992-93”.

Sectoral Shares in GDP

At current prices the share of the Agriculture sector (which includes crop and non-crop

agriculture, animal farming and poultry, forestry and fishing) in total GDP is 14.75% in

FY2016 as against 15.51% for FY2015. At current prices, the share of Industry sector in total

GDP is 28.56% for FY2016 as against 28.15% for FY2015. The share of the service sector

(wholesale and retail trade; hotel and restaurants; transport, storage and communication;

financial intermediations; real estate, renting and business activity; public administration and

defence; education; health and social work; community, social and personal services) in total

GDP is 56.69% for FY2016 which was 56.35% for FY2015. The data on sectoral shares

show that the share of agriculture sector in GDP is gradually decreasing while that of service

sector is increasing.

These changes indicate that while physical output (particularly for crops and horticulture) of

Agriculture sector has increased on a sustained basis, its relative contribution has been

declining while service sector contribution has been steadily increasing over the period.

13

Table 5. Gross Domestic Product by Industrial Sector at Current Prices, 2012-13 to

2015-16(p) (Million Tk.)

2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16(p)

Industry Sector Value

Added

Sectoral

Growth

Rate

Value

Added

Sectoral

Growth

Rate

Value

Added

Sectoral

Growth

Rate

Value

Added

Sectoral

Growth

Rate

I. Agriculture 1,857,524 8.81 2,062,758 11.05 2,240,810 8.63 2,424,182 8.18

1. Agriculture and Forestry 1,487,578 7.11 1,639,682 10.22 1,764,997 7.64 1,892,720 7.24

i) Crops and Horticulture 1,067,941 5.84 1,179,029 10.40 1,261,209 6.97 1,335,345 5.88

ii) Animal Farming 253,588 10.26 276,668 9.10 298,845 8.02 329,101 10.12

iii) Forest and related

services 166,050 10.84 183,985 10.80 204,942 11.39 228,275 11.39

2. Fishing 369,946 16.24 423,076 14.36 475,813 12.47 531,462 11.70

II. Industry 3,154,016 18.10 3,535,349 12.09 4,067,108 15.04 4,693,740 15.41

3. Mining and Quarrying 194,611 16.88 210,799 8.32 238,757 13.26 288,797 20.96

4. Manufacturing 1,971,272 17.39 2,232,207 13.24 2,544,831 14.01 2,922,821 14.85

i) Large and medium scale 1,584,482 17.90 1,803,818 13.84 2,059,920 14.20 2,383,955 15.73

ii) Small scale 386,790 15.36 428,389 10.75 484,911 13.19 538,867 11.13

5. Electricity, Gas, Water

supply 163,812 15.45 184,006 12.33 198,682 7.98 224,585 13.04

6. Construction 824,321 20.68 908,336 10.19 1,084,839 19.43 1,257,537 15.92

III. Services 6,401,073 14.13 7,206,899 12.59 8,141,955 12.97 9,316,204 14.42

7. Wholesale and retail trade;

repair of motor vehicles,

motorcycles and personal

and household goods 1,545,794 12.51 1,725,752 11.64 1,925,854 11.60 2,144,067 11.33

8. Hotels and Restaurants 112,634 15.46 130,353 15.73 149,279 14.52 170,611 14.29

9. Transport, Storage and

Communication 1,242,805 10.27 1,343,166 8.08 1,500,253 11.70 1,693,965 12.91

10. Financial Intermediations 422,365 16.30 485,632 14.98 557,610 14.82 628,804 12.77

11. Real Estate, Renting and

Business Activity 788,200 14.71 912,291 15.74 1,060,609 16.26 1,233,924 16.34

12. Public Adm. and Defence 376,782 12.48 447,278 18.71 506,741 13.29 701,031 38.34

13. Education 284,293 13.50 327,673 15.26 376,240 14.82 451,324 19.96

14. Health and social work 238,683 18.55 269,238 12.80 301,352 11.93 347,132 15.19

15. Community, social and

personal services 1,389,516 18.47 1,565,516 12.67 1,764,017 12.68 1,945,345 10.28

GVA at current basic prices 11,412,612 14.28 12,805,005 12.20 14,449,873 12.85 16,434,126 13.73

Tax less subsidy 576,620 1.93 631,739 9.56 708,149 12.10 861,540 21.66

GDP at current market prices 11,989,232 13.62 13,436,744 12.07 15,158,022 12.81 17,295,665 14.10

GNI at current market prices 12,953,523 13.18 14,332,238 10.64 16,142,043 12.63 18,314,994 13.46

Note: “p” denotes provisional estimates

14

Table 6. Gross Domestic Product by Industrial Sector at Constant Prices,

2012-13 to 2015-16(p) (base: 2005-06)

(Million Tk.)

2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16(p)

Industry Sector Value

Added

Sectoral

Growth

Rate

Value

Added

Sectoral

Growth

Rate

Value

Added

Sectoral

Growth

Rate

Value

Added

Sectoral

Growth

Rate

I. Agriculture 1,174,360 2.46 1,225,702 4.37 1,266,498 3.33 1,299,436 2.60

1. Agriculture and Forestry 916,565 1.47 951,513 3.81 974,802 2.45 989,677 1.53

i) Crops and Horticulture 664,270 0.59 689,378 3.78 701,996 1.83 705,512 0.50

ii) Animal Farming 128,927 2.74 132,581 2.83 136,666 3.08 141,048 3.21

iii) Forest and related services 123,367 5.04 129,553 5.01 136,139 5.08 143,117 5.13

2. Fishing 257,795 6.18 274,189 6.36 291,695 6.38 309,759 6.19

II. Industry 2,030,084 9.64 2,195,739 8.16 2,407,999 9.67 2,651,202 10.10

3. Mining and Quarrying 115,839 9.35 121,265 4.68 132,901 9.60 148,929 12.06

4. Manufacturing 1,329,941 10.31 1,446,534 8.77 1,595,680 10.31 1,760,008 10.30

i) Large and medium scale 1,084,362 10.65 1,185,403 9.32 1,312,254 10.70 1,456,683 11.01

ii) Small scale 245,579 8.81 261,131 6.33 283,426 8.54 303,325 7.02

5. Electricity, Gas, Water supply 101,257 8.99 105,853 4.54 112,435 6.22 124,974 11.15

6. Construction 483,046 8.04 522,087 8.08 566,983 8.60 617,291 8.87

III. Services 3,794,920 5.51 4,008,360 5.62 4,240,887 5.80 4,525,048 6.70



motorcycles and personal and household goods 981,731 6.18 1,047,757 6.73 1,114,256 6.35 1,187,870 6.61

8. Hotels and Restaurants 52,204 6.49 55,701 6.70 59,504 6.83 63,670 7.00


Communication 805,140 6.27 853,824 6.05 904,748 5.96 963,608 6.51

10. Financial Intermediations 231,097 9.11 247,902 7.27 267,192 7.78 284,922 6.64

11. Real Estate, Renting and Business activities 495,089 4.04 516,147 4.25 538,880 4.40 563,203 4.51

12.. Public Adm. and Defence 235,419 6.53 251,646 6.89 276,365 9.82 319,707 15.68

13. Education 156,447 6.30 167,809 7.26 181,250 8.01 206,222 13.78

14. Health and Social work 131,367 4.76 138,021 5.06 145,174 5.18 157,446 8.45

15. Community, Social and Personal Services 706,426 3.25 729,554 3.27 753,518 3.28 778,400 3.30

GVA at constant basic price 6,999,363 6.14 7,429,801 6.15 7,915,384 6.54 8,475,686 7.08

Tax less subsidy 299,602 3.09 311,560 3.99 333,240 6.96 354,857 6.49

GDP at constant market prices 7,298,965 6.01 7,741,361 6.06 8,248,624 6.55 8,830,544 7.05


15

Table 7. Sectoral Share of GDP at Current and Constant Prices, 2012-13 to 2015-16(p)

2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16(p)

Industry Sector Current

Prices

Constant

Prices

Current

Prices

Constant

Prices

Current

Prices

Constant

Prices

Current

Prices

Constant

Prices

I. Agriculture 16.28 16.78 16.11 16.50 15.51 16.00 14.75 15.33

1. Agriculture and Forestry 13.03 13.09 12.81 12.81 12.21 12.32 11.52 11.68

i) Crops and Horticulture 9.36 9.49 9.21 9.28 8.73 8.87 8.13 8.32

ii) Animal Farming 2.22 1.84 2.16 1.78 2.07 1.73 2.00 1.66

iii) Forest and related services 1.45 1.76 1.44 1.74 1.42 1.72 1.39 1.69

2. Fishing 3.24 3.68 3.30 3.69 3.29 3.69 3.23 3.65

II. Industry 27.64 29.00 27.61 29.55 28.15 30.42 28.56 31.28

3. Mining and Quarrying 1.71 1.65 1.65 1.63 1.65 1.68 1.76 1.76

4. Manufacturing 17.27 19.00 17.43 19.47 17.61 20.16 17.79 20.77

i) Large and medium scale 13.88 15.49 14.09 15.95 14.26 16.58 14.51 17.19

ii) Small scale 3.39 3.51 3.35 3.51 3.36 3.58 3.28 3.58

5. Electricity, Gas, Water supply 1.44 1.45 1.44 1.42 1.37 1.42 1.37 1.47

6. Construction 7.22 6.90 7.09 7.03 7.51 7.16 7.65 7.28

III. Services 56.09 54.22 56.28 53.95 56.35 53.58 56.69 53.39



motorcycles and personal and

household goods 13.54 14.03 13.48 14.10 13.33 14.08 13.05 14.02

8. Hotels and Restaurants 0.99 0.75 1.02 0.75 1.03 0.75 1.04 0.75


Communication 10.89 11.50 10.49 11.49 10.38 11.43 10.31 11.37

10. Financial intermediations 3.70 3.30 3.79 3.34 3.86 3.38 3.83 3.36


Business activities 6.91 7.07 7.12 6.95 7.34 6.81 7.51 6.64

12. Public Adm. and Defence 3.30 3.36 3.49 3.39 3.51 3.49 4.27 3.77

13. Education 2.49 2.24 2.56 2.26 2.60 2.29 2.75 2.43

14. Health and social work 2.09 1.88 2.10 1.86 2.09 1.83 2.11 1.86

15. Community, social and

personal services 12.18 10.09 12.23 9.82 12.21 9.52 11.84 9.18

Total 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00


16

Table 8. Per Capita GDP and GNI at Current Prices, 2011-12 to 2015-16(p)

Item 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16(p)

GDP (Million Tk.) 10,552,040 11,989,232 13,436,744 15158022 17295665

GNI (Million Tk.) 11,445,060 12,953,523 14,332,238 16142043 18314994

Per Capita GDP (Tk.) 69,614 78,009 86,266 96004 108172

Growth rate (per capita GDP) 13.75 12.06 10.58 11.29 12.67

Per Capita GNI (Tk.) 75,505 84,283 92,015 102236 114547

Growth rate (per capita GNI) 14.33 11.63 9.17 11.11 12.04

Per Capita GDP (US $) 880 976 1,110 1236 1384

Per Capita GNI (US $) 955 1,054 1,184 1316 1466


Table 9. Per Capita GDP and GNI at Constant Prices, 2011-12 to 2015-16(p)

(Base: 2005-06)

Item 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16(p)

GDP (Million Tk.) 6,884,932 7,298,965 7,741,361 8248624 8830544

GNI (Million Tk.) 7,467,605 7,886,019 8,257,285 8784104 9350976

Per Capita GDP (Tk.) 45,421 47,491 49,701 52243 55229

Growth rate (per capita GDP) 5.17 4.56 4.65 5.11 5.72

Per Capita GNI (Tk.) 49,265 51,311 53,013 55634 58484

Growth rate (per capita GNI) 5.70 4.15 3.32 4.94 5.12


17

Final Estimates of GDP for FY2015

The provisional estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for FY2015 were released in

September 2015. These estimates are revised and finalized incorporating latest information of

agricultural production, index of industrial production and performance of other key sectors

like construction; transport, storage and communication; financial intermediations and

government expenditure. Thus, final estimates of GDP are based on a more complete annual

data than what were available for the provisional estimates. The salient features of the final

estimates are stated below:

Estimate at constant prices (base: 2005-06)

a. Gross Domestic Product

Gross domestic product at constant prices (base: 2005-06) in FY2015 has now been estimated

at Tk. 8248624 million, against Tk. 7741361 million in FY2014, showing a growth rate of

6.55 per cent over the previous year. The slight increase in growth rate of real GDP in final

estimate (6.55%) as compared to the provisional estimate for the FY2015 (6.51%) is

primarily due to downward revision in the growth of agriculture, mining & quarrying, public

administration, education and some other sectors.

b. Per Capita GDP

The per capita GDP in real terms (base: 2005-06) for FY2015 has been estimated at Tk.

52243 as against Tk. 49,701 for FY2014. The growth rate of per capita GDP has been

estimated at 5.11% for FY2015.

Agriculture sector

According to the final estimates, the agriculture sector (including fishing) showed a growth of

3.33% in FY2015 over FY2014. Such growth was largely attributed to the increased

production of Aus, Aman, Boro, Wheat and Potato.

In the provisional estimates, the crop sub-sector was estimated to grow by 1.30% but in the

final estimates, this sub-sector’s growth rate stood at 1.83%.

In the provisional estimates, the fisheries sub-sector was estimated to grow by 6.41%, but in

the final estimates, this sub-sector recorded slightly lower growth rate of 6.38% based on fish

production data provided by the Directorate of Fishery (DOF).

18

Industry sector

Mining and Quarrying: In the provisional estimate, the projected growth rate of mining and

quarrying sector was 7.48% in FY2015. The final estimate showed a growth rate of 9.60%.

Manufacturing: The overall growth rate of manufacturing sector has been finally estimated

at 10.31% for FY2015 which is lower than the provisional estimate of 10.32%. In the final

estimate, large and medium scale manufacturing industries grew by 10.70% as against

10.24% for FY2015.

Electricity, Gas and Water: The overall growth rate of this sector has been finally estimated

at 6.22% for FY2015 which is lower than the provisional estimate of 7.01%. The electricity,

gas and water sub-sector grew by 6.09%, 5.16% and 9.62% respectively for FY2015.

Construction: In the provisional estimates for FY2015, the growth rate was calculated at

8.60%. The final estimate shows a decrease in the growth rate and stands at 8.63% in

FY2015.

Services sector

Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles, motorcycles and personal and

household goods: The growth rate in this sector is finally estimated at 6.35% as against

6.59% in the provisional estimate for FY2015.

Transport, Storage and Communication: In the final estimate, the growth rate in

Transport, storage and communication sector is 5.96% against 5.99% in the provisional

estimate.

Financial Intermediation: The growth rate of financial intermediation is finally estimated at

7.78% against 8.83% in the provisional estimate.

Public Administration: The growth rate of Public Administration and Defense sector is

finally estimated at 9.82 percent as against 7.48 percent in the provisional estimate for

FY2015.

* Table 10 and table 11 show the volume and growth rate of GDP in the provisional and the

final estimates for FY2015.

Estimate at current prices

Gross Domestic Product

Gross domestic product at current prices for FY2015 has now been estimated at Tk.

15,158,022 million, against Tk. 13,436,744 million in FY2014, showing a growth rate of

12.81% over the previous year.

The growth rate of GDP for FY2015 over FY2014 is finally estimated at 12.81% which was

provisional estimated at 12.65%.

19

Table 10. Provisional and Final Estimates of GDP at Current Prices, 2014-15

(Million Tk.)

Gross Value added Growth Rate

Industry Sector Provisional

Estimate

Final

Estimate

Provisional

Estimate

Final

Estimate

I. Agriculture 2,245,880 2,240,810 8.88 8.63

1. Agriculture and Forestry 1,770,046 1,764,997 7.95 7.64

i) Crops and Horticulture 1,266,231 1,261,209 7.40 6.97

ii) Animal Farming 298,871 298,845 8.02 8.02

iii) Forest and related services 204,944 204,942 11.39 11.39

2. Fishing 475,834 475,813 12.47 12.47

II. Industry 4,029,843 4,067,108 13.99 15.04

3. Mining and Quarrying 233,624 238,757 10.83 13.26

4. Manufacturing 2,560,027 2,544,831 14.69 14.01

i) Large and medium scale 2,066,940 2,059,920 14.59 14.20

ii) Small scale 493,086 484,911 15.10 13.19

5. Electricity, Gas, Water supply 208,083 198,682 13.08 7.98

6. Construction 1,028,109 1,084,839 13.19 19.43

III. Services 8,126,284 8,141,955 12.76 12.97

7. Wholesale and retail trade; repair of

motor vehicles, motorcycles and

personal and household goods 1,931,291 1,925,854 11.91 11.60

8. Hotels and Restaurants 148,446 149,279 13.88 14.52

9. Transport, Storage and Communication 1,435,236 1,500,253 6.85 11.70

10. Financial intermediations 565,770 557,610 16.50 14.82

11. Real Estate, Renting and Business activities 1,063,27

0 1,060,609 16.55 16.26

12. Public Administration and Defense 533,563 506,741 19.29 13.29

13. Education 378,939 376,240 15.65 14.82

14. Health and social work 304,552 301,352 13.12 11.93

15. Community, social and personal

services 1,765,216 1,764,017 12.76 12.68

GVA at Current Basic Prices 14,402,006 14,449,873 12.47 12.85

Tax less subsidy 733,990 708,149 16.19 12.10

GDP at Current Market Prices 15,135,997 15,158,022 12.65 12.81

GNI at Current Market Prices 16,108,951 16,142,043 12.40 12.63

20

Table 11. Provisional and Final Estimates of GDP at Constant Prices, 2014-15

(Base: 2005-06)

(Million Tk.)

Industry Sector

Gross Value added Growth Rate

Provisional

Estimate

Final

Estimate Provisional Final

I. Agriculture 1,262,923 1,266,498 3.04 3.33

1. Agriculture and Forestry 971,163 974,802 2.07 2.45

i) Crops and Horticulture 698,307 701,996 1.30 1.83

ii) Animal Farming 136,689 136,666 3.10 3.08

iii) Forest and related services 136,167 136,139 5.10 5.08

2. Fishing 291,760 291,695 6.41 6.38

II. Industry 2,406,585 2,407,999 9.60 9.67

3. Mining and Quarrying 130,333 132,901 7.48 9.60

4. Manufacturing 1,595,826 1,595,680 10.32 10.31

i) Large and medium scale 1,306,755 1,312,254 10.24 10.70

ii) Small scale 289,071 283,426 10.70 8.54

5. Electricity, Gas, Water supply 113,268 112,435 7.01 6.22

6. Construction 567,158 566,983 8.63 8.60

III. Services 4,242,245 4,240,887 5.83 5.80

7. Wholesale and retail trade; repair of

motor vehicles, motorcycles and

personal and household goods 1,116,811 1,114,256 6.59 6.35

8. Hotels and Restaurants 59,517 59,504 6.85 6.83

9. Transport, Storage and Communication 904,986 904,748 5.99 5.96

10. Financial Intermediations 269,780 267,192 8.83 7.78

11. Real Estate, Renting and Business activities 540,178 538,880 4.66 4.40

12. Public Administration and Defense 270,467 276,365 7.48 9.82

13. Education 180,593 181,250 7.62 8.01

14. Health and Social Work 145,869 145,174 5.69 5.18

15. Community, Social and

Personal Services 754,044 753,518 3.36 3.28

GVA at Basic Prices 7,911,753 7,915,384 6.51 6.55

Tax less subsidy 333,567 333,240 7.06 6.96

GDP at Constant Market Prices 8,245,319 8,248,624 6.51 6.55

21

2 Provisional and Final Estimates of GDP by Expenditure Category

Provisional and Final Estimates by Expenditure Category

Taking the perspective of the final uses of a country’s output, GDP can be derived as the total

of final consumption expenditure, gross capital formation and net exports. Final consumption

expenditure is incurred by three institutional sectors i.e. General Government, Households

and Nonprofit Institutions Serving Households (NPISH).

Final Consumption Expenditure (FCE)

At current prices the final consumption expenditure is likely to grow by 11.56% in FY2016

compared to the previous year. In FY2016, the final consumption is Tk. 13,163,404 million

as against Tk. 11,799,237 million in FY2015. In FY2016, its share in GDE (Gross Domestic

Expenditure) and GDP (Gross Domestic Product) are 75.71% and 76.11% respectively. In

FY2015, the share of final consumption expenditure was 78.38% of GDE and 77.84% of

GDP.

Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE): Private final consumption expenditure is

expected to be Tk. 12,143948 million in FY2016 and Tk. 10,980061 million which is 10.60%

higher than that in FY2015. Table 12 shows the rate of change of consumption expenditure at

current prices.

Table 12. Growth Rate of Final Consumption Expenditure

Year

Growth Rate (%) Consumption-GDP Ratio (%)

Total Private General Government

Total Private General Government

2008-09 10.56 10.58 10.32 79.67 74.57 5.09

2009-10 12.44 12.42 12.71 79.19 74.11 5.08

2010-11 15.10 15.09 15.33 79.38 74.28 5.10

2011-12 14.35 14.38 13.91 78.78 73.74 5.04

2012-13 12.45 12.25 15.35 77.96 72.85 5.12

2013-14 12.00 11.65 16.92 77.91 72.57 5.34

2014-15 12.71 12.60 14.22 77.84 72.44 5.40

2015-16(p) 11.56 10.60 24.45 76.11 70.21 5.89

“p” denotes provisional estimates

22

General Government Consumption Expenditure: Based on budgets (allocations/

estimates), general government consumption expenditure is projected to grow by 24.45% in

FY2016.

The final government consumption expenditure is expected to be Tk. 1,019,456

million in FY2016 which is 5.89% of the GDP (Table-14). In FY2015, the final

consumption expenditure was Tk. 819,176 billion, which was 5.40% of the GDP.

In FY2016, the growth rate of general government final consumption expenditure in

real terms is likely to be 10.71% while this growth rate is estimated at 24.45% at

current prices.

Table 13.General Government Expenditure by Heads

General Government Expenditure (Million Tk.) General Government Expenditure (%)

Year Central Government Local

Govt.*

Total Central Government Local

Govt.*

Total

Total Revenue Develop

ment

Total Revenue Develop

ment

2003-04 (RE) 454170 286000 168170 21,017 475,187 95.58 60.19 35.39 4.42 100.00

2004-05 (RE) 530880 343170 187710 25,020 555,900 95.50 61.73 33.77 4.50 100.00

2005-06 (RE) 571040 376310 194730 32,026 603,066 94.69 62.40 32.29 5.31 100.00

2006-07(RE) 626560 447400 179160 40,032 666,592 93.99 67.12 26.88 6.01 100.00

2007-08(RE) 731850 547300 184550 46,037 777,887 94.08 70.36 23.72 5.92 100.00

2008-09(RE) 851960 655280 196680 54,044 906,004 94.03 72.33 21.71 5.97 100.00

2009-10(RE) 984880 725710 259170 61,049 1,045,929 94.16 69.38 24.78 5.84 100.00

2010-11(RE) 1149380 819310 330070 90,073 1,239,453 92.73 66.10 26.63 7.27 100.00

2011-12(RE) 1353300 973100 380200 109,088 1,462,388 92.54 66.54 26.00 7.46 100.00

2012-13(RE) 1587470 1087120 500350 140,113 1,727,583 91.89 62.93 28.96 8.11 100.00

2013-14(RE) 1802500 1233370 569130 170,138 1,972,638 91.38 62.52 28.85 8.62 100.00

2014-15(RE) 2075320 1363880 711440 188,152 2,263,472 91.69 60.26 31.43 8.31 100.00

2015-16(BE) 2577466 1732420 845046 222,180 2,799,646 92.06 61.88 30.18 7.94 100.00

* Revised series, RE denotes revised estimates and BE denotes budget estimates

23

Figure 6 shows the final consumption expenditure and its share by private and general

government.

Table 14. Expenditure and Final Consumption of General Government (Million Tk.)

Year Total Expenditure Total Consumption % of Consumption

2007-08(RE) 777,887 325549 41.85

2008-09(RE) 906,004 359,146 39.64

2009-10 (RE) 1,045,929 404777 38.70

2010-11 (RE) 1,239,453 466839 37.66

2011-2012(RE) 1,462,388 531753 36.36

2012-2013(RE) 1,727,583 613,385 35.51

2013-2014(RE) 1,972,638 717,189 36.36

2014-2015(RE) 2,263,472 819,176 36.19

2015-2016(BE) 2,799,646 1,019,456 36.41

RE denotes revised estimates and BE denotes budget estimates

24

Gross Capital Formation (GCF)

The gross capital formation is made up of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) and change

in inventories (increase/decrease). Gross capital formation or investment is expected to be Tk.

5,081,382 million in FY2016 compared to Tk. 4,378,651 million in FY2015. Growth rate of

gross capital formation is likely to be 16.05% at current prices compared to 14.03% in

FY2015. The percentage share of GFCF to GDP is likely to be 29.38% during FY2016

compared to 28.89 in FY2015.

Private Gross Capital Formation: The private gross capital formation is estimated Tk.

3,344,722 million (76.39% of total GCF) in FY2015. In FY2016, private gross capital

formation is estimated at Tk. 3,767,549 million. The growth rate of GCF for FY2016 over

FY2015 is expected to be 12.64% in nominal terms.

Private GCF or investment grew by 13.00% in FY2015 over FY2014 and is

expected to grow by 12.64% in FY2016.

Private investment-GDP ratio is likely to be 21.78% in FY2016 compared to

22.07% in FY2015.

Public investment-GDP ratio is likely to be 7.60% in FY2016 compared to 6.82%

in FY2015.

25

Table 15. Expenditure Based Gross Domestic Product at Current Prices, 2012-13 to 2015-16 (p) (Million Tk.)

Item 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16(p)

1. Domestic demand [(1.1)+(1.2)] 12,750,971 14,308,511 16,177,888 18,244,786

1.1 Consumption [(1.1.1)+(1.1.2)] 9,347,273 10,468,575 11,799,237 13,163,404

1.1.1 Private 8,733,888 9,751,386 10,980,061 12,143,948

1.1.2 General Government 613,385 717,189 819,176 1,019,456

1.2 Investment [(1.2.1)+(1.2.2)] 3,403,697 3,839,936 4,378,651 5,081,382

1.2.1 Private 2,607,486 2,960,024 3,344,722 3,767,549

1.2.2 Public 796,211 879,912 1,033,929 1,313,833

2. Resource balance [(2.1)-(2.2)] -865,701 -878,059 -1,123,611 -857,399

2.1 Exports 2,342,441 2,551,592 2,627,897 2,814,678

2.2 Imports 3,208,142 3,429,651 3,751,508 3,672,077

3. Gross Domestic Expenditure at m.p. 11,885,270 13,430,452 15,054,277 17,387,387

4. Gross Domestic Product at m.p. 11,989,232 13,436,744 15,158,022 17,295,664

5. Statistical Discrepancy [(4)-(3)] 103,962 6,292 103,745 -91,723

6. Net factor income from abroad 964,291 895,494 984,021 1,019,330

7. Gross National Income at m.p. [(4)+(6)] 12,953,523 14,332,238 16,142,043 18,314,994

8. Net current transfers from abroad 53,749 63,342 56,001 90,671

9. Gross Disposable National Income

[(7)+(8)] 13,007,272 14,395,580 16,198,044 18,405,665

10. Gross Domestic savings [(4)-(1.1)] 2,641,959 2,968,169 3,358,785 4,132,260

11. Gross National savings [(9)-(1.1)] 3,659,999 3,927,005 4,398,807 5,242,262

12. Current Account Balance [(2)+(6)+(8)] 152,339 80,777 -83,589 252,603

As percent of GDP

Consumption 77.96 77.91 77.84 76.11

Private 72.85 72.57 72.44 70.21

General Government 5.12 5.34 5.40 5.89

Investment 28.39 28.58 28.89 29.38

Private 21.75 22.03 22.07 21.78

Public 6.64 6.55 6.82 7.60

Exports of goods and services 19.54 18.99 17.34 16.27

Imports of goods and services 26.76 25.52 24.75 21.23

Gross Domestic savings 22.04 22.09 22.16 23.89

Gross National savings 30.53 29.23 29.02 30.31

Note: “p” denotes provisional estimates. “-”denotes negative

26

Table 16. Expenditure Based Gross Domestic Product at Constant Prices, 2012-13 to 2015-16 (p) (Base: 2005-06)

(Million Tk.)

Item 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16(p)

1. Domestic demand [(1.1)+(1.2)] 7,490,025 7,933,480 8,438,208 9,000,563

1.1 Consumption [(1.1.1)+(1.1.2)] 5,282,071 5,507,931 5,839,989 6,170,876

1.1.1 Private 4,913,936 5,110,768 5,408,068 5,692,703

1.1.2 General Government 368,135 397,163 431,921 478,173

1.2 Investment [(1.2.1)+(1.2.2)] 2,207,954 2,425,549 2,598,219 2,829,687

1.2.1 Private 1,713,349 1,873,379 1,986,084 2,095,903

1.2.2 Public 494,605 552,170 612,135 733,785

2. Resource balance [(2.1)-(2.2)] -255,176 -228,952 -325,733 -173,036

2.1 Exports 1,436,734 1,482,726 1,440,765 1,436,174

2.2 Imports 1,691,911 1,711,678 1,766,498 1,609,210

3. Gross Domestic Expenditure at m.p. 7234849 7704528 8112475 8827528

4. Gross Domestic Product at m.p. 7298965 7741361 8248624 8830544

5. Statistical Discrepancy [(4)-(3)] 64,116 36,833 136,149 3,016

6. Net factor income from abroad 587,054 515,924 535,480 520,433

7. Gross National Income at m.p. [(4)+(6)] 7,886,019 8,257,285 8,784,104 9,350,977

8. Net current transfers from abroad 32,722 36,493 30,474 46,293

9. Gross Disposable National Income

[(7)+(8)] 7,918,741 8,293,779 8,814,578 9,397,271

GDP Deflator 164.26 173.57 183.76 195.86

(Implicit deflators : base=2005-06)

Final consumption expenditure

Consumer prices index 177.74 190.80 203.03 213.32

Special Government employees Index 166.62 180.58 189.66 213.20

Gross capital formation

Other construction (Kutcha) 156.31 165.86 176.47 183.23

Wage rate Index (Agriculture) 192.72 205.54 218.55 230.64

Construction Materiel Price Index

(Building Materiel Price Index) 173.24 179.13 190.97 203.94

Planted Machinery 115.71 119.76 120.61 127.52

Transport equipment 144.39 149.53 150.59 154.62

Other capital goods 139.05 143.96

Unit price Index

Export 163.04 172.09 182.40 195.98

Import 189.62 200.37 212.37 228.19

Annual percentage change

Final consumption expenditure :

Household final consumption expenditure 5.13 4.01 5.82 5.26

General govt. final consumption expenditure 5.79 7.89 8.75 10.71

Gross capital formation 5.36 9.86 7.12 8.91


27

Public Gross Capital Formation

Growth rate of public sector investment or GCF for FY2016 is projected at 27.07% over

FY2015 at current prices.

Table 17. Gross Fixed Capital Formation in Public Sector by Sources of Funding at

Current Prices

(Million Tk.)

Year Central Government Local

Government

Autonomous and

SOEs

Total

Development

Budget (ADP)

Revenue

Budget

2004-05 92,820 27,470 15,625 99,186 235,101

2005-06 103,314 28,918 18,005 118,080 268,317

2006-07 98,537 24,676 21,577 135,291 280,081

2007-08 94,953 28,314 24,706 134,841 282,814

2008-09 103,231 32,533 27,586 141,022 304,372

2009-10 134,201 39,350 32,392 166,817 372,760

2010-11 183,133 50,337 44,971 203,063 481,504

2011-12 251,386 38,939 74,067 243,628 608,020

2012-13 368,758 85,733 59,348 282,372 796,211

2013-14 461,291 108,768 70,968 238,885 879,912

2014-15 546,163 132,646 82,323 272,797 1,033,929

2015-16(p) 693,573 129,390 136,657 354,213 1,313,833 Note: “p” denotes provisional estimates

Public sector investment or GCF is likely to be Tk. 1,313,833 million in FY2016

compared to Tk. 1,033,929 million in FY2015.

Table 18. Gross Domestic Fixed Capital Formation by Public and Private sectors

at Current Prices (Million Tk.)

Year Gross Fixed Capital Formation

Public % of GDP Private % of GDP Total % of GDP

2007-08 282,814 4.50 1,364,477 21.70 1,647,290 26.20

2008-09 304,372 4.32 1,543,343 21.89 1,847,715 26.21

2009-10 372,760 4.67 1,720,512 21.57 2,093,272 26.25

2010-11 481,504 5.26 2,029,788 22.16 2,511,292 27.42

2011-12 608,020 5.76 2,374,233 22.50 2,982,253 28.26

2012-13 796,211 6.64 2,607,486 21.75 3,403,697 28.39

2013-14 879,912 6.55 2,960,024 22.03 3,839,936 28.58

2014-15 1,033,929 6.82 3,344,722 22.07 4,378,651 28.89

2015-16(p) 1,313,833 7.60 3,767,549 21.78 5,081,382 29.38


28

Table 19. Shares of Public and Private Investment

Year

As % of total investment

2005-06 prices Current prices

Private Public Private Public

2007-08 82.84 17.16 82.83 17.17

2008-09 83.59 16.41 83.53 16.47

2009-10 82.36 17.64 82.19 17.81

2010-11 81.15 18.85 80.83 19.17

2011-12 80.37 19.63 79.61 20.39

2012-13 77.60 22.40 76.61 23.39

2013-14 77.24 22.76 77.09 22.91

2014-15 76.44 23.56 76.39 23.61

2015-16(p) 74.07 25.93 74.14 25.86


Net Exports of Goods and Services

Net exports of goods and services are the difference between exports and imports of goods

and services. In FY2015 the total exports and imports were recorded at Tk. 2,627,897 million

and Tk 3,751,508 million. As a result, the country posted a trade deficit of Tk.1,123,611

million. In terms of GNI at current prices, the trade deficit was 6.96%.

The volume of export for FY2016 has been projected on the basis of six months’ (July-

December, 2015) actual data on export available from the balance of payments statement

(BOP) prepared by Bangladesh Bank.

The value of imports of goods and services for FY2016 is estimated at Tk.3,672,077

million compared to Tk. 3,751,508 million in FY2015.

Growth rate of imports of goods and services is likely to be around (-)2.12% in

Y2016 over FY2015.

The value of exports of goods and services for FY2016 is estimated at Tk. 2,814,678

million compared to Tk. 2,627,897 million in FY2015.

Growth rate of exports of goods and services is likely to be around 7.11% in FY2016

over FY2015.

29

Table 20. Investment-GDP Ratio

Year

Investment as % of GDP

2005-06 prices Current prices

Total Private Public Total Private Public

2007-08 27.10 22.45 4.65 26.20 21.70 4.50

2008-09 27.71 23.16 4.55 26.21 21.89 4.32

2009-10 28.49 23.47 5.03 26.25 21.57 4.67

2010-11 29.32 23.80 5.53 27.42 22.16 5.26

2011-12 30.44 24.46 5.98 28.26 22.50 5.76

2012-13 30.25 23.47 6.78 28.39 21.75 6.64

2013-14 31.33 24.20 7.13 28.58 22.03 6.55

2014-15 31.50 24.08 7.42 28.89 22.07 6.82

2015-16(p) 32.04 23.73 8.31 29.38 21.78 7.60


Net factor income

Based on provisional estimate, net factor income posted a positive growth of 3.59% in

FY2016 over previous year.

Net current transfer

Based on provisional estimate, net current transfer posted a positive growth of 61.91% in

FY2016.

Investment and Savings

During FY2015, the investment-GDP ratio was 28.89%, of which investment-GDP ratio for

public sector was 6.82% and private sector was 22.07%. In FY2016, the investment-GDP

ratio is estimated at 29.38% while public and private sector investment-GDP ratios are likely

to be 7.60 and 21.78% respectively. Table 21 shows the savings and investment balance

during FY2010 to FY2016.

30

Table 21. Savings and Investment as percent of GDP

Category 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16(p)

Investment 26.25 27.42 28.26 28.39 28.58 28.89 29.38

Private 21.57 22.16 22.50 21.75 22.03 22.07 21.78

Public 4.67 5.26 5.76 6.64 6.55 6.82 7.60

Domestic savings 20.81 20.62 21.22 22.04 22.09 22.16 23.89

Private 19.48 19.30 19.87 20.59 1.51 1.54 1.85

Public 1.33 1.32 1.36 1.45 20.58 20.62 22.04

National savings 29.44 28.88 29.86 30.53 29.23 29.02 30.31


In FY2015, about 71.82% of the total investment is recorded for construction, 19.68% in

plant and machinery, 8.50% in transport equipment.

In FY2016, about 71.97% of the total investment is recorded for construction, 19.53% in

plant and machinery, 8.50% in transport equipment.

31

Table 22. Composition of Gross Fixed Capital Formation (Million Tk.)

Year Construction Plant and

Machinery

Transport

Equipment

Others Gross Fixed

Capital

Formation

2007-08 1,103,272 345,108 181,972 16,938 1,647,290

2008-09 1,273,669 340,782 213,367 19,898 1,847,715

2009-10 1,429,513 398,276 242,109 23,374 2,093,272

2010-11 1,641,692 520,015 322,128 27,457 2,511,292

2011-12 1,956,904 658,786 334,310 32,254 2,982,253

2012-13 2,354,061 657,298 354,451 37,888 3,403,697

2013-14 2,62,0743 847,432 371,761 - 3,839,936

2014-15 3,145,411 861,724 371,516 - 4,378,651

2015-16(p) 3,657,099 991,640 432,643 - 5,081,382 Note: “p” denotes provisional estimates

Figure 10: Composition of GFCF for FY2015 and FY2016

32

Saving: Saving represents the excess of current income over current expenditure. Domestic

saving is a residual estimate i.e., it is the difference between GDP and final consumption.

Thus,

GDP = C+I+(X-M)

or, GDP–C = I+(X-M)

or, S(saving, domestic ) = I+(X-M)

Again, GDP = C+I+(X-M)

or, GDP+NFI (net factor income) = C+I+(X-M)+NFI

or, GNI (gross national income) = C+I+(X-M)+NFI

or, GNI+NCT (net current transfer) = C+I+(X-M)+NFI+NCT

or, GNDI (gross national disposable

income)

= C+I+(X-M)+NFI+NCT

or, GNDI-C = I+(X-M)+NFI+NCT

i.e. S (national saving, gross ) = I+CAB, where

CAB = (X-M)+NFI+NCT

Where GNDI = Gross National Disposable

Income

CAB = Current account balance

obtained from the balance of

payments (BOP)

When net factor income and net current transfers from abroad are taken into account

with gross domestic saving, the national saving could be arrived.

It is obvious from the equation S (national saving) = I+CAB that, if CAB =0, then

S=I. Obviously, it is a case only for a closed economy. On the other hand, if CAB is negative

(-), the Investment is greater than saving and conversely if CAB is positive (+) the saving is

greater than investment.

33

Table 23. National Accounts Statistics and BOP Identities

(Million Tk.)

Data category 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16(p)

Balance of Payments

1. Exports of goods and non-factor services (E) 2,127,459 2,342,441 2,551,592 2,627,897 2,814,678

2. Imports of goods and non-factor services (M) 2,949,225 3,208,142 3,429,651 3,751,508 3,672,077

3. Current account balance (CAB) 89,163 152,339 80,777 (83,589) 213,584

4. Net factor income from abroad (NFI) 893020 964291 895494 984021 980311

5. Net current transfers (NCT) 17909 53749 63342 56001 90671

National Accounts Statistics (NAS)

6. Gross Domestic Products (GDP) 10,552,040 11,989,232 13,436,744 15,158,022 17,295,664

7. Gross Domestic Expenditure (GDE) 10,472,987 11,885,270 13,430,452 15,054,277 17,387,387

8. Gross National Income (GNI) 11,462,969 13,007,272 14,395,580 16,198,044 18,366,646

9. Gross Disposable Income (GDI) 11,462,969 13,007,272 14,395,580 16,198,044 18,366,646

10. Investment (I) 2,982,253 3,403,697 3,839,936 4,378,651 5,081,382

Gross Domestic Savings (GDS) 2,239,540 2,641,959 2,968,169 3,358,785 4,132,260

GDP-C 2,239,540 2,641,959 2,968,169 3,358,785 4,132,260

I+(X-M) 2,160,487 2,537,996 2,961,877 3,255,040 4,223,983

S-NFI-NCT 2,239,540 2,641,959 2,968,169 3,358,785 4,132,260

National Savings (S) 3,150,469 3,659,999 3,927,005 4,398,807 5,242,262

CAB+I 3,071,416 3,556,036 3,920,713 4,295,062 5,333,985

GDI-C 3,150,469 3,659,999 3,927,005 4,398,807 5,242,262

Foreign Savings (FS) 89,163 152,339 80,777 -83,589 252,603

Investment (I) 2,982,253 3,403,697 3,839,936 4,378,651 5,081,382

(S-NFI-NCT)-(X-M) 3,061,306 3,507,660 3,846,228 4,482,396 4,989,659


34

Final Estimates of Expenditure based GDP, FY2015

Of the main components of GDP by expenditure category, private consumption expenditure

grew by 12.71% at current prices while it grew by 6.03% at constant prices in FY2015 over

FY2014. Based on data, private consumption expenditure has finally been estimated at Tk.

10,980,061 million as against Tk. 10936,180 million in the provisional estimates in FY2015,

which is 0.40% higher than the provisional estimate. This difference between provisional and

final estimates of GDE at current and constant prices in FY2015 may be seen in Table 24 and

Table 25.

The final estimate of gross fixed capital formation or investment is lower than the provisional

estimate in FY2015. Investment growth rate was 14.18% at current prices for the provisional

estimate while the growth rate in the final estimate 14.03% during FY2015. Growth rate of

private investment in final estimate goes up to 13.00% as against 12.84% in provisional

estimate. Also public sector investment in final estimate goes down to 17.50% as against

18.67% in the provisional estimate for FY2015.

35

Table 24. Provisional and Final Estimates of Expenditure based GDP at Current

Prices, 2014-15

(Million Tk.)

Expenditure Components of GDE Provisional

Estimates

Final

Estimates

% Change

Final Over

Provisional

Estimates

Growth Rate

Provisional Final

Consumption 11,760,154 11,799,237 0.33 12.34 12.71

Private 10936180 10980061 0.40 12.15 12.60

Public 823,974 819,176 (-)0.58 14.89 14.22

Investment 4,384,378 4,378,651 (-)0.13 14.18 14.03

Private 3340143 3344722 0.14 12.84 13.00

Public 1044235 1033929 (-)0.99 18.67 17.50

Exports 2603389 2627897 0.94 2.03 2.99

Imports 3900885 3751508 (-)3.83 13.74 9.38

Gross Domestic Expenditure at m.p. 14,847,036 15,054,277 1.40 10.55 12.09

Net factor income from abroad 972954 984021 1.14 8.65 9.89

Gross National Income at m.p. 16,108,951 16,142,043 0.21 12.40 12.63

Net Current transfers from abroad 58300 56001 (-)3.94 (-)7.96 (-)11.59

Gross Disposable National Income 16,167,251 16,198,044 0.19 12.31 12.52

Note: “-” denote negative

Table 25. Provisional and Final Estimates of Expenditure based GDP

at Constant Prices, 2014-15 (Million Tk.)

Expenditure Components of GDP Provisional

Estimates

Final

Estimates

% Change

Final Over

Provisional

Estimates

Growth Rate

Provisional Final

Consumption 5,384,431 5,408,068 0.44 5.65 6.03

Private 434,555 431,921 (-)0.61 5.35 5.82

Public 2,657,483 2,598,219 (-)2.23 9.41 8.75

Investment 2,035,609 1,986,084 (-)2.43 9.56 7.12

Private 621,875 612,135 (-)1.57 8.66 6.02

Public 5,384,431 5,408,068 0.44 12.62 10.86

Exports 1,427,732 1,440,765 0.91 (-)3.71 (-)2.83

Imports 1,840,831 1,766,498 (-)4.04 7.55 3.20

Gross Domestic Expenditure at m.p 8063371 8112475 0.61 4.66 5.29

Net factor income from abroad 530,016 535,480 1.03 2.73 3.79

Gross National Income at m.p. 8,775,335 8,784,104 0.10 6.27 6.38

Net Current transfers from abroad 31,759 30,474 (-)4.05 (-)12.97 (-)16.49

Gross Disposable National Income 8,807,094 8,814,578 0.08 6.19 6.28

Note: “-” denote negative

37

3 Inflation and Growth Rate

Inflation

As per Consumer Price Index (CPI) (base: 2005-06), the rate of inflation during FY2015 was

6.41% compared to 7.35% in FY2014. Prices of food items increased by 6.68% while prices

of non-food items increased by 5.99% during FY2015. During FY2015, nine month average

inflation rate is 6.05%.

Besides the CPI, price changes can also be measured by percentage change of GDP deflator.

It can be used as an alternative measuring tool of inflation as CPI takes into account only the

selected consumer items. On the other hand, National Accounts Statistics (NAS) take into

account the prices of all outputs (goods and services) produced from each and every

economic activity for an accounting year within a geographical territory.

For the sake of comparison of inflation rates based on CPI and GDP deflator the

required data from FY2007 to FY2016 have been presented in Figure 9.

38

Table 26. Inflation Rate - National (Base: 2005-06 = 100)

CPI category

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16

Jul’15 Aug’15 Sep’15 Oct’15 Nov’15 Dec’15 Jan'16 Feb’16 Mar’16

General 6.78 7.35 6.41 6.36 6.17 6.24 6.19 6.05 6.1 6.07 5.62 5.65

Food 5.22 8.56 6.68 6.07 6.06 5.92 5.89 5.72 5.48 4.33 3.77 3.89

Non-food 9.17 5.55 5.99 6.80 6.35 6.73 6.67 6.56 7.05 8.74 8.46 4.36

Table 27. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Inflation Rate

(Point to Point) (Base: 2005-06 = 100)

CPI Classification 2012-13 2013-04 2014-15 2015-16

Dec’15 Jan’16 Feb’16 Mar’16

NATIONAL

General index 181.73 195.08 207.58 220.45 222.87 222.58 223.35

Inflation 6.78 7.35 6.41 6.10 6.07 5.62 5.65

Food index 193.24 209.79 223.8 236.57 236.42 235.81 236.99

Inflation 5.22 8.56 6.68 5.48 4.33 3.77 3.89

Non-food 166.97 176.23 186.79 199.78 205.50 205.61 205.64

Inflation 9.17 5.55 5.99 7.05 8.74 8.46 8.36

ALL RURAL

General index 183.9 196.90 209.1 220.87 222.75 222.32 222.98

Inflation 6.14 7.07 6.2 5.58 5.29 4.76 4.79

Food index 192.14 207.72 221.02 232.02 231.86 231.06 232.12

Inflation 4.64 8.11 6.4 4.76 3.63 3.04 3.15

Non-food 170.79 179.69 190.13 203.13 208.26 208.42 208.44

Inflation 8.94 5.21 5.81 7.10 8.37 7.97 7.82

ALL URBAN

General index 177.71 191.73 204.76 219.67 223.09 223.06 223.75

Inflation 8.02 7.89 6.8 7.07 7.53 7.22 7.27

Food index 195.91 214.85 230.56 247.67 247.55 247.41 248.85

Inflation 6.64 9.67 7.31 7.14 5.96 5.48 5.61

Non-food 161.88 171.61 182.32 195.31 201.81 201.87 201.91

Inflation 9.50 6.01 6.24 6.98 9.25 9.14 9.12

Table 28 shows the GDP growth rates both in real and nominal terms and inflation rate based

on CPI during FY2007 to FY2016.

39

Table 28. GDP growth and Inflation Rate

GDP growth rate Inflation rate

(Base: 2005-06) Period Nominal growth rate Real growth rate

FY 2007 13.99 7.06 9.39

FY2008 14.35 6.01 12.30

FY2009 12.15 5.05 7.60

FY2010 13.11 5.57 6.82

FY2011 14.83 6.46 10.91

FY2012 15.22 6.52 8.69

FY2013 13.62 6.01 6.78

FY2014 12.68 6.06 7.35

FY2015 12.81 6.55 6.45

FY2016(p) 14.10 7.05 6.05/a

Note: /a Nine month (July-March, FY2016) average

It is observed that the average real and nominal GDP growth rates during the last five years

were 6.44% and 13.57% respectively. The average inflation rate during this period was

recorded as 7.06%.

Annex-I

GDP Annex Tables

43

Table 1. Gross Domestic Product of Bangladesh at Current Prices, 2012-13 to 2015-16(p) (Million Tk.)

Industrial origin sector 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16(p)

1. AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY 1,487,578 1,639,682 1,764,997 1,892,720

a) Crops & horticulture 1,067,941 1,179,029 1,261,209 1,335,345

b) Animal Farming’s 253,588 276,668 298,845 329,101

c) Forest and related services 166,050 183,985 204,942 228,275

2. FISHING 369,946 423,076 475,813 531,462

3. MINING AND QUARRYING 194,611 210,799 238,757 288,797

a) Natural gas and crude petroleum 79,531 81,557 91,877 107,213

b) Other mining & quarrying 115,080 129,242 146,880 181,584

4. MANUFACTURING 1,971,272 2,232,207 2,544,831 2,922,821

a) Large & medium scale 1,584,482 1,803,818 2,059,920 2,383,955

b) Small scale 386,790 428,389 484,911 538,867

5. ELECTRICITY, GAS AND WATER

SUPPLY 163,812 184,006 198,682 224,585

a) Electricity 121,682 138,335 150,614 171,330

b) Gas 34,475 36,759 37,866 41,501

c) Water 7,655 8,912 10,203 11,753

6. CONSTRUCTION 824,321 908,336 1,084,839 1,257,537

7. WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE;

REPAIR OF MOTOR VEHICLES,

MOTORCYCLES AND PERSONAL

AND HOUSEHOLD GOODS 1,545,794 1,725,752 1,925,854 2,144,067

8. HOTEL AND RESTAURANTS 112,634 130,353 149,279 170,611

9. TRANSPORT, STORAGE &

COMMUNICATION 1,242,805 1,343,166 1,500,253 1,693,965

a) Land Transport 921,831 993,106 1,120,956 1,281,164

b) Water transport 76,486 80,643 89,674 102,448

c) Air transport 10,471 11,156 12,688 13,093

d) Support transport services, storage 60,014 66,716 74,270 78,134

e) Post and Tele communications 174,003 191,544 202,665 219,127

10. FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATIONS 422,365 485,632 557,610 628,804

a) Monetary intermediation (Banks) 347,270 403,897 466,437 528,969

b) Insurance 49,198 53,636 59,376 64,790

c) Other financial intermediation 25,897 28,100 31,796 35,045

11. REAL ESTATE, RENTING AND

BUSINESS ACTIVITIES 788,200 912,291 1,060,609 1,233,924

12. PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION AND

DEFENCE 376,782 447,278 506,741 701,031

13. EDUCATION 284,293 327,673 376,240 451,324

14. HEALTH AND SOCIAL WORKS 238,683 269,238 301,352 347,132

15. COMMUNITY, SOCIAL AND

PERSONAL SERVICES 1,389,516 1,565,516 1,764,017 1,945,345

GVA at basic price 11,412,612 12,805,005 14,449,873 16,434,126

Tax less subsidy 576,620 631,739 708,149 861,540

GDP at current market price 11,989,232 13,436,744 15,158,022 17,295,665

Growth rate 13.62 12.07 12.81 14.10

Note : p denotes provisional

44

Table 2. Sectoral Share of GDP at Current Prices, 2012-13 to 2015-16(p)


1. AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY 13.03 12.81 12.21 11.52

a) Crops & horticulture 9.36 9.21 8.73 8.13

b) Animal Farmings 2.22 2.16 2.07 2.00

c) Forest and related services 1.45 1.44 1.42 1.39

2. FISHING 3.24 3.30 3.29 3.23

3. MINING AND QUARRYING 1.71 1.65 1.65 1.76

a) Natural gas and crude petroleum 0.70 0.64 0.64 0.65

b) Other mining & quarrying 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.10

4. MANUFACTURING 17.27 17.43 17.61 17.79

a) Large & medium scale 13.88 14.09 14.26 14.51

b) Small scale 3.39 3.35 3.36 3.28

5. ELECTRICITY, GAS AND WATER SUPPLY 1.44 1.44 1.37 1.37

a) Electricity 1.07 1.08 1.04 1.04

b) Gas 0.30 0.29 0.26 0.25

c) Water 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07

6. CONSTRUCTION 7.22 7.09 7.51 7.65



MOTORCYCLES AND PERSONAL AND

HOUSEHOLD GOODS 13.54 13.48 13.33 13.05

8. HOTEL AND RESTAURANTS 0.99 1.02 1.03 1.04


COMMUNICATION 10.89 10.49 10.38 10.31

a) Land Transport 8.08 7.76 7.76 7.80

b) Water transport 0.67 0.63 0.62 0.62

c) Air transport 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.08

d) Support transport services, storage 0.53 0.52 0.51 0.48

e) Post and Tele communications 1.52 1.50 1.40 1.33

10. FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATIONS 3.70 3.79 3.86 3.83

a) Monetary intermediation (Banks) 3.04 3.15 3.23 3.22

b) Insurance 0.43 0.42 0.41 0.39

c) Other financial intermediation 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.21

11. REAL ESTATE, RENTING AND BUSINESS

ACTIVITIES 6.91 7.12 7.34 7.51

12. PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION AND DEFENCE 3.30 3.49 3.51 4.27

13. EDUCATION 2.49 2.56 2.60 2.75

14. HEALTH AND SOCIAL WORKS 2.09 2.10 2.09 2.11

15. COMMUNITY, SOCIAL AND PERSONAL

SERVICES 12.18 12.23 12.21 11.84

GVA at current basic price 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00


45

Table 3. Sectoral Growth Rate of GDP at Current Prices, 2012-13 to 2015-16(p)




b) Animal Farming’s 10.26 9.10 8.02 10.12


2. FISHING 16.24 14.36 12.47 11.70




4. MANUFACTURING 17.39 13.24 14.01 14.85


b) Small scale 15.36 10.75 13.19 11.13

5. ELECTRICITY, GAS AND WATER SUPPLY 15.45 12.33 7.98 13.04

a) Electricity 19.42 13.69 8.88 13.75

b) Gas 4.48 6.63 3.01 9.60

c) Water 9.26 16.42 14.48 15.20

6. CONSTRUCTION 20.68 10.19 19.43 15.92




HOUSEHOLD GOODS 12.51 11.64 11.60 11.33



COMMUNICATION 10.27 8.08 11.70 12.91

a) Land Transport 10.60 7.73 12.87 14.29


c) Air transport 2.42 6.54 13.73 3.19





b) Insurance 7.32 9.02 10.70 9.12



ACTIVITIES 14.71 15.74 16.26 16.34

12. PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION AND DEFENCE 12.48 18.71 13.29 38.34

13. EDUCATION 13.50 15.26 14.82 19.96



SERVICES 18.47 12.67 12.68 10.28

GDP at current market price 13.62 12.07 12.81 14.10


46

Table 4. Gross Domestic Product of Bangladesh at Constant Prices, 2012-13 to 2015-16(p) (Base: 2005-06)


1. AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY 916,565 951,513 974,802 989,677

a) Crops & horticulture 664,270 689,378 701,996 705,512

b) Animal Farming’s 128,927 132,581 136,666 141,048

c) Forest and related services 123,367 129,553 136,139 143,117

2. FISHING 257,795 274,189 291,695 309,759


a) Natural gas and crude petroleum 71,017 72,769 79,120 89,013

b) Other mining & quarrying 44,822 48,496 53,781 59,916

4. MANUFACTURING 1,329,941 1,446,534 1,595,680 1,760,008

a) Large & medium scale 1,084,362 1,185,403 1,312,254 1,456,683

b) Small scale 245,579 261,131 283,426 303,325


SUPPLY 101,257 105,853 112,435 124,974

a) Electricity 84,765 88,538 93,934 104,660

b) Gas 10,600 10,779 11,336 12,441

c) Water 5,892 6,536 7,164 7,873

6. CONSTRUCTION 483,046 522,087 566,983 617,291




HOUSEHOLD GOODS 981,731 1,047,757 1,114,256 1,187,870



COMMUNICATION 805,140 853,824 904,748 963,608

a) Land Transport 511,361 539,808 573,182 610,712

b) Water transport 58,588 60,433 62,622 64,855

c) Air transport 8,943 8,997 9,781 9,958

d) Support transport services, storage 47,187 48,407 51,005 53,479

e) Post and Tele communications 179,061 196,179 208,159 224,605


a) Monetary intermediation (Banks) 191,197 207,117 224,700 240,959

b) Insurance 27,098 27,517 28,604 29,364

c) Other financial intermediation 12,802 13,267 13,888 14,600


ACTIVITIES 495,089 516,147 538,880 563,203


DEFENCE 235,419 251,646 276,365 319,707

13. EDUCATION 156,447 167,809 181,250 206,222



SERVICES 706,426 729,554 753,518 778,400

GVA at constant basic price 6,999,363 7,429,801 7,915,384 8,475,686

Tax less subsidy 299,602 311,560 333,240 354,857

GDP at constant market price 7,298,965 7,741,361 8,248,624 8,830,544

Growth rate 6.01 6.06 6.55 7.05


47

Table 5. Sectoral Share of GDP at Constant Prices, 2012-13 to 2015-16(p)






2. FISHING 3.68 3.69 3.69 3.65




4. MANUFACTURING 19.00 19.47 20.16 20.77


b) Small scale 3.51 3.51 3.58 3.58


SUPPLY 1.45 1.42 1.42 1.47

a) Electricity 1.21 1.19 1.19 1.23

b) Gas 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.15

c) Water 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.09

6. CONSTRUCTION 6.90 7.03 7.16 7.28




HOUSEHOLD GOODS 14.03 14.10 14.08 14.02



COMMUNICATION 11.50 11.49 11.43 11.37

a) Land Transport 7.31 7.27 7.24 7.21


c) Air transport 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.12





b) Insurance 0.39 0.37 0.36 0.35



ACTIVITIES 7.07 6.95 6.81 6.64


DEFENCE 3.36 3.39 3.49 3.77

13. EDUCATION 2.24 2.26 2.29 2.43



SERVICES 10.09 9.82 9.52 9.18

GVA at constant basic price 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00


48

Table 6. Sectoral Growth Rate of GDP at Constant Prices, 2012-13 to 2015-16(p)






2. FISHING 6.18 6.36 6.38 6.19




4. MANUFACTURING 10.31 8.77 10.31 10.30


b) Small scale 8.81 6.33 8.54 7.02


SUPPLY 8.99 4.54 6.22 11.15

a) Electricity 9.69 4.45 6.09 11.42

b) Gas 5.91 1.69 5.16 9.75

c) Water 4.75 10.93 9.62 9.89

6. CONSTRUCTION 8.04 8.08 8.60 8.87




HOUSEHOLD GOODS 6.18 6.73 6.35 6.61



COMMUNICATION 6.27 6.05 5.96 6.51

a) Land Transport 5.91 5.56 6.18 6.55


c) Air transport -1.64 0.61 8.71 1.81





b) Insurance 0.61 1.55 3.95 2.66



ACTIVITIES 4.04 4.25 4.40 4.51


DEFENCE 6.53 6.89 9.82 15.68

13. EDUCATION 6.30 7.26 8.01 13.78



SERVICES 3.25 3.27 3.28 3.30

GDP at constant market price 6.01 6.06 6.55 7.05


49

Table 7. Implicit GDP and Sectoral Deflators, 2012-13 to 2015-16(p)






2. FISHING 143.50 154.30 163.12 171.57




4. MANUFACTURING 148.22 154.31 159.48 166.07


b) Small scale 157.50 164.05 171.09 177.65


SUPPLY 161.78 173.83 176.71 179.70

a) Electricity 143.55 156.24 160.34 163.70

b) Gas 325.24 341.02 334.03 333.58

c) Water 129.92 136.36 142.41 149.28

6. CONSTRUCTION 170.65 173.98 191.34 203.72




HOUSEHOLD GOODS 157.46 164.71 172.84 180.50



COMMUNICATION 154.36 157.31 165.82 175.79

a) Land Transport 180.27 183.97 195.57 209.78


c) Air transport 117.09 124.00 129.72 131.49





b) Insurance 181.56 194.92 207.58 220.65



ACTIVITIES 159.20 176.75 196.82 219.09


DEFENCE 160.05 177.74 183.36 219.27

13. EDUCATION 181.72 195.27 207.58 218.85


15.

COMMUNITY, SOCIAL AND PERSONAL

SERVICES 196.70 214.59 234.10 249.92

GDP Deflator 164.26 173.57 183.76 195.86


50

Table 8. Per capita GDP, GNI and NNI at Current Prices, 2012-13 to 2015-16(p)

2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16(p)

GDP (Mill. Tk.) 11,989,232 13,436,744 15,158,022 17,295,665

GNI (Mill. Tk.) 12,953,523 14,332,238 16,142,043 18,314,994

NNI (Mill. Tk.) 11,916,816 13,167,213 14,827,753 16,817,263

Population (Mill. No.) 153.7 155.8 157.9 159.9

Per capita GDP (In Tk.) 78,009 86,266 96,004 108,172

Per capita GNI (In Tk.) 84,283 92,015 102,236 114,547

Per capita NNI (In Tk.) 77,538 84,535 93,912 105,180

Exchange rate (Taka per US$) 79.93 77.72 77.67 78.15

Per capita GDP (In US $) 976 1,110 1,236 1,384

Per capita GNI (In US $) 1,054 1,184 1,316 1,466

Per capita NNI (In US $) 970 1,088 1,209 1,346


Table 9. Per Capita Real GDP, GNI and NNI, 2012-13 to 2015-16(p)

2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16(p)

GDP (Mill. Tk.) 7,298,965 7,741,361 8,248,624 8,830,544

GNI (Mill. Tk.) 7,886,019 8,257,285 8,784,104 9,350,976

NNI (Mill. Tk.) 7,250,206 7,581,308 8,064,160 8,578,541

Population (Mill. No.) 153.7 155.8 157.9 159.9

Per capita GDP (In Tk.) 47,491 49,701 52,243 55,229

Per capita GNI (In Tk.) 51,311 53,013 55,634 58,484

Per capita NNI (In Tk.) 47,174 48,673 51,075 53,653


51

Table 10. Gross Domestic Product of Bangladesh at Current Prices by Major Economic

Activity, 2012-13 to 2015-16(p)


1. AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY 1,487,578 1,639,682 1,764,997 1,892,720

2. FISHING 369,946 423,076 475,813 531,462


4. MANUFACTURING 1,971,272 2,232,207 2,544,831 2,922,821

5. ELECTRICITY, GAS AND WATER SUPPLY 163,812 184,006 198,682 224,585

6. CONSTRUCTION 824,321 908,336 1,084,839 1,257,537

7. WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE; REPAIR

OF MOTOR VEHICLES, MOTORCYCLES

AND PERSONAL AND HOUSEHOLD GOODS 1,545,794 1,725,752 1,925,854 2,144,067



COMMUNICATION 1,242,805 1,343,166 1,500,253 1,693,965



ACTIVITIES 788,200 912,291 1,060,609 1,233,924

12. PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION AND DEFENCE 376,782 447,278 506,741 701,031

13. EDUCATION 284,293 327,673 376,240 451,324



SERVICES 1,389,516 1,565,516 1,764,017 1,945,345

GVA at current basic price 11,412,612 12,805,005 14,449,873 16,434,126

Tax less subsidy 576,620 631,739 708,149 861,540

GDP at current market price 11,989,232 13,436,744 15,158,022 17,295,665

Net primary income from abroad 964,291 895,494 984,021 1,019,329

GNI at current market price 12,953,523 14,332,238 16,142,043 18,314,994

Consumption of fixed capital 1,036,707 1,165,025 1,314,290 1,497,732

NNI at current market price 11,916,816 13,167,213 14,827,753 16,817,263

Population (In Million) 153.7 155.8 157.9 159.9

Per capita GDP at current market price 78,009 86,266 96,004 108,172

Per capita GNI at current market price 84,283 92,015 102,236 114,547

Per capita NNI at current market price 77,538 84,535 93,912 105,180


52

Table 11. Gross Domestic Product of Bangladesh at Current Prices by Broad Industry

Sector, 2012-13 to 2015-16(p)

Broad industry sector 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16(p)

GDP

1. AGRICULTURE 1,857,524 2,062,758 2,240,810 2,424,182

2. INDUSTRY 3,154,016 3,535,349 4,067,108 4,693,740

3. SERVICES 6,401,073 7,206,899 8,141,955 9,316,204

GVA Current basic price 11,412,612 12,805,005 14,449,873 16,434,126

1. AGRICULTURE 16.28 16.11 15.51 14.75

2. INDUSTRY 27.64 27.61 28.15 28.56

3. SERVICES 56.09 56.28 56.35 56.69

GVA Current basic price 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00

1. AGRICULTURE 8.81 11.05 8.63 8.18

2. INDUSTRY 18.10 12.09 15.04 15.41

3. SERVICES 14.13 12.59 12.97 14.42

GVA Current basic price 14.28 12.20 12.85 13.73


Table 12. Sectoral Share of GDP at Current Prices by Major Economic Activity, 2012-13 to

2015-16(p)


1. Agriculture and forestry 13.03 12.81 12.21 11.52

2. Fishing 3.24 3.30 3.29 3.23

3. Mining and quarrying 1.71 1.65 1.65 1.76

4. Manufacturing 17.27 17.43 17.61 17.79

5. Electricity, gas and water supply 1.44 1.44 1.37 1.37

6. Construction 7.22 7.09 7.51 7.65

7. Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor

vehicles, motorcycles and personal and

household goods 13.54 13.48 13.33 13.05

8. Hotel and restaurants 0.99 1.02 1.03 1.04

9. Transport, storage & communication 10.89 10.49 10.38 10.31

10. Financial intermediations 3.70 3.79 3.86 3.83

11. Real estate, renting and business activities 6.91 7.12 7.34 7.51

12. Public administration and defence 3.30 3.49 3.51 4.27

13. Education 2.49 2.56 2.60 2.75

14. Health and social works 2.09 2.10 2.09 2.11

15. Community, social and personal services 12.18 12.23 12.21 11.84



53

Table 13. Sectoral Growth Rate of GDP at Current Prices by Major Economic Sector, 2012-

13 to 2015-16(p)



2. Fishing 16.24 14.36 12.47 11.70


4. Manufacturing 17.39 13.24 14.01 14.85


6. Construction 20.68 10.19 19.43 15.92


vehicles, motorcycles and personal and household

goods 12.51 11.64 11.60 11.33





12. Public administration and defence 12.48 18.71 13.29 38.34

13. Education 13.50 15.26 14.82 19.96





54

Table 14. Gross Domestic Product of Bangladesh at Constant Prices by Major Economic

Sector, 2012-13 to 2015-16(p)


1. AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY 916,565 951,513 974,802 989,677

2. FISHING 257,795 274,189 291,695 309,759


4. MANUFACTURING 1,329,941 1,446,534 1,595,680 1,760,008

5. ELECTRICITY, GAS AND WATER SUPPLY 101,257 105,853 112,435 124,974

6. CONSTRUCTION 483,046 522,087 566,983 617,291




HOUSEHOLD GOODS 981,731 1,047,757 1,114,256 1,187,870



COMMUNICATION 805,140 853,824 904,748 963,608



ACTIVITIES 495,089 516,147 538,880 563,203

12. PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION AND DEFENCE 235,419 251,646 276,365 319,707

13. EDUCATION 156,447 167,809 181,250 206,222



SERVICES 706,426 729,554 753,518 778,400


Tax less subsidy 299,602 311,560 333,240 354,857

GDP at constant market price 7,298,965 7,741,361 8,248,624 8,830,544

Net primary income from abroad 587,054 515,924 535,480 520,433

GNI at constant market price 7,886,019 8,257,285 8,784,104 9,350,976

Consumption of fixed capital 635,813 675,978 719,945 772,436

NNI at constant market price 7,250,206 7,581,308 8,064,160 8,578,541

Population (In Million) 153.7 155.8 157.9 159.9

Per capita GDP at constant market price 47,491 49,701 52,243 55,229

Per capita GNI at constant market price 51,311 53,013 55,634 58,484

Per capita NNI at constant market price 47,174 48,673 51,075 53,653


55

Table 15. Gross Domestic Product of Bangladesh at Constant Prices by Broad Industry

Sector, 2012-13 to 2015-16(p)

Broad industry sector 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16(p)

GDP

1. AGRICULTURE 1,174,360 1,225,702 1,266,498 1,299,436

2. INDUSTRY 2,030,084 2,195,739 2,407,999 2,651,202

3. SERVICES 3,794,920 4,008,360 4,240,887 4,525,048


1. AGRICULTURE 16.78 16.50 16.00 15.33

2. INDUSTRY 29.00 29.55 30.42 31.28

3. SERVICES 54.22 53.95 53.58 53.39


1. AGRICULTURE 2.46 4.37 3.33 2.60

2. INDUSTRY 9.64 8.16 9.67 10.10

3. SERVICES 5.51 5.62 5.80 6.70



Table 16. Sectoral Share of GDP at Constant Prices by Major Economic Sector, 2012-13 to

2015-16(p)



2. Fishing 3.68 3.69 3.69 3.65


4. Manufacturing 19.00 19.47 20.16 20.77


6. Construction 6.90 7.03 7.16 7.28


vehicles, motorcycles and personal and household

goods 14.03 14.10 14.08 14.02





12. Public administration and defense 3.36 3.39 3.49 3.77

13. Education 2.24 2.26 2.29 2.43





56

Table 17. Sectoral Growth Rate of GDP at Constant Prices by Major Economic Sector,

2011-12 to 2014-15(p)



2. Fishing 6.18 6.36 6.38 6.19


4. Manufacturing 10.31 8.77 10.31 10.30


6. Construction 8.04 8.08 8.60 8.87


vehicles, motorcycles and personal and

household goods 6.18 6.73 6.35 6.61





12. Public administration and defense 6.53 6.89 9.82 15.68

13. Education 6.30 7.26 8.01 13.78



GDP at constant basic price 6.14 6.15 6.54 7.08


57

Table 18: Gross Domestic Product by Expenditure Categories at Current Prices,

2012-13 to 2015-16(p) (Million Tk.)

2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16(p)

Domestic demand (1)+(2) 12,750,971 14308511 16,177,888 18,244,786

Consumption (1) 9,347,273 10,468,575 11,799,237 13,163,404

Private 8,733,888 9751386 10,980,061 12,143,948

General Govt. 613,385 717,189 819,176 1,019,456

Investment (2) 3,403,697 3,839,936 4378650.9 5081382.2

Private 2,607,486 2960024 3,344,722 3,767,549

Public 796,211 879912 1,033,929 1,313,833

Resource balance (3)-(4) -865,701 -878,059 -1,123,611 -857,399

Exports (3) 2,342,441 2551592 2,627,897 2,814,678

Imports (4) 3,208,142 3429651 3,751,508 3,672,077

Gross Domestic Exp. at market price (m..p) 11,885,270 13,430,452 15,054,277 17,387,387

Gross Domestic Product at m.p.(5) 11,989,232 13,436,744 15,158,022 17,295,664

Statistical Discrepancy (6) 103,962 6,292 103,745 -91,723

Net factor income from abroad (7) 964,291 895494 984,021 1,019,330

Gross National Income at m.p. (8)=(5)+(7) 12,953,523 14,332,238 16,142,043 18,314,994

Net current transfers from abroad (9) 53,749 63342 56,001 90,671

Gross Disposible National Income

(10)=(8)+(9) 13,007,272 14,395,580 16,198,044 18,405,665

Gross Domestic saving (11)=(5)-(1) 2,641,959 2,968,169 3,358,785 4,132,260

Gross National saving (12)=(10)-(1) 3,659,999 3,927,005 4,398,807 5,242,262

Current Account Balance (13)=(12)-(2)-(6) 152,339 80,777 -83,589 252,603

Memo items: (% of GDP)

Consumption 77.96 77.91 77.84 76.11

Private 72.85 72.57 72.44 70.21

General Govt. 5.12 5.34 5.40 5.89

Investment 28.39 28.58 28.89 29.38

Private 21.75 22.03 22.07 21.78

Public 6.64 6.55 6.82 7.60

Exports of goods & services 19.54 18.99 17.34 16.27

Imports of goods & services 26.76 25.52 24.75 21.23

Gross Domestic saving 22.04 22.09 22.16 23.89

Gross National saving 30.53 29.23 29.02 30.31

Note: p denotes provisional.

58

Table 19: Gross Domestic Product by Expenditure Categories at Constant Prices,

2012-13 to 2015-16(p) (Million Tk)

2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16(p)

Domestic demand (1)+(2) 7,490,025 7,933,480 8,438,208 9,000,563

Consumption (1) 5,282,071 5,507,931 5,839,989 6,170,876

Private 4,913,936 5,110,768 5,408,068 5,692,703

General Govt. 368,135 397,163 431,921 478,173

Investment (2) 2,207,954 2,425,549 2,598,219 2,829,687

Private 1,713,349 1,873,379 1,986,084 2,095,903

Public 494,605 552,170 612,135 733,785

Resource balance (3)-(4) -255,176 -228,952 -325,733 -173,036

Exports (3) 1,436,734 1,482,726 1,440,765 1,436,174

Imports (4) 1,691,911 1,711,678 1,766,498 1,609,210

Gross Domestic Exp. at market price(m.p.) 7234849 7704528 8112474.4 8827527.5

Gross Domestic Product at m.p. (5) 7298965 7741361 8248624 8830544

Statistical Discrepancy(6) 64,116 36,833 136,150 3,016

Net factor income from abroad(7) 587,054 515,924 535,480 520,433

Gross National Income at m.p. (8)=(5)+(7) 7,886,019 8,257,285 8,784,104 9,350,977

Net current transfers from abroad (9) 32,722 36,493 30,474 46,293

Gross Disposible National Income (10)=(8)+(9) 7,918,741 8,293,779 8,814,578 9,397,271

GDP Deflator 164.26 173.57 183.76 195.86

(Implicit deflators : base=2005-06)

Final consumption expenditure

Consumer prices index 177.74 190.80 203.03 213.32

Special Government employees Index 166.62 180.58 189.66 213.20

Gross capital formation

Other construction (Kutcha) 156.31 165.86 176.47 183.23

Wage rate Index (Agriculture) 192.72 205.54 218.55 230.64

Construction Materiel Price Index

(Building Materiel Price Index) 173.24 179.13 190.97 203.94

Planted Machinery 115.71 119.76 120.61 127.52

Transport equipment 144.39 149.53 150.59 154.62

Other capital goods 139.05 143.96

Unit price Index

Export 163.04 172.09 182.40 195.98

Import 189.62 200.37 212.37 228.19

Annual percentage change

Final consumption expenditure : 5.17 4.28 6.03 5.67

Household final consumption expenditure 5.13 4.01 5.82 5.26

General govt. final consumption expenditure 5.79 7.89 8.75 10.71

Gross capital formation 5.36 9.86 7.12 8.91

Exports of goods and services 2.45 3.20 -2.83 -0.32

Imports of goods and services 1.22 1.17 3.20 -8.90

Note: p denotes provisional.

59

Table 20. Final consumption expenditure by basic heading at current prices

ICP

codes Main Aggregates categories Basic

headings

Consumption expenditure (Million Tk.)

2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16(p)

A. Household Consumption

1.01.00.0 Food and non-alcoholic

beverages 29 4,531,838 5,056,238 5,687,635 6,285,211

1.01.10.0 Food 27 4,513,090 5,035,423 5,664,199 6,259,068

1.01.11.0 Bread and cereals 5 2,013,936 2,245,477 2,526,452 2,792,836

1.01.11.1 Rice 1,757,215 1,960,096 2,205,627 2,437,706

1.01.11.2 Other cereals, flour and other

cereal products 136,757 152,223 171,395 189,897

1.01.11.3 Bread 9,310 10,263 11,559 12,911

1.01.11.4 Other bakery products 37,170 41,164 46,852 51,661

1.01.11.5 Pasta products 73,484 81,731 91,020 100,661

1.01.12.0 Meat 5 293,244 322,871 361,685 400,534

1.01.12.1 Beef and veal 173,544 189,543 212,581 234,793

1.01.12.2 Pork - - - -

1.01.12.3 Lamb, mutton and goat 15,952 17,651 19,372 21,977

1.01.12.4 Poultry 97,009 108,201 121,311 134,419

1.01.12.5 Other meats and meat preparations 6,740 7,476 8,420 9,346

1.01.13.0 Fish and seafood 2 570,437 647,790 728,523 800,738

1.01.13.1 Fresh, chilled or frozen fish and

seafood 545,001 619,431 696,095 765,394

1.01.13.2 Preserved or processed fish and

seafood 25,437 28,359 32,429 35,344

1.01.14.0 Milk, cheese and eggs 4 242,121 269,530 302,287 334,005

1.01.14.1 Fresh milk 132,384 147,623 165,202 182,957

1.01.14.2 Preserved milk and other milk

products 42,309 46,977 52,711 58,070

1.01.14.3 Cheese 2,962 3,247 3,658 4,029

1.01.14.4 Eggs and egg-based products 64,466 71,683 80,715 88,949

1.01.15.0 Oils and fats 2 167,703 186,739 210,276 233,660

1.01.15.1 Butter and margarine 1,466 1,619 1,823 2,029

1.01.15.2 Other edible oil and fats 166,237 185,120 208,453 231,630

1.01.16.0 Fruits 2 134,974 147,516 166,462 183,411

1.01.16.1 Fresh or chilled fruit 134,917 147,453 165,391 183,333

1.01.16.2 Frozen , preserved or processed

fruit and fruit-based products 58 63 70 78

1.01.17.0 Vegetables 3 478,373 533,478 600,617 664,231

Contd.

60


ICP


headings


2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16(p)

1.01.17.1 Fresh or chilled vegetables other

than potatoes 292,263 325,903 366,922 406,877

1.01.17.2 Fresh or chilled potatoes 128,291 143,059 161,064 177,293

1.01.17.3 Frozen, preserved or processed

vegetables and vegetable-based

products 57,819 64,516 72,631 80,061

1.01.18.0 Sugar, jam ,honey, chocolate and

confectionery 3 63,856 70,958 79,885 88,711

1.01.18.1 Sugar 40,440 45,121 50,795 56,510

1.01.18.2 Jam, marmalades and honey 17,791 19,663 22,137 24,559

1.01.18.3 Chocolate, confectionery and ice

cream 5,625 6,175 6,952 7,641

1.01.19.0 Food products i.e. 1 548,446 611,064 688,013 760,942

1.01.20.0 Non-alcoholic beverage 2 18,748 20,815 23,436 26,143

1.01.21.0 Coffee, tea and cocoa 14,886 16,545 18,627 20,643

1.01.22.0 Mineral water, soft drinks, fruit

and vegetable juices 3,862 4,270 4,808 5,500

1.02.00.0 Alcoholic beverage, tobacco and

narcotics 5 191,221 200,039 222,448 245,504

1.02.10.0 Alcoholic beverages 3 - - - -

1.02.11.0 Spirits - - - -

1.02.12.0 Wine - - - -

1.02.13.0 Beer - - - -

1.02.20.0 Tobacco 1 104,511 109,356 121,140 133,971

1.02.30.0 Narcotics 1 86,710 90,683 101,308 111,533

1.03.00.0 Clothing and footwear 5 528,548 593,597 668,484 740,004

1.03.10.0 Clothing 3 470,886 529,313 596,096 660,265

1.03.11.0 Clothing materials, other articles

of clothing and clothing

accessories 36,600 41,209 46,532 51,828

1.03.12.0 Garments 431,669 485,174 546,265 604,759

1.03.14.0 Cleaning, repair and hire of

clothing 2,617 2,929 3,298 3,677

1.03.20.0 Footwear 2 57,662 64,285 72,388 79,739

1.03.21.0 Shoes and other footwear 57,132 63,692 72,221 79,103

1.03.22.0 Repair and hire of footwear 529 592 667 737

1.04.00.0 Housing, water, electricity, gas

and other fuels 7 1,434,639 1,606,272 1,808,212 2,002,683

1.04.10.0 Actual and imputed rentals for

housing 1 717,106 808,012 908,782 1,006,990

Contd.

61


ICP


headings


2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16(p)

1.04.30.0 Maintenance and repair of the

dwelling 1 150,177 166,873 187,880 207,252

1.04.40.0 Water supply and miscellaneous

services relating to the dwelling 2 10,672 11,851 13,541 14,905

1.04.41.0 Water supply 7,624 8,476 9,741 10,684

1.04.42.0 Miscellaneous services relating to

the dwelling 3,048 3,375 3,800 4,220

1.04.50.0 Electricity, gas and other fuels 3 556,685 619,536 698,009 773,536

1.04.51.0 Electricity 97,833 108,491 122,574 135,985

1.04.52.0 Gas 28,733 31,859 35,966 40,089

1.04.53.0 Other fuels 430,119 479,186 539,469 597,461

1.05.00.0 Furnishings, household

equipment and routine

household maintenance 13 285,281 319,265 360,200 398,294

1.05.10.0 Furniture and furnishings, carpets

and other floor coverings 3 61,227 68,799 77,936 87,000

1.05.11.0 Furniture and furnishings 59,093 66,425 75,265 84,032

1.05.12.0 Carpets and other floor coverings 456 511 575 647

1.05.13.0 Repair of furniture, furnishings

and floor coverings 1,679 1,862 2,096 2,321

1.05.20.0 Household textiles 1 43,863 49,071 55,448 61,076

1.05.30.0 Household appliances 3 5,510 6,108 6,978 7,676

1.05.31.0 Major household appliances

whether electricity or not 3,771 4,166 4,793 5,256

1.05.32.0 Small electricity household

appliances 1,287 1,434 1,613 1,784

1.05.33.0 Repair of household appliances 452 508 572 636

1.05.40.0 Glassware, tableware and

household utensils 1 16,466 18,256 20,555 22,753

1.05.50.0 Tools and equipment for house and

garden 2 920 1,033 1,163 1,325

1.05.51.0 Major tools and equipment 274 306 345 380

1.05.52.0 Small tools and miscellaneous

accessories 646 724 817 917

1.05.60.0 Goods and services for routine

household maintenance 3 157,294 175,999 198,120 218,465

1.05.61.0 Non-durable household goods 85,790 95,581 107,625 118,791

1.05.62.0 Domestic services and household

services 71,503 80,418 90,496 99,674

1.05.62.1 Domestic services 71,453 80,062 90,333 99,175

1.05.62.2 Household services 50 56 63 69

Contd.

62


ICP


headings


2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16(p)

1.06.00.0 Health 7 230,784 260,166 294,846 326,714

1.06.10.0 Medical products, appliances and

equipment 3 166,267 187,226 211,266 233,594

1.06.11.0 Pharmaceutical products 162,368 182,854 206,344 228,005

1.06.12.0 Other medical products 3,245 3,646 4,104 4,675

1.06.13.0 Therapeutic appliances and

equipment 653 726 818 914

1.06.20.0 Out-patient services 3 44,213 50,163 56,945 63,140

1.06.21.0 Medical services 29,617 33,745 38,469 42,397

1.06.22.0 Dental services 677 766 861 967

1.06.23.0 Paramedical services 13,919 15,652 17,614 19,776

1.06.30.0 Hospital services 1 20,304 22,776 26,635 29,980

1.07.00.0 Transport 13 372,618 408,322 463,007 512,360

1.07.10.0 Purchase of vehicles 4 64,779 70,118 78,859 87,074

1.07.11.0 Motor cars 25,590 27,969 31,700 34,742

1.07.12.0 Motor cycles 10,835 11,508 12,861 14,391

1.07.13.0 Bicycles 17,384 18,846 21,122 23,353

1.07.14.0 Animal drawn vehicles 10,970 11,796 13,177 14,587

1.07.20.0 Operation of personal transport

equipment 3 52,829 57,747 65,496 71,807

1.07.22.0 Fuels and lubricants for personal

transport equipment 20,497 22,262 25,189 27,775

1.07.23.0 Maintenance and repair of personal

transport equipment 19,441 21,316 24,192 26,455

1.07.24.0 Other services in respect of

personal transport equipment 12,891 14,169 16,114 17,577

1.07.30.0 Transport services 6 255,009 280,457 318,652 353,480

1.07.31.0 Passenger transport by railway 2,657 2,904 3,311 3,829

1.07.32.0 Passenger transport by road 200,499 219,974 249,580 277,521

1.07.33.0 Passenger transport by air 1,493 1,618 1,869 2,089

1.07.34.0 Passenger transport by sea and

inland waterway 15,433 16,820 19,833 21,486

1.07.35.0 Combined passenger transport - - - -

1.07.36.0 Other purchased transport services 34,928 39,141 44,059 48,555

1.08.00.0 Communication 3 42,203 46,558 53,705 59,713

1.08.10.0 Postal services 5,322 5,678 6,629 7,025

1.08.20.0 Telephone and telefax equipment 4,278 4,744 5,418 6,042

Contd.

63


ICP


headings


2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16(p)

1.08.20.0 Telephone and telefax services 32,603 36,136 41,657 46,646

1.09.00.0 Recreation and culture 13 59,232 66,096 74,839 82,079

1.09.10.0 Audio-visual, photographic and

information processing equipment 3 48,468 54,003 61,224 67,116


information processing equipment 26,250 29,050 33,096 36,244

1.09.14.0 Recording media 17,794 20,028 22,547 24,743

1.09.15.0 Repair of audio-visual,

photographic and information

processing equipment 4,423 4,925 5,582 6,130

1.09.20.0 Other major durables for recreation

and culture 2 133 147 166 183

1.09.21.0 Major durable for outdoor and

indoor recreation 65 72 81 89

1.09.23.0 Maintenance and repair of other

major durables for recreation and

culture 68 76 85 94

1.09.30.0 Other recreational items and

equipment, gardens and pets 3 564 630 710 782

1.09.31.0 Other recreational items and

equipments 509 569 640 706

1.09.33.0 Gardens and pets 55 61 69 76

1.09.35.0 Veterinary and other services for

pets - - - -

1.09.40.0 Recreation and cultural services 3 6,314 7,087 7,976 8,744

1.09.41.0 Recreational and sporting services 3,327 3,723 4,191 4,591

1.09.42.0 Cultural services 2,988 3,364 3,785 4,152

1.09.43.0 Games of chance - - - -

1.09.50.0 Newspapers, books and stationery 1 3,449 3,887 4,380 4,830

1.09.60.0 Package holidays 1 305 341 384 424

1.10.00.0 Education 1 365,836 417,251 471,447 522,351

1.11.00.0 Restaurants and hotels 2 201,622 227,834 256,664 283,387

1.11.10.0 Catering services 163,215 184,201 207,160 228,652

1.11.20.0 Accommodation services 38,408 43,633 49,503 54,735

1.12.00.0 Miscellaneous goods and services 10 330,972 370,266 417,915 459,266

1.12.10.0 Personal care 2 127,033 142,216 160,480 176,291

1.12.11.0 Hairdressing salon and personal

grooming establishments 21,841 24,450 27,680 30,117

1.12.12 Appliances, articles and products

for personal care 105,193 117,766 132,799 146,174

1.12.20.0 Prostitution 1 - -

Contd.

64


ICP


headings


2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16(p)

1.12.30.0 Personal effects n.e.c 2 150,541 168,621 190,083 208,951

1.12.31.0 Jewellery, clock and watch 150,098 168,125 189,524 208,336

1.12.32.0 Other personal effects 443 496 559 615

1.12.40.0 Social protection 1 - - - -

1.12.50.0 Insurance 1 7,089 7,890 8,957 9,855

1.12.60.0 Financial services n.e.c 2 - - - -

1.12.61.0 FISIM - - - -

1.12.62.0 Other financial services i.e. - - - -

1.12.70.0 Other services i.e. 1 46,309 51,540 58,395 64,169

1.13.00.0 Net purchases abroad 2 - - - -

1.13.11.1 Purchases by residential

households in the rest of the world - - - -

1.13.11.2 Purchases by non-residential

households in the economic

territory of the country - - - -

Total 110 8,574,794 9,571,905 10,779,402 11,917,565

B. NPISHs Consumption -

2.00.00.0 Individual consumption

expenditure by NPISHs 1 159094 179,481 200,659 226,383

C. Government Consumption 613,385 717,189 819,176 1,019,456

3.00.00.0 Individual consumption

expenditure by Government 21 181,922 206,189 235,510 293,089

4.00.00.0 Collective consumption

expenditure by Government 5 431,463 511,000 583,666 726,367

D. Expenditure on Capital

Formation

5.00.00.0 Gross fixed capital formation 12 3403697 3,839,936 4,378,651 5,081,382

6.00.00.0 Changes in inventories and

acquisition less disposals of

valuables 4

E. Balance of Payment

7.01.11.0 Balance of exports and imports 2 -865701 -878,059 -1123611 -857399

7.01.11.1 Exports of goods and services 2342441 2,551,592 2,627,897 2,814,678

7.01.11.2 Imports of goods and services 3208142 3,429,651 3,751,508 3,672,077

GDP at Expenditure based 155 11,885,270 13,430,452 15,054,277 17,387,387 Note: All figures are highly provisional and subject to revision, “p” denotes provisional estimates

65

Table 21. Share of Expenditure by Basic Heading at Current Prices

ICP codes Main Aggregates categories Basic

headings

Share of Total GDE

2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16(p)


1.01.00.0 Food and non-alcoholic beverages 29 38.13 37.65 37.78 36.15

1.01.10.0 Food 27 37.97 37.49 37.63 36.00

1.01.11.0 Bread and cereals 5 16.94 16.72 16.78 16.06

1.01.11.1 Rice 14.78 14.59 14.65 14.02

1.01.11.2 Other cereals, flour and other cereal

products 1.15 1.13 1.14 1.09

1.01.11.3 Bread 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.07

1.01.11.4 Other bakery products 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.30

1.01.11.5 Pasta products 0.62 0.61 0.60 0.58

1.01.12.0 Meat 5 2.47 2.40 2.40 2.30

1.01.12.1 Beef and veal 1.46 1.41 1.41 1.35

1.01.12.2 Pork - - - -

1.01.12.3 Lamb, mutton and goat 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13

1.01.12.4 Poultry 0.82 0.81 0.81 0.77

1.01.12.5 Other meats and meat preparations 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.05

1.01.13.0 Fish and seafood 2 4.80 4.82 4.84 4.61

1.01.13.1 Fresh, chilled or frozen fish and seafood 4.59 4.61 4.62 4.40

1.01.13.2 Preserved or processed fish and seafood 0.21 0.21 0.22 0.20

1.01.14.0 Milk, cheese and eggs 4 2.04 2.01 2.01 1.92

1.01.14.1 Fresh milk 1.11 1.10 1.10 1.05

1.01.14.2 Preserved milk and other milk products 0.36 0.35 0.35 0.33

1.01.14.3 Cheese 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02

1.01.14.4 Eggs and egg-based products 0.54 0.53 0.54 0.51

1.01.15.0 Oils and fats 2 1.41 1.39 1.40 1.34

1.01.15.1 Butter and margarine 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

1.01.15.2 Other edible oil and fats 1.40 1.38 1.38 1.33

1.01.16.0 Fruits 2 1.14 1.10 1.11 1.05

1.01.16.1 Fresh or chilled fruit 1.14 1.10 1.10 1.05

1.01.16.2 Frozen , preserved or processed fruit and

fruit-based products 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

1.01.17.0 Vegetables 3 4.02 3.97 3.99 3.82

1.01.17.1 Fresh or chilled vegetables other than

potatoes 2.46 2.43 2.44 2.34

1.01.17.2 Fresh or chilled potatoes 1.08 1.07 1.07 1.02

Contd.

66



headings

Share of Total GDE

2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16(p)

1.01.17.3 Frozen, preserved or processed vegetables

and vegetable-based products 0.49 0.48 0.48 0.46

1.01.18.0 Sugar, jam ,honey, chocolate and

confectionery 3 0.54 0.53 0.53 0.51

1.01.18.1 Sugar 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.33

1.01.18.2 Jam, marmalades and honey 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.14

1.01.18.3 Chocolate, confectionery and ice cream 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04

1.01.19.0 Food products i.e. 1 4.61 4.55 4.57 4.38

1.01.20.0 Non-alcoholic beverage 2 0.16 0.15 0.16 0.15

1.01.21.0 Coffee, tea and cocoa 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.12

1.01.22.0 Mineral water, soft drinks, fruit and

vegetable juices 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03

1.02.00.0 Alcoholic beverage, tobacco and

narcotics 5 1.61 1.49 1.48 1.41

1.02.10.0 Alcoholic beverages 3 - - - -

1.02.11.0 Spirits - - - -

1.02.12.0 Wine - - - -

1.02.13.0 Beer - - - -

1.02.20.0 Tobacco 1 0.88 0.81 0.80 0.77

1.02.30.0 Narcotics 1 0.73 0.68 0.67 0.64

1.03.00.0 Clothing and footwear 5 4.45 4.42 4.44 4.26

1.03.10.0 Clothing 3 3.96 3.94 3.96 3.80

1.03.11.0 Clothing materials, other articles of

clothing and clothing accessories 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.30

1.03.12.0 Garments 3.63 3.61 3.63 3.48

1.03.14.0 Cleaning, repair and hire of clothing 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02

1.03.20.0 Footwear 2 0.49 0.48 0.48 0.46

1.03.21.0 Shoes and other footwear 0.48 0.47 0.48 0.45

1.03.22.0 Repair and hire of footwear 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

1.04.00.0 Housing, water, electricity, gas and

other fuels 7 12.07 11.96 12.01 11.52

1.04.10.0 Actual and imputed rentals for housing 1 6.03 6.02 6.04 5.79

1.04.30.0 Maintenance and repair of the dwelling 1 1.26 1.24 1.25 1.19

1.04.40.0 Water supply and miscellaneous services

relating to the dwelling 2 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09

1.04.41.0 Water supply 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06

Contd.

67



headings

Share of Total GDE

2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16(p)

1.04.42.0 Miscellaneous services relating to the

dwelling 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02

1.04.50.0 Electricity, gas and other fuels 3 4.68 4.61 4.64 4.45

1.04.51.0 Electricity 0.82 0.81 0.81 0.78

1.04.52.0 Gas 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.23

1.04.53.0 Other fuels 3.62 3.57 3.58 3.44

1.05.00.0 Furnishings, household equipment and

routine household maintenance 13 2.40 2.38 2.39 2.29

1.05.10.0 Furniture and furnishings, carpets and

other floor coverings 3 0.52 0.51 0.52 0.50

1.05.11.0 Furniture and furnishings 0.50 0.49 0.50 0.48

1.05.12.0 Carpets and other floor coverings 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

1.05.13.0 Repair of furniture, furnishings and floor

coverings 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

1.05.20.0 Household textiles 1 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.35

1.05.30.0 Household appliances 3 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04

1.05.31.0 Major household appliances whether

electricity or not 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03

1.05.32.0 Small electricity household appliances 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

1.05.33.0 Repair of household appliances 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

1.05.40.0 Glassware, tableware and household

utensils 1 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.13

1.05.50.0 Tools and equipment for house and garden 2 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

1.05.51.0 Major tools and equipment 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

1.05.52.0 Small tools and miscellaneous accessories 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

1.05.60.0 Goods and services for routine household

maintenance 3 1.32 1.31 1.32 1.26

1.05.61.0 Non-durable household goods 0.72 0.71 0.71 0.68

1.05.62.0 Domestic services and household services 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.57

1.05.62.1 Domestic services 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.57

1.05.62.2 Household services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

1.06.00.0 Health 7 1.94 1.94 1.96 1.88

1.06.10.0 Medical products, appliances and

equipment 3 1.40 1.39 1.40 1.34

1.06.11.0 Pharmaceutical products 1.37 1.36 1.37 1.31

Contd.

68



headings

Share of Total GDE

2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16(p)

1.06.12.0 Other medical products 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03

1.06.13.0 Therapeutic appliances and equipment 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

1.06.20.0 Out-patient services 3 0.37 0.37 0.38 0.36

1.06.21.0 Medical services 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.24

1.06.22.0 Dental services 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

1.06.23.0 Paramedical services 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.11

1.06.30.0 Hospital services 1 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.17

1.07.00.0 Transport 13 3.14 3.04 3.08 2.95

1.07.10.0 Purchase of vehicles 4 0.55 0.52 0.52 0.50

1.07.11.0 Motor cars 0.22 0.21 0.21 0.20

1.07.12.0 Motor cycles 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.08

1.07.13.0 Bicycles 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.13

1.07.14.0 Animal drawn vehicles 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.08

1.07.20.0 Operation of personal transport equipment 3 0.44 0.43 0.44 0.41

1.07.22.0 Fuels and lubricants for personal transport

equipment 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.16

1.07.23.0 Maintenance and repair of personal

transport equipment 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.15

1.07.24.0 Other services in respect of personal

transport equipment 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.10

1.07.30.0 Transport services 6 2.15 2.09 2.12 2.03

1.07.31.0 Passenger transport by railway 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02

1.07.32.0 Passenger transport by road 1.69 1.64 1.66 1.60

1.07.33.0 Passenger transport by air 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

1.07.34.0 Passenger transport by sea and inland

waterway 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.12

1.07.35.0 Combined passenger transport - - - -

1.07.36.0 Other purchased transport services 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.28

1.08.00.0 Communication 3 0.36 0.35 0.36 0.34

1.08.10.0 Postal services 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04

1.08.20.0 Telephone and telefax equipment 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03

1.08.20.0 Telephone and telefax services 0.27 0.27 0.28 0.27

1.09.00.0 Recreation and culture 13 0.50 0.49 0.50 0.47


information processing equipment 3 0.41 0.40 0.41 0.39

Contd.

69



headings

Share of Total GDE

2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16(p)


information processing equipment 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.21

1.09.14.0 Recording media 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.14

1.09.15.0 Repair of audio-visual, photographic and

information processing equipment 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04

1.09.20.0 Other major durables for recreation and

culture 2 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

1.09.21.0 Major durable for outdoor and indoor

recreation 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

1.09.23.0 Maintenance and repair of other major

durables for recreation and culture 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

1.09.30.0 Other recreational items and equipment,

gardens and pets 3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

1.09.31.0 Other recreational items and equipments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

1.09.33.0 Gardens and pets 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

1.09.35.0 Veterinary and other services for pets - - - -

1.09.40.0 Recreation and cultural services 3 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

1.09.41.0 Recreational and sporting services 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03

1.09.42.0 Cultural services 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02

1.09.43.0 Games of chance - - - -

1.09.50.0 Newspapers, books and stationery 1 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03

1.09.60.0 Package holidays 1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

1.10.00.0 Education 1 3.08 3.11 3.13 3.00

1.11.00.0 Restaurants and hotels 2 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.63

1.11.10.0 Catering services 1.37 1.37 1.38 1.32

1.11.20.0 Accommodation services 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.31

1.12.00.0 Miscellaneous goods and services 10 2.78 2.76 2.78 2.64

1.12.10.0 Personal care 2 1.07 1.06 1.07 1.01

1.12.11.0 Hairdressing salon and personal grooming

establishments 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.17

1.12.12 Appliances, articles and products for

personal care 0.89 0.88 0.88 0.84

1.12.20.0 Prostitution 1 - - - -

1.12.30.0 Personal effects n.e.c 2 1.27 1.26 1.26 1.20

1.12.31.0 Jewellery, clock and watch 1.26 1.25 1.26 1.20

1.12.32.0 Other personal effects 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Contd.

70



headings

Share of Total GDE

2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16(p)

1.12.40.0 Social protection 1 - - - -

1.12.50.0 Insurance 1 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06

1.12.60.0 Financial services n.e.c 2 - - - -

1.12.61.0 FISIM - - - -

1.12.62.0 Other financial services i.e. - - - -

1.12.70.0 Other services i.e. 1 0.39 0.38 0.39 0.37

1.13.00.0 Net purchases abroad 2 - - - -

1.13.11.1 Purchases by residential households in the

rest of the world - - - -

1.13.11.2 Purchases by non-residential households in

the economic territory of the country - - - -

Total 110 72.15 71.27 71.60 68.54

B. NPISHs Consumption - - -

2.00.00.0 Individual consumption expenditure by

NPISHs 1 1.34 1.34 1.33 1.30

C. Government Consumption 5.34 5.44 5.86


Government 21 1.53 1.54 1.56 1.69

4.00.00.0 Collective consumption expenditure by

Government 5 3.63 3.80 3.88 4.18

D Expenditure on Capital Formation

5.00.00.0 Gross fixed capital formation 12 28.64 28.59 29.09 29.22

6.00.00.0 Changes in inventories and acquisition

less disposals of valuables - - -

E. Balance of Payment

7.01.11.0 Balance of exports and imports 2 -7.28 -6.54 -7.46 -4.93

7.01.11.1 Exports of goods and services 19.71 19.00 17.46 16.19

7.01.11.2 Imports of goods and services 26.99 25.54 24.92 21.12

GDP at Expenditure based 155 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00

Note: All figures are highly provisional and subject to revision, “p” denotes provisional estimates

71

Table 22. Percentage Change of Final Expenditure at Current Prices


headings

Percentage Change

2013-14 2014-15 2015-16(p)


1.01.00.0 Food and non-alcoholic beverages 29 11.57 12.49 10.51

1.01.10.0 Food 27 11.57 12.49 10.50

1.01.11.0 Bread and cereals 5 11.50 12.51 10.54

1.01.11.1 Rice 11.55 12.53 10.52

1.01.11.2 Other cereals, flour and other cereal products 11.31 12.59 10.80

1.01.11.3 Bread 10.24 12.63 11.70

1.01.11.4 Other bakery products 10.74 13.82 10.26

1.01.11.5 Pasta products 11.22 11.37 10.59

1.01.12.0 Meat 5 10.10 12.02 10.74

1.01.12.1 Beef and veal 9.22 12.15 10.45

1.01.12.2 Pork -

1.01.12.3 Lamb, mutton and goat 10.65 9.75 13.44

1.01.12.4 Poultry 11.54 12.12 10.81

1.01.12.5 Other meats and meat preparations 10.93 12.63 10.99

1.01.13.0 Fish and seafood 2 13.56 12.46 9.91

1.01.13.1 Fresh, chilled or frozen fish and seafood 13.66 12.38 9.96

1.01.13.2 Preserved or processed fish and seafood 11.49 14.35 8.99

1.01.14.0 Milk, cheese and eggs 4 11.32 12.15 10.49

1.01.14.1 Fresh milk 11.51 11.91 10.75

1.01.14.2 Preserved milk and other milk products 11.03 12.21 10.17

1.01.14.3 Cheese 9.64 12.66 10.13

1.01.14.4 Eggs and egg-based products 11.19 12.60 10.20

1.01.15.0 Oils and fats 2 11.35 12.60 11.12

1.01.15.1 Butter and margarine 10.40 12.60 11.34

1.01.15.2 Other edible oil and fats 11.36 12.60 11.12

1.01.16.0 Fruits 2 9.29 12.84 10.18

1.01.16.1 Fresh or chilled fruit 9.29 12.17 10.85

1.01.16.2 Frozen , preserved or processed fruit and fruit-

based products 8.28 12.62 10.96

1.01.17.0 Vegetables 3 11.52 12.59 10.59

1.01.17.1 Fresh or chilled vegetables other than potatoes 11.51 12.59 10.89

1.01.17.2 Fresh or chilled potatoes 11.51 12.59 10.08

Contd.

72



headings

Percentage Change

2013-14 2014-15 2015-16(p)

1.01.17.3 Frozen, preserved or processed vegetables and

vegetable-based products 11.58 12.58 10.23

1.01.18.0 Sugar, jam ,honey, chocolate and confectionery 3 11.12 12.58 11.05

1.01.18.1 Sugar 11.57 12.58 11.25

1.01.18.2 Jam, marmalades and honey 10.52 12.59 10.94

1.01.18.3 Chocolate, confectionery and ice cream 9.77 12.60 9.91

1.01.19.0 Food products i.e. 1 11.42 12.59 10.60

1.01.20.0 Non-alcoholic beverage 2 11.03 12.59 11.55

1.01.21.0 Coffee, tea and cocoa 11.14 12.59 10.82

1.01.22.0 Mineral water, soft drinks, fruit and vegetable

juices 10.57 12.61 14.38

1.02.00.0 Alcoholic beverage, tobacco and narcotics 5 4.61 11.20 10.36

1.02.10.0 Alcoholic beverages 3 -

1.02.11.0 Spirits -

1.02.12.0 Wine -

1.02.13.0 Beer -

1.02.20.0 Tobacco 1 4.64 10.78 10.59

1.02.30.0 Narcotics 1 4.58 11.72 10.09

1.03.00.0 Clothing and footwear 5 12.31 12.62 10.70

1.03.10.0 Clothing 3 12.41 12.62 10.76

1.03.11.0 Clothing materials, other articles of clothing

and clothing accessories 12.59 12.92 11.38

1.03.12.0 Garments 12.39 12.59 10.71

1.03.14.0 Cleaning, repair and hire of clothing 11.92 12.60 11.48

1.03.20.0 Footwear 2 11.49 12.61 10.16

1.03.21.0 Shoes and other footwear 11.48 13.39 9.53

1.03.22.0 Repair and hire of footwear 11.91 12.57 10.46

1.04.00.0 Housing, water, electricity, gas and other

fuels 7 11.96 12.57 10.75

1.04.10.0 Actual and imputed rentals for housing 1 12.68 12.47 10.81

1.04.30.0 Maintenance and repair of the dwelling 1 11.12 12.59 10.31

1.04.40.0 Water supply and miscellaneous services

relating to the dwelling 2 11.05 14.26 10.07

1.04.41.0 Water supply 11.17 14.93 9.68

Contd.

73



headings

Percentage Change

2013-14 2014-15 2015-16(p)

1.04.42.0 Miscellaneous services relating to the dwelling 10.74 12.58 11.07

1.04.50.0 Electricity, gas and other fuels 3 11.29 12.67 10.82

1.04.51.0 Electricity 10.89 12.98 10.94

1.04.52.0 Gas 10.88 12.89 11.46

1.04.53.0 Other fuels 11.41 12.58 10.75

1.05.00.0 Furnishings, household equipment and

routine household maintenance 13 11.91 12.82 10.58

1.05.10.0 Furniture and furnishings, carpets and other

floor coverings 3 12.37 13.28 11.63

1.05.11.0 Furniture and furnishings 12.41 13.31 11.65

1.05.12.0 Carpets and other floor coverings 12.07 12.57 12.53

1.05.13.0 Repair of furniture, furnishings and floor

coverings 10.93 12.53 10.72

1.05.20.0 Household textiles 1 11.87 13.00 10.15

1.05.30.0 Household appliances 3 10.86 14.24 10.00

1.05.31.0 Major household appliances whether electricity

or not 10.47 15.04 9.66

1.05.32.0 Small electricity household appliances 11.40 12.53 10.57

1.05.33.0 Repair of household appliances 12.52 12.53 11.22

1.05.40.0 Glassware, tableware and household utensils 1 10.87 12.59 10.69

1.05.50.0 Tools and equipment for house and garden 2 12.24 12.58 13.90

1.05.51.0 Major tools and equipment 11.50 12.63 10.21

1.05.52.0 Small tools and miscellaneous accessories 12.09 12.89 12.21

1.05.60.0 Goods and services for routine household

maintenance 3 11.89 12.57 10.27

1.05.61.0 Non-durable household goods 11.41 12.60 10.38

1.05.62.0 Domestic services and household services 12.47 12.53 10.14

1.05.62.1 Domestic services 12.05 12.83 9.79

1.05.62.2 Household services 11.85 12.59 10.21

1.06.00.0 Health 7 12.73 13.33 10.81

1.06.10.0 Medical products, appliances and equipment 3 12.61 12.84 10.57

1.06.11.0 Pharmaceutical products 12.62 12.85 10.50

Contd.

74



headings

Percentage Change

2013-14 2014-15 2015-16(p)

1.06.12.0 Other medical products 12.36 12.56 13.90

1.06.13.0 Therapeutic appliances and equipment 11.14 12.66 11.76

1.06.20.0 Out-patient services 3 13.46 13.52 10.88

1.06.21.0 Medical services 13.94 14.00 10.21

1.06.22.0 Dental services 13.06 12.52 12.30

1.06.23.0 Paramedical services 12.45 12.53 12.27

1.06.30.0 Hospital services 1 12.18 16.94 12.56

1.07.00.0 Transport 13 9.58 13.39 10.66

1.07.10.0 Purchase of vehicles 4 8.24 12.47 10.42

1.07.11.0 Motor cars 9.30 13.34 9.60

1.07.12.0 Motor cycles 6.21 11.76 11.89

1.07.13.0 Bicycles 8.41 12.08 10.56

1.07.14.0 Animal drawn vehicles 7.53 11.71 10.71

1.07.20.0 Operation of personal transport equipment 3 9.31 13.42 9.64

1.07.22.0 Fuels and lubricants for personal transport

equipment 8.61 13.15 10.27

1.07.23.0 Maintenance and repair of personal transport

equipment 9.64 13.50 9.35

1.07.24.0 Other services in respect of personal transport

equipment 9.91 13.73 9.08

1.07.30.0 Transport services 6 9.98 13.62 10.93

1.07.31.0 Passenger transport by railway 9.30 14.01 15.64

1.07.32.0 Passenger transport by road 9.71 13.46 11.20

1.07.33.0 Passenger transport by air 8.37 15.52 11.80

1.07.34.0 Passenger transport by sea and inland waterway 8.99 17.91 8.33

1.07.35.0 Combined passenger transport -

1.07.36.0 Other purchased transport services 12.06 12.56 10.20

1.08.00.0 Communication 3 10.32 15.35 11.19

1.08.10.0 Postal services 6.68 16.76 5.97

1.08.20.0 Telephone and telefax equipment 10.91 14.21 11.51

1.08.20.0 Telephone and telefax services 10.84 15.28 11.98

1.09.00.0 Recreation and culture 13 11.59 13.23 9.67

1.09.10.0 Audio-visual, photographic and information

processing equipment 3 11.42 13.37 9.62

Contd.

75



headings

Percentage Change

2013-14 2014-15 2015-16(p)

1.09.11.0 Audio-visual, photographic and information

processing equipment 10.67 13.92 9.51

1.09.14.0 Recording media 12.55 12.58 9.74

1.09.15.0 Repair of audio-visual, photographic and

information processing equipment 11.33 13.34 9.82

1.09.20.0 Other major durables for recreation and culture 2 10.97 12.64 10.04

1.09.21.0 Major durable for outdoor and indoor

recreation 10.69 12.68 10.15

1.09.23.0 Maintenance and repair of other major durables

for recreation and culture 11.24 12.61 9.93

1.09.30.0 Other recreational items and equipment,

gardens and pets 3 11.78 12.57 10.21

1.09.31.0 Other recreational items and equipments 11.84 12.57 10.27

1.09.33.0 Gardens and pets 11.22 12.65 9.70

1.09.35.0 Veterinary and other services for pets -

1.09.40.0 Recreation and cultural services 3 12.24 12.54 9.63

1.09.41.0 Recreational and sporting services 11.92 12.56 9.56

1.09.42.0 Cultural services 12.60 12.51 9.71

1.09.43.0 Games of chance -

1.09.50.0 Newspapers, books and stationery 1 12.70 12.69 10.29

1.09.60.0 Package holidays 1 11.99 12.59 10.20

1.10.00.0 Education 1 14.05 12.99 10.80

1.11.00.0 Restaurants and hotels 2 13.00 12.65 10.41

1.11.10.0 Catering services 12.86 12.46 10.37

1.11.20.0 Accommodation services 13.60 13.45 10.57

1.12.00.0 Miscellaneous goods and services 10 11.87 12.87 9.89

1.12.10.0 Personal care 2 11.95 12.84 9.85

1.12.11.0 Hairdressing salon and personal grooming

establishments 11.95 13.21 8.80

1.12.12 Appliances, articles and products for personal

care 11.95 12.77 10.07

1.12.20.0 Prostitution 1 -

1.12.30.0 Personal effects n.e.c 2 12.01 12.73 9.93

1.12.31.0 Jewellery, clock and watch 12.01 12.73 9.93

1.12.32.0 Other personal effects 12.09 12.73 10.01

1.12.40.0 Social protection 1 -

Contd.

76



headings

Percentage Change

2013-14 2014-15 2015-16(p)

1.12.50.0 Insurance 1 11.30 13.53 10.02

1.12.60.0 Financial services n.e.c 2 -

1.12.61.0 FISIM -

1.12.62.0 Other financial services i.e. -

1.12.70.0 Other services i.e. 1 11.30 13.30 9.89

1.13.00.0 Net purchases abroad 2 -

1.13.11.1 Purchases by residential households in the rest

of the world -

1.13.11.2 Purchases by non-residential households in the

economic territory of the country -

Total 110 11.63 12.62 10.56

B. NPISHs Consumption -


NPISHs 1 12.81 11.80 12.82

C. Government Consumption 16.92 14.22 24.45


Government 21 13.34 14.22 24.45

4.00.00.0 Collective consumption expenditure by

Government 5 18.43 14.22 24.45

D Expenditure on Capital Formation

5.00.00.0 Gross fixed capital formation 12 12.82 14.03 16.05

6.00.00.0 Changes in inventories and acquisition less

disposals of valuables - - -

E. Balance of Payment -

7.01.11.0 Balance of exports and imports 2 1.43 27.97 -23.69

7.01.11.1 Exports of goods and services 8.93 2.99 7.11

7.01.11.2 Imports of goods and services 6.90 9.38 -2.12

GDP at Expenditure based 155 13.00 12.09 15.50

Note: All figures are highly provisional and subject to revision, “p” denotes provisional estimates

77

44 Explanatory Notes

Concepts and data sources used in compiling GDP estimates

1. GDP is an aggregate measure of the total value of gross output produced within the

economic territory of a country in a specified period, before deducting allowance for

consumption of fixed capital (CFC) or depreciation. GDP is measured by using three

different approaches.

2. Provisional GDP estimates for Bangladesh are compiled using both “production” and

“expenditure” approaches. Data sources used for “production” approach include crops

statistics, extrapolation based on inter-census growth rate of population and agriculture

censuses, current industrial production survey, government budgets, other

administrative records, external trade statistics, etc.

3. Under “Production” approach/method, GDP is measured as the total value added

(value of output minus intermediate consumption) arising from production of all goods

and services sectors of the economy. It is the sum of value added of all industrial

sectors.

4. For “Expenditure” approaches data sources include HES (Household Expenditure

Survey), external trade statistics, balance of payment statistics, government accounts

and related data from non-government organisations.

5. Under “Income” approach GDP can be measured as the sum of incomes paid out to the

employees by the producers known as compensation of employees (CE), mixed income

of the self-employed persons (MI) and operating surplus (OS) of the producers and the

consumption of the fixed capital (CFC). The sum of all elements covering payments to

the factors of production is also equal to gross value added at basic prices. If indirect

taxes (IT) less subsidies on production and products are added, it would be equivalent to

GDP in market prices. For lack of required data, BBS could not compile GDP by using

this approach.

Publication schedule of production and expenditure based GDP estimates

6. “Production” and “Expenditure” based “Provisional Estimate of Annual GDP” are

released with a time lag of about nine months after the reference year (i.e. in April /

May of the current financial year). This is the 16th such publication of BBS. Annual

GDP estimates along with other national accounts aggregates are also published in the

Monthly Statistical Bulletin and other publications of BBS.

78

7. The final estimates are based on confirmed data and released within eight to nine

months after the end of the FY. The GDP estimates of Bangladesh are published as

follows:

i) Provisional GDP Estimates : Data mainly upto December of the fiscal year to be

used for estimation and publication by April-May

of the fiscal year.

ii) Final GDP Estimates : By April-May of the following fiscal year.

Qualification of data and caveats on the use of provisional GDP estimates

GDP estimates by Production Approach:

8. Provisional GDP estimates based on production approach are subject to a number of

qualifications due to non-availability of the required data. These qualifications are:

1. Agriculture and Forestry

a. Crops and horticulture Generally actual production figures of aus and jute are

used. For other major crops (aman, boro and wheat)

projected production figures are used. Estimates made by

the Ministry of Agriculture and Sample Crop Cutting by

BBS are used to validate the estimates. Minor crops are

imputed at last year’s levels and validated as and when

necessary with the production estimates available from

the most recent Household Income Expenditure Survey

(HIES).

b. Animal farming Extrapolated on the basis of inter-census growth rate

obtained from Census of Agriculture, 1983-84, Census of

Agriculture, 1996 and 2008.

c. Forest and related services Outputs projected on the basis of earlier years.

2. Fishing Based on estimates/projection provided by DOF and

validated on the basis of the most recent HIES 2005 data.

3. Mining and Quarrying Administrative data of BCIC and Petrobangla are used for

estimating most of the outputs.

4. Manufacturing Actual growth plus extrapolation based on QIIP for

medium and large industries and also QIIP for small

industries are taken into consideration.

5. Power, Gas, Water Based on targets, modified by actual production data up to

December for gas and electricity of the fiscal year.

6. Construction Based on the trend of imports of major construction

inputs and domestic production data of related industries

till December of the fiscal year.

7. Wholesale and Retail Trade Growth rate reflecting trends of imports, agricultural and

industrial production.

79

8. Hotels and Restaurants Extrapolated on the basis of Report on Integrated Annual

Survey of Non-farm Economic Activities.


Communication

Imputation of last year’s figure and selective use of

administrative data available up to December of the fiscal

year. Also the budgetary data of government transport and

communication agencies of the fiscal year are utilized.

10. Public Adm. and Defence Based on national budget allocations for the fiscal year.

11. Financial Intermediations Projections based on last year data, bank deposit and

credit up to December 2015.


Business Activities

Projections based on inter-census growth rate: Population

Census, Labour Force Surveys, Household Income and

Expenditure Survey (HIES) and estimates of housing

stock and rental income.

13. Health and Social Work Based on national budget allocations for FY2016 for

public sub-sector estimates. Projection and extrapolation

growth rates of the major components for private sub-

sector estimates.

14. Education Based on national budget allocations for the public sector.

Projection and extrapolation of growth rates for private

sub-sector.

15. Community, Social and

Personal Services

Projection and extrapolation growth rates of major

components.

Provisional estimates provide trends of economic performance. Provisional GDP

estimates are usually subject to revisions because of subsequent data changes.

Expenditure based GDP estimates

Expenditure based provisional GDP estimates are relatively imprecise in nature because of

weakness in the data base used in calculation. The estimates are also subject to limitations of

the methodologies used in estimating the components. The external trade statistics of the last

quarter of the year usually show higher trends and may not follow the previous year’s pattern.

Uncertainties in the actual expenditures during first quarter are likely to affect the volume of

public sector investments. The basis of extrapolation of the private consumption expenditures

and investments is also fragile. Owing to data limitations, no account is taken of the overall

stock changes. Consumption of NPISH and acquisition net of disposal of valuables are

assumed to be included in private consumption.

80

The provisional GDP estimates by expenditure category are compiled on the basis of the

following data sources:

1. General Government Final Consumption Expenditure: Based on national budget

allocation, government final consumption is extrapolated.

2. Private Final Consumption Expenditure: Extrapolation is done based on recent HIES

2005 data and also residual method is adopted for reconciliation.

3. Gross Fixed Capital Formation: Import of capital goods and domestic production of

materials for capital goods like construction input upto December of the fiscal year is

used.

4. Net Exports: Based on Balance of Payment (BOP) data and actual trends of imports

and exports up to December of the fiscal year.

81

Annex - II

Statistical Annex Tables

83

Table 1. Production of Major Agricultural Crops

(Lac metric ton)

Crops 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16(p)

Cereals

Aus 23.32 21.58 23.26 23.28 22.88*

Aman 127.98 128.97 130.23 131.90 131.90

Boro 187.59 187.78 190.07 191.92 191.92

Wheat 9.95 12.55 13.03 13.47 13.47

Maize 12.98 15.48 21.24 22.71 22.71

Total 361.82 366.36 377.83 383.28 382.88

Other crops

Tobacco and Beverage 5.42 5.17 5.47 5.27 5.27

Jute (Lac bales) 80.03 76.11 74.36 75.01 75.58 *

Fruits 43.00 43.78 45.45 45.88 46.37

Oilseeds 7.88 8.04 8.44 9.34 9.34

Pulses 2.35 2.65 3.52 3.78 3.78

Spices 17.51 17.22 20.43 21.79 23.99

Sugarcane 46.03 44.69 45.08 49.87 49.94

Vegetables 115.90 120.53 126.77 130.27 132.62

a. Potato 82.05 86.03 89.50 92.54 92.54

b. Other Vegetables 33.85 34.50 37.27 37.72 40.08

Others 2.29 2.30 2.33 2.47 2.46

Note: i) * Final Estimates

2) “p” denotes provisional estimates

Table 2. Production of Fish (adjusted)

(Lac metric ton)

Crops 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16(p)

Inland 24.29 25.59 27.23 28.95 30.18 31.43

Marine 5.66 5.97 6.33 6.48 6.84 7.22

Total 29.95 31.56 33.56 35.43 37.02 38.65

Note: “p” denotes provisional estimates Source: Department of Fisheries (DOF) and Household Expenditure Survey, BBS

84

Table 3. Quantum Index of Industrial Production (Large and Medium Scale

Manufacturing Industry) (Base: 2005-06 = 100)

Month 2013-14 2014-15 Growth rate

(point to point) 2015-16(p)

Growth rate

(point to point)

July 232.01 248.67 7.18 253.67 2.01

August 185.88 214.74 15.53 258.35 22.31

September 209.91 233.32 11.15 238.70 2.31

October 196.74 203.15 3.26 235.04 15.70

November 196.42 223.58 13.83 253.24 13.27

December 222.26 244.06 9.81 286.05 17.20

January 220.17 244.81 11.19

February* 209.16 226.56 8.32

March* 210.59 228.16 8.34

April* 209.73 230.37 9.84

May* 230.55 257.96 11.89

June* 240.29 277.97 15.68

Yearly 213.22 236.11 10.74

Source: Current Industrial Production Section, BBS

Note: p denote provisional estimates, * QIIP, January-June 2015-16 yet to be release

Table 4. Domestic Production of Natural Gas, Electricity and Fertilizer

Period Gas (106 cu meter) 1 Electricity (106 kWh) 2 Fertilizer (M.T) 3

2004-05 13,783 21,408 2,102,359

2005-06 14,921 22,977 1,926,672

2006-07 15,920 23,268 1,982,292

2007-08 17,014 24,953 1,581,683

2008-09 18,511 26,533 1,347,366

2009-10 19,919 29,246 1,170,119

2010-11 20,075 31,355 1,013,537

2011-12 21,056 35,117 1,047,214

2012-13 22,670 38,229 1,074,791

2013-14 23,232 38,040 976,691

2014-15 25,263 40,358 1028,157

Month Gas (106 cu meter) 1 Electricity (106 KWh) 2 Fertilizer (M.T) 3

2014-15 2015-16(p) 2014-15 2015-16(p) 2014-15 2015-16(p)

July 1,978 2,185 3,915 3860 22,334 45,233

August 1,998 2,350 3,703 4227 49,038 65,906

September 1,999 2,168 3,598 3997 89,357 66,832

October 2,008 2,345 3,361 4025 116,370 91,589

November 2,050 2,308 2,840 3243 96,668 91,109

December 2,134 2,369 2,686 3053 109,044 128,085

January 2,151 2,372 2,832 139,430

February 2,710 112,760

March* 3,600

April*

May*

June*

Source: 1 Petrobangla 2 Power Development Board, REB & DESA

3 MIS Report, Bangladesh Chemicals Industries Corporation p denote provisional, * Production of gas, electricity and fertilizer from January to June 2016 are not available

85

Table 5. Deposit and Credit Disbursement (Billion Tk.)

Financial Year Demand Deposit Time Deposit Domestic Credit

1999-2K 97.05 548.81 778.19

2000-01 108.69 648.27 910.46

2001-02 116.20 744.55 1023.97

2002-03 128.28 872.51 1106.49

2003-04 146.13 992.74 1267.86

2004-05 168.50 1160.42 1488.37

2005-06 197.40 1380.22 1784.12

2006-07 234.63 1613.36 2041.61

2007-08 265.18 1894.81 2470.49

2009-10 302.37 2300.73 2868.55

2009-10 416.22 2750.43 3378.27

2010-11 481.06 3374.19 4308.93

2011-12 510.60 4073.88 5149.73

2012-13 557.37 4799.02 5717.37

2013-14 643.44 5589.78 6379.06

2014-15 728.73 6268.00 7015.26

2015-16(Jul-Jan) 740.91 6677.40 7400.93

Source: Economic Trend, Bangladesh Bank, * indicate (July-February)

Table 6. GDP Growth Rate and Per Capita Income of SAARC Countries

Countries GDP growth rate/a Per capita income US $/b

2012 2013 2014 2011 2012 2013

Afghanistan 11.9 3.4 1.7 570 690 690

Bangladesh 6.52 6.01 6.06 928 955 1054

Bhutan 6.4 3.5 4.0 2180 2320 2330

India 5.1 6.9 7.4 1440 1530 1570

Maldives 1.3 4.7 6.8 5680 5430 5600

Nepal 4.6 3.5 5.2 610 700 730

Pakistan 3.8 3.7 4.1 1140 1250 1360

Sri Lanka 6.3 7.2 7.4 2580 2910 3170

Source: /a Asian Development Outlook 2015, /b World Development Indicators 2014

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Table 7. Export of Selected Items (Crore Tk.)

Item 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

(Jul-Jan)

Raw Jute 1,888 1,866 1,699 948 856 630

Jute goods (including Carpet) 4,750 5,200 5,989 5,315 5,351 3300

Tea 19 28 17 17 33 8

Leather 3,365 4,115 4778 3,759 3,081 1,323

Fish & Shrimp 4,149 4,758 3399 4,098 3,988 2173

Readymade Garments (including

Knit Wear & Hosiery) 96,711 122,701 128,285 146,626 156,045 95,627

Naphtha Furnace oil & Bitumen 581 975 431 134 291 -

Fertilizers 182 130 - - - -

Others (Including EPZ) 32,508 40,540 44839 52,477 56,841 34,922

Total Exports 14,4432 180,313 189,437 213,374 226,486 137,983

Source: Economic Trend, Bangladesh Bank

Table 8. Import of Selected Items (Crore Tk.)

Year 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

(Jul-Jan)

Rice 5,943 2,188 239 2701 4310 781

Wheat 7,721 4,763 5575 8685 7915 4560

Total (food) 13,664 6,951 5814 11386 12224 5341

Milk & Dairy Products 1,153 1,750 1708 2249 2409 1038

Spices 898 1,080 947 1423 1668 946

Oil seeds 736 1,420 1932 3952 2745 2418

Edible Oil 7,600 13,051 11185 13686 12223 5712

Pulses all Sorts 2,073 1,911 3373 3536 3057 1621

Sugar 4,667 9,390 5853 7014 5770 3203

Clinker 3,182 3,994 3888 4812 4632 1750

Crude Petroleum 6,350 8,387 8801 7218 6629 1572

Petroleum Products 23,060 30,484 29122 31628 26175 11749

Chemicals 8,938 9,575 10405 11644 12192 7635

Pharmaceutical Products 824 934 952 931 875 546

Fertilizers 8,817 10,907 9563 7977 9647 6064

Dyeing & Tanning Materials 2,371 2,977 3190 4185 4312 2464

Plastic and Rubber Articles 9,278 10,835 10905 13937 14333 8209

Cotton 19,115 16,601 16004 18850 17672 9038

Yarn 9,927 10,833 10849 11705 12377 7391

Textile and articles thereof 19,102 24,168 26133 27853 28569 18538

Staple fibres 1,283 3,250 3627 3833 4078 2709

Iron & Steel 14,290 17,637 18642 20654 22909 12617

Capital Machinery 16,589 15,765 14672 18122 20294 12660

Others (Including EPZ) 66,111 79,063 74763 89977 90395 57743

Total (non food) 226,364 274,012 266514 305186 302961 175621

Total Imports 240,028 280,963 272328 316572 315185 180962

Source: Economic Trend, Bangladesh Bank

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Table 9. Annual Development Programme by Sectors

(Million Tk.)

Sector FY2014 FY2015 FY2016

Budget Revised Budget Revised

Agriculture 37212 22560 27850 24690 32770

Rural Development & Institutions 66223 128860 151300 165530 181820

Water Resources 17341 20250 28310 21420 30620

Industries 23140 26030 17380 14980 14130

Power 90535 79510 92730 82760 164850

Oil, Gas & Natural Resources 22550 19090 22230 10190 19940

Transport 153736 80520 99770 86200 12738

Bridge Division - 20900 87350 52990 89210

Communication 9034 7350 7410 9850 17710

Physical Planning, Water Supply &

Housing 54545 13860 20840 13290 23960

Education & Religious Affairs 87663 78960 97060 87000 99910

Sports & Culture 2085 3140 3050 3470 15990

Health, Population and Family Welfare 42395 38160 43490 45620 53310

Mass Media 749 1080 1190 1130 1260

Social Welfare, Women’s Affairs &Youth

Development 5575 15040 22960 16160 22370

Public Administration 15240 28180 45750 59090 50920

Science & Technology 7576 6700 2305 37190 13010

Labour & Manpower 3701 3590 4130 4200 4760

Total Sectoral Allocation 639300 593780 775105 735760 849278

Total Block Allocation 19404 6220 28045 14240 120722

Grand Total 658704 600000 803150 750000 970000

Source: Planning Commission

Table 10. Monetary and Banking Statistics (Million Tk.)

Items 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(Jul-Jan)

Currency outside Banks 461,571 547,951 58,4171 675529 769084 879408 926697

Demand Deposits 416,218 481,062 510,604 557365 643443 728734 740911

Money Supply M1 879,883 1031,011 1,097,214 1,236,031 1416451 1608142 1667608

Time Deposits 2750,428 3374,189 4073,881 4,799,023 5589784 6267999 6677403

Money Supply M2 3630,311 4405,200 5171,095 6,035,054 7006235 7876141 8345011

Post Office Deposits 69,353 49,760 25,337 522 - - -

Monetary asset 3699,664 4457,960 5196,432 6,035,576 - - -

Source: Economic Trend, Bangladesh Bank, *April 2015

88

Related Publications on National Accounts Statistics

1. Brochure on National Accounts of Bangladesh, January 1995

2. Institutional sector accounts of Bangladesh for 1995- 96, (Draft), January 1999

3. Bangladesh, National Accounts Statistics: Sources and Methods (revised Estimates from

1995-96 to 2013-14 with base year 2005-06), August 2014

4. Preliminary Estimates of Gross Domestic Product May 1997

5. Preliminary Estimates of Gross Domestic Product 1998-99 and Final Estimates of Gross

Domestic Product, 1997-98

6. Preliminary Estimates of Gross Domestic Product, 1999-2000 and Final Estimates of Gross

Domestic Product, 1998-99

7. National Accounts Statistics (Gross Domestic Product, 2000-2001)

8. National Accounts Statistics (Preliminary Estimates of GDP, 2001-2002)

9. National Accounts Statistics (Provisional Estimates of GDP, 2014-15 and Final Estimates

of GDP, 2013-14)

10. National Accounts Statistics (Provisional Estimates of GDP, 2013-14 and Final Estimates

of GDP, 2012-13)

11. National Accounts Statistics (Preliminary Estimates of GDP, 2012-13 and Final Estimates

of GDP, 2011-12)

12. Estimates of Investment: Methods and Data Sources, May 2002

13. Proceeding of the Workshop-cum-Expert Consultation on National Accounts Compilation

of Bangladesh, January 1994.

14. Report of the National Income Commission, 1990

15. Report of the Task Force on the Review of National Accounts of BBS, June 1996

16. Sources and Methods of Indices (National Accounts Deflators), May 1997

17. System of National Accounts, 2008 (UN Publication)

18. Twenty Years of National Accounting of Bangladesh (1972-92), July 1993

19. Provisional Estimates of Gross Regional Product 1995-96 to 1999-2000

Available for sale at:

1. BBS Publication Section,

Parishankhan Bhaban (Ground Floor)

E-27/A, Agargaon, Dhaka-1207

Phone: 91133383, 9137775, 9138636-7, 9133383-5, ext. 1010

2. BBS Sales Centre, Ansari Building (1st Floor)

14/2, Topkhana Road, Dhaka-1000

National Accounts data are also available in BBS website: http://www.bbs.gov.bd

89

Persons Involved in Preparation of the Report

1. Mr. Abul Kalam Azad, Director, National Accounting Wing, BBS

2. Mr. Ziauddin Ahmed, Joint Director, National Accounting Wing, BBS

3. Mr. Md. Mahbubur Rahman, Deputy Director, National Accounting Wing, BBS

4. Mr. Md. Shahabuddin Sarker, Deputy Director, National Accounting Wing, BBS

5. Mr. Abdul Khaleque, Deputy Director, National Accounting Wing, BBS

6. Mr. Tufail Ahmed, Deputy Director, National Accounting Wing, BBS

7. Ms. Salma Hasnayen, Deputy Director, National Accounting Wing, BBS

8. Mr. Md. Rafiqul Islam, Deputy Director, National Accounting Wing, BBS

9. Mr. Mohiuddin Ahmed, Deputy Director, National Accounting Wing, BBS

10. Ms. Israt Jahan Nasrin, Statistical Officer, BBS

11. Mr. Md. Nazmul Hoque, Statistical Officer, BBS

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