murphy oil corporation 2012 annual shareholders presentation
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TRANSCRIPT
M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R AT I O N
Annual Meeting of
Shareholders
El Dorado, Arkansas
May 9, 2012
2M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
A Growing Value Business
David M. Wood
President and Chief Executive Officer
May 9, 2012
3M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
Agenda
External Environment
Murphy Portfolio Upstream
Downstream
Conclusions
4M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
World Population
OECD Non-OECD
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
World Gross Domestic Product
OECD Non-OECD
Billions 2005 US $
Growing Population Needs Energy
Source: EIA – International Energy Outlook 2011
Annual Percentage Change 2010-2035OECD: 0.42%Non-OECD: 0.91%
Growth: 2.3%
Growth: 4.6%
Millions
5M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
World Energy Use by Fuel Type
Source: EIA – International Energy Outlook 2011
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Renewables
Quadrillion btu
Coal
Natural Gas
Liquids
Nuclear
ProjectionHistory
28%
55%
27%
52%
6M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
Global Crude Oil Supply/Demand
Source: EIA – Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Early Release
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
World Liquids Consumption
Transportation OECD China
India Other Non-OECD Oil Price
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
World Liquids Production
OPEC Non-OPEC
OPEC
Non-OPEC
Oil Price ($/bbl) MMBOEPDMMBOEPD
7M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
Global LNG Outlook
Source: Wood Mackenzie
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
LNG Demand in Asia
China
India
Japan
S. Korea
BCFPD
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
Global LNG Supply/DemandBCFPD
Probable
Under Construction
Operational Capacity
8M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
Historical Prices
Global demand continues to drives oil prices
Gas remains a regional game
US over-supplied with gas price de-linked to oil
-
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
0
30
60
90
120
150
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Brent
WTI
HH
Asian LNG
WTI
Brent
Asian LNG
Henry Hub
$/bbl $/mmbtu
9M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
Historical Commodity Prices
0
30
60
90
120
150
0
50
100
150
200
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
WTI, $/bbl
Gold, $/10oz
USD Index (Jan 1997 = 100)
U.S. Dollar IndexWTI Oil Prices & Gold Prices$/bbl or $/10oz
Source: EIA, Federal Reserve
10M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
US Transportation
Source: AEO 2012 ; STEO 2012 - EIA
VMT have declined 140 billion miles from 2007 to 2011
Gasoline consumption declined 6% over same period
Fleet efficiency improving
7.5
8
8.5
9
9.5
10
2,500
2,550
2,600
2,650
2,700
2,750
2,800
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Light Duty Vehicle Miles Travelled
Motor Gasoline Consumed
Billion miles mmbpd
11M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
US Retail Prices v. WTI
Microsoft Office PowerPoint 2007.lnk
Sources: EIA
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
WTI US Retail Gasoline
$/barrel $/gallon
12M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
Microsoft Office PowerPoint 2007.lnk
US $/galGasoline Cost $3.29
Fuel Taxes $0.50Retail Price $3.79
Sources: EIA, Reuters
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00$/gal Gasoline Prices US v. China
China US
Global Retail Prices
UK $/galGasoline Cost $3.71
Fuel Taxes $5.00Retail Price $8.71
China $/galGasoline Cost $5.39
Fuel Taxes $0.60Retail Price $5.99
13M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
Observations for 2012
What has not changed: Oil, Natural Gas and Coal – the key energy supplies
OPEC role
Non OECD demand key driver
Climate debate
US $ as world currency
Europe
What has changed:
Global LNG
N America gas
US Energy Policy
14M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
UPSTREAM
15M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
Upstream
Global Footprint Produce in 5 countries; explore in 10 countries
Oil weighted production (73 %); exploration focus (75%)
Value gas – sought Making the hard call on N Am dry gas – choke back
Expansion in Malaysia gas
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
2012 2013 2014 2015
Production - MBOEPD
Oil &
Oil Indexed: 73% 77% 81% 80%20%
17%
37%
26%
Ongoing Projects
New Projects
Exploration
Base
Capital 2012 – 2015
M’sia
US
Canada
16M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
Oil Weighted Long Range Plan
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
2012 2013 2014 2015
MB
OEP
D
193 200
250260
Oil
NA Dry GasOil-Indexed SK Gas
73% Oil-Weighted
80% Oil-Weighted
17M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
Montney – Quality Gas Resource
Facilities- On Time- On Budget
First Quartile Well Costs
Opex = $ 0.65/MCF
DD&A = $2.50/MCF
EUR = 4.0 BCF/ Well
Total Resource = 1,700 - 3,500 Bcf
X AECO Price
T77
T78
T79
T76
T75
T74
T73
R19 R18 R17 R16 R15 R14 R13R20R21
0 6Miles
Tupper
Groundbirch
Alb
erta
Bri
tish
Co
lum
bia
Brassey
Murphy Acreage
– 156,000 Acres
Tupper West
Sundown
18M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
0 10 mi
NUECES
CATARINA
TILDEN
KARNES
N TILDEN
Eagle Ford – Premier Resource
Murphy Oil Well
Murphy Gas Well
Drilled
216,000 Net Acres 60 % Oil
61 Producing Wells
10 Drilling Rigs
13 Facilities
2 Dedicated Frac Crews
42 MMBOE Booked
Murphy Acreage
Oil
Oil Condensate
Gas
19M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
EFS Production
2012 Guidance:
15,450 BOEPD
December Rate:
25,275 BOEPD0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Net
MB
OEP
D
81%
13%
6%
2012 Production Mix
Oil Associated Gas Dry Gas
0
10
20
30
40
50
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net
MB
OEP
DProduction
20M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
CATARINA
NUECES
KARNES
Flint Hills
Crude Oil Pipeline
Crude Oil Trucks
Gas Pipeline
Refinery
Crude Oil Truck Station
Murphy Acreage
Energy Transfer Pipeline
Current EFS Net Back Prices (4/27/12)
Oil $/Bbl Rich Gas $/McfKarnes 113.49 5.55Tilden 115.33 5.55Catarina 116.04 5.25
Harbor Island Barge Terminal
EFS Oil & Gas Marketing
ValeroTILDEN
0 10 mi
21M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
Eagle Ford Summary
-
10
20
30
40
50
2012 2013 2014 2015
Production – MBOEPD
81% 86% 86% 86%
Karnes
Other
Tilden
Catarina
Oil:
$2.0 Billion Business, High Returns
EURs Increasing
D&C Costs Improving
Moving from 10 to 12 Rigs
Early Days for Technology
275 MMBOE Resource
Significant DownspacingPotential
22M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
CADOTTE NORTH
WESTEAST
SOUTH
SOUTH
HARMON
CLIFFDALE
CENTRAL
Murphy 100% Lands
Murphy 50% W.I. Lands
Canada Seal Lake
Polymer
Thermal 70 HZ Wells in 2012
Increase Production by 20%
to 8,500 BOPD
Successful Polymer Pilot
Successful 16 Well Strat
Program
Cyclic Steam Pilot- Q4 2012
Vertical Steam Pilot – Q3
2013
Successful Strat Wells CSS Pilot
VSD Pilot
23M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Oct
-10
No
v-1
0
Dec
-10
Jan
-11
Feb
-11
Mar
-11
Ap
r-1
1
May
-11
Jun
-11
Jul-
11
Au
g-1
1
Sep
-11
Oct
-11
No
v-1
1
Dec
-11
Jan
-12
Feb
-12
Mar
-12
Pilot Oil Production - BOPD
Start of PolymerInjection
Targeted range of response
Seal
Polymer Update
Well PadProducerInjector
Injection Started Oct 2010
Response July 2011
Incremental Production -380 BOPD from 4 Wells
Commercial Polymer Project Phase 1: Q2 2012
Phase 2: Q4 2012
24M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
Seal Resources
YE11 Resource
EUR Range
Identified STOIIP
Type of Recovery
STOIIP 5,850 MMSTB
Primary
2,555
MMSTB
200-300
MMSTB
210
MMSTB
Polymer
500-700
MMSTB
45-75
MMSTB
45
MMSTB
Thermal
1,000-1300
MMSTB
190-370
MMSTB
110
MMSTB
Polymer / Thermal
TBD
1,295 – 1,795
MMSTB
Total
5,850
MMSTB
485-1195
MMSTB
365
MMSTB
50-450
MMSTB
Reserve Group Focus- Resource Increased by 105%
Current Proven Reserves: 20 MMBOE
Focus on Polymer and Thermal EOR
25M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
Southern Alberta - New Play
150,000 Acres
Low Entry Costs
Current Focus Kanai -3 Forks
2012 Plan Lower Costs
Enhanced Fracs
Longer Laterals
Testing
350 BOPD IPCum Prod:
24,000 BBLs
26M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
0 6Miles
Muskwa - New Area
Targeting the Muskwa
Shale
Equivalent to Duvernay Fm
Total Acres to Date:
168,000
Low Entry Cost
Murphy 4-1-109 Well
IP = 150 BOPD
Put Well on Pump
Evaluation
Murphy Well
Murphy Lands
Competitor Well
4 - 1 – 109 Well
27M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
International and Offshore
28M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
International/Offshore – Pillar for Growth
$1.7 Billion Spend Per Year
Malaysia – Attractive for Continued Investment
Back to Work in GOM
Malaysia FLNG –Significant New Project
-
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
2012 2013 2014 2015
Production – MBOEPD
33%
27%
40%
New
Projects
Exploration
Base
Capital 2012 – 2015
Sabah
Other
GoM
Srwk
89% 90 % 92% 90%
Oil &Oil Indexed:
29M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
Sarawak Oil Projects
Moving Forward
Sanctioned Oil Projects Resource Levels Net MMBOE
First Oil Status
Serendah & Patricia 25 Q2 2013 Construction and Drilling
South Acis 23 Q3 2013 Construction
Permas & Endau 12 Q4 2013 FEED Work
Utilizes Existing Infrastructure
Progressing on Schedule
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027
Net
MB
OP
D
Future Fields
Existing
30M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
Long Term Oil Indexed Growth
Malaysia FLNG Block H
De-Risked by Recent Exploration Success
Award FEED Q3 2012
Sanction 2013
First Gas Planned 2016/17
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040
MM
CFD
Murphy Net Entitlement = ~1,150 BCF
Gross Risked Resources: ~2,200 BCF
Discovered
910 BCF
Drill Ready Prospects
635 BCF
Discovered
425 BCF
Leads
260 BCF
31M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
Dalmatian Development
3 Well Subsea Development to Petronius
55 MMBOE Recoverable Resource
40% Oil Mix
Robust Economics
Path Forward DOCD Approval June 2012
Project Sanction June 2012
Completions Mid 2013
First Oil Q1 2015
0
5
10
15
20
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029
Dalmatian Gross, MBOEPD
32M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
Murphy 60% W.I.
Existing Completions Exceeding Expectations
3 Well Subsea Development 16-27 MMBOE Recoverable Spud 1st Well Q2 2013 1st Oil Q2 2015
Medusa Subsea Development
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Net MBOEPD
33M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
2012-13 Exploration Program
Technically Grounded, Value Driven
Up to 30 Wells; Oil / LNG-Scale Gas Focus
Leveraging Operational Expertise – Partner of Choice
Balance - Frontier & Lower Risk Proven Plays
5 Billion BOE Gross; 500 Million BOE Risked Net 2012-2013 Portfolio
GOM2-4 Wells
Iraq2-4 Wells
Brunei2-5 Wells
Australia1-3 Wells
Malaysia5-7 Wells
Cameroon1-2 Wells
Indonesia2 Wells
Congo1-3 Wells
34M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
MALAYSIA Block H/P
BRUNEI CA-1
CA-2
IRAQC. Dohuk &
Baranan
CAMEROON Ntem
CONGO MPN/MPS
AUSTRALIAWA-423-P
ACP/36
INDONESIA Semai II
GOM Multiple
Discovery
Exploration Program
Eupheme-1
Rig ContractedExact Timing
TBD
Block H
Gali
MPS
MPN
NTP/80
Block H
Wells Shown by Spud Date
Jagus
East-1
Julong
East-1
Dalmatian
South
Linnava-1
Bassett Deep
Buluh-1
Bunga Lili-1
MPN
Block P
Semai II
Baranan-1
2012 2013
35M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
Reserves – Continue to Grow & Replace
YE 2009 YE 2010 YE 2011
Contingent (Unconventional)
Contingent (Conventional)
Possible
Probable
Proved Reserves
3.4 BBOE
Deepwater27%
Conventional17%
Syncrude24%
Resource Play28%
Heavy Oil4%
Total Proved – 534 MMBOE
65% Oil
65% North America
67% Developed
220% Replacement
3.3 BBOE
2.8 BBOE
36M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
Low Risk Non-Proved Resource
YE 2009 YE 2010 YE 2011
Contingent (Unconventional)
Contingent (Conventional)
Possible
Probable
Proved Reserves
3.4 BBOE
Msia Oil11%
Msia Gas10%North America
Dry Gas25%
EFS Oil& Assoc Gas
15%
Total Non-Proved – 2.9 BBOE
3.3 BBOE
2.8 BBOE
Seal12%
Syncrude11%
Other Oil Projects
16%
75% Oil Weighted
54% Low Risk – Existing Development Areas
38% NA Onshore Oil
37M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
DOWNSTREAM
38M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
Refining
39M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
Ethanol Plants
HANKINSON, ND
Running at 120+ mmgpy Rates Best-in-Class Production
Increasing to 135+ mmgpy
Co-product Development
Advantaged by Corn Supply
HEREFORD, TX
Running at 104+ mmgpy Rates
115+ mmgpy Target in 2013
Full 12 Months Operations
Advantaged by Local Demand
40M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
US Marketing
41M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
Murphy USA Overview
Opened First Retail Store in 1996
Operate 1,137 sites in 23 states 998 Murphy USAs on Walmart Lots
139 Murphy Express Stores
Provide 3% of Total US Retail Gasoline (5% in Mkt Area)
We serve ~1.6 Million Customers Every Day
Historically Strong Growth Model 91% Fee-owned Real Estate
100% Company Operated
1,175*
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Operating Sites
*By End 2012
42M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
Murphy USA
Low Price, High Volume Fuel Seller
Low Cost Fuel Supplier
Low Cost Operator
Low Price Niche Merchandising
Relationship with #1 Retailer Walmart
Attractive Business
43M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
Murphy USA’s Model
Booz & Company March 2011
Oil FieldsRefineries/ Commodity
MarketsCustomer
Wholesale
Marketing Terminal
Product Supply & Primary
Distribution
Crude Pipeline/
Vessel
Secondary Distribution/ Trucking
44M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
OKTN
0% - 2%
3% - 6%
7% - 14%
US Market Share ~3%(5% Mkt Area)
2011 Gasoline Market Share
Source: EIA, Internal Calculations
45M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N Source: Company Reports
$ Billion
High Revenue Business
2011
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Barnes & Noble
Nordstrom Starbucks Murphy USA Southwest
46M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
Fuel Volume vs. Publicly-Traded Peers
Source: Company Reports
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Murphy USA
Casey's Delek Couche Tard
Pantry Susser Sunoco Valero Tesoro Marathon
2011 Fuel Sales/Store/Month (000 Gallons)
47M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
Low Operating Expenses
Source: NACs and Internal Data
$12.6$8.6
$2.0 $1.0 $1.0$4.8
$30.2
$26.7
$8.5
$3.7 $3.6$1.8
$7.5
$51.8
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
Wages Maintenance Supplies Total
2011 Murphy USA vs. NACS Top Quartile Operating Expenses Per Store Month ($000)
Murphy USA NACs
48M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
Operating statistics (LTM)
# of Retail Locations 1,128 5,715 1,677 1,649 541
Fuel Volumes (MM Gallons) 3,715 3,672 1,416 1,889 768
Retail Fuel Volume/Store
(000 Gallons)3,333 894 858 1,157 1,430
Average Fuel Margin (¢/Gallon) 15.6¢ 15.9¢ 15.9¢ 17.5¢ 16.5¢
Merchandise Sales ($MM) $2,115 $6,343 $1,779 $1,779 $863
Merchandise Sales/Store/Week ($000) $36 $21 $20 $21 $31
EBITDA per Store ($000) $326 $131 $164 $133 $263
Total EBITDA $363 $747 $275 $275 $142
EBITDA Multiple (TEV/EBITDA) ?? 10.8x 8.9x 5.4x 5.5x
Real Estate % Ownership 91% 30% 99% 26% 45%
ROIC 13% 17% 10% 1% 6%
Fuel
Merchandise
2011 Competitor Comps
26%74%
24%
76%
30%70%
62%
38%68%
32%
Source: Company Reports, Capital IQ
49M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
US Retail Merchandise Contribution
Merchandise SalesBillion Per Year
$0.9
$1.2
$1.3
$1.8
$2.0
$2.2
$0.0
$0.2
$0.4
$0.6
$0.8
$1.0
$1.2
$1.4
$1.6
$1.8
$2.0
$2.2
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Merchandise MarginMillion Per Year
2011 included nonrecurring adjustment of $(8.4)MM
$120
$152
$178
$214
$259$270
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
50M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
Connecting with our Customers
Murphy USA Mobile App Re-launched in March – Expecting 250,000+
Downloads This Year
Provides Real-time Pricing and Location Information for Murphy USA & Competitors
Innovative GPS Technology to Match to In-station Merchandise & Fuel Discounts
51M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
US Retail Financial Performance
2006-2011 Key Financial Indicators ($Millions)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Total Margin 454 511 812 535 707 849
Operating Expense 270 306 339 340 384 404
Admin and G&A 27 30 54 61 66 76
Total Operating Cost 297 336 393 401 450 480
Operating Income (Loss) 157 175 419 134 257 369
EBITDA 156 164 408 130 255 363
EBITDA per Site 0.17 0.17 0.41 0.13 0.24 0.33
After-tax Cash Flow 124 128 278 111 186 273
52M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
Growth Avenues
Walmart Cross Promotion & New Site Growth
Opportunities with Third parties
Growth Outside the Walmart Pad
53M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R A T I O N
Murphy Value Platform
Global Upstream business Operator – organization skills and excellence
Solid existing projects with new growth opportunities
Exploration – 12 +/- wells per year program
Oil weighting
Repositioning in Downstream Sale of refineries
US Retail Premium business – critical mass achieved
Value created – more to come
M U R P H Y O I L C O R P O R AT I O N
Annual Meeting of
Shareholders
El Dorado, Arkansas
May 9, 2012