moody's credit opinion as of december 12, 2017 - raiffeisen · when assessing raiffeisen...

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FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS CREDIT OPINION 12 December 2017 Update RATINGS Raiffeisen Schweiz Domicile Switzerland Long Term Debt A2 Type Senior Unsecured - Dom Curr Outlook Stable Long Term Deposit Aa2 Type LT Bank Deposits - Fgn Curr Outlook Stable Please see the ratings section at the end of this report for more information. The ratings and outlook shown reflect information as of the publication date. Contacts Andrea Wehmeier 49-69-70730-782 VP-Senior Analyst [email protected] Alexander Hendricks, CFA 49-69-70730-779 Associate Managing Director - Banking [email protected] Carola Schuler 49-69-70730-766 Managing Director - Banking [email protected] CLIENT SERVICES Americas 1-212-553-1653 Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077 Japan 81-3-5408-4100 EMEA 44-20-7772-5454 Raiffeisen Schweiz Update to credit analysis Summary We assign Aa2/P-1 deposit ratings and A2 senior unsecured debt ratings to Raiffeisen Schweiz Genossenschaft (Raiffeisen Schweiz) with a stable outlook. Furthermore, we assign a Counterparty Risk Assessment of A1(cr)/P-1(cr), a Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) and an Adjusted BCA of a2. The ratings reflect (1) Raiffeisen Schweiz's a2 BCA and Adjusted BCA; (2) the result of our Advanced Loss Given Failure (LGF) analysis, which takes into account the severity of loss faced by different liability classes in resolution, resulting in two notches of rating uplift for deposits, and the positioning of senior unsecured debt one notch below the bank's Adjusted BCA; and (3) the moderate likelihood of government support for the bank, resulting in one notch of rating uplift for its deposits and senior unsecured debt. Raiffeisen Schweiz's a2 BCA reflects the bank's (1) moderate and manageable asset risk; and (2) solid capitalisation and (3) defensive market funding profile. Challenges include (1) above- average mortgage-loan growth over recent years, leading to an increased susceptibility to downward shocks in the Swiss housing market; and (2) net interest margin compression in a low interest rate environment, constraining the group's profitability. When assessing Raiffeisen Schweiz's credit profile and because of its importance to the Raiffeisen Group in combination with the group's strong cohesion with a statutory mutualist support framework, we consider consolidated group numbers for Raiffeisen Schweiz. Exhibit 1 Rating Scorecard - Key financial ratios 0.5% 15.3% 0.4% 14.3% 17.4% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% Asset Risk: Problem Loans/ Gross Loans Capital: Tangible Common Equity/Risk-Weighted Assets Profitability: Net Income/ Tangible Assets Funding Structure: Market Funds/ Tangible Banking Assets Liquid Resources: Liquid Banking Assets/Tangible Banking Assets Solvency Factors (LHS) Liquidity Factors (RHS) Raiffeisen-Gruppe (BCA: a2) Median a2-rated banks Solvency Factors Liquidity Factors Source: Moody's Financial Metrics

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Page 1: Moody's credit opinion as of December 12, 2017 - Raiffeisen · When assessing Raiffeisen Schweiz's credit profile and because of its importance to the Raiffeisen Group in combination

FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

CREDIT OPINION12 December 2017

Update

RATINGS

Raiffeisen SchweizDomicile Switzerland

Long Term Debt A2

Type Senior Unsecured - DomCurr

Outlook Stable

Long Term Deposit Aa2

Type LT Bank Deposits - Fgn Curr

Outlook Stable

Please see the ratings section at the end of this reportfor more information. The ratings and outlook shownreflect information as of the publication date.

Contacts

Andrea Wehmeier 49-69-70730-782VP-Senior [email protected]

Alexander Hendricks,CFA

49-69-70730-779

Associate ManagingDirector - [email protected]

Carola Schuler 49-69-70730-766Managing Director [email protected]

CLIENT SERVICES

Americas 1-212-553-1653

Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077

Japan 81-3-5408-4100

EMEA 44-20-7772-5454

Raiffeisen SchweizUpdate to credit analysis

SummaryWe assign Aa2/P-1 deposit ratings and A2 senior unsecured debt ratings to RaiffeisenSchweiz Genossenschaft (Raiffeisen Schweiz) with a stable outlook. Furthermore, we assigna Counterparty Risk Assessment of A1(cr)/P-1(cr), a Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) and anAdjusted BCA of a2.

The ratings reflect (1) Raiffeisen Schweiz's a2 BCA and Adjusted BCA; (2) the result of ourAdvanced Loss Given Failure (LGF) analysis, which takes into account the severity of lossfaced by different liability classes in resolution, resulting in two notches of rating uplift fordeposits, and the positioning of senior unsecured debt one notch below the bank's AdjustedBCA; and (3) the moderate likelihood of government support for the bank, resulting in onenotch of rating uplift for its deposits and senior unsecured debt.

Raiffeisen Schweiz's a2 BCA reflects the bank's (1) moderate and manageable asset risk; and(2) solid capitalisation and (3) defensive market funding profile. Challenges include (1) above-average mortgage-loan growth over recent years, leading to an increased susceptibility todownward shocks in the Swiss housing market; and (2) net interest margin compression in alow interest rate environment, constraining the group's profitability.

When assessing Raiffeisen Schweiz's credit profile and because of its importance to theRaiffeisen Group in combination with the group's strong cohesion with a statutory mutualistsupport framework, we consider consolidated group numbers for Raiffeisen Schweiz.

Exhibit 1

Rating Scorecard - Key financial ratios

0.5%15.3% 0.4% 14.3% 17.4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

Asset Risk:Problem Loans/

Gross Loans

Capital:Tangible Common

Equity/Risk-WeightedAssets

Profitability:Net Income/

Tangible Assets

Funding Structure:Market Funds/

Tangible BankingAssets

Liquid Resources:Liquid Banking

Assets/TangibleBanking Assets

Solvency Factors (LHS) Liquidity Factors (RHS)

Raiffeisen-Gruppe (BCA: a2) Median a2-rated banks

So

lve

ncy F

acto

rs

Liq

uid

ity F

acto

rs

Source: Moody's Financial Metrics

Page 2: Moody's credit opinion as of December 12, 2017 - Raiffeisen · When assessing Raiffeisen Schweiz's credit profile and because of its importance to the Raiffeisen Group in combination

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Credit strengths

» Low dependence on market funding and adequate liquid resources

» Solid asset-quality metrics

» Generally adequate capitalisation, providing a cushion for downside risks

Credit challenges

» Risks from high exposures to the Swiss real estate market

» Rapid mortgage-loan growth exposes the group to downside risks

» Profits constrained by the low interest rate environment, limiting the ability to further generate capital in light of ever tighterregulatory requirements

OutlookRaiffeisen Schweiz's ratings carry a stable outlook because we expect credit pressures arising from declining profitability to becompensated by improving capitalisation and liquidity.

Factors that could lead to an upgradeAn upgrade of Raiffeisen Schweiz's ratings would be likely in the event of (1) an upgrade of the bank's BCA, or (2) a higher rating upliftresulting from our LGF analysis.

Upward pressure on the bank's a2 BCA could develop following a combination of (1) a slowdown in the group's mortgage-loan bookgrowth to below the market average over the coming years, (2) a sustainable improvement in its risk-adjusted levels of recurringprofitability and efficiency, (3) significantly stronger capitalisation levels at the consolidated group level, and (4) increased liquid-assetvolumes.

Our Advanced LGF analysis could result in higher notches of rating uplift if Raiffeisen Schweiz issues significant volumes of senior orsubordinated debt instruments, which increases the respective instrument tranches, resulting in a reduced expected loss.

Factors that could lead to a downgradeA downgrade of Raiffeisen Schweiz's ratings could be triggered following (1) a downgrade of the bank's BCA; or (2) a decline in thegroup's cohesion, which, however, is considered highly unlikely. The bank's deposit ratings could be strained further in case their volumedeclines substantially, resulting in fewer notches of rating uplift.

Challenges for the bank's BCA could arise from (1) a meaningful deterioration in its asset quality, especially if following a markedslowdown in the Swiss real estate market; (2) a higher risk appetite, in particular if accompanied by a reduction in the bank's capitalratios; (3) a sustained weakening of the group's liquid resources; or (4) an increase in the bank's or the group's market funding ratio.

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page onwww.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

2 12 December 2017 Raiffeisen Schweiz: Update to credit analysis

Page 3: Moody's credit opinion as of December 12, 2017 - Raiffeisen · When assessing Raiffeisen Schweiz's credit profile and because of its importance to the Raiffeisen Group in combination

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Key indicators

Exhibit 2

Raiffeisen Schweiz (Consolidated Financials) [1]12-162 12-152 12-142 12-132 12-123 CAGR/Avg.4

Total Assets (CHF billion) 52 47 37 33 32 12.65

Total Assets (EUR billion) 48 43 31 27 27 16.05

Total Assets (USD billion) 51 47 38 37 35 9.75

Tangible Common Equity (CHF billion) 2.7 2.8 1.3 1.3 1.3 18.95

Tangible Common Equity (EUR billion) 2.5 2.5 1.1 1.1 1.1 22.55

Tangible Common Equity (USD billion) 2.6 2.8 1.3 1.5 1.4 15.95

Problem Loans / Gross Loans (%) 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.56

Tangible Common Equity / Risk Weighted Assets (%) - - 12.8 14.1 14.0 13.57

Problem Loans / (Tangible Common Equity + Loan Loss Reserve) (%) 2.7 1.7 2.6 2.8 4.2 2.86

Net Interest Margin (%) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.46

PPI / Average RWA (%) - - -0.4 -0.1 -0.4 -0.37

Net Income / Tangible Assets (%) -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.06

Cost / Income Ratio (%) 112.5 104.3 107.9 101.8 107.8 106.86

Market Funds / Tangible Banking Assets (%) 68.8 66.7 67.0 65.4 60.8 65.86

Liquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets (%) 70.4 66.3 62.9 62.9 63.5 65.26

Gross Loans / Due to Customers (%) 105.8 106.4 115.1 118.6 102.5 109.76

[1] All figures and ratios are adjusted using Moody's standard adjustments [2] Basel III - fully-loaded or transitional phase-in; LOCAL GAAP [3] Basel II; LOCAL GAAP [4] May includerounding differences due to scale of reported amounts [5] Compound Annual Growth Rate (%) based on time period presented for the latest accounting regime [6] Simple average ofperiods presented for the latest accounting regime. [7] Simple average of Basel III periods presentedSource: Moody's Financial Metrics

Exhibit 3

Raiffeisen-Gruppe (Consolidated Financials) [1]6-172 12-162 12-152 12-142 12-132 CAGR/Avg.3

Total Assets (CHF billion) 228 219 206 188 176 7.64

Total Assets (EUR billion) 209 204 189 157 144 11.24

Total Assets (USD billion) 238 215 206 190 198 5.44

Tangible Common Equity (CHF billion) 15 15 13 12 11 8.34

Tangible Common Equity (EUR billion) 13 14 12 9.8 9 12.04

Tangible Common Equity (USD billion) 15 14 13 12 12 6.14

Problem Loans / Gross Loans (%) - 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.65

Tangible Common Equity / Risk Weighted Assets (%) 15.3 15.9 15.3 14.1 13.6 14.86

Problem Loans / (Tangible Common Equity + Loan Loss Reserve) (%) - 6.1 6.4 7.6 8.2 7.15

Net Interest Margin (%) 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.15

PPI / Average RWA (%) 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.06

Net Income / Tangible Assets (%) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.45

Cost / Income Ratio (%) 68.6 73.4 70.1 69.9 69.7 70.35

Market Funds / Tangible Banking Assets (%) 16.4 14.3 13.6 11.4 9.8 13.15

Liquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets (%) 19.3 17.4 15.2 12.0 11.1 15.05

Gross Loans / Due to Customers (%) 109.4 108.9 109.7 110.4 109.7 109.65

[1] All figures and ratios are adjusted using Moody's standard adjustments [2] Basel III - fully-loaded or transitional phase-in; LOCAL GAAP [3] May include rounding differences due toscale of reported amounts [4] Compound Annual Growth Rate (%) based on time period presented for the latest accounting regime [5] Simple average of periods presented for the latestaccounting regime. [6] Simple average of Basel III periods presentedSource: Moody's Financial Metrics

3 12 December 2017 Raiffeisen Schweiz: Update to credit analysis

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

ProfileRaiffeisen Schweiz is a Switzerland-based cooperative corporation. The bank is wholly owned by 255 local Raiffeisen cooperativebanks, which in turn were owned by nearly 1.9 million cooperative members as of 30 June 2017. Along with certain other specialisedcompanies, these entities constitute Raiffeisen Group, the third-largest banking group in Switzerland in terms of on-balance-sheetassets (CHF228 billion). The group serves around 3.78 million customers through a nationwide network of some 930 branches. As of 31December 2016, Raiffeisen Schweiz reported total assets of CHF51.9 billion (€48.4 billion).

Detailed credit considerationsGenerally solid capitalisation levels under regulatory pressureAs of June 2017, the group's Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital of CHF14.1 billion translated into a stable CET1 ratio of 14.8% anda total capital ratio of 16.4%. The bank already meets the fully loaded 2019 total capital requirement as a domestic systemicallyimportant financial institution/category 2 bank, with a total capital ratio requirement of 15.6%, including 1.1 percentage pointsresulting from the countercyclical capital buffer for domestic residential mortgage exposures.

However, according to plans of the Swiss Federal Council to introduce a new gone-concern capital requirement, Raiffeisen Schweizwould have to hold total capital of 18.5% of its risk-weighted assets as a gone-concern capital requirement being a domesticsystemically important bank (for further details see our publication 'Switzerland's Proposed Gone Concern Capital Rules for D-SIBs AreCredit Positive').

We expect the new requirement to be implemented in 2019-2020, with Raiffeisen to be able to grow its capital buffers throughretained earnings over time, thereby supporting its high Capital score. Additionally, a planned legislative change that would open theoption to raise participation capital in the markets for the co-operative banking sector is underway and could broaden the group'saccess to external capital resources.

In our central scenario on Swiss real estate markets, Raiffeisen Group would be able to cover its expected losses from earnings andloan-loss reserves without a significant impact on its capital ratios, which we have reflected in our aa3 Capital score.

Risks from high and strongly rising exposures to the Swiss real estate market persistThe Swiss Raiffeisen Group's mortgage loan book grew at a compound annual growth rate of 6.3% between 2007 and Half-year 2017,to CHF168.7 billion, boosting the group's national market share to 17.3% from 14.2%.

Exhibit 4

Raiffeisen Group's mortgage book growth has outpaced the Swiss average

10%

11%

12%

13%

14%

15%

16%

17%

18%

19%

20%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Switzerland Mortgage Loan Growth - left axis Raiffeisen Mortgage Loan Growth - left axis Raiffeisen Market Share - right axis

Sources: Swiss National Bank, Moody's Financial Metrics

Raiffeisen Group's problem loan ratio was a very low 0.5% as of half-year 2017 (CHF0.88 billion), a value that is likely to increasethrough the economic cycle. While our central scenario does not assume a sharp decline in residential real estate prices, the risk of aprice decline and a subsequent negative rating migration — which has a meaningful negative impact on the group's asset quality andpotentially its capitalisation — is nevertheless possible, despite the group's very granular loan book.

4 12 December 2017 Raiffeisen Schweiz: Update to credit analysis

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

This increased susceptibility to shocks, potentially emanating from the domestic real estate markets and specifically from higher-riskbuy-to-let exposures, and the group's focus on the more dynamic regions of the Swiss residential real estate markets in urban areas,leads to a three-notch negative adjustment of the bank's Asset Risk score to a1. Maintaining the strong asset quality and strict lendingcriteria throughout the group will remain key to sustaining the bank's BCA at its current level.

Raiffeisen Schweiz is predominantly active in Switzerland, which aligns its Macro Profile with that of its home country. The very highdegree of economic, institutional and government financial strength, and very low susceptibility to event risk thus benefit the bank'sBCA. Together with the relatively high and rising private-sector debt that is well covered by private-sector assets, as well as fundingconditions benefitting from a strong domestic deposit base, and liquid covered bonds and interbank markets, Raiffeisen Schweiz'sMacro Profile stands at Very Strong-. A change in the Swiss Macro Profile to Strong+ could exert pressure on the bank's ratings, allthings being equal.

Low market funding dependence and adequate liquid resourcesRaiffeisen Group's funding profile benefits from its substantial volume of stable deposits (CHF161.0 billion, constituting around 71% ofthe group's liabilities), to which Raiffeisen Schweiz and the local Raiffeisen banks have strong nationwide access. Raiffeisen Schweiz'smarket funding increasingly consists of covered bonds (Pfandbriefe of CHF20.7 billion as of June 2017, up from CHF20.0 billion as ofyear-end 2016), limiting potential interest rate risks for the bank, given the more matched asset-liability profile. The predominantlystable sources of funding and the resulting low dependence on confidence-sensitive market funding sources are reflected in our a1Funding Structure score, which we expect will remain stable over the next 12-18 months.

Raiffeisen Schweiz's Liquid Resources score of baa2 reflects the group's liquid assets of around CHF43 billion as of year-end 2016(consisting of CHF21 billion in cash, CHF12 billion due from banks and CHF10 billion in repo-eligible securities or trading assets),mitigating its exposure to fluctuations in market sentiment. These exposures arise from (1) the bank's slightly elevated loan/deposit of110% as of June 2017; and (2) its improving liquidity buffer, as gross loans represented 78% of the group's balance sheet in the first halfof 2017.

Group-wide profitability metrics under persistent strain owing to the low interest rate environment and competition formarket shareRaiffeisen Group reported a net profit of CHF434 million in H1 2017, up 18.4% from a year earlier. The overall improved result wassupported by the group's slightly improving net interest income of CHF1.1 billion, up 1.0% from a year earlier. However, the group'skey revenue driver, net interest income, failed to keep up with a reported balance sheet growth of 6.8%. The group's reported interestmargins have declined in recent years — to 101 basis points in June 2017 from 106 basis points in 2016 and 112 basis points in 2015— illustrating its growth strategy, in combination with the general market environment, with margins constrained by the low-yieldenvironment. Net commission income was at CHF246 million (up 2.3% from a year earlier). Trading income was at CHF116 million (up24.1% from a year earlier). The cost base increased to CHF1.0 billion, reflecting IT investments (up 4.6% from a year earlier), and riskcharges remained low. These factors are reflected in our ba2 Profitability score.

In coming years, we expect the Swiss Raiffeisen Group to face the challenge of persistently strong competition in the Swiss bankingsystem and continued low interest rates, both of which will strain its net interest income over time. The ongoing competition formarket share may additionally pressure margins further, while rising loan-loss charges could constrain the group's profitabilityprospects. Efficiency gains, however, could result from the revived cooperation with Vontobel Holding AG (A3 stable1) as of June 2016to restore the asset management franchise that should help Raiffeisen Schweiz achieve a more dynamic approach to selling wealthmanagement products to the group's large retail clientele.

Support and structural considerationsLoss Given Failure (LGF) analysisRaiffeisen Schweiz is subject to Swiss banking regulation, which we consider an operational resolution regime. We, therefore, applyour Advanced LGF analysis, considering the risks faced by the different debt and deposit classes across the liability structure atfailure. We assume residual tangible common equity of 3% and losses post-failure of 8% of tangible banking assets, a 25% runoff injunior wholesale deposits and a 5% runoff in preferred deposits, and assign a 100% probability to deposits being preferred to seniorunsecured debt (as reflected in the de facto case in the waterfall below), thereby reflecting depositor preference by law in Switzerland.

5 12 December 2017 Raiffeisen Schweiz: Update to credit analysis

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

We base our LGF analysis on the consolidated group's liabilities at failure because of our assumption that resolution would, uponexhaustion of all statutory and joint support, be based on a full resolution of the entire group, including Raiffeisen Schweiz.

Raiffeisen Schweiz's Aa2 long-term deposit ratings therefore reflect the very low loss given failure for the group's junior deposits,leading to a two-notch uplift from the bank's a2 Adjusted BCA. Conversely, the bank's A2 senior unsecured ratings take into accounttheir high loss given failure, leading to a one-notch reduction from the bank's a2 BCA.

Our LGF analysis further indicates a high loss given failure for subordinated debt classes, leading us to position the ratings one notchbelow the bank's Adjusted BCA. Absent of government support uplift assigned to this particular debt class, Raiffeisen Schweiz'ssubordinated bonds are rated A3.

High-trigger Additional Tier 1 (AT1) securitiesThe Baa3(hyb) rating assigned to the 'high trigger' undated deeply subordinated AT1 notes issued by Raiffeisen Schweiz reflects ourapproach to the rating of these securities, where we rate to the lower of a model-based outcome and a non-viability security rating.This method captures the credit risk associated with the distance to trigger breach and the credit risk of these securities' non-viabilitycomponent, which also captures the risk of coupon suspension on a non-cumulative basis.

Government support considerationsRaiffeisen Schweiz's long-term senior debt and deposit ratings benefit from one additional notch of government support uplift, takinginto account (1) Raiffeisen Group's status as a domestic systemically important financial institution; (2) the bank's large nationwidenetwork, serving around 3.8 million customers, and its position as the second-largest clearer of payments behind PostFinance; and (3)the group's domestic market shares of 17.2% in mortgages as of year-end 2016 and 13.2% in savings as of year-end 2016.

Counterparty Risk (CR) AssessmentThe CR Assessment is an opinion of how counterparty obligations are likely to be treated if a bank fails, and are distinct from debt anddeposit ratings in that they (1) consider only the risk of default rather than both the likelihood of default and the expected financial losssuffered in the event of default, and (2) apply to counterparty obligations and contractual commitments rather than debt or depositinstruments. The CR Assessment is an opinion of the counterparty risk related to a bank's covered bonds, contractual performanceobligations (servicing), derivatives (for example, swaps), letters of credit, guarantees and liquidity facilities.

Raiffeisen Schweiz's CR Assessment is positioned at A1(cr)/P-1(cr)The bank's CR Assessment is positioned one notch above the bank's a2 Adjusted BCA. This positioning reflects the depositorpreference in Switzerland, and the resulting rank ordering of Counterparty Risk exposures below deposits, and the moderate volumeof instruments ranking below Counterparty Risk exposures, such as senior debt and equity, which is insufficient to reduce the expectedloss to a level that would warrant uplift from the Adjusted BCA. The CR Assessment, however, benefits from one notch of governmentsupport uplift.

6 12 December 2017 Raiffeisen Schweiz: Update to credit analysis

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

About Moody's Bank ScorecardOur scorecard is designed to capture, express and explain in summary form our Rating Committee's judgment. When read inconjunction with our research, a fulsome presentation of our judgment is expressed. As a result, the output of our scorecardmay materially differ from that suggested by raw data alone (though it has been calibrated to avoid the frequent need for strongdivergence). The scorecard output and the individual scores are discussed in rating committees and may be adjusted up or down toreflect conditions specific to each rated entity.

7 12 December 2017 Raiffeisen Schweiz: Update to credit analysis

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Rating methodology and scorecard factors

Exhibit 5

Raiffeisen-GruppeMacro FactorsWeighted Macro Profile Very

Strong -100%

Factor HistoricRatio

MacroAdjusted

Score

CreditTrend

Assigned Score Key driver #1 Key driver #2

SolvencyAsset RiskProblem Loans / Gross Loans 0.5% aa1 ← → a1 Loan growth Expected trend

CapitalTCE / RWA 15.3% aa2 ← → aa3 Stress capital

resilienceExpected trend

ProfitabilityNet Income / Tangible Assets 0.4% ba2 ← → ba2 Earnings quality Expected trend

Combined Solvency Score a1 a2LiquidityFunding StructureMarket Funds / Tangible Banking Assets 14.3% a1 ← → a1 Market

funding qualityExpected trend

Liquid ResourcesLiquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets 17.4% baa2 ← → baa2 Quality of

liquid assetsExpected trend

Combined Liquidity Score a3 a3Financial Profile a2

Business Diversification 0Opacity and Complexity 0Corporate Behavior 0

Total Qualitative Adjustments 0Sovereign or Affiliate constraint: AaaScorecard Calculated BCA range a1-a3Assigned BCA a2Affiliate Support notching 0Adjusted BCA a2

Balance Sheet in-scope(CHF million)

% in-scope at-failure(CHF million)

% at-failure

Other liabilities 44,665 20.5% 61,189 28.0%Deposits 161,994 74.3% 145,471 66.7%

Preferred deposits 119,876 54.9% 113,882 52.2%Junior Deposits 42,118 19.3% 31,589 14.5%

Senior unsecured bank debt 3,869 1.8% 3,869 1.8%Dated subordinated bank debt 535 0.2% 535 0.2%Preference shares (bank) 549 0.3% 549 0.3%Equity 6,545 3.0% 6,545 3.0%Total Tangible Banking Assets 218,157 100% 218,157 100%

8 12 December 2017 Raiffeisen Schweiz: Update to credit analysis

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

De Jure waterfall De Facto waterfall NotchingDebt classInstrumentvolume +

subordination

Sub-ordination

Instrumentvolume +

subordination

Sub-ordination

De Jure De FactoLGF

NotchingGuidance

vs.Adjusted

BCA

AssignedLGF

notching

Additionalnotching

PreliminaryRating

Assessment

Counterparty Risk Assessment 5.3% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3% 0 0 0 0 0 a2 (cr)Deposits 19.8% 5.3% 19.8% 5.3% 2 2 2 2 0 aa3Senior unsecured bank debt 5.3% 3.5% 5.3% 3.5% -1 -1 -1 -1 0 a3Dated subordinated bank debt 3.5% 3.3% 3.5% 3.3% -1 -1 -1 -1 0 a3Non-cumulative bank preference shares 3.3% 3.0% 3.3% 3.0% -1 -1 -1 -1 -3 baa3 (hyb)

Instrument class Loss GivenFailure notching

AdditionalNotching

Preliminary RatingAssessment

GovernmentSupport notching

Local CurrencyRating

ForeignCurrency

RatingCounterparty Risk Assessment 0 0 a2 (cr) 1 A1 (cr) --Deposits 2 0 aa3 1 Aa2 Aa2Senior unsecured bank debt -1 0 a3 1 A2 --Dated subordinated bank debt -1 0 a3 0 A3 --Non-cumulative bank preference shares -1 -3 baa3 (hyb) 0 Baa3 (hyb) --Source: Moody's Financial Metrics

Ratings

Exhibit 6Category Moody's RatingRAIFFEISEN SCHWEIZ

Outlook StableBank Deposits Aa2/P-1Baseline Credit Assessment a2Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment a2Counterparty Risk Assessment A1(cr)/P-1(cr)Senior Unsecured -Dom Curr A2Subordinate -Dom Curr A3Pref. Stock Non-cumulative -Dom Curr Baa3 (hyb)

Source: Moody's Investors Service

9 12 December 2017 Raiffeisen Schweiz: Update to credit analysis

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Endnotes1 Vontobel Holding's rating shown is its long-term issuer rating and outlook

10 12 December 2017 Raiffeisen Schweiz: Update to credit analysis

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Additional terms for Japan only: Moody's Japan K.K. (“MJKK”) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody's Group Japan G.K., which is wholly-owned by Moody’sOverseas Holdings Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO. Moody’s SF Japan K.K. (“MSFJ”) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of MJKK. MSFJ is not a NationallyRecognized Statistical Rating Organization (“NRSRO”). Therefore, credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings. Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings are assigned by anentity that is not a NRSRO and, consequently, the rated obligation will not qualify for certain types of treatment under U.S. laws. MJKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies registeredwith the Japan Financial Services Agency and their registration numbers are FSA Commissioner (Ratings) No. 2 and 3 respectively.

MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferredstock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have, prior to assignment of any rating, agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for appraisal and rating services rendered by it feesranging from JPY200,000 to approximately JPY350,000,000.

MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements.

REPORT NUMBER 1100353

11 12 December 2017 Raiffeisen Schweiz: Update to credit analysis

Page 12: Moody's credit opinion as of December 12, 2017 - Raiffeisen · When assessing Raiffeisen Schweiz's credit profile and because of its importance to the Raiffeisen Group in combination

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Contributors

Mark C JenkinsonAssociate Analyst

CLIENT SERVICES

Americas 1-212-553-1653

Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077

Japan 81-3-5408-4100

EMEA 44-20-7772-5454

12 12 December 2017 Raiffeisen Schweiz: Update to credit analysis