ms. tshilidzi ramuedzisi chief director: energy planning
DESCRIPTION
Integrated Energy Plan: Introduction and Background. Ms. Tshilidzi Ramuedzisi Chief Director: Energy Planning. CONTENTS. Scope and context of IEP IEP Governance Structure IEP Process and Methodology Progress to Date and Way Forward. Integrated Energy Plan. What does IEP seek to achieve?. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Ms. Tshilidzi RamuedzisiChief Director: Energy Planning
Integrated Energy Plan: Introduction and Background
1
CONTENTS• Scope and context of IEP• IEP Governance Structure• IEP Process and Methodology• Progress to Date and Way Forward
Integrated Energy Plan
What does IEP seek to achieve?
Inform regulation of
the sector Energy sector
Minimise Cost of cost
of energy
Climate change (Clean energy)
Demand management
Energy security
Access to energy
Diversity of supply
Safety
IEP Governance StructureCABINET
MINISTER OF ENERGY
DIRECTOR GENERAL (ENERGY)
INTEGRATED ENERGY PLAN STEERING COMMITTEE
TECHNICAL WORKING GROUP
INTEGRATED ENERGY PLANNING
STRATEGY WORKING GROUP
IEP REPORT WORKING GROUP
STAKEHOLDER OUTREACH
WORKING GROUP
IEP Governance StructureWG/SWG Key Purpose Key Deliverables
IEP Steering Committee
•Oversee the IEP development process•Approve ToR for SWGs•Recommend approval of key deliverables to DG and Minister
•IEP published for public comments by 31 March 2011
IEP Report WG •Define modeling approach and methodology•Selection of adequate energy modeling tool/system•Define policy questions•Define scenarios•Define key modeling parameters and values
IEP Report
IEP Strategy SWG •Draft IEPS with a clearly defined framework for the IEP development process
IEP Strategy
IEP Governance StructureWG/SWG Key Purpose Key Deliverables
Stakeholder Engagement WG
•Define stakeholder engagement framework•Ensure stakeholder representation and stakeholder engagement processes implemented•Define communication strategy and ensure implementation thereof
•Stakeholder Engagement Framework •Stakeholder Engagement Implementation Plan
Technical WG •Determine data requirements and develop Energy Data Inventory for modeling exercise•Collect data required for modeling exercise•Conduct modeling exercise•Conduct analyses of model outputs
•Energy Data Inventory •Centralized Energy Database•Technical Report
IEP Methodology
• Defines process that will be followed in development of IEP
• Ensures transparency of process to improve repeatability and enhancement
• Clarifies distinction between conceptual and technical processes
• Scenario-Based Methodology– Enables systematic and structured approach to consideration of
complex and competing objectives
– Forces one to consider only those key variables which have the most significant impact
– Structured approach to testing various policy options, often with competing objectives
PROBLEM FORMULATION
National Objectives
DoE Mandate
TECHNICAL PROCESS
Develop Reference Energy System and Energy Demand
Model
Model Base Case
Model Test Cases
Within each Plausible Future:•Project Demand•Test ‘Base Case’•Test ‘Test Cases’
Key Policy Question
Define Plausible Futures
Define Policy Options
Evaluate Outcomes
RecommendationsModel Output/Results
Defining of Plausible Futures
• Premised on the principle that the future is unknown and an indeterminate set of futures can unfold
• Allows focus on those factors that affect the economy which can have most significant impact on the realisation of objectives
• The demand trajectory will be shaped by the assumptions which describe particular future
• Objective is to develop plan which is robust or flexible enough for different pictures of the future
Plausible Futures
Plausible Future 1•Constrained Global Environment•Unfavourable Socio-Economic Development
Plausible Future 2•Constrained Global Environment•Favourable Socio-Economic Development
Plausible Future 4•Constrained Global Environment•Unfavourable Socio-Economic Development
Plausible Future 3•Relaxed Global Environment•Favourable Socio-Economic Development
Socio-Economic Factors
Key Driving ForcesSocio-Economic Factors
Key Driving Force
Key Indicator Government Goal
Average over between 1993 and 2008
Current Unfavourable Local Socio-Economic Development
Favourable Local Socio-Economic Development
Local Economic
Growth
GDP 6% per annum
3.50% 3.10% Less than 4% Greater than 4%
CPIX 3-6% 6.81 (Between 1998 and 2008)
11.30% Less than 3% or greater than 6%
Between 3-6%
CPI 3-6% 6.65% 11.50% Less than 3% or greater than 6%
Between 3-6%
Poverty Levels
Inequality measure (Gini Coefficient)
Reduction in income inequality
0.68 0.66 Greater than 0.5 Less than or equal to 0.5
Poverty Headcount Index
Meeting basic needs of all South Africans
48% 39% Some South Africans still living below poverty line
No South Africans living below poverty line
ILLUSTRATION
Key Driving ForcesGlobal Environment
Key Driving Force Key Indicator Unfavourable Global Environment
Favourable Global Environment
International StabilityInternational Commodity Prices
High prices of commodities in international markets(i.e. Price of crude oil > $150/bbl)
High prices of commodities in international markets(i.e. Price of crude oil <$150/bbl)
Regional StabilityRegional Commodity Prices
High prices of commodities in regional marketsLack of cooperation amongst regional players
Competitive prices of commodities in regional marketsCooperation amongst regional players
Level of global competition for technology
International technology prices
High levels of global competition for technology driving technology prices up
Healthy levels of global competition for technology driving technology prices up
Lead time for delivery of equipment needed to build new energy infrastructure
Long lead times Acceptable lead times
Availability and cost of funding from international markets
Sovereign credit ratingUnfavourable sovereign credit rating
Good sovereign credit rating
Large enterprises credit rating
Unfavourable credit rating of large enterprises
Good credit rating of large enterprises
ILLUSTRATION
Defining Policy Options to be tested
• Energy planning is about making choices, often between imperatives with competing objectives
• Classification of policies – Existing and implemented– Approved but not yet implemented or effected– New and future policies to be considered
• Choosing the most appropriate set of policy options to achieve objectives
NEXT STEPSActivity
Presentation of IEP Methodology to Cabinet
Approval and publishing of Plausible Futures
Public Participation Workshops
Finalise Scenarios and Test Cases to be considered in IEP
Conduct technical work
Analysis of Results
Draft recommendations for IEP
THANK YOU