Multiple Interactions Between Food and

Water Security

Developing an Agenda For Action in

South Asia

Uma Lele

Manmohan Agarwal

Sambuddha Goswami

Definition of Food Security

Food security: All people, at all times, have

physical, social and economic access to

sufficient, safe and nutritious food which meets

their dietary needs and food preferences for an

active and healthy life.

(World Food Summit, 1996).

Availability, Access, Stability and Utilization.

Definition of Water Security

The availability of an acceptable quantity and quality

of water for health, livelihoods, ecosystems and

production, coupled with an acceptable level of water-

related risks to people, environments and economies.

----- D. Grey and C. Sadoff. ―Sink or Swim? Water security for growth and development‖. Water Policy

9(2007): 545-57.

Availability, Quality, Health, Livelihoods, Production, Acceptable

Levels of Risks? Environmental Sustainability

Destructive Nature of Water—floods and droughts

Despite Rapid Economic Growth

Largest Number of the world’s

hungry in South Asia

Largest Share of World’s

Undernourishment in 2010, by

Region (Millions)

0,0

50,0

100,0

150,0

200,0

250,0

300,0

350,0

400,0

Source: FAO STATISTICS DIVISION

Number of Undernourished Person (Millions)

Northern Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa

Latin America and theCaribbean

Eastern Asia

Eastern Asia (withoutChina)

South Asia

South Asia (withoutIndia)

South-Eastern Asia

Western Asia

Rest of East Asia and Pacific

12%

Europe and Central Asia

0%

Latin America and the

Caribbean 3%

Middle East and North Africa

1%

Rest of South Asia 7%

Sub-Saharan Africa 11%

China 44%

India 22%

1981 Population living below $ 1.25 a

day=1899.83 mil

Rest of East Asia and Pacific

10%

Europe and Central Asia

0%

Latin America and the

Caribbean 3%

Middle East and North

Africa 1%

Rest of South Asia 8%

Sub-Saharan Africa 16%

China 38%

India 24%

1990 Population living below $ 1.25 a

day=1818.45 mil

Rest of East Asia and Pacific

8%

Europe and Central Asia 1%

Latin America and the Caribbean

3%

Middle East and North Africa

1% Rest of South Asia 11%

Sub-Saharan Africa 28%

China 15%

India 33%

2005 Population living below $ 1.25 a

day=1373.7mil

Data Source: http://go.worldbank.org/NT2A1XUW

P0 (PovcalNet) GFAR Paper/ GAT Report

Foot Note: The survey years for all

the regions except India are 1981,

1990 and 2005 but for India the

survey years are 1977.5, 1987.5

and 2004.5.

South Asia 44% and SS Africa 28%

of Global Poverty In 2005

China’s Poverty Share was the largest of A Much Larger Poverty Incidence in 1981

Malnourishment worsened by Rising Prices

On Track for Poverty Reduction by 2015 But Off

Track on Food Security?

On Track on Water Access but Way Off Track on Sanitation

Lowest Per Capita Cultivated Land and Declining

-0,8

-0,6

-0,4

-0,2

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2007 1980-2007

Source: FAOSTAT

Annual Growth Rates of Agricultural Population in Developing Region

(1980-2007)

EAP(DEVELOPINGCOUNTRIESONLY--20)

LAC(DEVELOPINGCOUNTRIESONLY--29)

MENA(DEVELOPING COUNTRIESONLY--12)

SA(8 COUNTRIES)

SSA(DEVELOPINGCOUNTRIESONLY--45)

0

5

10

15

20

25

1980 1990 2000 2007

Source: FAOSTAT

Acute Agricultural Land Pressure

EAP(DEVELOPINGCOUNTRIES ONLY--20)

LAC(DEVELOPINGCOUNTRIES ONLY--29)

MENA(DEVELOPINGCOUNTRIES ONLY--12)

SA(DEVELOPINGCOUNTRIES ONLY--8)

SSA(DEVELOPINGCOUNTRIES ONLY--45)

EASTERN EUROPE

ROW(DEVELOPEDREGION)

By 2050 Growing Urban and Agricultural Population

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

1961 2008 2030 2050

Source: FAOSTAT 2011

Total Urban Population, by Region (Est. & Proj. 2008)

(1000)

LAC (South America+ CentralAmerica+ Caribbean)(Developing Region)

SSA (Middle+ Eastern+Southern+ Western Africa)(Developing Region)

MENA (Middle East Asia+Northern Africa) (DevelopingRegion)

Eastern Asia (ExcludingJapan) and Oceania(Excluding Australia+ NewZealand) (Developing Region)

Central Asia+ Western Asia(Excluding Middle East AsianCountries)

South Asia ( 8 Countriesonly)(Developing Region)

South-Eastern Asia(Developing Region)

Eastern Europe (DevelopedRegion)

Rest of Europe (DevelopedRegion)

Other Developed Region(Australia+ Canada+ Japan+New Zealand+ USA)

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000

1980 2008 2020

Source: FAOSTAT 2011

Total Agricultural Population, by Region (Est. & Proj. 2008)

(1000)

LAC (South America+Central America+ Caribbean)(Developing Region)

SSA (Middle+ Eastern+Southern+ Western Africa)(Developing Region)

MENA (Middle East Asia+Northern Africa) (DevelopingRegion)

Eastern Asia (ExcludingJapan) and Oceania(Excluding Australia+ NewZealand) (DevelopingRegion)Central Asia+ Western Asia(Excluding Middle East AsianCountries)

South Asia ( 8 Countriesonly)(Developing Region)

South-Eastern Asia(Developing Region)

Eastern Europe (DevelopedRegion)

Rest of Europe (DevelopedRegion)

Other Developed Region(Australia+ Canada+ Japan+New Zealand+ USA)

Situation worse by 2050

Slower TFP Growth in South Asia than South East Asia

NOTE: Source of TFP Indexes figures is Fuglie, K. 2010. Total factor productivity in the global agricultural economy:

Evidence from FAO data, in The Shifting Patterns of Agricultural Production and Productivity Worldwide. Eds. Julian

Alston, Bruce Babcock, Philip Pardey. Ames, Iowa: Midwest Agribusiness Trade and Research Information Center,

pp 63-95.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Ba

se

Ye

ar

19

61

=1

00

* Data for Maldives are not available

Agricultural TFP Indexes (1961-2007)

[South Asia--7 Countries Only] Afghanistan

Bangladesh

Bhutan

India

Nepal

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

North-EastAsia

South-EastAsia

Large Yield Gap Between East Asia and South Asia

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Base Y

ear

1961=

100

Source: FAOSTAT 2011

South Asia and East Asia Region: Yield Growth of Total Cereal (Hg/Ha)

(1961-2009)

East Asia

South Asia

Note: South Asia Region (8 countries only) --- Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.

East Asia Region (5 countries only)—China, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Japan, Mongolia, Republic of Korea.

0

50000000

100000000

150000000

200000000

250000000

300000000

350000000

400000000

450000000

Source: FAOSTAT 2011

South Asia Region: Principal Cereal Production (Tonnes)

(1961-2009)

Wheat

Rice, paddy

Sorghum

Millet

Maize

Barley

Buckwheat

Rapid Growth of Wheat and Rice Production Slow

Growth in Rainfed Food Crops

SA’s High Vulnerability to Climate Change

Extreme Weather

Already 750 million people affected by a natural disasters

in past two decades.

230,000 deaths

US$45 billion in damages

Melting of Glaciers in the Himalayas

Sea-level Rise Affecting cities with high populations

Higher Temperatures

Variable Rainfall

Overall 2% Loss of GDP of India by some models

Likely Impacts

• Greatly Increased Risk and Uncertainty

• Yield declines—Maize, vs. Rice and Wheat

• Greater Crop and livestock losses

• Change in the World Agricultural Production and Trade

• Biofuels

16

85 to 95 Percent of Water Use in Agriculture?

WATER-FOOD SECURITY-CLIMATE CHANGE

NEXUS—M. Aiti Kadi

WATER

AGRICULTURE CLIMATE

CHANGE

FS IW

RM

M.AITKADI

FAO. 2009. The State of Food Insecurity in the World:

Economic Crises – Impacts and Lessons Learned.

Rome: FAO.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1982-90 1991-2000 2001-05 2007

Source: WDR & WDI

Aid Flows as % of GDP, by Region

1982-2007

EAP

LAC

SA

SSA

Agarwal and Lele, Forthcoming

Declining Net Aid and Falling Shares of

Agriculture in Aid

Focus Workshop on Needed Policies, Investment

Choices and Institutions

Is treatment of climate- water- interactions in national plans adequate? –

E.g. Treatment of Increased Risks and Uncertainty in Research and

Development

Are investment choices right in Policies and Infrastructure development?

E.g. Surface Irrigation vs Ground Water Development vs.

conjunctive use?

Is there a Ground Water Development Policy/Strategy?

Are Energy subsidies/shortages leading to over exploitation of water?

Are Water Related Institutions (both Government and Community Level

from national to local) Effective in addressing issues of efficiency, equity

and sustainability

Large Scope to Increase Inter-Regional

and Global-National Cooperation

• An Effective Web based Communication • GIS Data and Just in Time Distribution • Investment in Knowledge Generation to Promote Multisectoral

planning • Demand Management of Water and Crops • More and Better M and E • Rapid Translation of Lessons into Action