mosaicc – the forestry component
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MOSAICC:An inter-disciplinary system of models
to evaluate the impact of climate change on agriculture and forestry
Renaud ColmantNovember 2015
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Concept
• Need for a tool to facilitate the user experience by simplifying data processing and simulation runs
• Include additional models• Transferable (capacity reinforcement)• At no cost (freeware)
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Concept
MOSAICC: Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change•Capacity development tool for Assessing climate change impacts on agriculture at national level (trends)•By national experts (ministries, universities, research institutions)•Using own data•In a perspective of decision support
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Concept
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Models selection
• Expert consultation • Robustness rather than sophistication (low
data input, commonly available), flexibility, wide application, open source
• 1 Statistical Downscaling tool, 2 crop models, 1 Hydrological model and 1 Economic model
• New: 1 forest model
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LANDIS-II •Developed by Portland State University•LANDIS-II is a forest landscape simulation model. It simulates how ecological processes including succession, seed dispersal, disturbances, and climate change affect a forested landscape over time.
Models selection
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LANDIS-IIUses
• Across large (typically 10,000 - 20,000,000 ha) landscapes.
• Spatial and Temporal Flexibility – variable time steps for each process – variable spatial resolution and extent
• Built for Collaboration – on-line database of extensions – open-source extensions – well documented – flexible model architecture
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LANDIS-IIPnET-Succession
• Purdue University, USA
• Assumption 1: – Ecological models built on phenomenological relationships and behavior of the past are “Not robust enough under novel conditions” Gustafson, 2013 ; Williams et al., 2007
• Assumption 2:– Process-based models have “More robust predictions under novel conditions” Cuddington et al. 2013; Gustafson, 2013
PnET process-based model integrated in LANDIS-II as succession process
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Main Inputs
Ecoregions input map:-Temperature-Precipitation-Soil
Climate data (by Ecoregion):-From downscaled and interpolation
Initial communities:-Input map-List species age cohorts by Initial Site Classes
Species parameters:-Longevity-Sexual maturity-Seeding distance-Foliar characteristics-Shade and Fire tolerance
Values have already been given to most of the parameters (applied for categories of species)
Disturbances: -Harvest-Fire-Wind
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Main Outputs
Spatial annual maps:- By species (user choice)- By interest:
• Biomass• LAI• Soil water• Establishment
Graphs and tables :
- For all the species• Total Biomass• LAI (m2)• Establishment• Soil water• CC impacts• Disturbance impacts• Harvested wood
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Integration
• Server• Spatial database• Web interfaces (user profiles, work modes,
experiment definition and management, data management)
• Shell (data preparation, experiment execution, output storage)
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Distribution
• Delivered to technical institutions through:– Constitution of a working group– Trainings– Support to carry out an integrated
impact study
• Operational in the Philippines, Morocco and Peru
• Foreseen: Zambia, Malawi, Paraguay
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Distribution
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Thank you for your attention• Info:
– www.fao.org/climatechange/mosaicc – [email protected]
• Partners
Mauro Evangelisti Servizi Informatici
Numerical Ecology of Aquatic Systems
AgroMetShell
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Interfaces
• Home page – log-in
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Interfaces• Functions (utilities and models)
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Interfaces• Data management
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Interfaces• Experiment management
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Advantages
• Participatory approach• Remote access• Nothing to install (web browser)• Easy data exchange• Low computing time• No data format or unit conversion• Data tracking down the flow
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Decision support
• Relevance of simulations and modelisation– Scenario testing (climate, varieties, crop management,
water use, demography, policies etc.)– Facilitate understanding of processes at stake– Very suitable for climate change studies
• Limitations: – Reduced reality, non
comprehensive, under assumptions
– Uncertainties
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Decision support
• “Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful” (G. Box, statistician)
• Data quality: garbage in = garbage out
• Not to be taken alone!