multi-national force-iraq - long war journal...iraqi army battalions, national police battalions,...
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Multi-National Force-Iraq
Charts to accompany the testimony ofGEN David H. Petraeus
10-11 September 2007
Tal AfarTal Afar
KarbalaKarbala
An NajafAn Najaf
An NasiriyahAn Nasiriyah
Al KutAl Kut
BaqubahBaqubah
Major Threats to Iraq
BasrahBasrah
Intra-Shi’a Violence
Lethal Aid, Training, Funding
Foreign Fighter
Flow
Shi’a Infighting Over Power/Resources
RamadiRamadi
Anti-AQI Tribal Success
Tikrit
SamarraSamarra
MosulMosul
Kirkuk
0 100 mi
AQI/Insurgent & Shi’a Militias
BaghdadBaghdad
AQI/Sunni
Insurgents
AQI
FallujahFallujah
SAUDI ARABIA
SYRIA
TURKEY
IRAN
PKK
AQI/Insurgent & Shi’a Militias
1
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
1-O
ct-0
422
-Oct
-04
12-N
ov-0
403
-Dec
-04
24-D
ec-0
414
-Jan
-05
04-F
eb-0
525
-Feb
-05
18-M
ar-0
508
-Apr
-05
29-A
pr-0
520
-May
-05
10-J
un-0
501
-Jul
-05
22-J
ul-0
512
-Aug
-05
02-S
ep-0
523
-Sep
-05
14-O
ct-0
504
-Nov
-05
25-N
ov-0
516
-Dec
-05
06-J
an-0
627
-Jan
-06
17-F
eb-0
610
-Mar
-06
31-M
ar-0
621
-Apr
-06
12-M
ay-0
602
-Jun
-06
23-J
un-0
614
-Jul
-06
04-A
ug-0
625
-Aug
-06
15-S
ep-0
606
-Oct
-06
27-O
ct-0
617
-Nov
-06
08-D
ec-0
629
-Dec
-06
19-J
an-0
709
-Feb
-07
02-M
ar-0
723
-Mar
-07
13-A
pr-0
704
-May
-07
25-M
ay-0
715
-Jun
-07
06-J
ul-0
727
-Jul
-07
17-A
ug-0
707
-Sep
-07
Attacks Against Iraqi Infrastructure & Government Facilities
Bombs (IEDs), both Found and Exploded
Sniper, Ambush, Grenade, and Other Small Arms Attacks
Mortar and Rocket Attacks
Overall Weekly Iraq Attack Trends Overall Weekly Iraq Attack Trends 1 October 2004 1 October 2004 –– 7 September 20077 September 2007
Baghdad Security Plan
15 Feb 07
Samarra mosque bombing22 Feb 06
Parliamentary elections, 15 Dec 05
Iraqi referendum15 Oct 05
Iraqi elections30 Jan 05
Surge ofoffensives16 Jun 07
2
Iraq Civilian DeathsIraq Civilian Deaths
As of 31 Aug 07
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500Ja
n-06
Feb-
06
Mar
-06
Apr
-06
May
-06
Jun-
06
Jul-0
6
Aug
-06
Sep
-06
Oct
-06
Nov
-06
Dec
-06
Jan-
07
Feb-
07
Mar
-07
Apr
-07
May
-07
Jun-
07
Jul-0
7
Aug
-07
IraqBaghdad
Source: Coalition and Host National Reporting 3
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
May
-06
Jun-
06
Jul-0
6
Aug
-06
Sep-
06
Oct
-06
Nov
-06
Dec
-06
Jan-
07
Feb-
07
Mar
-07
Apr
-07
May
-07
Jun-
07
Jul-0
7
Aug
-07
Iraq
10 Baghdad SecurityDistricts
EthnoEthno--Sectarian ViolenceSectarian Violence
DensityLeast Most
Majority Shia Majority Sunni Mixed
Majority Shia Majority Sunni Mixed
Majority Shia Majority Sunni Mixed Majority Shia Majority Sunni Mixed DEC 06 FEB 07
As of 31 Aug 07
MAY 07
Density plots are of incidents where deaths Density plots are of incidents where deaths occurred from any means that were clearly occurred from any means that were clearly ethnoethno--sectarian in motivation, to include car sectarian in motivation, to include car bombs bombs
Ethno-Sectarian Deaths AUG 07
4
Caches Found & Cleared
•- &
•MND•-•B Cache440921111 JAN 07-7 SEP 07
272612222006
26916922004
309114832005
IraqAnbarYear
5
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500Ju
l-06
Aug
-06
Sep-
06
Oct
-06
Nov
-06
Dec
-06
Jan-
07
Feb-
07
Mar
-07
Apr
-07
May
-07
Jun-
07
Jul-0
7
Aug
-07
Total IED IraqTotal IED BaghdadTotal IED Anbar
Improvised Explosive Devices (Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDsIEDs))
Total IEDs = IED explosions + IEDs found + IED hoaxes 6
AnbarAnbar AttacksAttacks
DensityLeast Most
AUG 07
OCT 06
As of 31 Aug 07
Density plots are of locationsDensity plots are of locationswhere attacks occurredwhere attacks occurred
JAN 07 MAR 07
Anbar
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Jun-
06
Jul-0
6
Aug
-06
Sep-
06
Oct
-06
Nov
-06
Dec
-06
Jan-
07
Feb-
07
Mar
-07
Apr
-07
May
-07
Jun-
07
Jul-0
7
Aug
-07
AttacksTrend
7
0
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40
60
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100
120
140
160
180
04-A
ug-0
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25-A
ug-0
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15-S
ep-0
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06-O
ct-0
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27-O
ct-0
6
17-N
ov-0
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08-D
ec-0
6
29-D
ec-0
6
19-J
an-0
7
09-F
eb-0
7
02-M
ar-0
7
23-M
ar-0
7
13-A
pr-0
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04-M
ay-0
7
25-M
ay-0
7
15-J
un-0
7
06-J
ul-0
7
27-J
ul-0
7
17-A
ug-0
7
07-S
ep-0
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4-A
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ar-0
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pr-0
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ay-0
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ay-0
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ep-0
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4-A
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ug-0
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ep-0
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ct-0
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ct-0
6
17-N
ov-0
6
8-D
ec-0
6
29-D
ec-0
6
19-J
an-0
7
9-Fe
b-07
2-M
ar-0
7
23-M
ar-0
7
13-A
pr-0
7
4-M
ay-0
7
25-M
ay-0
7
15-J
un-0
7
6-Ju
l-07
27-J
ul-0
7
17-A
ug-0
7
7-S
ep-0
7
0
50
100
150
200
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04-A
ug-0
6
25-A
ug-0
6
15-S
ep-0
6
06-O
ct-0
6
27-O
ct-0
6
17-N
ov-0
6
08-D
ec-0
6
29-D
ec-0
6
19-J
an-0
7
09-F
eb-0
7
02-M
ar-0
7
23-M
ar-0
7
13-A
pr-0
7
04-M
ay-0
7
25-M
ay-0
7
15-J
un-0
7
06-J
ul-0
7
27-J
ul-0
7
17-A
ug-0
7
07-S
ep-0
7
Iraq Violence TrendsIraq Violence Trends
BaghdadSalah ad Din Province
Ninewah ProvinceAnbar Province
Level of Violence = Attacks + Murders Events As of 7 Sep 07 8
As of 31 AUG 07; High Profile = Car bombs + suicide car bombs + suicide vests
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200M
ay-0
6
Jun-
06
Jul-0
6
Aug
-06
Sep-
06
Oct
-06
Nov
-06
Dec
-06
Jan-
07
Feb-
07
Mar
-07
Apr
-07
May
-07
Jun-
07
Jul-0
7
Aug
-07
Total High Profile AttacksCar BombSuicide Car BombSuicide Vest
`
High Profile AttacksHigh Profile Attacks
9
AQI East Side Military Emir in Mosul
Emir of Hay al Jama’ah
Financial Emir in Jazirah
AQI Emir of Amiriyah
Facilitator
Facilitator
AQI Weapons Facilitator
AQI Facilitator
Military Advisor
AQI Cell Leader
Media Network
Media Network
VBIED Cell
Financier
North Karkh
Second in CommandAQI in Karmah
AQI Emir for Salah ad Din
AQI Emir for Mosul
Senior Iraqi AQI Leader
Sniper Cell LeaderAQI Mosul
City EmirAQI Samarra
KidnappingCell Leader
Special Group
AQI External Facilitator
Admin Emir
Military Emir
Security Emirfor Executions
Logistics Emir
Emir of Arab Jabour
JAN 07JAN 07JAN 07JAN 07 State of Al Qaeda IraqState of Al Qaeda Iraq
BAGHDADBAGHDAD
SAMARRASAMARRA
KIRKUKKIRKUK
MUQDADIYAHMUQDADIYAH
BA’QUBAHBA’QUBAH
RAMADIRAMADIHITHIT
AL QA’IMAL QA’IM
TIKRITTIKRIT
AS SULAYMANIYAHAS SULAYMANIYAH
MOSULMOSULAUG 07AUG 07
July to September2007
KilledCaptured
Strategic Detention/EKIA15 June to 5 September 07
Emirs of:YusafiyahN. Iraq SamarraMosulDiyalaNorth Karkh
Media Cells:RamadiGhazaliyahBaghdadBaqubahSamarra
Arab JabourHay alAndullahSinjar
Emir of Sinjar
10
Tarmiyah
Tal AfarTal Afar
KarbalaKarbala
An NajafAn Najaf
An NasiriyahAn Nasiriyah
Al KutAl Kut
BaqubahBaqubah
BasraBasra
SamarraSamarra
MosulMosul
BaghdadBaghdad
Tikrit
FallujaFallujaRamadiRamadi
SunniMixedShi’a
Security Volunteers
Tribal Engagement
VettedIn hiring process forIraqi Security Forces
Local Security Forces29.8K28.4K
11
Iraqi Security Forces Capabilities
Iraqi Army Battalions, National Police Battalions, and Special Operating Force Battalions
0102030405060708090
100110120130140150160170180
Nov
-05
Dec
-05
Jan-
06
Feb-
06
Mar
-06
Apr
-06
May
-06
Jun-
06
Jul-0
6
Aug
-06
Sep-
06
Oct
-06
Nov
-06
Dec
-06
Jan-
07
Feb-
07
Mar
-07
Apr
-07
May
-07
Jun-
07
Jul-0
7
Aug
-07
Sep-
07
Level IV - Unit FormingLevel III - Fighting Side by SideLevel II - Iraqi Lead with Coalition SupportLevel I - Fully Independent
12
15
12
10
7
5
20
LeadingLeading to Partnering to Overwatch (Tactical to Operational to Strategito Partnering to Overwatch (Tactical to Operational to Strategic)c)
20-15 Dec 07
Time
15-12
DecisionPointNLT
Mar 08
12-10?
10-7
?
7-5?
Primary Brigade MissionStrategic OverwatchOperational OverwatchTactical OverwatchPartneringLeading
Recommended Force Reductions/Mission ShiftSep 07
Jul 08
Date Determined NLT Mar 08
13