NAPPFAST: A tool for risk analysis of exotic plant pests

Roger Magarey

Presented at the3rd Annual Meeting of Midwest Weather Working Group

Charlotte Convention Center, Charlotte, NCFriday, August 6, 2010

Dan Borchert, APHIS – modelingJessica Engle, NCSU – modelingJoe Russo, ZedX - cyberinfrastructure

Contributors

• APHIS-PPQ CAPS • USDA Farm Bill Section 10201• CSREES/NIFA NRI/AFRI

3

NAPPFAST System Overview

• Internet-based Pest Prediction System• Biological model (Degree day, Disease Infection,

or Multi-function) templates paired with large climate databases

• Produce geo-referenced output maps• Designed to assist pest

survey detection efforts:

predict when and where

What models are used to make risk maps/ products in NAPPFAST?

What types of weather-based risk products are available?

How can we get products to users?

5

NAPPFAST

• What models are used to make risk maps/products in NAPPFAST?– Degree Day– Infection – Generic– Climate matching– Pathway risk models

6

P. japonica general information

• Univoltine- one generation per year• Overwinters typically as a third instar larvae

Frequency of Occurrence (30year)

0     6

6     12

12     18

18     24

24     30

Search: Value = ‘Overwinter – Adult’

Insect Stage (5-08 – 5-14)

Map Updated: 7/27/2010

Frequency of Occurrence (30year)

0     6

6     12

12     18

18     24

24     30

Adult beetles begin to emerge in central NC 3rd week in May (Fleming 1972)

Search: Value = ‘Overwinter – Adult’

Insect Stage (5-15 – 5-21)

Map Updated: 7/27/2010

Frequency of Occurrence (30year)

0     6

6     12

12     18

18     24

24     30

Beetles appear in central Virginia in last week of May- first week of June.(Fleming 1972)

Insect Stage (5-22 – 5-31)

Search: Value = ‘Overwinter – Adult’Map Updated: 7/27/2010

Frequency of Occurrence (30year)

0     6

6     12

12     18

18     24

24     30

Mountainous Eastern TN beetles appear first week of June (Fleming 1972)

Beetles appear in central Virginia in last week of May- first week of June.(Fleming 1972)

Insect Stage (6-01 – 6-07)

Search: Value = ‘Overwinter – Adult’Map Updated: 7/27/2010

Frequency of Occurrence (30year)

0     6

6     12

12     18

18     24

24     30

Adult beetles begin to emerge in Maryland & Delaware mid June (Fleming 1972)

Insect Stage (6-08 – 6-14)

Search: Value = ‘Overwinter – Adult’Map Updated: 7/27/2010

Frequency of Occurrence (30year)

0     6

6     12

12     18

18     24

24     30

Adult beetles begin to emerge in Southern NJ and Southeastern PA in 3rd week of June (Fleming 1972)

Insect Stage (6-15 – 6-21)

Search: Value = ‘Overwinter – Adult’Map Updated: 7/27/2010

Frequency of Occurrence (30year)

0     6

6     12

12     18

18     24

24     30

Emergence in mountainous regions of NJ and PA 1-2 weeks later (Fleming 1972)

Emergence in Southeastern NY, CT, RI and Southern MA in last week of June (Fleming 1972)

Insect Stage (6-22 – 6-30)

Search: Value = ‘Overwinter – Adult’Map Updated: 7/27/2010

Frequency of Occurrence (30year)

0     6

6     12

12     18

18     24

24     30

Emergence begins in Southern NH and VT in first week of July (Fleming 1972)

Insect Stage (7-01 – 7-07)

Search: Value = ‘Overwinter – Adult’Map Updated: 7/27/2010

Frequency of Occurrence (30year)

0     6

6     12

12     18

18     24

24     30

Insect Stage (7-08 – 7-14)

Search: Value = ‘Overwinter – Adult’Map Updated: 7/27/2010

Frequency of Occurrence (30year)

0     6

6     12

12     18

18     24

24     30

Insect Stage (7-15 – 7-21)

Search: Value = ‘Overwinter – Adult’Map Updated: 7/27/2010

20

Infection is often the rate limiting step in an epidemic because it requires moisture which is often limited in terrestrial environments

Infection can be modeled by a temperature /moisture response function - a mathematical function that describes the response of an organism to temperature and moisture

Pathogen infection model

21

Pathogen Infection Parameters

• Tmin = Min. temperature for infection, oC,

• Tmax = Max. temperature for infection, oC,

• Topt = Opt. temperature for infection, oC,

• Wmin = Minimum wetness duration requirement, h

Parameters established in laboratory studies

22

Citrus black spot, Guignardia citricarpa

CBS is primarily a disease of fruit (Kotzé, 2000), although leaves and stems are also infected (CABI, 2002). All commercially grown Citrus spp. are susceptible to CBS, with the exception of sour orange (C. aurantium L.) and its hybrids.

SUBJECT: Confirmation of Citrus Black Spot (Guignardia citricapra) in Florida

TO: STATE AND TERRITORY AGRICULTURAL REGULATORY OFFICIALS

On April 7, 2010, the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS), Plant Protection and Quarantine (PPQ) confirmed the identification of Citrus Black Spot (Guignardia citricapra; CBS) on citrus fruit from Collier County, Florida. The CBS-infected fruit samples were collected from commercial Valencia orange groves. This is the first confirmation of CBS in the United States.

Breaking News

24

Model Parameters

In Florida, the months of April, May and June represent the first three months after fruit set and the period of greatest fruit susceptibility (Mosser and Aerts, 2007; Kotze, 1981). We chose to use a more extensive 5 month window of susceptibility.

25

Guignardia citricarpa

Climate Databases

What models are used to make risk maps/ products in NAPPFAST?

What types of risk products are available?

How can we get products to users?

InterpretationSubject matter

expertsGovernment

Regulatory toolsRegulatory officials

University Industry

Analysis

Salesdata GPDDPhytosanitary Foreign cargo DataNth AmericanStation

Global 32kgrid

SQLData

IntegrationMultiple systems

DisseminationStakeholders/Users IndustryPublicPolicy

Modified from Magarey et al. Bioscience 2009 v59 p 880

GBIF

GIS

Day degree

Pathway

Climate matching

Venn

InfectionEmpirical

Risk analysts/ Researcher

Generic Cyberinfrastructure Interface

ConfidentialSlide courtesy Joe Russo, Copyright © 2009 ZedX Inc.

Navigation Map

Data Tree

Action Bar

Role 2

Tool Details

Role 1Admin

Tools

Tool Calendar

Product Tree

(Collapsible)

NAPPFAST– Exotic Pest Targeting Tool

Planning Risk Maps for Helicoverpa armigera

NAPPFAST– Exotic Pest Targeting Tool

Weekly Phenology Maps for Cactoblastis cactorum

Conclusions

NAPPFAST Modeling tools include day degree models, infection models, empirical and climate matching

NAPPFAST is an emerging cyberinfrastructure for exotic pest risk analysis and modeling.

NAPPFAST has spatial products that include planning risk maps, phenology models and aerial imagery.

More information see www.nappfast.org