Momentum in Pres election

• Rational or irrational behavior• Learning (via media, ads,...)

– policy– personality– viability– reduction in uncertainty

• Bandwagon effect ?

What is Momentum?

• Often an anti-establishment candidate • Gaining in poll standing over time• Usually no time to win w/ momentum

– what effects frontloading?– less time for outsider to build momentum?– Carter (1976); Reagan (1976); Hart (1984);

McCain (2000)....Obama (2008)

Momentum

20

40

60

80

100Pe

rcen

t Fam

iliar

9/26

10/1

0

10/2

4

12/1

2

12/2

1

1/19 2/

4

2/20

2/29

Date, 1999 - 2000

Public Familiarity with Presidential Candidates, 2000

Hear of Gore

Hear of Bush

Hear of McCain

MomentumPublic Familiarity with Presidential Candidates, 2008

Momentum

20

30

40

50

60

70

80Pe

rcen

t

9/26

10/1

0

10/2

4

12/1

2

12/2

1

1/19 2/

4

2/20

2/29

Date, 1999 - 2000

Public Attitudes about Presidential Candidates, 2000

Favorable opinion of Gore

Favorable opinion of Bush

Favorable opinion of McCain

Momentum Public Attitudes about Presidential Candidates, 2008

Momentum Public Attitudes about Presidential Candidates, 2012

7-Jan

7-Feb

7-Mar

7-Apr

7-May

7-Jun

7-Jul

ap11

11-Ju

n

11-Se

p

11-N

ov11

-Jan

01020304050607080

not hear off Romney

not hear off Romney

Momentum? Public Attitudes about Presidential Candidates, 2012

Momentum

10

20

30

40

50

perc

ent

nov1

4no

v23

nov2

8de

c5de

c12

dec1

9de

c26

jan2

jan9

jan1

2ja

n23

jan3

0fe

b2fe

b6fe

b9fe

b13

feb2

0fe

b27

mar

5m

ar7

mar

12m

ar14

mar

19m

ar26 ap2

ap5

ap16

ap18

ap26

may

3m

ay10

may

17m

ay24

may

31ju

ne7

june

14

date

Figure 6.1: Public Interest in the 2000 Presidential Election

Summary measureof attention

talked about election recently

NH

Art, Sports and Democracy

Does Democracy Need Music and Singing?

And:Baseball leagues, Quilting bees, Theater groups,Soccer (football) clubs, PTAs, League of Women Voters, Labor unions, Girl Scouts, Boy ScoutsElks, Lions, Moose, EaglesRed Cross…..

etc.

Sports, & Arts Groups as Venues to Build Social Capital

Social capital =

• Networks of trust

• Skills of citizenship

• Working w/ others

• Interacting w/ different types of people

The Argument

• Democracy depends upon social capital

• cooperative relationships

• Social Capital built via voluntary social groups

• Participation in social groups in decline

• WHY? work-force change, commuting, suburbs, the 60s, mobility…AND...

• Decline in “civic engagement” product of decline in group activity

Topline: group memberships; 2nd line: turnout; 3rd line, read newspapers; 3rd & 4th lines = trust

The Argument

Putnam: Democratic “performance” greater where more participation in

social groups. In Italy, football clubs and choral societies.

Verba, Scholzman and Brady:“Running a rummage sale to benefit the church day care

center or editing a church newsletter provides opportunities for the development of skills relevant to politics even though the enterprise is expressly non-political.”

Tocqueville:"the serious, futile, very general and very limited, immensely large and very minute" organizations alike would instil the habits of public spiritedness.

The Argument

Active in vol.groups

Trusting,skills

Democraticperformance

Why a decline of “civicness,” and political engagement in recent decades?

• trust in government way down

• trust in elected officials down

• political efficacy

• fewer working on campaigns

• participation (voting, joining parties) down (?)

Levels of Social Group Membership, USA by Age Cohort

AGE COHORT Tuned 18 in about: 1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 .

Not a member of 25% 26% 29% 36% 37%any group

Member of one or 44 42 42 39 41two social groups

Member of three or 31 31 29 25 22more social groups

Source: Authors’ calculations from raw data in GSS 1972 – 2000 cumulative datafile.

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Perc

ent T

rust

ing

Mos

t or A

ll of

the

Tim

e

1958

1962

1966

1970

1974

1978

1982

1986

1990

1994

1998

2002

Year

Trust in the Federal Government: 1958 - 2002

Source: National Election Study..... by 2004, trust at 47%

20

30

40

50

60Pe

rcen

t of R

espo

nden

ts

1974

1979

1984

1989

1994

Year of Survey

Trends in Trust in Government, and Church- BasedGroup Membership USA: 1974 - 1994

Member of Church-basedGroup?

Trust Government?

Source: General Social Survey

Questions• Is there an association between membership in groups and

democratic virtues?

• Face-to-face groups special??

• Is the association stronger among some groups than others?

• Does joining a football club instil democratic virtues?

• Arts groups particularly well-suited to the task?

• Are things the same across all nations?

Sources: Authors’ analysis of raw data files - Europe, 1990 Eurobaromerter Survey 34.0; New Zealand, 1999 New Zealand Election Study; USA, 1994 General Social Survey.

Percent of Adults Claiming Group Memberships in 14 Democracies

Types of groups:

Europe New Zealandpolitical parties political partieslabor unions unionschurch groups church groupsarts groups cultural organizationshuman rights groups interest groupsecology groups youth groupsyouth groups hobbies groupsconsumer organizations social clubssports groups sports groups"other" social groups. community service

Relative Strength of Association: Group Memberships and Political Engagement, Europe

Membership AloneUnion .63 all p < .01Human rights .59Charity Groups .59Consumer Groups .47Arts Groups .42Environmental groups .41

Youth Groups nsSports groups nsChurch group ns

Results Join a Party Freq. of Political DiscussionSports Arts Sports Arts

Norway .63 .88 .48 .84Denmark -.07 .47 -.04 .46Netherlands -.17 .89 -.29 .44Belgium .70 .43 .43 .16W Germany -.13 .86 .16 1.00France -.31 .62 -.18 .29Ireland -.09 -.28 .14 .97Portugal 1.41 .08 .30 .12Italy .50 .98 .34 .74Spain -.65 2.06 .12 .54Great Britain .20 1.11 -.08 .93Greece .15 1.29 -.19 .21

BOLD = significant...larger number (+/-) = greater effectControlling for age, income, gender, education, religion, ideology

Major findings:

Not all groups have same relationship w/ engagement

More time spent with social groups = more political engagement

Many non-political groups have no association

Churches?Sports – only in NZ, Norway, Belgium, Port.Arts groups trump sports groups

Sports: Correlation, not causation?

Cross National: Trust and Sports, 29 Nations 2004

Correlation btw % who join sports clubs and % trust people

So, why don’t people join?

• 1• 2• 3• 4• 5

TV = Time displacement effect ?

From Putnam’s book, Bowling Alone