Monday Weather Briefing for December 3, 2018

GENERAL OVERVIEW (significant forecast changes in red):

• A lot of near term rain for northern soybean growing areas of Brazil, then lesser amounts for the 6-10 and

especially 11-15 day periods. Quite dry in southern growing areas the next ten days then good rains return. Cool

in the south over the next week

• Largely dry in corn/soybean growing areas of Argentina for at least another week then good rains return. No

big heat in the two-week forecast (quite cool through the weekend)

• Quite dry for the 10-day forecast for most of the Corn Belt before precipitation return to especially eastern areas

for the 11-15 day period. Turning cold near term and staying cold through December 10 then much warmer

• Rain and some snow back into the Mid-South and Southeast at the end of the week. Colder for today through

December 11 before warming nicely again

• Mostly dry in the Plains feedlot areas through Thursday, rain/freezing rain/snow for Friday/Saturday, then dry

again. Cold through December 10 then warmer

• Quite dry the next two weeks in the northern Plains with a much warmer pattern starting at the end of the week

• Nice weekend moisture in Europe for England, France, and Germany with more to fall the next ten days

• Drought relief still not forecast for western corn growing areas of South Africa

BRAZIL/PARAGUAY:

• Rainfall will average near normal in northern corn and soybean growing areas of Brazil over the next two weeks.

Two-week rainfall totals of 3-7” will be seen in the bulk of the area in question. The biggest amounts will fall in

the 1-5 day period with only far southern parts of the region NOT seeing at least some 2-4” amounts. Rain amounts

will then subside to mostly 0.50-3.00” for the 6-10 day period (which admittedly is a little wetter than it looked

yesterday with especially good totals in northern Goias, Tocantins, and northern Minas Gerais) with widespread

High temperatures yesterday (left) and 18-hour rainfall totals through midnight CST (right) (soybean growing areas shaded)

below normal amounts for the 11-15 day period (totals under an inch with especially limited amounts in Bahia

and northern Minas Gerais). Temperatures look to run near to mostly below normal over the next ten days, then

trend into normal to above-normal readings for the 11-15 day period.

• Two-week rainfall totals will run near to mostly below normal for southern corn/soybean growing areas of Brazil

as well as in neighboring growing areas of Paraguay. For today through at least December 12 I would expect very

little rain to fall with most areas indeed being dry. Model agreement is EXCELLENT though on a big increase in

rainfall for the 11-15 day period, with near to mostly above-normal amounts expected (indications of heavy totals

for Rio Grande do Sul). The next week will be quite cool in the area, with some much-below normal readings for

today/tomorrow and again for December 7-9. Near to above-normal temperatures look to return at the same

time that rain chances will be on the increase for the area (i.e. in the 11-15 day period).

ARGENTINA:

• Two-week rainfall totals look to run near to below-normal throughout the main corn, soybean, and wheat growing

areas of Argentina. For at least the next week I would expect to see little or no rain anywhere in the region;

anything that does fall will be just in the far west. For the latter part of the 6-10 day period though we should start

to see some rain returning to parts of the region (overnight European model showed big rains into the “heart” of

the growing region by late on December 12), and model agreement is EXCELLENT on near to above-normal rainfall

for the 11-15 day time frame with especially good amounts for about the northern half of the main growing area.

• There is clearly no big heat in the two-week forecast. Temperatures will in fact run much-below normal in much

of the region for today, with another round of much-below-normal readings for December 6-8.

BRAZIL/PARAGUAY RAINFALL FORECAST

STATE/REGION 1-5 DAY 6-10 DAY 11-15 DAY

MATOPIBA 2.00-4.00" Near/Above Normal Below Normal/No rain

MATO GROSSO 0.25-4.00" Near/Below Normal Below Normal

GOIAS 0.75-3.00" Below/Near/Above Normal Below Normal

MINAS GERAIS 0.75-4.00” Below/Near/Above Normal Below Normal

MGDS 0.00-0.25" Below Normal/No rain Near/Below Normal

SAO PAULO 0.00-1.00” Below Normal/No rain Near/Below Normal

PARANA No rain No rain Near Normal

RGDS No rain Below Normal/No rain Above Normal

PARAGUAY No rain Below Normal/No rain Near/Above Normal

ARGENTINA RAINFALL FORECAST

STATE 1-5 DAY 6-10 DAY 11-15 DAY

CORDOBA 0.00-0.25" Near/Above Normal Near/Above Normal

SANTA FE No rain Near/Above Normal Near/Above Normal

BUENOS AIRES No rain Near Normal Near Normal

LA PAMPA No rain Near Normal Near Normal

ENTRE RIOS No rain Near Normal Above Normal

CORN BELT:

• The 10-day forecast is clearly not wet in the region. Everyone will see melted precipitation amounts of under a

half inch in that time frame, and in fact a lot of the western Corn Belt will see nothing at all. Thursday/Thursday

night and Friday night/Saturday will be the time frames to expect most of what precipitation is able to fall, and in

both cases there will probably be some modest snow accumulations in southern Missouri and in areas near the

Ohio River. Precipitation chances will be on the increase again for middle and latter parts of the 11-15 day period,

as usual favoring eastern parts of the region with the best totals.

• Below-normal temperatures will return to western areas today, and below-normal temperatures will return to

the entire region by no later than tomorrow. Temperatures will then stay fairly easily below normal across the

region through December 10, then big warming for December 11 and that warming will continue on a widespread

basis in the 11-15 day period (readings easily above normal in that time frame).

MID-SOUTH/SOUTHEAST:

• Largely dry weather will be seen in the Mid-South for today through Thursday. Precipitation is then likely for

Thursday night through Saturday (biggest late in that period), and it should be substantial with everyone seeing

at least 0.75” but probably some 2+” totals for especially Louisiana, southern Arkansas, and parts of Mississippi,

Alabama, and Georgia. Note that much of that precipitation will fall as snow for northern Arkansas, southern

Missouri, Kentucky, and far northern Tennessee with models focusing on some fairly big snow totals for the

MO/AR border area. The rest of the 6-10 day period will be dry but precipitation will be on the increase again for

the 11-15 day period.

Radar-estimated precipitation for the past 72 hours

• Temperatures will turn colder today in the Mid-South and temperatures for the most part will run pretty easily

below normal for tomorrow through December 11. Warming will then be seen for December 12 and above-normal

temperatures will dominate the 11-15 day period.

PLAINS HRW WHEAT/CATTLE FEEDLOT AREAS:

• I mentioned in the video yesterday morning that I thought that the snowfall analysis map being presented by

NOAA at that time was overdoing the actual amounts reported. You can see from the above map (which is showing

72 hour totals through 6 PM CST last evening) that they have indeed backed off on totals. However, I still think

that the map is overdoing things in at least Nebraska. For example, North Platte reports only about 3 inches of

snow from the storm, while the above map would have them in 12-18”. Weekend snowfall totals of 2-3” at Grand

Island/Hastings and about 7” at Valentine are also much less than the map shows. I can CERTAINLY find reports of

localized 12+” snow amounts in Nebraska (and 1.25-1.50+” melted precipitation totals for Hastings and Grand

Island have to also be noted; very impressive for this time of year), but in my opinion even the above revised map

is overdoing what actually fell. As I noted in the video yesterday…it really is pathetic how we take and report

snowfall observations in the United States.

• It will be dry for today through Thursday.

Precipitation will then return for Friday/Saturday for

about the southern half of Kansas southward. Overall

I would call the storm system in question as a little

more impressive than it looked yesteray. Melted

precip totals will exceed a half inch for far

southeastern Kansas, areas of Oklahoma outside of

the panhandle, and central/eastern Texas (including eastern parts of the panhandle). That will fall as a lot of 2-8”

snowfall totals for the area in question, though likely a smaller area of 8+” totals that I would right now target for

the area of the northeastern Texas panhandle into northwestern parts of Oklahoma. Some freezing rain would

have to also be considered for a decent part of the area as well. Dry weather returns for Saturday night and may

very well continue for a week (if not a bit longer).

• Cold conditions will dominate through December 10 with parts of the region running much-below normal for

tomorrow through December 9. Temperatures will moderate on December 11 and will continue to warm into the

11-15 day period.

NORTHERN PLAINS:

• It is a very dry two-week forecast for this area, with largely nothing falling for today through at least December

15.

• Temperatures will not be all that bad for today through Wednesday (averaging close to normal for especially

eastern areas) but will turn cold for Thursday and Friday. Saturday is warmer again though, and that will start a

period in which the area will see LOTS of warm weather through the end of the 11-15 day period.

OTHER AREAS OF INTEREST:

• Precipitation will be pretty limited (some places nothing) in winter grain areas of the former Soviet Union for the

1-5 day period, but some precipitation will return for the 6-10 and 11-15 day periods with the best amounts

favoring western Ukraine (keep in mind that this is normally not a real wet time of year for the area, and of course

moisture needs for the crop are very limited given that it is now into dormancy).

• Widespread precipitation was seen during the weekend in Europe for France, Germany, and England (see map

later in this report). Outside of Spain, good precipitation totals will be seen in Europe over the next ten days with

lots of additional 1.00+” totals.

• Below normal precipitation will be seen the next two weeks for all wheat areas of North Africa (a lot of the area

seeing no rain for the next ten days).

• Rains will stay very limited throughout corn areas of South Africa through Thursday. Rains will start to return to

eastern parts of the growing region for Friday and continue there into the 6-10 and 11-15 day time frames (fairly

significant totals…enough to give them near-normal rainfall for the duration of the two-week forecast), but for

western parts of the growing region any rains do not look big enough to put any sort of a dent in their dryness

problems.

• It continues to look unusually wet for winter wheat areas of the North China Plain for the next ten days before

more typical dry weather returns for the 11-15 day period.

• Rains will be not be big in wheat areas of Australia for the next ten days (large areas will see little or nothing).

Additional maps shown on the next five pages.

Craig Solberg

515-505-0863

Twitter: @Craigsolberg

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Afternoon highs yesterday (above) and 18-hour precipitation totals through midnight CST (below)

72-hour precipitation totals (wheat areas shaded)

72-hour precipitation totals (wheat areas shaded below)

72-hour precipitation (wheat areas shaded above, corn areas shaded below)

30-day precipitation anomalies