modelling water & life
DESCRIPTION
My recent 10-minute talk on modelling for environmental decision-makingTRANSCRIPT
Modelling Water & Life4 in 40
Corey J. A. Bradshaw1,2
1THE ENVIRONMENT INSTITUTE, University of Adelaide, Australia2South Australian Research & Development Institute
• > 4 million protists
• 16600 protozoa
• 75000-300000 helminth parasites
• 1.5 million fungi
• 320000 plants
• 4-6 million arthropods
• > 6500 amphibians
• > 30000 fishes
• 10000 birds
• > 5000 mammals
99 % of ALL species that have ever existed...
EXTINCTspecies lifespan = 1-10 M years
Ordovician (490-443 MYA)
Devonian (417-354 MYA)
Permian (299-250 MYA)
Triassic (251-200 MYA)
Cretaceous (146-64 MYA)
Anthropoceneextinction rate 100-10000 background
Crutzen 2002 Nature 415:23; Bradshaw & Brook 2009 J Cosmol 2:221-229© T
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• reduce desertification• maintain soils• crop pollination• seed dispersal• food provision• water purification• fuel provision• fibre provision• climate regulation• flood regulation• disease regulation• waste decomposition/detoxification• nutrient cycling• soil formation• primary production• pharmaceutical sources• cultural appreciation (aesthetic, spiritual, educational, recreational…)
• €50 billion lost/year• Land-based ecosystem loss €545 billion by 2010• > €14 trillion/year lost by 2050
Cost of Policy Inaction (COPI):The case of not meeting the 2010 biodiversity target.
European Commission
€153 billion/year
fisheries: €50 billion/year
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• 1,011,000 km2 lost 2000-2005 (3.1 %; 0.6 %/year)• highest in boreal biome (60 %)• humid tropics next (Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia)• dry tropics next highest (Australia, Brazil, Argentina)• N.A. greatest proportional lost by continent• Nationally, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, DR Congo
Bradshaw et al. 2007 Glob Change Biol 13:2379-2395
1990-2000• ~100,000 people killed• 320 million people displaced• total reported damages > US$1151 billion
Ohl & Tapsell 2000 Br Med J 321:1167-1168; Ivers & Ryan 2006 Curr Op Infect Dis 19:408-414
• schistosomiasis
• malaria
• leptospirosis
• dysentery
• cholera
• hepatitis
• typhus
increased host habitat availability & displacement of humans to areas where inadequate sanitation and temporary high-density living promote disease
Mellin et al. 2010 Glob Ecol Biogeog 19:212
Taylor’s Power Law (TPL)
Relationship between log-transformed abundances (N) and temporal variance (s2) = line with a slope of 2
log mean abundance
log
vari
ance
2 2.5 3 3.5 4
3
4
5
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Kilpatrick & Ives (2003) – Nature
TPL slope decreases as the strength of competition between species increases
deviations from TPL:
3.0 0.42.2 0.4
1.5 0.3
Reef area Reef isolation
3.1 0.4
2.0 0.3
1.7 0.3
Mellin et al. 2010 Ecology doi:10.1890/10-0267.1
Mellin et al. 2010 Ecology doi:10.1890/10-0267.1
• natural forest loss2005-1990 D/ha
• natural habitat conversionhuman-modified landcover/total landcover
• marine captures1990-2005 fish, whales, seals/EEZ km
• fertiliser useNPK/ha arable land
• water pollutionbiochemical oxygen demand/total renewable water resources
• carbon emissionsforestry, land-use change, fossil fuels/km2
• biodiversity threatRed List threatened birds, mammals, amphibians/listed species
Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440
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Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440
Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440
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Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440
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Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440
www.adelaide.edu.au/directory/corey.bradshaw
ConservationBytes.com
• Barry Brook University of Adelaide
• Julian Caley AIMS
• Xingli Giam Princeton University
• Mark Meekan AIMS
• Camille Mellin University of Adelaide/AIMS
• Kelvin Peh University of Leeds
• Navjot S. Sodhi National University of Singapore
• Ian Warkentin Memorial University
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