morning trading comments€¦ · oversold-trading sell perfected td setup 9 sell anglo american,...

Wednesday, September 26, 2018 | 1

Technical Analysis

Cyril BAUDRILLART, CFTe [email protected] +33.1.40.74.19.32

Morning Trading Comments

SUMMARY OF TRADING VIEWS

Stockmarket indices remain robust in the US and Europe ahead of tonight’s FOMC meeting. The technical outlook is also improving in Asia with Nikkei 225 back near January’s highs and Chinese indices bouncing back. On the opposite, government bond markets are feeling the heat whilst Oil prices are on fire. Even German 10-year bond yields broke above an important resistance at 0.50% yesterday with US peers close to year highs and holding above 3%. Fed comments will be closely monitored by markets tonight and should give the tune.

CROSS ASSET EVENTS

Oil is on fire

As highlighted yesterday morning, Brent prices indeed broke above a key resistance at 80 USD, a rather bullish technical event. This breakout also triggered a triple-top buy on Point & Figure charts, a signal I will discuss in tomorrow’s Weekly Global Roadmap report. Overall this upside breakout shows that Oi prices remain incredibly strong and likely to keep outperforming most commodities. Natural Gas futures also made a nice breakout on Monday. Unsurprisingly, these events are triggering renewed interest for the Oil & Gas sector with numerous stocks breaking out (see charts of Aker BP and ENI on page 4).


DETAILED TRADING OUTLOOK ON MAIN INDICES

S&P 500 E-MINI FUTURE (ESZ8)

RESISTANCES 2936 / 2940 / 2947 SUPPORTS 2920 / 2905-2900 / 2883

Comments

Still holding above 2920 support zone.

PREFERRED CASE for next days

The 2920 area remains an important support zone ahead of today’s FOMC meeting. A breakdown below these levels is still needed to deteriorate the index’s technical outlook.

EURO STOXX 50 FUTURE (VGZ8)

RESISTANCES 3420 / 3444 / 3454

SUPPORTS 3380 / 3355-3350 / 3318

Comments

Taking a breather after strong revival.


The index traded sideways yesterday, in line with expectations, and will probably continue to do so today before the Fed. The 3380 area remains firs important support for the day with 3420 resistance.


DAX 30 FUTURE (GXZ8)

RESISTANCES 12440 / 12500 / 12565 SUPPORTS 12300 / 12200 / 12075

Comments

Formation of a range between 12300 and 12400.


The index should continue to trade sideways today. Keep watching the 12300 area as an important support zone. A break below this level is still needed to deteriorate the ST outlook which remains strong at this stage.

DAILY SCREENING OF EUROPEAN EQUITIES (STOXX 600)

TREND FOLLOWING IDEAS

Upside breakouts Next, Aker BP, Eni

Downside breakouts -

CONTRARIAN TRADING IDEAS

TRADING BUY

Near 200-day MAs Endesa

Perfected TD setup 9 Buy Deutsche Wohnen

Oversold -

TRADING SELL

Perfected TD setup 9 Sell Anglo American, BillerudKorsnas, Bankinter, BHP Billiton, Epiroc, G4S, Metso

Overbought Carnival

See all charts in next pages…


TREND FOLLOWING IDEAS WITHIN STOXX 600 INDEX

Upside breakouts

NXT LN Equity : Next PLC AKERBP NO Equity : Aker BP ASA

ENI IM Equity : Eni SpA


CONTRARIAN TRADING BUY IDEAS WITHIN STOXX 600 INDEX

Daily Perfected Setup 9 Buy signals

DWNI GY Equity : Deutsche Wohnen SE

Stocks back on 200-day MA

ELE SQ Equity : Endesa SA


CONTRARIAN TRADING SELL IDEAS WITHIN STOXX 600 INDEX Daily Perfected Setup 9 Sell

AAL LN Equity : Anglo American PLC BILL SS Equity : BillerudKorsnas AB

BKT SQ Equity : Bankinter SA BLT LN Equity : BHP Billiton PLC


Daily Perfected Setup 9 Sell

EPIA SS Equity : Epiroc AB GFS LN Equity : G4S PLC

METSO FH Equity : Metso OYJ


Stocks overbought on a daily basis

CCL LN Equity : Carnival PLC


Technical Analysis Equity Sales

Cyril BAUDRILLART [email protected] +33.1.40.74.19.32

Methodology

All technical indicators used in this publication are based on historical prices broadcasted by Bloomberg. Several types of indicators are used in this report such as

Bollinger Bands, Oscillators (RSI, MACD), Point & Figure charts, Ichimoku, Keltner Bands and other technical analysis tools. More details on how to interpret and use

these tools are available upon request. Market timing indicators developed by Tom DeMark are also used in this report. The DeMark Indicators are a registered

trademark of DeMark Analytics, LLC. Please note that all the content shown are my personal views and based on my own interpretation of the DeMark Indicators

using the DeMark Service for Bloomberg. Please visit www.demark.com for more information.

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morning trading comments€¦ · oversold-trading sell perfected td setup 9 sell anglo american,...

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