MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013

WP 8

MONITORING & FORECASTINGCENTRE for North-West Shelf

MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – Cork /16-17 April 2013

Work Package Main Objectives

MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013

Main objectives: • Developments for two Atlantic Margin Model (AMM) releases during the project

• AMM3.0• Development from start of project• Operational implementation was planned for November 2013

• Likely to be delayed to early 2014 due to critical operational changes• Will be used in reanalysis

• AMM4.0 • Implementation originally planned for May 2014

• May be delayed beyond end of project

• Development of multi-model uncertainty estimates• Development from May 2012• Implementation planned for Apr 2014

Partnership

MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013

WP Leadership being handed over from Adrian Hines to Ed

Blockley with effect from Annual MeetingWP8 Lead

Met Office

Met Office

Met Office

System Evolution

MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013

• Objectives and achievements: • AMM3.0 development:

• Multi-model ensemble development:• V0 in place for SST, SSS, surface currents and transports• V1 under development

• Main difficulties encountered• Development of components to contribute to AMM3.0 has gone smoothly…• ….but next need to bring these together into the upgrade package

Item Status

Bulk formulae Development complete

Boundary scheme Baltic outflow from BAL MFC in testing

River data from E-HYPE In testing

Update to new NOOS bathymetry

Waiting for EMODNET

Item Status

Vertical coordinates Development complete

Diffusion schemes update

Smagorinsky coded coded; Griffies in testing

PPM vert. / horiz. tracer advection

In testing

Improve ERSEM parameterisations

Zooplankton prey selectivity tested

NEMOVAR (SST only) Technical tests complete

Production Evolution

MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013

• Objectives• No product changes planned during first year of project• Only planned product update is:

• Upgrade vertical resolution of the hourly products• Planned for November 2013

• Minor changes• Product name changes changes for V3 release • netCDF4 being produced, with post-processing to netCDF3 • DirectGetFile dropped in favour of new FTP

Improvements: use of bulk forcing (Alex Arnold, Met Office)

• Forcing using fluxes computed in NWP model being replaced by use of CORE bulk formulae

• Leads to cooler SSTs• More scope for tuning

Differences from OSTIA SST

Annual mean for 2011

Direct Forcing

CORE bulk

formulae

Improvements: new stretching function for s-coordinates (John Siddorn / Rachel Furner, Met Office)

• New stretching function (Siddorn and Furner, 2013) to allow:– User specified top and bottom cell height – Flexibility to focus resolution near surface or seabed

Increases diurnal temperature range in idealised flux experiment

(% increase)/100

Reduces horizontal pressure gradient errors for an idealised seamount case with a

realistic temperature stratification

Original New

Improvements: testing of vertical mixing schemes (Maria Luneva, NOC)

Distance (km)

Scanfish data

Canuto

Kantha-Clayson

Four different parameterizations of vertical mixing have been tested: - Turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) scheme - Generic Length Scale scheme with (k-ε) closure based on

- Canuto (2001) structural functions - Kantha-Clayson, 1994 (KC94) - KC94 with Kantha 2004 constants

Two year simulations compared with SCANFISH obs for 2001 in the North Sea

Conclusions: - Standard TKE scheme is too diffusive - Canuto (2001) gives better pycnocline depth, but also very diffusive. - (k-ε) with KC94 gives sharper thermocline and better structure of horizontal fronts.

Scanfish sections

Isotherms along a Scanfish section

Improvements: ERSEM developments (Momme Butenschon, PML)

ERSEM+SMP

ERSEM

Developments implemented in ERSEM• Modelling the Stoichiometric Modulation of

Predation (SMP, Mitra 2006)• Modelling of zooplankton efficiency

depending on nutritional status of prey • Allows improved modelling of top-down

control of phytoplankton community succession

• Successful representation of late summer blooms absent in previous model formulations

• Implementation of the Bacteria-OM submodel (Polimene et al., 2006)

• Sub-model to represent the cycling of organic matter through bacteria

• Enables explicit modelling of bacterial growth efficiency and the microbial carbon pump

Improvements: use of NEMOVAR for SST assimilation (James While, Met Office)

• Data assimilation has been upgraded to the latest version of the NEMOVAR 3D-VAR system

• A new parameterised error covariance scheme has been developed– Currently undergoing testing– Limits the spreading of information across

temperature and salinity fronts– Parameterised correlation length scales can

change daily, allowing some flow dependence • Unlike statistically estimated correlations

Correlation from NMC method + localisation

Parameterised Correlation

Improvements: multi-model ensemble (MME) (Inga Golbeck / Frank Janssen, BSH)

• First version (V0) of MME in place for SST, SSS, surface currents and transports

SST North Sea

Ensemble mean

Standard deviation

Ensemble mean of NOOS

Color of arrows: Number of models included in the calculation of the MME

Color of transects: Variation coefficient calculated for each transect (Brown 1998)

CV ≤ 1 1 < CV ≤ 3 CV >3

Surface currents: Progressive Vector Diagrams (PVD)

First period summary and next steps

MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013

First year progress• Good progress with developments targeted for inclusion in AMM3.0

• Most expected developments on target for inclusion• Also good progress with development of multi-model ensemble

• V0 running• V1 preparations well advanced

First year issues• AMM3.0 implementation to be delayed due to operational change constraints

• Knock-on impact on subsequent implementations

Second year priorities• Bring together component changes to build AMM3.0

• Operational implementation in early 2014• Use in reanalysis later this year

• On-going development of multi-model ensemble• Implementation of V1 in April 2014