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July 13, 2011

Monthly Report

Oil Seeds

Subhranil Dey

Research Analyst

[email protected]

2

OVERVIEW

Tracking past month price movements, oilseeds complex are still trapped

under the bearish sentiments created by lower crude oil prices & dis-

heartening world economic sentiments. Adding to this, the full

advancement of monsoon has increased the prospects of higher

production of oilseeds. In the international market too, after February

2011, prices for oilseeds and derived products have eased. This was a

response to the temporary slow-down in import demand and improved

production prospects for soybeans and palm oil as well as for rape and

sun? ower seed.

Sowing progress

With the onset of good monsoon, soya processors and farmers are

expecting a good crop this year too. Processors expect the acreage in

Madhya Pradesh — known as the soya bowl of India — to touch more

than 5.5 million hectare. According to Soyabean Processors Association

of India, an Indore-based organisation that releases soya crop related

estimates and data, “Soya is likely to cross more than 10 million hectare of

acreage this year too.” On the other hand, Madhya Pradesh state

government is likely to set a target of 5.55 million hectare acreage.

Soybeans sowing in Madhya Pradesh, the largest producing state in the

country and Rajasthan, is continuing well and is close to 80% of

completion, according to a latest update from the Soybean Processors

Association of India (SOPA) . The crop conditions are being rated as

excellent as well. However, the sowing in Maharshatra is lagging and it is

expected to pick up in next few weeks.

However, according to the government data overall area under major

kharif crops down in 2011-12, has declined by 36 per cent to 7.43 lakh

hectares so far in the current season against 11.69 hectares in the same

period last year.

Market movements ahead……..

a) Refined soy oil: Refined soy oil futures (August) is likely to gather the

bearish spill-over effects of crude oil. Prices may see some range-bound

moves. The counter may remain slippery facing resistance at 650 levels.

However, the downside may remain capped finding some support at 630

levels.

b) Soybean: Soybean futures (August) is likely to remain downside.

Breaking the support of 2280, the beans may attract some more selling. The

counter has a resistance at 2370 levels. The reason being that farmers getting

more & more engaged in sowing of kharif crop, require funds. Therefore,

they may sell their old stocks to generate some cash from markets.

Price chart of Soybean, Mustard & Ref. Soyoil futures

Price chart of Ref. Soyoil futures

Price chart of Soybean futures

Source: Reuters

Source: Reuters

Source: Reuters

Refine Soyoil futuresSoybean futures Mustard futures

3

Moreover, soy meal exports figures falling by around 80% (Dec '10 to

June'11) may continue to keep a leash on the price. During the month of

June '11, exports to various destinations around world have seen a

downfall of 33% as compared to previous month. The reason being is

that major importing countries Japan (>35%) & Vietnam (>65%) have

curbed their imports.

c) Mustard: Mustard futures (August) may remain range-bound below

2900 levels. Breaking the weekly support at 2860 levels, the counter may

move towards 2800 in days to come. Factors like hefty stock positions,

negative crush margins & month on month lower exports may continue

to lend bearish sentiments to the prices.

d) Crude Palm Oil: Crude palm oil (CPO) price is likely to fall over the

next few weeks due to rising inventory and decreasing demand. Malaysia's

CPO stock and production, which have been climbing since the

beginning of the year, are playing their part to further suppress the CPO

price. The counter breaking the support at 460 levels, may see some more

downside levels.

Crude oil…. age-old friendship

Price chart of Mustard futures

Price chart of Crude palm oil futures

Price chart of Crude palm oil futures (BMD)

T a k i n g i n t o

consideration the

age-old friendship

between crude oil

prices & oilseeds

c o m p l e x , t h e

counters, especially

refined soyoil &

CPO may continue

to attract the sell-

off waves from

bearish oil prices. Tracking recent developments, crude oil prices fell heavily

after the jobs report showed U.S. employers added only 18,000 jobs in June

well below expectations of 105,000 added jobs, which spread pessimism

among traders and increased risk aversion in markets. Moreover, crude

prices are pushing aggressively lower as risk sentiment fades, with markets

finding the toxic mix of deepening contagion to the Euro Zone debt crisis

and the prospect of accelerated rate hikes in China. If these kind of

pessimism continues to dominate oil markets, we should expect crude oil

prices to remain under pressure.

The Dig Daddy…… “Dollar Index”

Adding to all these, Investors should also keep a watch on the dollar index.

The charts depict a rally in the making in the index. The index trying to

break the major resistance at 76, has a potential to touch 77.5-78 in the

medium term, which could be a threat for commodities markets.

Source: Reuters

Source: Reuters

Source: Reuters

Source: Reuters

4

EXIM SCENARIO

Oilmeal exports rose 58 per cent in June, due to increased availability

from domestic crushers and higher overseas demand. Exports during

June were 250,335 tonnes as compared to 158,750 tonnes in the

corresponding month last year. The export of oilmeal during April-

June doubled to 1.07 million tonnes as compared to 536,700 tonnes

during the same period of the previous year.

Country wise….

?Japan: Oilmeal import by Japan from India during April-June

more than doubled to 240,808 tonnes as compared to 91,389

tonnes last year, consisting of 235,405 tonnes of soybean meal

and 5,403 tonnes of rapeseed meal.

?Vietnam: Vietnam has imported 137,010 tonnes of oilmeal so

far this year, as compared to 69,939 tonnes in the same period last

year consisting of 110,693 tonnes of soybean meal, 10,197

tonnes of rapeseed meal and remaining quantity being rice bran

extraction.

?China: China imported 162,060 tonnes as compared to 125,745

tonnes, comprising 156,354 tonnes of rapeseed meal, 2,288

tonnes of groundnut meal and 3,418 tonnes of soybean meal.

?South Korea: South Korea imported 173,064 tonnes as

compared to 98,712 tonnes last year, consisting of 76,668 tonnes

of castorseed meal, 94,050 tonnes of rapeseed meal and 2,346

tonnes of soybean meal.

?Europe: Europe imported 43,774 tonnes compared to 738

tonnes last year.

Move of China…….

As per latest data release from China General Administration of

Customs, China's soybean imports in June declined by 31% on year to

4.3 million metric tonnes. While total imports from January to June

plunged by 8% to 23.71 million tonnes.

Month-wise Soymeal Export

602646057598400

166632176138

290868

404960443488

611157574996

540360

410537

305033

176819117600

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

Source: SEA of India

219239

599452

374751

227513

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

April-June 2010 April-June 2011 April-June 2010 April-June 2011

Soymeal Rape meal

Period-wise comparison of Oilmeal Exports


117778

64583

4515253208

64243

40390

80758

41604

110237

42409

147655

128221

142232

130082

102437

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Month-wise Rapeseed meal Export


China's import by Quantity & Value, April 2011 (in 10000 MT)

Quantity Value Quantity Value Quantity Value Quantity ValueSoybean 430 2462697 2371 13673832 2580 11411378 -8.1 19.8

Edible Vegetale oil 47 584579 270 3125021 317 2614741 -14.9 19.5

June Jan till June in totalTotal same period

in 2010Total Y-o-Y (%)

Source: www.e-to-china.com

(In Metric Tonnes)

(In Metric Tonnes)

(In Metric Tonnes)

5

3418 2346

31876

2960

110693

41490

915

11059

235405

5045 4222 1377 385705

927

10929

76787

11596 10000

80

32584

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Qty. in MTCountry-wise Soymeal Export (June 2011)

156354

94050

32978

10197

36166

2049 12475403

109

14645

209 1091 11768577 10500

50

20050

40050

60050

80050

100050

120050

140050

160050

180050

China South Korea

Thailand Vietnam Indonesia Malaysia Sri Lanka Japan Singapore Taiwan U.A.E Oman Kuwait Iran Turkey

Qty. in MT

Country-wise Rapemeal Export (June 2011)



6

Malaysia Palm Oil Industry Performance for June

A rise in Malaysian palm oil exports to their highest since 2008

showed signs of tailing off. Malaysia's palm oil stocks rose 6.8% to

2.05m tonnes, month on month, in June, official data showed.

However, the inventory figure, while the highest in 18 months, came

in some 80,000 tonnes short of forecasts, restrained by exports which

rose 12.4% to 1.58m tonnes. The figure for shipments was the highest

since December 2008, and helped by price declines for the vegetable

oil last month, alongside those of other agricultural commodities, at a

time when demand from importers is often strong ahead of the

Ramadan festival.

India factor

However, data from cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance

showed Malaysian palm exports falling 3.3% so far this month,

weakened in particular by shipments to the US and to India, which

vies with India for top rank in vegetable oil imports. Exports to India,

which at 44,500 tonnes so far in July were down nearly 50% on those

during the first 10 days of June, are coming under seasonal pressure.

India is starting the crush of its own harvest of oilseeds such as

rapeseed.

Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for July 1-10 fell 3.3 percent

to 398,280 tonnes from 411,852 tonnes shipped during June 1-10,

cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said on Monday.

Breakdown of SGS palm export figures for July 1-10 compared

to a month ago (in tonnes):

The following table shows Malaysia's palm oil production, stocks,

exports and imports for June according to the Malaysian Palm Oil

Board.

78,025

35,637

199,025

40,569

13,564 9,650

91,235

57,885

173,517

47,100

2,000

16,269

6,2551,000

51,000

101,000

151,000

201,000

251,000

Crude palm oil

RBD palm oil

RBD palm olein

RBD palm

stearin

Crude palm

kernel oil

Processed palm

kernel oil

Oleochemicals

in tonnes

Break Down Of Palm Products Exports

July 1-10 June 1-10

38,925

124,252

50,000

10,850

44,500

31,455

94,955

16,385

60,570

82,250

10,000

30,000

50,000

70,000

90,000

110,000

130,000

European UnionChina Pakistan United States India

in tonnes

Top Palm Markets

July 1-10 June 1-10

Stocks (Thousand tonnes)

2052.901923.00

1671.10 1614.501481.40 1418.70

1092.90 1078.10943.80 918.30

789.60

625.30

0.00

500.00

1000.00

1500.00

2000.00

2500.00

June'11 May '11 April '11 March '11 Feb. '11 Jan. '11

Palm Oil Crude Palm Oil Source: MPOB

1753.20 1741.80

1530.001416.40

1094.30 1058.00

0.00

200.00

400.00

600.00

800.00

1000.00

1200.00

1400.00

1600.00

1800.00

2000.00


Crude Palm Oil Production (Thousand tonnes)

Source: MPOB

1581.30

1406.301344.70

1235.30

1114.50

1218.20

0.00

200.00

400.00

600.00

800.00

1000.00

1200.00

1400.00

1600.00

1800.00


Export of Palm Oil (Thousand tonnes)

Source: MPOB

Source: ReutersSource: Reuters

7

Malaysia Palm Oil Industry Performance for June (Data tables)

Source: Bloomberg

Stock (MoM%)

Production (MoM%) June May April March Feb. Jan.

Crude Palm Oil 0.65% 13.85% 8.02% 29.43% 3.44% -14.18%

Palm Kernel -2.25% 11.41% 5.18% 31.95% 4.78% -12.09%

Crude Palm Kernel Oil 0.87% 11.23% 7.13% 37.18% -7.17% -17.02%

Production (MoM%)


Palm Oil 12.44% 4.58% 8.86% 10.83% -8.51% -5.66%

Palm Kernel Oil 7.36% -13.70% 2.92% 23.88% 18.97% -39.86%

Export (MoM%)


Crude Palm Oil -3.50% 52.82% -54.63% -29.55% 18.36% 49.23%

Processed Palm Oil 47.06% 313.37% 136.59% -26.02% -69.72% -56.54%

Import (MoM%)


Total Palm Oil 41.46% 23.09% 2.99% -2.49% -17.20% -29.18%

Crude Palm Oil 52.74% 32.45% 11.75% 8.03% -15.55% -44.80%

Processed Palm Oil 30.50% 12.90% -6.52% -13.60% -19.01% -8.84%

Palm Kernel 47.47% 59.64% 45.20% 18.97% 2.15% -10.23%

Crude Palm Kernel Oil 51.28% 27.40% -1.65% 24.04% 9.11% -29.75%

Stock (YoY%)

Production (YoY%)

Crude Palm Oil 23.48% 25.73% 17.13% 2.11% -5.40% -19.93%

Palm Kernel 25.32% 27.34% 16.02% 1.00% -6.00% -22.35%

Crude Palm Kernel Oil 27.60% 21.94% 7.99% -5.11% -12.18% -26.52%

June May April March Feb. Jan.

Production (YoY%)

Export (YoY%)

Palm Oil 9.51% 2.98% 4.61% -11.57% -13.94% -16.66%

Palm Kernel Oil 49.92% -25.23% 11.00% 1.94% -21.77% -37.68%


Export (YoY%)

Import (YoY%)

Crude Palm Oil 46.43% -17.25% -43.13% 272.92% 271.35% 13.61%

Processed Palm Oil 2945.62% 282.28% -31.86% -89.98% -85.35% -59.88%


Import (YoY%)


Total Palm Oil 6.75% 15.07% 3.51% 8.98% 4.42% -12.19%

Crude Palm Oil 1.37% 14.23% 2.78% 16.30% 26.28% -11.97%

Processed Palm Oil 13.62% 16.17% 4.47% 0.63% -12.80% -12.36%

Palm Kernel -1.04% 9.44% 14.27% 17.50% 22.65% -5.24%

Crude Palm Kernel Oil 18.39% 4.25% -13.31% 4.15% 24.24% -12.67%

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

8

Stock (Thousand tonnes)


Palm Oil 2,052.90 1,923.00 1,671.10 1,614.50 1,481.40 1,418.70

Crude Palm Oil 1,092.90 1,078.10 943.8 918.3 789.6 625.3

Processed Palm Oil 959.9 844.9 727.3 696.2 691.8 793.4

Palm Kernel 157.1 158.7 145 126.9 108 88.1

Crude Palm Kernel Oil 161.9 136.8 131.2 151.3 145.3 116.9

Source: Bloomberg


Crude Palm Oil 1,753.20 1,741.80 1,530.00 1,416.40 1,094.30 1,058.00

Palm Kernel 422 431.7 387.5 368.4 279.2 266.5

Crude Palm Kernel Oil 194.3 192.6 173.2 161.7 117.8 126.9

Production (Thousand tonnes)

Source: Bloomberg


Palm Oil 1,581.30 1,406.30 1,344.70 1,235.30 1,114.50 1,218.20

Palm Kernel Oil 90.3 84.1 97.4 94.7 76.4 64.3

Export (Thousand tonnes)

Source: Bloomberg


Crude Palm Oil 88.3 91.5 59.9 132 187.4 158.3

Processed Palm Oil 21.2 14.4 3.5 1.5 2 6.6

Import (Thousand tonnes)

Source: Bloomberg

Source: www.palmoilhq.com

9

Snap shot of World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (June 2011)

·U.S. oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 96.3 million tons, down 2.3 million tons from last month, with lower soybean

production accounting for most of the change.

·Soybean production is projected at 3.225 billion bushels, down 60 million due to reduced harvested area.

·Harvested area, estimated at 74.3 million acres in the June 30 acreage report, is 1.4 million below the June projection.

·The soybean yield is projected at 43.4 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month.

·Soybean supplies are 40 million bushels below last months forecast as higher beginning stocks partly offset lower production.

·Exports for 2011/12 are reduced 25 million bushels to 1.495 billion reflecting lower U.S. supplies, increased supplies in South America this

fall, and reduced global imports.

·U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 175 million bushels, down 15 million.

·U.S. soybean exports for 2010/11 are projected at 1.52 billion bushels, down 20 million from last month in part reflecting lower projected

imports for China.

·Soybean ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected at 200 million bushels, up 20 million.

·The 2011/12 U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at a record $12.00 to $14.00 per bushel, down $1.00 on both ends of the range.

·Soybean meal prices are projected at $345 to $375 per short ton, down $30 on both ends of the range.

·Soybean oil prices are projected at 54 to 58 cents per pound, down 4 cents on both ends of the range.

·Global oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 455.5 million tons, down 1.4 million from last month. Lower soybean, peanut, and

rapeseed production estimates are only partly offset by increases for sunflowerseed.

·Global soybean production is projected at 261.5 million tons, down 1.3 million mostly due to lower production in the United States.

·Higher soybean production for Russia resulting from increased area partly offsets the U.S. reduction.

·Rapeseed production is reduced for Canada due to lower harvested area.

World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds

Proj. Supply Use Stocks

Oilseeds June 456.89 531.62 115.20 389.58 71.12 -0.38

July 455.51 531.25 113.88 389.83 70.74

Oilmeals June 266.58 274.64 79.16 263.82 8.01 -0.06

July 266.39 274.29 79.09 263.28 7.95

Vegetable Oils June 151.47 162.68 62.47 150.72 9.68 0.49

July 151.69 162.91 62.74 150.28 10.17

2010/11 Output Total Trade Total Ending Change

World U.S

Source: USDASource: USDA

Proj. Supply Use Stocks

Oilseeds June 98.68 105.84 42.29 49.37 6.29 -0.53

July 96.34 104.34 41.44 49.31 5.76

Oilmeals June 38.08 40.37 8.04 31.99 0.33 0.00

38.04 40.33 7.96 32.04 0.33

Vegetable Oils June 9.77 14.90 1.30 12.20 1.40 0.02

9.78 15.09 1.24 12.43 1.42

2010/11 Output Total Trade Total Ending Change

July

July

(Million Metric Tons) (Million Metric Tons)

10

U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use

SOYBEANS 2010/11 Proj.

June July Difference

Million Acres

Area Planted 76.60 75.20 -1.40

Area Harvested 75.70 74.30 -1.40

Filler Bushels

Yield per Harvested Acre 43.4 43.4 0.00

Million Bushels

Beginning Stocks 180.00 200.00 20.00

Production 3285.00 3225.00 -60.00

Imports 15.00 15.00 0.00

Supply, Total 3480.00 3440.00 -40.00

Crushings 1655.00 1655.00 0.00

Exports 1520.00 1495.00 -25.00

Seed 90.00 90.00 0.00

Residual 25.00 25.00 0.00

Use, Total 3290.00 3264.00 -26.00

Ending Stocks 190.00 175.00 -15.00

Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 2/ 13.00 - 15.00 12.00 - 14.00Source: USDA

SOYBEAN OIL 2010/11 Proj.

June July Difference

Beginning Stocks 2823.00 2871.00 48.00Production 18900.00 18900.00 0.00Imports 185.00 185.00 0.00Supply, Total 21908.00 21956.00 48.00Domestic 17950.00 17950.00 0.00For Methyl Ester 3500.00 3500.00 0.00Food, Feed & other Industrial 14450.00 14450.00 0.00Exports 1800.00 1800.00 0.00Use, Total 19750.00 19750.00 0.00Ending stocks 2158.00 2206.00 48.00Avg. Farm Price (c/lb) 2/ 58.00 - 62.00 54.00 - 58.00

Million Acres

Source: USDA

SOYBEAN MEAL 2010/11 Proj.

July Difference

Tons

Beginning Stocks 300.00 300.00 0.00

Production 39285.00 39285.00 0.00

Imports 165.00 165.00 0.00

Supply, Total 39750.00 39750.00 0.00

Domestic 30800.00 30900.00 100.00

Exports 8650.00 8550.00 -100.00

Use, Total 39450.00 39450.00 0.00

Ending Stocks 300.00 300.00 0.00

Avg. Farm Price ($/s.t.) 2/ 375.00 - 405.00 345.00 - 375.00

June

Source: USDA

Month wise Projections Beginning Stocks Production Imports Domestic Crush Domestic Total Exports Ending Stocks

World 2/ Jun 64.53 262.79 96.24 232.90 263.21 98.75 61.59

July 65.88 261.45 94.87 232.36 262.65 97.58 61.97

United States Jun 4.90 89.40 0.41 45.04 48.17 41.37 5.18

July 5.44 87.77 0.41 45.04 48.15 40.69 4.78

Total Foreign Jun 59.63 173.38 95.83 187.85 215.04 57.38 56.42

July 60.44 173.68 94.46 187.31 214.50 56.89 57.19

Major Exporters 3/ Jun 41.78 133.00 0.07 78.95 84.20 51.30 39.35

July 43.38 133.00 0.07 78.95 84.20 50.80 41.45

Argentina Jun 22.15 53.00 0.00 40.00 41.65 11.80 21.70

July 22.85 53.00 0.00 40.00 41.65 11.30 22.90

Brazil Jun 19.42 72.50 0.05 37.10 40.50 34.00 17.47

July 20.31 72.50 0.05 37.10 40.50 34.00 18.36

Major Importers 4/ Jun 16.14 16.63 82.73 83.10 99.48 0.36 15.66

July 15.23 16.63 81.36 82.32 98.70 0.36 14.16

China Jun 15.21 14.30 58.00 61.50 72.50 0.30 14.71

July 14.21 14.30 56.50 60.60 71.60 0.30 13.11

EU-27 Jun 0.50 1.10 13.30 13.20 14.40 0.03 0.47

July 0.50 1.10 13.30 13.20 14.40 0.03 0.47

Japan Jun 0.22 0.22 3.40 2.37 3.60 0.00 0.25

July 0.21 0.22 3.40 2.36 3.59 0.00 0.25

Mexico Jun 0.05 0.11 3.75 3.80 3.84 0.00 0.07

July 0.05 0.11 3.75 3.80 3.84 0.00 0.07

2010/11 Proj. World Soybean Supply and Use (Million Metric Tons)

Source: USDA

Beginning Stocks Production Imports Domestic Total Exports Ending Stocks

Jun 6.77 183.66 59.14 181.78 61.07 6.71World 2/July 6.57 183.22 58.99 181.25 60.93 6.60Jun 0.27 35.64 0.15 27.94 7.85 0.27

United StatesJuly 0.27 35.64 0.15 28.03 7.76 0.27Jun 6.50 148.02 58.99 153.84 53.23 6.44

Total ForeignJuly 6.30 147.58 58.84 153.22 53.17 6.33

Jun 4.67 66.98 0.06 17.91 48.97 4.82Major Exporters 3/July 4.35 66.98 0.06 17.91 48.97 4.51Jun 1.96 31.21 0.00 0.74 30.22 2.21ArgentinaJuly 1.87 31.21 0.00 0.74 30.22 2.12

Jun 2.50 28.75 0.05 13.95 14.85 2.50BrazilJuly 2.28 28.75 0.05 13.95 14.85 2.28

Jun 0.21 7.03 0.01 3.23 3.90 0.11IndiaJuly 0.21 7.03 0.01 3.23 3.90 0.11Jun 0.77 60.95 32.60 92.36 1.30 0.66Major Importers 4/July 0.75 60.32 32.55 91.68 1.20 0.74

EU-27 Jun 0.39 10.40 23.30 33.36 0.45 0.28July 0.36 10.40 23.30 33.26 0.45 0.35

China Jun 0.00 48.71 0.35 48.26 0.80 0.00July 0.00 48.00 0.30 47.60 0.70 0.00

Month wise Projections

2010/11 Proj. World Soybean Meal Supply and Use (Million Metric Tons)

Source: USDA

11

Beginning Stocks Production Imports Domestic Total Exports Ending Stocks

World 2/ Jun 3.13 43.39 8.91 43.71 9.34 2.38July 3.07 43.29 8.76 43.27 9.36 2.48

United States Jun 1.28 8.57 0.08 8.14 0.82 0.98July 1.30 8.57 0.08 8.14 0.82 1.00

Total Foreign Jun 1.85 34.81 8.83 35.56 8.52 1.41July 1.76 34.71 8.68 35.13 8.55 1.48

Major Exporters 3/ Jun 0.82 17.14 0.75 10.92 7.14 0.65July 0.75 17.14 0.75 10.81 7.14 0.68

Argentina Jun 0.22 7.61 0.00 2.50 5.13 0.19July 0.25 7.61 0.00 2.50 5.13 0.22

Brazil Jun 0.35 7.12 0.00 5.55 1.66 0.26July 0.27 7.12 0.00 5.48 1.66 0.26

EU-27 Jun 0.26 2.41 0.75 2.87 0.35 0.20July 0.23 2.41 0.75 2.84 0.35 0.20

Major Importers 4/ Jun 0.45 12.58 2.69 15.40 0.04 0.27July 0.45 12.42 2.54 15.04 0.04 0.32

China Jun 0.18 11.01 1.85 12.82 0.04 0.18July 0.18 10.85 1.70 12.45 0.04 0.23

India Jun 0.27 1.57 0.80 2.55 0.00 0.09July 0.27 1.57 0.80 2.55 0.00 0.09

Pakistan Jun 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.04 0.00 0.00July 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.04 0.00 0.00

Month wise Projections

2010/11 Proj. World Soybean Meal Oil Supply and Use (Million Metric Tons)

Source: USDA

12

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

2150.00

2200.00

2250.00

2300.00

2350.00

2400.00

2450.00

2500.00

Volume Close Price Open Interest

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

2650.00

2700.00

2750.00

2800.00

2850.00

2900.00

2950.00

3000.00

PVO Analysis of RM Seed (July)futures

Volume Close Price Open Interest

PVO Analysis of Soybean futures (July)

Source: SMC Research


-140.00

-120.00

-100.00

-80.00

-60.00

-40.00

-20.00

0.00

20.00

40.00

Basis (Alwar ) Basis (Jaipur) Basis (Sriganganagar )

13

-140.00

-120.00

-100.00

-80.00

-60.00

-40.00

-20.00

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

BASIS (SOYBEAN)

Basis (Indore ) Basis (Kota) Basis (Nagpur)

BASIS (RM seed)



Disclaimer:

This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and doesn’t construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. It is only for private circulation and use .The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. No action is solicited on the basis of the contents of the report. The report should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person(s)in any form without prior written permission of the SMC. The contents of this material are general and are neither comprehensive nor inclusive. Neither SMC nor any of its affiliates, associates, representatives, directors or employees shall be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person due to any action taken on the basis of this report. It does not constitute personal recommendations or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs of an individual client or a corporate/s or any entity/s. All investments involve risk and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. The value of, and income from investments may vary because of the changes in the macro and micro factors given at a certain period of time. The person should use his/her own judgment while taking investment decisions. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance if this material;(a) from time to time, may have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities thereof, mentioned here in or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such commodities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the commodities discussed herein (c) may have any other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of Delhi High court.

For further any queries, please contact

Subhranil Dey Research Analyst [email protected]

Ph.: 011-30111000

Extn.: 6953

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