monthly report july 13, 2011 oil seeds - …s3.amazonaws.com/zanran_storage/€¦completion,...
TRANSCRIPT
2
OVERVIEW
Tracking past month price movements, oilseeds complex are still trapped
under the bearish sentiments created by lower crude oil prices & dis-
heartening world economic sentiments. Adding to this, the full
advancement of monsoon has increased the prospects of higher
production of oilseeds. In the international market too, after February
2011, prices for oilseeds and derived products have eased. This was a
response to the temporary slow-down in import demand and improved
production prospects for soybeans and palm oil as well as for rape and
sun? ower seed.
Sowing progress
With the onset of good monsoon, soya processors and farmers are
expecting a good crop this year too. Processors expect the acreage in
Madhya Pradesh — known as the soya bowl of India — to touch more
than 5.5 million hectare. According to Soyabean Processors Association
of India, an Indore-based organisation that releases soya crop related
estimates and data, “Soya is likely to cross more than 10 million hectare of
acreage this year too.” On the other hand, Madhya Pradesh state
government is likely to set a target of 5.55 million hectare acreage.
Soybeans sowing in Madhya Pradesh, the largest producing state in the
country and Rajasthan, is continuing well and is close to 80% of
completion, according to a latest update from the Soybean Processors
Association of India (SOPA) . The crop conditions are being rated as
excellent as well. However, the sowing in Maharshatra is lagging and it is
expected to pick up in next few weeks.
However, according to the government data overall area under major
kharif crops down in 2011-12, has declined by 36 per cent to 7.43 lakh
hectares so far in the current season against 11.69 hectares in the same
period last year.
Market movements ahead……..
a) Refined soy oil: Refined soy oil futures (August) is likely to gather the
bearish spill-over effects of crude oil. Prices may see some range-bound
moves. The counter may remain slippery facing resistance at 650 levels.
However, the downside may remain capped finding some support at 630
levels.
b) Soybean: Soybean futures (August) is likely to remain downside.
Breaking the support of 2280, the beans may attract some more selling. The
counter has a resistance at 2370 levels. The reason being that farmers getting
more & more engaged in sowing of kharif crop, require funds. Therefore,
they may sell their old stocks to generate some cash from markets.
Price chart of Soybean, Mustard & Ref. Soyoil futures
Price chart of Ref. Soyoil futures
Price chart of Soybean futures
Source: Reuters
Source: Reuters
Source: Reuters
Refine Soyoil futuresSoybean futures Mustard futures
3
Moreover, soy meal exports figures falling by around 80% (Dec '10 to
June'11) may continue to keep a leash on the price. During the month of
June '11, exports to various destinations around world have seen a
downfall of 33% as compared to previous month. The reason being is
that major importing countries Japan (>35%) & Vietnam (>65%) have
curbed their imports.
c) Mustard: Mustard futures (August) may remain range-bound below
2900 levels. Breaking the weekly support at 2860 levels, the counter may
move towards 2800 in days to come. Factors like hefty stock positions,
negative crush margins & month on month lower exports may continue
to lend bearish sentiments to the prices.
d) Crude Palm Oil: Crude palm oil (CPO) price is likely to fall over the
next few weeks due to rising inventory and decreasing demand. Malaysia's
CPO stock and production, which have been climbing since the
beginning of the year, are playing their part to further suppress the CPO
price. The counter breaking the support at 460 levels, may see some more
downside levels.
Crude oil…. age-old friendship
Price chart of Mustard futures
Price chart of Crude palm oil futures
Price chart of Crude palm oil futures (BMD)
T a k i n g i n t o
consideration the
age-old friendship
between crude oil
prices & oilseeds
c o m p l e x , t h e
counters, especially
refined soyoil &
CPO may continue
to attract the sell-
off waves from
bearish oil prices. Tracking recent developments, crude oil prices fell heavily
after the jobs report showed U.S. employers added only 18,000 jobs in June
well below expectations of 105,000 added jobs, which spread pessimism
among traders and increased risk aversion in markets. Moreover, crude
prices are pushing aggressively lower as risk sentiment fades, with markets
finding the toxic mix of deepening contagion to the Euro Zone debt crisis
and the prospect of accelerated rate hikes in China. If these kind of
pessimism continues to dominate oil markets, we should expect crude oil
prices to remain under pressure.
The Dig Daddy…… “Dollar Index”
Adding to all these, Investors should also keep a watch on the dollar index.
The charts depict a rally in the making in the index. The index trying to
break the major resistance at 76, has a potential to touch 77.5-78 in the
medium term, which could be a threat for commodities markets.
Source: Reuters
Source: Reuters
Source: Reuters
Source: Reuters
4
EXIM SCENARIO
Oilmeal exports rose 58 per cent in June, due to increased availability
from domestic crushers and higher overseas demand. Exports during
June were 250,335 tonnes as compared to 158,750 tonnes in the
corresponding month last year. The export of oilmeal during April-
June doubled to 1.07 million tonnes as compared to 536,700 tonnes
during the same period of the previous year.
Country wise….
?Japan: Oilmeal import by Japan from India during April-June
more than doubled to 240,808 tonnes as compared to 91,389
tonnes last year, consisting of 235,405 tonnes of soybean meal
and 5,403 tonnes of rapeseed meal.
?Vietnam: Vietnam has imported 137,010 tonnes of oilmeal so
far this year, as compared to 69,939 tonnes in the same period last
year consisting of 110,693 tonnes of soybean meal, 10,197
tonnes of rapeseed meal and remaining quantity being rice bran
extraction.
?China: China imported 162,060 tonnes as compared to 125,745
tonnes, comprising 156,354 tonnes of rapeseed meal, 2,288
tonnes of groundnut meal and 3,418 tonnes of soybean meal.
?South Korea: South Korea imported 173,064 tonnes as
compared to 98,712 tonnes last year, consisting of 76,668 tonnes
of castorseed meal, 94,050 tonnes of rapeseed meal and 2,346
tonnes of soybean meal.
?Europe: Europe imported 43,774 tonnes compared to 738
tonnes last year.
Move of China…….
As per latest data release from China General Administration of
Customs, China's soybean imports in June declined by 31% on year to
4.3 million metric tonnes. While total imports from January to June
plunged by 8% to 23.71 million tonnes.
Month-wise Soymeal Export
602646057598400
166632176138
290868
404960443488
611157574996
540360
410537
305033
176819117600
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
Source: SEA of India
219239
599452
374751
227513
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
April-June 2010 April-June 2011 April-June 2010 April-June 2011
Soymeal Rape meal
Period-wise comparison of Oilmeal Exports
Source: SEA of India
117778
64583
4515253208
64243
40390
80758
41604
110237
42409
147655
128221
142232
130082
102437
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Month-wise Rapeseed meal Export
Source: SEA of India
China's import by Quantity & Value, April 2011 (in 10000 MT)
Quantity Value Quantity Value Quantity Value Quantity ValueSoybean 430 2462697 2371 13673832 2580 11411378 -8.1 19.8
Edible Vegetale oil 47 584579 270 3125021 317 2614741 -14.9 19.5
June Jan till June in totalTotal same period
in 2010Total Y-o-Y (%)
Source: www.e-to-china.com
(In Metric Tonnes)
(In Metric Tonnes)
(In Metric Tonnes)
5
3418 2346
31876
2960
110693
41490
915
11059
235405
5045 4222 1377 385705
927
10929
76787
11596 10000
80
32584
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Qty. in MTCountry-wise Soymeal Export (June 2011)
156354
94050
32978
10197
36166
2049 12475403
109
14645
209 1091 11768577 10500
50
20050
40050
60050
80050
100050
120050
140050
160050
180050
China South Korea
Thailand Vietnam Indonesia Malaysia Sri Lanka Japan Singapore Taiwan U.A.E Oman Kuwait Iran Turkey
Qty. in MT
Country-wise Rapemeal Export (June 2011)
Source: SEA of India
Source: SEA of India
6
Malaysia Palm Oil Industry Performance for June
A rise in Malaysian palm oil exports to their highest since 2008
showed signs of tailing off. Malaysia's palm oil stocks rose 6.8% to
2.05m tonnes, month on month, in June, official data showed.
However, the inventory figure, while the highest in 18 months, came
in some 80,000 tonnes short of forecasts, restrained by exports which
rose 12.4% to 1.58m tonnes. The figure for shipments was the highest
since December 2008, and helped by price declines for the vegetable
oil last month, alongside those of other agricultural commodities, at a
time when demand from importers is often strong ahead of the
Ramadan festival.
India factor
However, data from cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance
showed Malaysian palm exports falling 3.3% so far this month,
weakened in particular by shipments to the US and to India, which
vies with India for top rank in vegetable oil imports. Exports to India,
which at 44,500 tonnes so far in July were down nearly 50% on those
during the first 10 days of June, are coming under seasonal pressure.
India is starting the crush of its own harvest of oilseeds such as
rapeseed.
Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for July 1-10 fell 3.3 percent
to 398,280 tonnes from 411,852 tonnes shipped during June 1-10,
cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said on Monday.
Breakdown of SGS palm export figures for July 1-10 compared
to a month ago (in tonnes):
The following table shows Malaysia's palm oil production, stocks,
exports and imports for June according to the Malaysian Palm Oil
Board.
78,025
35,637
199,025
40,569
13,564 9,650
91,235
57,885
173,517
47,100
2,000
16,269
6,2551,000
51,000
101,000
151,000
201,000
251,000
Crude palm oil
RBD palm oil
RBD palm olein
RBD palm
stearin
Crude palm
kernel oil
Processed palm
kernel oil
Oleochemicals
in tonnes
Break Down Of Palm Products Exports
July 1-10 June 1-10
38,925
124,252
50,000
10,850
44,500
31,455
94,955
16,385
60,570
82,250
10,000
30,000
50,000
70,000
90,000
110,000
130,000
European UnionChina Pakistan United States India
in tonnes
Top Palm Markets
July 1-10 June 1-10
Stocks (Thousand tonnes)
2052.901923.00
1671.10 1614.501481.40 1418.70
1092.90 1078.10943.80 918.30
789.60
625.30
0.00
500.00
1000.00
1500.00
2000.00
2500.00
June'11 May '11 April '11 March '11 Feb. '11 Jan. '11
Palm Oil Crude Palm Oil Source: MPOB
1753.20 1741.80
1530.001416.40
1094.30 1058.00
0.00
200.00
400.00
600.00
800.00
1000.00
1200.00
1400.00
1600.00
1800.00
2000.00
June'11 May '11 April '11 March '11 Feb. '11 Jan. '11
Crude Palm Oil Production (Thousand tonnes)
Source: MPOB
1581.30
1406.301344.70
1235.30
1114.50
1218.20
0.00
200.00
400.00
600.00
800.00
1000.00
1200.00
1400.00
1600.00
1800.00
June'11 May '11 April '11 March '11 Feb. '11 Jan. '11
Export of Palm Oil (Thousand tonnes)
Source: MPOB
Source: ReutersSource: Reuters
7
Malaysia Palm Oil Industry Performance for June (Data tables)
Source: Bloomberg
Stock (MoM%)
Production (MoM%) June May April March Feb. Jan.
Crude Palm Oil 0.65% 13.85% 8.02% 29.43% 3.44% -14.18%
Palm Kernel -2.25% 11.41% 5.18% 31.95% 4.78% -12.09%
Crude Palm Kernel Oil 0.87% 11.23% 7.13% 37.18% -7.17% -17.02%
Production (MoM%)
Production (MoM%) June May April March Feb. Jan.
Palm Oil 12.44% 4.58% 8.86% 10.83% -8.51% -5.66%
Palm Kernel Oil 7.36% -13.70% 2.92% 23.88% 18.97% -39.86%
Export (MoM%)
Production (MoM%) June May April March Feb. Jan.
Crude Palm Oil -3.50% 52.82% -54.63% -29.55% 18.36% 49.23%
Processed Palm Oil 47.06% 313.37% 136.59% -26.02% -69.72% -56.54%
Import (MoM%)
Production (MoM%) June May April March Feb. Jan.
Total Palm Oil 41.46% 23.09% 2.99% -2.49% -17.20% -29.18%
Crude Palm Oil 52.74% 32.45% 11.75% 8.03% -15.55% -44.80%
Processed Palm Oil 30.50% 12.90% -6.52% -13.60% -19.01% -8.84%
Palm Kernel 47.47% 59.64% 45.20% 18.97% 2.15% -10.23%
Crude Palm Kernel Oil 51.28% 27.40% -1.65% 24.04% 9.11% -29.75%
Stock (YoY%)
Production (YoY%)
Crude Palm Oil 23.48% 25.73% 17.13% 2.11% -5.40% -19.93%
Palm Kernel 25.32% 27.34% 16.02% 1.00% -6.00% -22.35%
Crude Palm Kernel Oil 27.60% 21.94% 7.99% -5.11% -12.18% -26.52%
June May April March Feb. Jan.
Production (YoY%)
Export (YoY%)
Palm Oil 9.51% 2.98% 4.61% -11.57% -13.94% -16.66%
Palm Kernel Oil 49.92% -25.23% 11.00% 1.94% -21.77% -37.68%
June May April March Feb. Jan.
Export (YoY%)
Import (YoY%)
Crude Palm Oil 46.43% -17.25% -43.13% 272.92% 271.35% 13.61%
Processed Palm Oil 2945.62% 282.28% -31.86% -89.98% -85.35% -59.88%
June May April March Feb. Jan.
Import (YoY%)
Production (MoM%) June May April March Feb. Jan.
Total Palm Oil 6.75% 15.07% 3.51% 8.98% 4.42% -12.19%
Crude Palm Oil 1.37% 14.23% 2.78% 16.30% 26.28% -11.97%
Processed Palm Oil 13.62% 16.17% 4.47% 0.63% -12.80% -12.36%
Palm Kernel -1.04% 9.44% 14.27% 17.50% 22.65% -5.24%
Crude Palm Kernel Oil 18.39% 4.25% -13.31% 4.15% 24.24% -12.67%
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
8
Stock (Thousand tonnes)
Production (MoM%) June May April March Feb. Jan.
Palm Oil 2,052.90 1,923.00 1,671.10 1,614.50 1,481.40 1,418.70
Crude Palm Oil 1,092.90 1,078.10 943.8 918.3 789.6 625.3
Processed Palm Oil 959.9 844.9 727.3 696.2 691.8 793.4
Palm Kernel 157.1 158.7 145 126.9 108 88.1
Crude Palm Kernel Oil 161.9 136.8 131.2 151.3 145.3 116.9
Source: Bloomberg
Production (MoM%) June May April March Feb. Jan.
Crude Palm Oil 1,753.20 1,741.80 1,530.00 1,416.40 1,094.30 1,058.00
Palm Kernel 422 431.7 387.5 368.4 279.2 266.5
Crude Palm Kernel Oil 194.3 192.6 173.2 161.7 117.8 126.9
Production (Thousand tonnes)
Source: Bloomberg
Production (MoM%) June May April March Feb. Jan.
Palm Oil 1,581.30 1,406.30 1,344.70 1,235.30 1,114.50 1,218.20
Palm Kernel Oil 90.3 84.1 97.4 94.7 76.4 64.3
Export (Thousand tonnes)
Source: Bloomberg
Production (MoM%) June May April March Feb. Jan.
Crude Palm Oil 88.3 91.5 59.9 132 187.4 158.3
Processed Palm Oil 21.2 14.4 3.5 1.5 2 6.6
Import (Thousand tonnes)
Source: Bloomberg
Source: www.palmoilhq.com
9
Snap shot of World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (June 2011)
·U.S. oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 96.3 million tons, down 2.3 million tons from last month, with lower soybean
production accounting for most of the change.
·Soybean production is projected at 3.225 billion bushels, down 60 million due to reduced harvested area.
·Harvested area, estimated at 74.3 million acres in the June 30 acreage report, is 1.4 million below the June projection.
·The soybean yield is projected at 43.4 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month.
·Soybean supplies are 40 million bushels below last months forecast as higher beginning stocks partly offset lower production.
·Exports for 2011/12 are reduced 25 million bushels to 1.495 billion reflecting lower U.S. supplies, increased supplies in South America this
fall, and reduced global imports.
·U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 175 million bushels, down 15 million.
·U.S. soybean exports for 2010/11 are projected at 1.52 billion bushels, down 20 million from last month in part reflecting lower projected
imports for China.
·Soybean ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected at 200 million bushels, up 20 million.
·The 2011/12 U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at a record $12.00 to $14.00 per bushel, down $1.00 on both ends of the range.
·Soybean meal prices are projected at $345 to $375 per short ton, down $30 on both ends of the range.
·Soybean oil prices are projected at 54 to 58 cents per pound, down 4 cents on both ends of the range.
·Global oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 455.5 million tons, down 1.4 million from last month. Lower soybean, peanut, and
rapeseed production estimates are only partly offset by increases for sunflowerseed.
·Global soybean production is projected at 261.5 million tons, down 1.3 million mostly due to lower production in the United States.
·Higher soybean production for Russia resulting from increased area partly offsets the U.S. reduction.
·Rapeseed production is reduced for Canada due to lower harvested area.
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds
Proj. Supply Use Stocks
Oilseeds June 456.89 531.62 115.20 389.58 71.12 -0.38
July 455.51 531.25 113.88 389.83 70.74
Oilmeals June 266.58 274.64 79.16 263.82 8.01 -0.06
July 266.39 274.29 79.09 263.28 7.95
Vegetable Oils June 151.47 162.68 62.47 150.72 9.68 0.49
July 151.69 162.91 62.74 150.28 10.17
2010/11 Output Total Trade Total Ending Change
World U.S
Source: USDASource: USDA
Proj. Supply Use Stocks
Oilseeds June 98.68 105.84 42.29 49.37 6.29 -0.53
July 96.34 104.34 41.44 49.31 5.76
Oilmeals June 38.08 40.37 8.04 31.99 0.33 0.00
38.04 40.33 7.96 32.04 0.33
Vegetable Oils June 9.77 14.90 1.30 12.20 1.40 0.02
9.78 15.09 1.24 12.43 1.42
2010/11 Output Total Trade Total Ending Change
July
July
(Million Metric Tons) (Million Metric Tons)
10
U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use
SOYBEANS 2010/11 Proj.
June July Difference
Million Acres
Area Planted 76.60 75.20 -1.40
Area Harvested 75.70 74.30 -1.40
Filler Bushels
Yield per Harvested Acre 43.4 43.4 0.00
Million Bushels
Beginning Stocks 180.00 200.00 20.00
Production 3285.00 3225.00 -60.00
Imports 15.00 15.00 0.00
Supply, Total 3480.00 3440.00 -40.00
Crushings 1655.00 1655.00 0.00
Exports 1520.00 1495.00 -25.00
Seed 90.00 90.00 0.00
Residual 25.00 25.00 0.00
Use, Total 3290.00 3264.00 -26.00
Ending Stocks 190.00 175.00 -15.00
Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 2/ 13.00 - 15.00 12.00 - 14.00Source: USDA
SOYBEAN OIL 2010/11 Proj.
June July Difference
Beginning Stocks 2823.00 2871.00 48.00Production 18900.00 18900.00 0.00Imports 185.00 185.00 0.00Supply, Total 21908.00 21956.00 48.00Domestic 17950.00 17950.00 0.00For Methyl Ester 3500.00 3500.00 0.00Food, Feed & other Industrial 14450.00 14450.00 0.00Exports 1800.00 1800.00 0.00Use, Total 19750.00 19750.00 0.00Ending stocks 2158.00 2206.00 48.00Avg. Farm Price (c/lb) 2/ 58.00 - 62.00 54.00 - 58.00
Million Acres
Source: USDA
SOYBEAN MEAL 2010/11 Proj.
July Difference
Tons
Beginning Stocks 300.00 300.00 0.00
Production 39285.00 39285.00 0.00
Imports 165.00 165.00 0.00
Supply, Total 39750.00 39750.00 0.00
Domestic 30800.00 30900.00 100.00
Exports 8650.00 8550.00 -100.00
Use, Total 39450.00 39450.00 0.00
Ending Stocks 300.00 300.00 0.00
Avg. Farm Price ($/s.t.) 2/ 375.00 - 405.00 345.00 - 375.00
June
Source: USDA
Month wise Projections Beginning Stocks Production Imports Domestic Crush Domestic Total Exports Ending Stocks
World 2/ Jun 64.53 262.79 96.24 232.90 263.21 98.75 61.59
July 65.88 261.45 94.87 232.36 262.65 97.58 61.97
United States Jun 4.90 89.40 0.41 45.04 48.17 41.37 5.18
July 5.44 87.77 0.41 45.04 48.15 40.69 4.78
Total Foreign Jun 59.63 173.38 95.83 187.85 215.04 57.38 56.42
July 60.44 173.68 94.46 187.31 214.50 56.89 57.19
Major Exporters 3/ Jun 41.78 133.00 0.07 78.95 84.20 51.30 39.35
July 43.38 133.00 0.07 78.95 84.20 50.80 41.45
Argentina Jun 22.15 53.00 0.00 40.00 41.65 11.80 21.70
July 22.85 53.00 0.00 40.00 41.65 11.30 22.90
Brazil Jun 19.42 72.50 0.05 37.10 40.50 34.00 17.47
July 20.31 72.50 0.05 37.10 40.50 34.00 18.36
Major Importers 4/ Jun 16.14 16.63 82.73 83.10 99.48 0.36 15.66
July 15.23 16.63 81.36 82.32 98.70 0.36 14.16
China Jun 15.21 14.30 58.00 61.50 72.50 0.30 14.71
July 14.21 14.30 56.50 60.60 71.60 0.30 13.11
EU-27 Jun 0.50 1.10 13.30 13.20 14.40 0.03 0.47
July 0.50 1.10 13.30 13.20 14.40 0.03 0.47
Japan Jun 0.22 0.22 3.40 2.37 3.60 0.00 0.25
July 0.21 0.22 3.40 2.36 3.59 0.00 0.25
Mexico Jun 0.05 0.11 3.75 3.80 3.84 0.00 0.07
July 0.05 0.11 3.75 3.80 3.84 0.00 0.07
2010/11 Proj. World Soybean Supply and Use (Million Metric Tons)
Source: USDA
Beginning Stocks Production Imports Domestic Total Exports Ending Stocks
Jun 6.77 183.66 59.14 181.78 61.07 6.71World 2/July 6.57 183.22 58.99 181.25 60.93 6.60Jun 0.27 35.64 0.15 27.94 7.85 0.27
United StatesJuly 0.27 35.64 0.15 28.03 7.76 0.27Jun 6.50 148.02 58.99 153.84 53.23 6.44
Total ForeignJuly 6.30 147.58 58.84 153.22 53.17 6.33
Jun 4.67 66.98 0.06 17.91 48.97 4.82Major Exporters 3/July 4.35 66.98 0.06 17.91 48.97 4.51Jun 1.96 31.21 0.00 0.74 30.22 2.21ArgentinaJuly 1.87 31.21 0.00 0.74 30.22 2.12
Jun 2.50 28.75 0.05 13.95 14.85 2.50BrazilJuly 2.28 28.75 0.05 13.95 14.85 2.28
Jun 0.21 7.03 0.01 3.23 3.90 0.11IndiaJuly 0.21 7.03 0.01 3.23 3.90 0.11Jun 0.77 60.95 32.60 92.36 1.30 0.66Major Importers 4/July 0.75 60.32 32.55 91.68 1.20 0.74
EU-27 Jun 0.39 10.40 23.30 33.36 0.45 0.28July 0.36 10.40 23.30 33.26 0.45 0.35
China Jun 0.00 48.71 0.35 48.26 0.80 0.00July 0.00 48.00 0.30 47.60 0.70 0.00
Month wise Projections
2010/11 Proj. World Soybean Meal Supply and Use (Million Metric Tons)
Source: USDA
11
Beginning Stocks Production Imports Domestic Total Exports Ending Stocks
World 2/ Jun 3.13 43.39 8.91 43.71 9.34 2.38July 3.07 43.29 8.76 43.27 9.36 2.48
United States Jun 1.28 8.57 0.08 8.14 0.82 0.98July 1.30 8.57 0.08 8.14 0.82 1.00
Total Foreign Jun 1.85 34.81 8.83 35.56 8.52 1.41July 1.76 34.71 8.68 35.13 8.55 1.48
Major Exporters 3/ Jun 0.82 17.14 0.75 10.92 7.14 0.65July 0.75 17.14 0.75 10.81 7.14 0.68
Argentina Jun 0.22 7.61 0.00 2.50 5.13 0.19July 0.25 7.61 0.00 2.50 5.13 0.22
Brazil Jun 0.35 7.12 0.00 5.55 1.66 0.26July 0.27 7.12 0.00 5.48 1.66 0.26
EU-27 Jun 0.26 2.41 0.75 2.87 0.35 0.20July 0.23 2.41 0.75 2.84 0.35 0.20
Major Importers 4/ Jun 0.45 12.58 2.69 15.40 0.04 0.27July 0.45 12.42 2.54 15.04 0.04 0.32
China Jun 0.18 11.01 1.85 12.82 0.04 0.18July 0.18 10.85 1.70 12.45 0.04 0.23
India Jun 0.27 1.57 0.80 2.55 0.00 0.09July 0.27 1.57 0.80 2.55 0.00 0.09
Pakistan Jun 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.04 0.00 0.00July 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.04 0.00 0.00
Month wise Projections
2010/11 Proj. World Soybean Meal Oil Supply and Use (Million Metric Tons)
Source: USDA
12
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
2150.00
2200.00
2250.00
2300.00
2350.00
2400.00
2450.00
2500.00
Volume Close Price Open Interest
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
2650.00
2700.00
2750.00
2800.00
2850.00
2900.00
2950.00
3000.00
PVO Analysis of RM Seed (July)futures
Volume Close Price Open Interest
PVO Analysis of Soybean futures (July)
Source: SMC Research
Source: SMC Research
-140.00
-120.00
-100.00
-80.00
-60.00
-40.00
-20.00
0.00
20.00
40.00
Basis (Alwar ) Basis (Jaipur) Basis (Sriganganagar )
13
-140.00
-120.00
-100.00
-80.00
-60.00
-40.00
-20.00
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
BASIS (SOYBEAN)
Basis (Indore ) Basis (Kota) Basis (Nagpur)
BASIS (RM seed)
Source: SMC Research
Source: SMC Research
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