monthly auctionnet price change - june v. july, 2013 120

August 2013

Guidelines

NADA Used Car Guide Industry Update

NADA Used Car Guide | 8400 Westpark Drive | McLean, VA 22102 | 800.544.6232 | www.nada.com/b2b

NADA Official Used Car Guide® Update

Used vehicle depreciation slows again in July

After falling by a mild 1.1% in June, used vehicle de-

preciation tightened up even more last month. Prices

for used units up to eight model years in age fell by

just 1.0% in July, a figure substantially better than July

2012’s 2.6% loss and one lower than 2011’s drop of

1.6%.

Depreciation as a whole has remained very mild over

the course of the past two months, and as a result,

NADA’s seasonally adjusted used vehicle price index

remained virtually unchanged at 123.5, up just a tenth

of a point from June’s figure of 123.4.

At a segment level, losses for the month were

better than what is typically recorded over the

period. Wholesale prices remained especially

strong for large pickups, large SUVs, and mid-

size utilities, with each outperforming their

respective car segments. After ticking up by a

slight 0.2% in June, large pickup prices re-

mained fixed in July, while the combined 0.6%

drop in prices observed for the large SUV and

mid-size utility segments was barely percepti-

ble.

As for larger losses, depreciation in July was

led by compact cars at 1.8%, a figure nearly

even with June’s 1.7% decrease and one much

improved from the 2.7% rate of decline rec-

orded from April –May. Depreciation in the

luxury car segment picked up by more than

half a percent compared to June to 1.7%,

while mid-size van declines grew by a similar

amount to land at 1.6%.

New & Used

Market Trends

Fuel Price

Data

Economic Data

NADAguides.com

Consumer Site

Trends

NADA Official

Used Car Guide®

Value Trends

At NADA Used

Car Guide

July’s Used Price Losses Particularly

Light

Prices fall by just 1.0%; NADA’s used

price index increases to 123.5.

Auction Volume Picks Up In July

Volume rises by 1.9% led by 2006-2009

model year units.

August Official Used Car Guide Move-

ment Comparatively Mild

Trade-in values adjusted down by an

average of 1.5%.

New Vehicle SAAR Stays at a 5+ Year

High

SAAR reaches 15.6M; sales rise by 14%.

INSIDE:

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Jan

uar

y 2

01

0 =

10

0

Month

NADA Used Vehicle Price IndexVehicles up to 8 years in age. Seasonally adjusted.

Source: NADA

July 2013: index remains nearly flat at 123.5 versus June's

123.4.

-1.8%

-1.1%

0.0%

-0.7%

-1.7%

-1.4%-1.2%

-0.5%

-1.6%

-1.0%

-3.8%

-3.3%

-2.8%

-2.3%

-1.8%

-1.3%

-0.8%

-0.3%

0.2%

CompactCar

CompactUtility

LargePickup

Large SUV Luxury Car LuxuryUtility

Mid-SizeCar

Mid-SizeUtility

Mid-SizeVan

MarketAverage

Pe

rce

nt

Ch

an

ge

Segment

Monthly AuctionNet Price Change - June v. July, 2013Vehicles up to 8 years in age.

Source: NADASource: NADA


2

Guidelines | August 2013

©2013 NADA Used Car Guide

Despite a 10% year-to-date increase in auction volume, compact utility depreciation remained steady at 1.1% for the second

month in a row, while mid-size car prices fell by a similar rate of 1.2% (a sharp improvement from the prior three-month average

of 2.7%). Luxury utility depreciation quickened a bit to 1.4%, up from June’s figure of 0.8%.

Year-to-date prices stay nearly even with 2012 figures

Through the first seven months of 2013, vehicles up to eight years in age carried an average price of $15,638, a figure nearly iden-

tical to 2012’s average of $15,620 and a little over $500 higher than 2011’s average of $15,131.

Even though 2013’s prices remain essentially level with 2012’s

figures, substantial shifts were observed at the segment level.

As for appreciating segments, the combined large pickup and

large SUV year-to-date lift of 8% improved a bit from June’s fig-

ure of 7.8%. Mid-size van prices also grew by about a half a per-

cent to put their year-to-date rise at 2.8%, followed by mid-size

utilities at 1.7% increase.

Luxury car and luxury utility prices have seen the biggest declines

over the course of 2013, with respective drops of 1.6% and 1.5%

so far this year. The compact utility segment has seen a slight 1.3% decline followed by the mid-size car and compact car seg-

ments at 1.1% and 0.6%, respectively.

Overall, average market prices have appreciated by 0.1% so far in 2013, due largely to large pickup and large SUV strength.

Auction volume picks up in July

Excluding the holiday week of July 4th, the number of one-to-

eight year old AuctionNet transactions recorded over the past four

weeks (7/8 – 7/29) grew by 1.9% relative to the four weeks prior.

Volume growth over the period was led by the 2006 – 2009 model

years rather than 2010 and newer units, which is likely the result

of older units finding their way to auction after

being taken in on trade for a new – or newer pre-

owned – unit over the Independence Day holiday.

Year-to-date, auction volume for units up to four

model years in age has grown by 9%, while volume

for units between five and eight years in age has

contracted by 16%. Judging by the low rate of dep-

recation and the strength in used prices recorded

over the past few months, a vigorous consumer

appetite for used vehicles is readily absorbing the

additional influx of later-model used supply.

Used Car Guide Update (continued…)

-0.6%-1.3%

8.2%7.7%

-1.6% -1.5% -1.1%

1.7%

2.8%

0.1%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

CompactCar

CompactUtility

LargePickup

Large SUV Luxury Car LuxuryUtility

Mid-SizeCar

Mid-SizeUtility

Mid-SizeVan

MarketAverage

Pe

rce

nt

Ch

ange

Segment

Annual AuctionNet Price Change - Year-to-Date, 2012 v. 2013Through July. Vehicles up to 8 years in age.

Source: NADASource: NADA

AuctionNet® Auction Volume: 4-Week ChangeThe change in auction volume between the most recent 4 week period and the preceding

4 weeks.

MY 2006-07 MY 2008-09 MY 2010-11 MY 2012-13 All MYs

Prior 4-wk Period* 62,519 44,127 81,787 65,516 253,949

Current 4-wk Period 65,825 46,595 81,042 65,188 258,650

Difference (%) 5.3% 5.6% -0.9% -0.5% 1.9%

*Excludes the week of July 4th.Source: NADA

Volume by Model Year Group

Period

AuctionNet® Auction Volume: Prior-Year ChangeThe year-to-date change in auction volume by vehicle age. E.g. Ages 1-to-2 shows thedifference between 2012-13 MY volume in CY13 and 2011-12 MY volume in CY12.

Segment Ages 1-to-2 Ages 3-to-4 Ages 5-to-6 Ages 7-to-8 All Ages

Subcompact Car -6% 6% 11% 27% 3%Compact Car 9% -5% -26% 6% -5%Mid-Size Car 16% 25% -20% -6% 7%Large Car -7% -8% -36% 7% -11%Sport Car 23% 6% -29% 4% 1%Compact Utility 29% 26% -32% 12% 10%Mid-Size Utility 2% 17% -30% -9% -6%Large SUV -27% 6% -51% 22% -20%Mid-Size Pickup -41% 23% -42% -13% -19%Large Pickup 1% 44% -31% -3% -5%Mid-Size Van -14% -10% -39% -27% -23%Large Van 9% -1% -31% 3% -3%Luxury Compact Car 7% 17% -32% 18% 3%Luxury Mid-Size Car -27% 18% -34% 11% -5%Luxury Large Car -72% -29% -22% 5% -30%Premium Luxury Large Car 55% 76% -38% 34% 18%Luxury Sport Car 28% -17% -41% 5% -17%Luxury Compact Utility 2% 47% -55% 30% 0%Luxury Mid-Size Utility 7% 15% -30% -7% -3%Luxury Large Truck 1% 10% -45% 19% -10%

Total 5% 13% -30% -1% -3%

Source: NADA


3



August – December used price forecast

Current data continues to suggest that 2013 will come

to a close with used vehicle prices remaining at a high

level. That being said, NADA expects that the pace of

depreciation will pick up just a bit this month before

accelerating at a faster clip through the fall as the mar-

ket enters what is typically the softest part of the year.

On average, trade-in values in August’s edition of the

Official Used Car Guide® were adjusted down by 1.5%,

and NADA’s current forecast for September and Octo-

ber has average deprecation for the period ranging

between of 2.2%-to-3.0% - figures essentially equal to

what was observed over the period last year.

The rate of decline expected through October should see prices slot in between the averages recorded in 2011 and 2012, and by

the end of the year, prices are predicted to be equal to, or slightly higher than, what was recorded for the period in the two years

prior.

Notable August guidebook value movement

Taking a deeper dive in to August guidebook movement, staying true to recent trends, downward value adjustments for cars

once again exceed those of trucks by a score of -1.7% v. -1.2%.

As a result of continued lax demand, late-model Toyota Prius (-4.2%) and Honda Civic hybrid (-3.3%) values suffered more severe

adjustments, while after months of steep depreciation, 2011-12 model year Chevrolet Volt and Nissan Leaf plug-in EV values

were adjusted down by a relatively mild average of 1.8%.

Regarding the latter two plug-in EV models, the slowing rate of depreciation over the past month or so may be an indication that

values are beginning to settle at points palatable enough to raise their appeal to used car shoppers.

Large pickup values were revised downward by an average of just 0.3%, which reflects NADA’s belief that replacement demand

for the segment will continue unabated over the weeks ahead.


$12,000

$12,500

$13,000

$13,500

$14,000

$14,500

$15,000

$15,500

$16,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Av

era

ge

Pri

ce

Month

Average Used Vehicle Prices: Actual and ForecastBy Calendar Year. Vehicles to 8 years in age.

CY 2011 CY 2012 CY 2013 Actual CY 2013 Forecast

Source: NADA

July 2013: market averagefalls 1.0% to $14,580.


4



New vehicle sales increase by 14%, SAAR hits 15.6M units

New vehicle sales showed improvement over July 2012 as total

sales for the month came in at 1.31M units, which is a 14%

increase over the prior year’s 1.15M deliveries. Thus far in

2013, year-to-date sales have risen by 8.4% to reach 9.1M de-

liveries, up from 8.4M over the same period a year ago.

The current SAAR, or seasonally adjusted annual rate, is up to

15.6M units, representing an 11.1% lift over last year’s

14.04M. In addition, July’s SAAR is the second-highest record-

ed thus far in 2013, just behind June’s high of 15.89M.

Domestic automakers enjoying solid growth over last

year

Sales for U.S. automakers were up 13.3% in July versus last

year as the domestic “Big Three” all experienced positive gains

and combined for over 561K deliveries. For the year, the three

companies have achieved a total of 4.15M deliveries, equal to

a 10.2% rise over July 2012 year-to-date.

General Motors was the biggest winner among the domestics

last month as its sales grew 16.3% relative to the previous year

to a total of 234K. Although Chevrolet, Buick, and GMC all saw

sales decreases compared to June, they all enjoyed significant

growth over last year, with increases of 17%, 14%, and 14%,

respectively. Contributing most to the three brands’ year-over-year success are Chevrolet’s Silverado (+45%) and Cruze (+70%),

Buick’s Enclave (+87%), and GMC’s Sierra (+49%). On the luxury front, Cadillac had an notable month, with sales gains of 12% and

17% versus last month and last year, respectively, made possible by tremendous growth from the XTS (+69%) and the all-new

ATS.

Ford Motor Co. had a solid July, with its Ford and Lincoln brands combining for 10.8% growth for the month over last year, how-

ever, the company’s year-to-date gains are what really stick out as its 1.45M sales represent a 12.3% increase compared to where

it stood last year. The Ford brand carried the load as its 182K deliveries in July reflect over 93% of the company’s total sales. Em-

phasizing Lincoln’s struggles to keep up with the Blue Oval is the fact that while Ford saw a sales lift of 11% year-to-date, Lincoln

has experienced a sales decrease of 1%, this despite its attempts to reinvent itself as a brand. While Ford largely depended on the

F-Series (+22%) for its year-over-year sales growth in July, it also enjoyed tremendous growth from the Fiesta (+89%) despite a

smaller sales volume of 7,667 units.


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

Pe

rcen

t Ch

ange

Sale

s V

olu

me

(m

illio

ns)

Month

New Vehicle Sales

New Vehicle Sales YoY Change

Source: Wardsauto.com

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

11

12

13

14

15

16

Pe

rcen

t Ch

an

ge

Ne

w V

eh

icle

SA

AR

(m

illi

on

s)

Month

New Vehicle SAAR

SAAR YoY Change



5



Chrysler had the most disappointing month of all mainstream

brands, as it experienced the worst declines compared to last

month (-27%) and last year (-4%) and struggled to finish with

just under 20K sales in July. On the other hand, Dodge’s 42K

deliveries were an 18% jump over last year, thanks to sales

increases from its Durango SUV (+88%) and its Dart sedan

(+685%), whose production only just started to ramp up a year

ago. Ram continued to make positive contributions to Chrysler

Group LLC’s overall recovery, with over 30K sales, 98% of

which came from its Ram pickup.

Import brands realize impressive gains year-over-year

Overall, foreign automakers combined to achieve 746K deliver-

ies in July, which is a gain of 14% versus last year. However,

the Japanese enjoyed the bulk of the success, with 510K sales

equaling an 18% jump year-over-year. The big three Japanese

automakers, Toyota, Honda, and Nissan, enjoyed a combined

16.8% increase in July over last year, finishing the month with

444K sales. Year-to-date, sales for the three companies have

reached 2.9M units, equating to an 8.1% rise over the same

period last year.

Toyota Motor Sales enjoyed a strong July, with its Toyota

brand realizing 164K deliveries, a gain of 17% over July 2012,

thanks to the success of its Prius line (+40%) and the Camry

(+16%). Also, Lexus had the best month of all luxury brands

considering its 23K sales resulted in positive gains versus last month (+8%) and last year (+26%). Contributing most to the luxury

brand’s success in July, year-over-year, were the Lexus ES (+62%), IS (+59%), and RX (+15%).

Honda enjoyed a good July, with the brand’s 126K sales carrying it to month-over-month and year-over-year gains of 3% and

21%, respectively. Compared to last year, Honda has made significant gains as a result of strong performances from its CR-V

(+42%), Civic (+32%), and Pilot (+33%) models, while the Accord (+10%) continues its steady growth. Meanwhile, Acura also

brought in strong results, with 15K punches representing a 10% increase over last month and an 18% jump versus last year, due

to the accomplishments of its MDX (+29%), and somewhat more surprisingly, its RDX (+48%). Accentuating American Honda Mo-

tor’s sales success in July is the realization that it was the only company whose brands, mainstream and luxury, all attained im-

provements versus the prior month and year.

Nissan North America experienced mixed results between its Nissan and Infiniti brands in July. With 101K sales, the Nissan brand

enjoyed increases of 7% and 17% versus last month and last year, respectively. Impressive year-over-year gains from its Rogue

(+29%) and all-new Pathfinder (+235) contributed most to the brand’s growth, while its Altima, Sentra, and Versa cars also

achieved increases of 11%, 16%, and 21%, respectively. Unfortunately, Infiniti was one of the worst performers in July among all

brands as its 7,762 sales reflected drops of -15% versus last month and -33% versus last year. While the brand is in the midst of a

shift in strategy, including changes to its product portfolio, the arrival of the all-new Infiniti Q50 cannot come soon enough, as

sales of the G sedan and coupe fell -54% compared to a year ago.


Mainstream Brand Performance (Units Sold)

Jul-13 Jun-13 Jul-12 Month Ago Year Ago

Buick 16,393 18,078 14,391 -9% 14%

Chevrolet 162,670 193,460 138,942 -16% 17%

Chrysler 19,978 27,249 20,792 -27% -4%

Dodge 41,986 49,843 35,630 -16% 18%

Fiat 3,783 4,050 3,710 -7% 2%

Ford 181,795 222,782 163,277 -18% 11%

GMC 39,356 39,376 34,487 0% 14%

Honda 126,289 123,150 104,119 3% 21%

Hyundai 66,005 65,007 62,021 2% 6%

Jeep 42,277 44,609 41,559 -5% 2%

Kia 49,004 50,536 48,074 -3% 2%

Mazda 24,977 22,496 19,317 11% 29%

Mini 5,950 6,571 5,855 -9% 2%

Mitsubishi 5,230 5,297 4,194 -1% 25%

Nissan 101,279 95,010 86,722 7% 17%

Ram 30,677 30,382 23,823 1% 29%

Scion 6,261 6,340 6,904 -1% -9%

Smart 860 781 780 10% 10%

Subaru 35,994 39,235 25,183 -8% 43%

Toyota 164,102 167,540 139,759 -2% 17%

Volkswagen 35,779 36,957 37,014 -3% -3%

Source: Wards Auto

Change From

Luxury Brand Performance (Units Sold)


Acura 15,150 13,765 12,825 10% 18%

Audi 13,064 13,706 11,707 -5% 12%

BMW 24,043 27,074 21,297 -11% 13%

Cadillac 15,652 13,929 13,417 12% 17%

Infiniti 7,762 9,114 11,619 -15% -33%

Jaguar 1,613 1,637 1,011 -1% 60%

Land Rover 4,050 3,468 3,320 17% 22%

Lexus 23,031 21,355 18,235 8% 26%

Lincoln 6,919 7,469 6,975 -7% -1%

Mercedes-Benz 25,563 26,381 21,514 -3% 19%

Porsche 3,820 3,700 2,803 3% 36%

Volvo 5,909 6,678 5,714 -12% 3%

Source: Wards Auto

Change From


6



The German automakers saw solid results to the month, combining to increase sales by 8% versus last July and reach a total of

109K units. Mercedes-Benz achieved the largest growth, year-over-year, with a 19% gain made possible by the C-Class (+34%),

GLK (+48%), and M-Class (+73%). Following closely behind was BMW, whose 24K deliveries was a 13% lift as a result of its 3-

Series’s success (+29%), while Audi’s 13K sales was a12% gain thanks to its Q5 (+52%), Q7 (+49%), and A6 (+22%). Volkswagen on

the other hand struggled against its mainstream competition as it achieved less than 36K sales, good for a drop of 3% relative to

last month and last year, with every model experiencing a year-over-year sales decrease excluding the Beetle and Passat.

Mazda and Subaru emerge from the pack

As their compatriots from Japan have historically enjoyed the bulk of the island nation’s automotive sales success, including the

spotlight that comes with it, Mazda and Subaru have struggled to arise from the shadows of their more prominent brethren. In

July however, both automakers made strides that certainly help their causes and point them in the right direction.

Mazda finished July with 25K deliveries, which was the greatest month-over-month sales increase of all mainstream automakers,

at 11%. Compared to July 2012, the brand from Hiroshima, Japan also had the second-highest sales jump, at over 29%, due to the

success of the all-new Mazda6 (+167%) in addition to the well-received CX-5 (+86%). There is reason to believe that this is only

the beginning of a strong upward push by the automaker, as the outgoing Mazda3 (+2%) continues to maintain growth ahead of

the arrival of its all-new replacement later this year. Thus far in Mazda’s revival, the new designs and SkyActiv technologies have

done much to improve acceptance of the brand, and with its sales-leading Mazda3 compact car set to arrive this year, Mazda has

reason to believe the outlook is promising.

Despite its reputation as a quirky automaker with a reputation for all-wheel drive cars and aesthetically questionable designs,

Subaru has steadily grown in recent years. For the month, Subaru sold 36K units, which led all mainstream brands with 43%

growth year-over-year. While its first rear-wheel drive vehicle, the BRZ sports car, has made headlines over the past several

months, Subaru’s year-over-year leap in July was due in large part to its utility vehicles, particularly the Forester (+53%) and the

all-new XV Crosstrek. Meanwhile, the automaker also experienced positive gains among its car models as the Impreza (+29%) and

Outback (+13%) had solid months. Subaru has progressively formed itself a more focused product portfolio, with new technolo-

gies and less-polarizing designs, and with the release of the new adrenaline-pumping WRX expected to come next year, the

brand’s future looks bright.

Incentive spending drops to lowest level since April

Average incentive spending fell to $2,554, per Autodata, after

2013’s high of $2,700 in June, but increased 1.8% compared

to a year ago. Thus, the auto industry’s year-over-year sales

growth greatly outpaced that of incentives, and this was

achieved as a result of certain brands realizing sales gains

despite a pullback in spending.

Looking at the brand level, the true sales successes can be

uncovered based on each brand’s year-over-year change in

spending.


-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

$2,100

$2,200

$2,300

$2,400

$2,500

$2,600

$2,700

$2,800

Pe

rcen

t Ch

ange

Ave

rage

Ince

nti

ve S

pe

nd

ing

Month

Incentives

Average of Total YoY Change

Source: Autodata


7



While General Motors posted solid results in July, Chevrolet and Buick relied on heavy increases in spending, at 22% and 25%,

respectively, to achieve such outcomes while Cadillac spent 5% more than last year. On the other hand, Hyundai and Kia strug-

gled to sales improvements of 6% and 2%, respectively, yet their incentives ballooned by 78% and 30%, revealing how concerned

they are about losing market share. Although the Koreans continue to be among the lowest spenders in the industry, the recent

year-over-year increases in incentives suggest a trend may be developing.

Chrysler maintained its status as the biggest spender among volume brands, with average incentives of $4,497 representing a

21% jump over last year, yet was still unable to avert a disappointing sales month. Following Chrysler’s footsteps was

Volkswagen, whose sales decline occurred despite an incentives figure of $2,743, which was the fifth-highest among mainstream

brands and an 18% increase over July 2012.

It can be argued that American Honda Motor was the big winner in July, as it posted solid results between its Honda and Acura

brands while reducing spending by -19% and -36%, respectively. Nissan North America employed the same strategy of moderated

incentives, with year-over-year decreases of -13% and -16% for Nissan and Infiniti, respectively, however, while Nissan saw its

sales increase, Infiniti’s dropped as it undergoes an overhaul of its product lineup.

On the luxury side, looking at the German automakers, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi have all lowered their respective spend-

ing by -18%, -12%, and -5%, to great success as they all achieved sales growth in July versus last year. Meanwhile, in an effort to

regain its status as the highest-selling luxury brand, Lexus accomplished its lift in sales by increasing its year-over-year incentive

spending by 18%.

Among different types of incentives, finance and lease subvention are used more heavily than others, however, the two saw de-

creases of -1.5% and -5.2%, respectively, in July. Coinciding with those changes is a development in recent months where the use

of customer cash has gone up, beginning in April. This month, the trend continued as customer cash incentives rose by 12.2%

over last year. From the perspective of used vehicle retention, the greater use of customer cash is a cause for concern as this

form of price reductions directly influences used values and the negative effect is immediate. As the year progresses and au-

tomakers face the burden of year-end sales targets, the potential for spending may increase and it will be important to monitor

the use of incentives, particular what types.

Overall new vehicle supply declines by four days

With regards to new vehicle days’ supply, inventory fell by four

days to 56 days in July versus last month. Compared to the

previous year however, this represents an increase of one day.

Of the mainstream brands, Mazda’s overall inventory shrank

significantly, decreasing by 19 days to end at 65 days, while

Chevrolet also saw a healthy 14 day reduction in days’ supply

to finish at 62 days. Among the luxury brands, Acura’s invento-

ry dropped by 27 days to settle at 57 days while Lexus’s sales

growth caused its days’ supply to fall by 18 days and land at a

relatively low 43 days for the month.


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Day C

han

ge

Day

s o

f Su

pp

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New Vehicle Days' Supply

Days' Supply YoY Change



8



Economic Update

Employment

In July, total payroll jobs rose by 162,000, which was a figure well below the market consensus. Private-sector employment was

up by 161,000, while the government added just 1,000 jobs. The unemployment rate, which comes from a different survey of

households rather than businesses, fell in July to 7.4 percent, from 7.6 percent in June. The unemployment rate fell for two rea-

sons; 1) the number of employed as measured by the household survey rose by 227,000 in July, while 2) the labor force shrank by

37,000. The labor force participation rate fell by 0.1 percentage point to 63.4 percent, slightly above a decades-long low.

The August employment data will be key to the Fed’s decision at its mid-September meeting to begin reducing its purchases of

long-term assets, or to maintain its current course of action. If job growth picks back up again and the unemployment rate holds

steady at 7.4 percent, then the Fed is likely to reduce its purchases to some extent. Another month of disappointing job growth

and an increase in the unemployment rate could lead the FOMC to maintain its $85 billion of monthly purchases in the near

term. Short-term rates will remain near zero until the second half of 2015, or after the unemployment rate is projected to reach

the 6.5 percent threshold the central bank has set for increases in the federal funds rate.

Energy

Crude oil prices increased during the first three weeks of July as world oil markets tightened in the face of seasonal increases in

world consumption, unexpected supply disruptions, and heightened uncertainty over the security of supply with the renewed

unrest in Egypt. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that the Brent crude oil spot price, which averaged

$108 per barrel over the first half of 2013, will average $104 per barrel over the second half of 2013, and $100 per barrel in 2014.

Rising crude oil prices and seasonal demand increases contributed to U.S. regular gasoline retail prices increasing from an aver-

age of $3.50 per gallon on July 1, 2013,to $3.63 per gallon on August 5. The EIA expects the regular gasoline retail price to aver-

age $3.59 per gallon in the third quarter of 2013, and the annual average price to decline from an average of$3.63 per gallon in

2012 to $3.52 per gallon in 2013 and to $3.37 per gallon in 2014. The national average diesel fuel price increased one cent to

$3.92 per gallon, 12 cents higher than last year at this time, and the highest price since mid-April.

U.S. crude oil production increased to an average of 7.5 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in July 2013, the highest monthly level of

production since 1991. The EIA forecasts U.S. total crude oil production will average 7.4 million bbl/d in 2013 and 8.2million bbl/d

in 2014.

Housing

According to the National Association of Realtors, existing home sales fell 1.2 percent in June to 5.08 million at a seasonally-

adjusted annualized rate against expectations for an increase. Sales in May were revised slightly lower to 5.14 million, from the

initially reported figure of 5.18 million. The inventory of new homes for sale rose 1.9 percent from June to July (not seasonally

adjusted). With an increase in inventories and a drop in sales the supply of existing homes for sale rose to 5.2 months based on

the June sales pace, up from 5.0 months in May and a cyclical low of 4.3 months in January. However, as sales have picked up and

inventories have declined, supply is down sharply from 11.9 months in mid-2010. Limited supply is putting upward pressure on

prices of existing homes.


9



Economic Update (continued...)

The median sale price for an existing home rose from $203,000 in May to $214,000 in June, and was up 13.5 percent on a year-

ago basis. While sales of existing homes fell in June, sales of new single-family homes rose, according to the Census Bureau. Sales

were 497,000 at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate, the fastest pace since May 2008. Sales were up 8.3 percent from 459,000

in May, revised down from 476,000.

Sales rose at a double-digit pace from May to June in the Northeast, South and West, but fell 12 percent in the Midwest for the

month. The supply of new homes remains very tight, with inventories of just 3.9 months at the current sales pace, down from 4.2

months in May. Despite this, the median sale price for a new home fell 10.3 percent from May to June to $235,700. However, the

median sale price in June was up 7.1 percent on a year-ago basis.

It is too soon to tell if the increase in mortgage rates over the past two months is weighing on the housing market, as sales of

existing homes dropped in June, but those of new homes rose. Although higher mortgage rates do make owning a home more

expensive, this is greatly outweighed by the current positives for the housing market. Mortgage rates are still very low on an his-

torical basis and have come down slightly over the past few weeks, and although prices are increasing, affordability is still good

given the big price declines recorded during the housing bust. An improving labor market, better consumer confidence, pent-up

demand and better access to mortgage credit are also boosting sales.

House prices are increasing broadly both geographically and across different types of homes. Price gains are also supporting con-

sumer spending; as home values increase households are wealthier, making them more willing to spend. Rising house prices are

offsetting some the drag on consumer spending stemming from tax increases at the beginning of 2013 and federal spending cuts

from sequestration, including unpaid furloughs for federal workers. However, house price growth will gradually slow to a more

sustainable pace due to higher mortgage rates and more inventory as homebuilding picks up and the recent price gains bring

more sellers into the market. Income growth will pick up in 2014 as the unemployment rate declines and the labor market tight-

ens, leading to stronger wage gains. Still, the need for households to rebuild their savings and the anticipated display of more

cautious attitudes toward spending and borrowing in the wake of the Great Recession will weigh on consumer spending growth

over the longer run.


10



Fuel Price Data

Source: EIA

($0.50)

($0.40)

($0.30)

($0.20)

($0.10)

$0.00

$0.10

$0.20

$0.30

$0.40

$3.10

$3.20

$3.30

$3.40

$3.50

$3.60

$3.70

$3.80

$3.90

$4.00

Price

Ch

ange

Ave

rage

Pri

ce

Month

Regular Grade Gasoline Prices (all formulations)

Average Price Per Gallon $ YoY Change

Source: EIA

($0.30)

($0.20)

($0.10)

$0.00

$0.10

$0.20

$0.30

$0.40

$3.50

$3.60

$3.70

$3.80

$3.90

$4.00

$4.10

$4.20

Price

Ch

an

ge

Ave

rage

Pri

ce

Month

On-Highway Diesel Fuel Prices

Average Price Per Gallon $ YoY Change

Source: EIA

U.S Regular Gasoline Prices (dollars per gallon, all formulations)


US $3.59 $3.63 $3.44 ($0.03) $0.15

East Coast $3.56 $3.50 $3.41 $0.07 $0.15

Midwest $3.54 $3.75 $3.44 ($0.21) $0.10

Gulf Coast $3.41 $3.36 $3.22 $0.05 $0.19

Rocky Mountain $3.62 $3.70 $3.52 ($0.08) $0.10

West Coast $3.92 $3.90 $3.70 $0.01 $0.22

Change From

U.S On-Highway Diesel Fuel Prices (dollars per gallon)


US $3.87 $3.85 $3.72 $0.02 $0.14

East Coast $3.88 $3.84 $3.77 $0.03 $0.11

Midwest $3.85 $3.87 $3.68 ($0.02) $0.17

Gulf Coast $3.79 $3.75 $3.64 $0.04 $0.16

Rocky Mountain $3.85 $3.85 $3.70 ($0.01) $0.15

West Coast $4.00 $3.96 $3.84 $0.04 $0.16

Change From


11



Economic Data

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

Un

em

plo

ym

en

t Ra

te (%

)

Ch

an

ge

in

No

nfa

rm P

ay

roll

s (M

on

thly

, T

hs.

)

Month

EmploymentTotal Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate, SA

Nonfarm Payroll Change Unemployment Rate

Source: BLS

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Ind

ex

Va

lue

Month

Consumer Confidence Index

Consumer Confidence Index 6 Mo. Mov. Avg.

Source: The Conference BoardSource: The Conference Board

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Re

tail

an

d F

oo

d S

erv

ice

Sa

les

(% C

ha

ng

e)

Month

Retail SalesRetail & Food Service Sales, SA

Retail/Food Service Sales YoY Retail/Food Service Sales MoM

Source: U.S. Census BureauSource: The Conference BoardSource: BLS

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65D

iffu

sio

n i

nd

ex

, S

A

Month

Industrial ProductionPurchasing Manager's & Inventories Indices

Purchasing Manager's Index 6 Mo. Mov. Avg.

Source: Institute for Supply Management

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

0

50

100

150

200

250

Ho

usin

g S

tarts (T

hs. S

AA

R)

Ho

me

Pri

ce I

nd

ex

(A

gg

reg

ate

Ja

n.

20

00

=1

00

)

Month

HousingS&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (20-Metro Composite) & Housing Starts (Total Private)

Home Price Index Housing Starts

Source: S&P Case- Shiller, U.S. Census Bureau

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

All

Ite

ms

(% C

ha

ng

e)

Month

Consumer Price Index (CPI)All Items

All Items YoY All Items MoM

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics


12



NADAguides.com Consumer Site Trends — New Activity

About NADAguides.com

NADAguides.com is the most comprehensive vehicle information website on the internet today, offering a broad range of information and services to

help educate consumers in the market to buy, sell, trade, or simply shop for a vehicle.

NADAguides is an alliance partner of NADA Services Corporation.

The figures contained below are based on consumer activity at www.nadaguides.com and are calculated by measuring the number of unique lookups for

a given period of time.

New: Top 15 Researched Models — July 2013

New: Top 15 Researched Models — July 2012

-22%

-16%

-11%

-7%

-2%

0%

4%

8%

9%

10%

14%

19%

20%

20%

20%

22%

24%

25%

26%

26%

30%

30%

34%

35%

37%

44%

44%

44%

69%

69%

92%

104%

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%

Suzuki

Volvo

Smart

Mitsubishi

Porsche

Infiniti

Hyundai

Nissan

Kia

Scion

MINI

Lexus

Buick

Jeep

GMC

Chevrolet

Lincoln

Land Rover

Toyota

Jaguar

Cadillac

Subaru

Volkswagen

Ford

BMW

Honda

Acura

Mercedes-Benz

Audi

Dodge

Chrysler

Mazda

Percent Change

YoY Change in Consumer Activity: NEW Make

Source: NADAguides.com

July 2013 Rank MY MAKE MODEL

1 2013 Ford F-150

2 2013 Chevrolet Silverado 1500

3 2013 Honda Accord Sdn

4 2013 Honda CR-V

5 2013 Ram Truck 1500

6 2013 Toyota Tacoma

7 2013 Hyundai Elantra

8 2013 Dodge Dart

9 2013 Mazda CX-5

10 2013 Nissan Altima

11 2013 Jeep Wrangler Unlimited

12 2013 Chevrolet Equinox

13 2013 Chrysler 300

14 2013 Ford Escape

15 2013 Volkswagen Jetta Sedan

July 2012

Rank MY MAKE MODEL

1 2012 Ford F-150

2 2012 Chevrolet Silverado 1500

3 2012 Chevrolet Captiva Sport Fleet

4 2012 Toyota Camry

5 2012 Ford Focus

6 2012 Honda CR-V

7 2012 Nissan Altima

8 2012 Ford Escape

9 2012 Chevrolet Equinox

10 2012 Ram Truck 1500

11 2012 Toyota Tacoma

12 2012 Honda Accord Sdn

13 2012 Ford Mustang

14 2012 Jeep Grand Cherokee

15 2012 Hyundai Sonata


13



NADAguides.com Consumer Site Trends — Used Activity

Used: Top 15 Researched Models — July 2013 Used: Top 15 Researched Models — July 2012

-5%

-4%

3%

4%

4%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

8%

8%

8%

8%

9%

9%

10%

10%

10%

11%

11%

12%

12%

12%

12%

12%

13%

15%

18%

19%

19%

19%

21%

22%

23%

-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Land Rover

Hummer

Nissan

Toyota

Hyundai

Honda

Scion

Dodge

Acura

Infiniti

Subaru

Jaguar

Mitsubishi

Jeep

Chevrolet

Ford

Pontiac

Lincoln

Suzuki

Kia

Lexus

Mazda

Cadillac

Chrysler

BMW

Volvo

Volkswagen

Saturn

GMC

Mercedes-Benz

Saab

Porsche

Mercury

Audi

MINI

Buick

Percent Change

YoY Change in Consumer Activity: USED Make

Source: NADAguides.com

July 2013 Rank MAKE MODEL

1 Ford F-150

2 Chevrolet Silverado 1500

3 Chevrolet Impala

4 Honda Accord Sdn

5 Nissan Altima

6 Toyota CAMRY

7 Ford Mustang

8 Dodge Ram 1500

9 BMW 3 Series

10 Toyota Corolla

11 Ford Fusion

12 Chevrolet Cobalt

13 Ford Escape

14 Chevrolet Tahoe

15 Pontiac G6

July 2012

Rank MAKE MODEL

1 Ford F-150

2 Chevrolet Silverado 1500

3 Nissan Altima

4 Honda Accord Sdn

5 Toyota Camry

6 Chevrolet Impala

7 Dodge Ram 1500

8 Ford Mustang

9 Toyota Corolla

10 Ford Escape

11 Ford Fusion

12 BMW 3 Series

13 Chevrolet Cobalt

14 Chevrolet Tahoe

15 Chevrolet Malibu


14



NADA Official Used Car Guide® Value Trends

Monthly Change in NADA Used Car Guide Value

July 2013 v. August 2013

Annual Change in NADA Used Car Guide Value

August, 2012 v. 2013

YTD Change in NADA Used Car Guide Value

January — August 2013

NADA Segment 2008MY 2009MY 2010MY 2011MY 2012MY*

Compact Car -1.9% -2.1% -1.8% -1.9% -1.7%

Compact Utility -1.8% -1.3% -1.2% -1.0% -0.9%

Large Pickup -0.5% -0.4% -0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Large SUV -0.2% -0.7% -0.6% -0.5% -0.4%

Luxury Car -1.1% -0.8% -0.8% -0.7% -0.9%

Luxury Utility -1.4% -1.4% -1.1% -1.1% -0.7%

Mid-Size Car -2.0% -1.4% -1.5% -1.7% -1.1%

Mid-Size Utility -1.2% -1.8% -1.4% -0.9% -0.9%

Mid-Size Van -1.1% -0.6% -1.3% -0.9% -0.4%

*Value movement can be influenced by newly valued vehicles. See the last page of "Guidelines" for data key.

NADA Segment 5YR 4YR 3YR 2YR 1YR

YoY Segment

Change

Compact Car 0.1% -1.3% 2.9% -1.4% 1.6% 1.9%

Compact Utility -0.1% -0.7% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% -1.4%

Large Pickup 9.0% 9.6% 4.1% 10.0% 4.2% 8.7%

Large SUV 11.5% 2.7% 1.3% 3.3% 3.5% 2.8%

Luxury Car 2.6% -0.2% 2.2% -1.6% 5.2% -0.5%

Luxury Utility 2.1% 6.2% 2.9% -4.3% -2.4% -1.8%

Mid-Size Car -1.0% -3.5% 6.9% 4.2% 3.4% 5.4%

Mid-Size Utility 4.8% 3.0% 2.2% 0.6% -1.0% 1.5%

Mid-Size Van 15.9% 2.8% -0.7% 8.6% 0.4% 8.9%

*Calculations are based on vehicle age, i.e. values for 1 year old vehicles in CY2012 are compared against values for 1 year old vehicles in CY2011.

NADA Segment 2008MY 2009MY 2010MY 2011MY 2012MY*

YTD Segment

Change

Compact Car -7.4% -7.6% -6.5% -6.7% -7.6% -7.2%

Compact Utility -8.6% -7.5% -6.7% -5.4% -5.0% -6.3%

Large Pickup -2.9% -3.0% -2.2% -0.6% -1.3% -1.9%

Large SUV -5.5% -6.5% -5.3% -4.3% -4.3% -5.1%

Luxury Car -8.9% -8.0% -8.3% -7.9% -2.4% -6.1%

Luxury Utility -9.4% -8.0% -8.7% -6.9% -6.5% -7.6%

Mid-Size Car -5.9% -5.7% -6.8% -6.4% -6.3% -6.2%

Mid-Size Utility -8.2% -7.9% -7.1% -6.2% -6.8% -7.0%

Mid-Size Van -6.7% -5.9% -4.9% -4.0% -3.5% -4.7%


NADA Used Car Guide | 8400 Westpark Drive | McLean, VA 22102 | 800.544.6232 | www.nada.com/b2b ©2013 NADA Used Car Guide

Financial Industry/

Accounting/

Legal/OEM Captive

Steve Stafford

800.248.6232 x7275

[email protected]

Credit Unions,

Fleet/Lease/

Rental Industry,

Government

Doug Ott

800.248.6232 x4710

[email protected]

Automotive

Dealers/Auctions,

Insurance

Jim Dodd

800.248.6232 x7115

[email protected]

Automotive

OEMs

Stu Zalud

800.248.6232 x4636

[email protected]

Business

Development

Manager

Jim Gibson

800.248.6232 x7136

[email protected]

Director—Sales

and

Customer Service

Dan Ruddy

800.248.6232 x4707

[email protected]

Director—Public

Relations

Charles Cyrill

703.821.7121

216.870.8837 (mobile)

[email protected]

CONTACTS:

Disclaimer: NADA Used Car Guide makes no representations about future performance or results based on the data and the con-

tents available in this report ("Guidelines"). Guidelines is provided for informational purposes only and is provided AS IS without

warranty or guarantee of any kind. By accessing Guidelines via email or the NADA website, you agree not to reprint, reproduce, or

distribute Guidelines without the express written permission of NADA Used Car Guide.

At NADA Used Car Guide

What’s New

Coming soon! Android device users will soon be able to download and subscribe to NADA MarketValues. NADA

MarketValues is our new mobile app designed exclusively for dealers. Subscriptions are available for NADA Used

Car Guide values and/or AuctionNet®, the industry’s top source for wholesale vehicle sales data. NADA values in-

clude weekly NADA auction values, as well as monthly trade-in, loan and retail for used passenger cars and light-

duty trucks. Download NADA MarketValues from the Apple Store for $1.99 and get your FREE 30 day trial started

today! Contact us at 800-544-6232 to learn more.

On the Road

Chris Visser will be attending the fourth annual Commercial Vehicle Outlook Conference in Dallas, TX from August

21-22. This conference is designed to share real-world insights on the state of the industry and what steps to take

to survive and thrive in the fourth quarter and beyond. If you see Chris, please take a moment and introduce your-

self.

Doug Ott will be attending the 79th annual IAAO (International Association of Assessing Officers) conference in

Grand Rapids, MI from August 25-28. The IAAO is the recognized leader and preeminent source for innovation,

education, and research in property appraisal, assessment administration and property tax policy.

Looking ahead to September, plan on joining Mike Stanton, Jonathan Banks and Dan Ruddy at the NAAA (National

Auto Auction Association) in Indianapolis, IN from September 3-5. Used Car Guide is sponsoring the first live webi-

nar event to be held September 4th at the show and we hope you participate whether you are attending the show

or can join online. Mike Stanton will welcome the new NAAA Chairman aboard at the Presidential Gala.

About NADA Used Car Guide

Celebrating our 80th year, NADA Used Car Guide has earned its reputation as the leading provider of vehicle valua-

tion products, services and information to businesses throughout the U.S. and worldwide. NADA’s editorial team

collects and analyzes over one million combined wholesale and retail automotive-related transaction prices per

month. Its guidebooks, auction data, analysis, and data solutions offer automotive, financial, insurance, and govern-

ment professionals the timely information and reliable solutions they need to make better business decisions. Visit

www.nada.com/b2b to learn more.

About AuctionNet®

AuctionNet® is an industry-unique wholesale transaction database, available exclusively from NADA Used Car

Guide, in joint partnership with the National Auto Auction Association (NAAA). Over 100 million records

strong and updated weekly, it captures sales from all Manheim and ADESA, as well as participating ABC,

ServNet and large independent auctions, representing over 80% of nationwide auction activity.

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