modelling bacterial levels in rivers to the coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · modelling...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
11
Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to
the Coastby
Roger Falconer
Hydroenvironmental Research Centre,School of Engineering, Cardiff University
![Page 2: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
22
Hydroenvironmental Research Centre
![Page 3: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
33
• Prof. Roger FalconerHalcrow Professor of Water Management
• Dr. Binliang LinSenior Lecturer in Hydroinformatics
• Dr. Catherine Wilson Lecturer in Eco-Hydraulics
• Dr. Bettina Bockelmann-Evans Lecturer in Environmental Hydraulics
• 12 Research Associates and Students
• 3 Academic Research Visitors
Research Team
![Page 4: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
44
• Develop hydro-environmental models to predict hydrodynamic, solute, sediment and contaminant transport processes in river, estuarine and coastal waters
• Undertake laboratory model studies and assist in field monitoring programmes to improve accuracy of processes modelled
• Improve interfaces and output devices for wider use of hydro-environmental models
Research Objectives
![Page 5: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
55
Current Research• Hydro-environmental modelling
• River and floodplain integrated modelling
• Wetland and mangrove nutrient modelling
• Vegetation impact on riverine systems
• Sediment and bio-chemical interactions
• Coastal and estuarine hydrodynamics
• Computer model solution algorithms
![Page 6: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
66
Environmental Hydraulics Challenges
![Page 7: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
77
• River basin flood risk management
• River sedimentation and morphology
• River ecology and water resources
• Domestic, agricultural and industrial effluents - point and diffuse sources
• Surface and subsurface interactions
• Land use and catchment hydrology
Typical Challenges
![Page 8: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
88
Physical Models
![Page 9: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
99
Physical Models
ScalingExpensiveInflexible
Not PortableNot Adaptable
DisadvantagesDisadvantagesDisadvantages
![Page 10: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
1010
No scalingInexpensive
FlexiblePortable
Adaptable
AdvantagesAdvantagesAdvantages
Numerical Models
![Page 11: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
1111
Numerical Models
Hydrodynamic processesWater quality processes Sedimentary processes
Solution algorithmsBoundary data
UncertaintiesUncertaintiesUncertainties
![Page 12: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
1212
Solution Procedure
![Page 13: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
1313
Decay?
Dissipation
Production?
MassMomentum
Solutes(Pollutants,Sediments,
or Metals)
dx
dy
b. Main processes occurringin each grid square
Watershed
Open Boundary?
a. Typical grid representation for river - coastal basin
LandLand
![Page 14: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
1414
• Advective-diffusion equation (with source inputs, bed and/or surface fluxes, kinetic interactions and/or particle settling)
• Continuity equation (with source inputs)
• Momentum equations (with earth’s rotation, wind shear, bed shear and turbulence)
Flow Modelling
Solute Modelling
![Page 15: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
1515
Water Quality• Physical
− Suspended Solids− Turbidity− Temperature− Radio-activity
• Chemical− Dissolved Oxygen− Bio-chemical Oxygen Demand− Nitrogen− Phosphorous− Metals
• Biological− Pathogens− Algae
![Page 16: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
1616
Collaborative Studies with CREH
![Page 17: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
1717
General Project Aims• Develop empirical relationships for bacterial
indicator levels with flow, sedimentary and bio-chemical processes in river basins
• Acquire better model representation between bacterial indicator and nutrient levels with sediment transport processes in river basins
• Refine hydroenvironmental modelling tools to provide holistic approach to river basin management and legislative compliance
• Refine models using data from 3 UK sites
![Page 18: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
1818
1. Total die-off
2. Settlement
3. Decay in darkness
4. Irradiance with decay also related to SPM
5. pH die-off
6. Temperature die-off
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
ktot = ks + (kd + f(Io,SPM))f(pH) f(T)
• Bacterial decay known to depend upon many parameters such as:-
Bacterial Decay• Hydroenvironmental models tend to use
constant values for decay rate or T90:
k = constant or k = φ(Temp)
![Page 19: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
1919
• Depth reduces effect of sunlight on decay (increases T90 value)
Effect of water depth on die-off ([SS]=10mg/l)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 500 1000
Irradiance at waters surface, Io (W/m2)
Dept
h av
erag
ed T
90 (h
ours
)
Z=0.2m
Z=0.3m
Z=0.5m
Z=0.75m
Z=1.2m
Z=1.8m
Z=2.9m
Z=4.5m
Bacterial Decay
![Page 20: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
2020
Bacterial Decay• Suspended solids reduce effect of sunlight
on decay (increase T90 value) Effect of suspended solids on die-off
(Z=1m)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 500 1000
Irradiance at waters surface, Io (W/m2)
Dept
h av
erag
ed T
90 (h
ours
)
[SS]=0.5 mg/l
[SS]=1 mg/l
[SS]=2 mg/l
[SS]=4 mg/l
[SS]=8 mg/l
[SS]=16 mg/l
[SS]=32 mg/l
[SS]=64 mg/l
![Page 21: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
2121
• Darkness to sunlight leads to increase in decay rate (reduction in T90 value)
1
10
100
1000
1 10 100 1000 10000Sunlight strength (Irradiance) W/m2
Faec
al C
olifo
rm T
90 (h
ours
)
Pommepuy et al. (1992),seawater.
Auer and Niehaus (1993),hypereutrophic lake.
Evison (1989), cleanfreshwater, 15 degC.
Evison (1989), cleanseawater, 15 degC.
Bellair et al., (1977), seawater18.5-26 degC
Sarikaya and Saatchi (1987),waste ponds, 25-30 degC.
Sarikaya et al. (1987), wasteponds, 26-31 degC.
Sarikaya et al. (1987), batchstudy, 24-27 degC.
Bacterial Decay
![Page 22: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
2222
Enteric Bacteria Fluxes• Bacteria in river and estuarine waters
primarily exist in two forms:Free-living bacteria moving with currents Adsorbed bacteria may beattached to surface of sediment particles and moves with sediments
• Adsorbed bacteria moving with sediments may be deposited on bed and subsequently re-suspended or desorbed to water column
• Free-living and adsorbed bacteria undergo decay processes - which are highly dynamic
![Page 23: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
2323
Enteric bacteria
water columnWastewater outfallsCatchment runoffWater birds
input
AdvectionDiffusion/dispersion
outputOverall reduction
Die-off
Deposition
Sediment re-suspension
Enteric Bacteria Fluxes
![Page 24: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
2424
Cardiff Bay
![Page 25: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
2525
Cardiff Bay Study
![Page 26: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
2626
grid cell size
50m x 50m
3-D Numerical Model
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
-8m
-6m
-4m
-2m
0m
2m
4m
6m
8m
10m
12m
14m
Queen AlexandraDock
RiverEly Depth
RiverTaff
BARRAGE
![Page 27: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
2727
Tracer Calibration
![Page 28: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
2828
Field MeasurementsMarch 2002, characterising
cold, overcast conditionsJuly 2002, characterising
hot, sunny conditions
![Page 29: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
2929
Monitoring Sites
![Page 30: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
3030
Measured Data• River discharges measured continuously at
upstream flow gauging stations
• Faecal coliforms and streptoccoci sampled daily at most sites by Harbour Authority
• Coliforms and streptococci measured hourly in day-light during field monitoring period
• Sunlight intensity measured hourly over Bay and also with depth at several key sites
• Temperature, pH and DO etc. also monitored
![Page 31: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
3131
0
700
07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00
07:00 19:00
Light Intensity
coun
ts/1
00m
l
100
Faecal ColiformFaecal Streptococci
Bacteriological measurements : Eastern Dock SiteBacteriological measurements : Eastern Dock SiteBacterial Decay
![Page 32: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
3232
Time
0102030405060708090
100
08:30 10:30 12:30 14:30 16:30 18:30
Rad
iatio
n in
put (
x 10
µm
ol/m
2/s)
Surface0.1 m0.5 m1.0 m1.5 m2.0 m2.5 m3.0 m3.5 m
Light variation with depth : Eastern Dock SiteLight variation with depth : Eastern Dock SiteBacterial Decay
![Page 33: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
3333
0.1
1
10
100
1000
11-Sep-88
30-Mar-89
16-Oct-89
04-May-90
20-Nov-90
08-Jun-91
25-Dec-91
12-Jul-92
28-Jan-93
16-Aug-93
T90
hour
s
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
FC c
fu/1
00m
l
3 day running average T90 (hours) 5 day running average FC (cfu/100ml)
Die-off Found to be Seasonal
![Page 34: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
3434
Artificial Neural Networks
Input LayerHidden Layer
Output LayerInpu
t Var
iabl
es
Output
1,1w1,2w
1x
2x1w
2w0w
+
1+
∑=
=N
iijij xwF
1, xe
xf−+
=1
1)(Sigmoid Equation
Back propagation Algorithm
![Page 35: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
3535
K K KT d S= +
Dynamic Decay Rate
( )[ ] sunlight for ratedecay conditionsdark for ratedecay
tIfKK
S
d
===
629.0236.063.2
givesdataofanalysisANN
IK T +=
![Page 36: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
3636
Millennium Stadium
![Page 37: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
3737
Varying day/night TVarying day/night T9090 values values -- 4 pm releaserelease
70,000
45,000
60,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Faecal Coliform
counts/100ml
Model Simulation
![Page 38: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
3838
70,000
45,000
60,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Faecal Coliform
counts/100ml
Varying day/night TVarying day/night T9090 values values -- 4 am releasereleaseModel Simulation
![Page 39: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
3939
River Ribble and Fylde Coast, U.K.
![Page 40: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
4040
Fylde Coast
London
Blackpool
LythamSt Anne’s
Ribble Estuary
River Wyre
Southport
Fleetwood
Compliance point
![Page 41: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
4141
Blackpool
Lytham St Annes
River Ribble
River DouglasRibble Estuary
River Wyre
Bathing water
Pumping station
Treatment works
Key
Southport
Water Assets• £500 million
invested from 1993 – 1996
• 3 major sewage treatment works
• 5 pumping stations with storm outfalls along coast
![Page 42: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
4242
Background• Failure to meet EU Bathing Water standards
• Storm sewers and sewage works discharging into rivers and coast thought to be cause
• Combined storm water and sewer overflows discharge into water courses and rivers
• Field surveys undertaken to establish inputs and failure levels at compliance points− Surveys unable to provide definitive conclusions − Data did not allow for impact of proposed capital
improvement works to be assessed
![Page 43: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
4343
BWD 76/160/EEC
![Page 44: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
4444
Coliform Sources
Creature
Faecal production (g per day)
E. coliper g
faeces
E. coliload (per
day)
Human 150 1.3x107 1.9x109
Cow 23600 2.3x105 5.4x109
Hog 2700 3.3x106 8.9x109
Sheep 1130 1.6x107 1.8x1010
Ducks 336 3.3x107 1.1x1010
Turkeys 448 3.0x105 1.3x108
Chickens 182 1.3x106 2.4x108
Gulls 15 1.3x108 2.0x109
![Page 45: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
4545
Objectives• Develop hydroenvironmental modelling tool
• Quantify impact of sewage inputs into Ribblebasin on coastal bathing water quality
• Investigate influence of various parameters such as wind, tidal range, river discharge, etc
• Allow for continuous and intermittent inputs
• Incorporate diffuse source inputs and new boundary inputs as data become available
• Propose management strategies for basin
![Page 46: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
4646
Project Strategy
Integrated modelling approach Integrated modelling approach -- predicting predicting microbiological water quality indicatorsmicrobiological water quality indicators
Coastal ModellingCoastal Modelling River ModellingRiver Modelling CSO ModellingCSO Modelling
![Page 47: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
4747
Study AreaTidal limit for rivers Ribble, Darwen and Douglas Seaward boundary close to 25m contour in Irish SeaNarrow rivers feed into wide estuary and coastal zone−Riverine boundary limit < 10m−Coastal boundary limit > 40km
Many effluent discharges occur along river reachesComplex hydrodynamic processes along river basin
![Page 48: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
4848
Linked 3/2-D and 1-D Models
326000 330000 334000 338000 342000 346000 350000 354000 358000 362000418000
422000
426000
430000
434000
7mile
3mile
Tarleton Lock
Bullnose
PenworthamBlue Bridge
Darwen Boundary
Douglas River
Ribble Boundary
Downstream Boundary
Measuring Water Elevation
Tide Survey
Measuring Discharge
![Page 49: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
4949
Estuary Bathymetry
405000
410000
415000
420000
425000
325000 330000 335000 340000 345000 350000
Bed elevation aboveOrdenance Datum (m)
< - 8.0-8.0 to –6.0-6.0 to –4.0-4.0 to –2.0-2.0 to 0.0 0.0 to 2.0
4.0 to 6.0 > 6.0
2.0 to 4.0
![Page 50: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
5050
1-D Model Setup
• 5 riverine reaches - each of length 50km
• 153 cross-sections included along rivers
• Interpolation between cross-sections to reduce effective spacing to 50m
• 922 interpolated cross-sections in total
• Discharges specified at upstream limit
• Diffuse source inputs along any node
FASTER (Flow And Solute Transport in Estuaries and Rivers)
![Page 51: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
5151
2-D Model Setup
• Developed by Water Research Centre (Iran) and used by HRC at Cardiff University
• Finite volume unstructured triangular mesh
• Higher order TVD scheme for advection
• Sub- and super-critical shallow water solver
• 17 water quality indicators included in model
• High quality animations and output included
HEMAT (Hydro-Environmental Modelling and Analysis Tool)
![Page 52: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
5252
• Bathymetric data obtained from:− LIDAR (Light Induced Direction And Range) − Sidescan sonar mounted on survey vessel− Admiralty chart used to compliment data
• Seaward boundary data provided by POL
• High grid resolution for estuarine basin
• Modelled tested extensively against field data
• Model used to predict coliforms and sediment
2-D Model DetailsHEMAT (Hydro-Environmental Modelling and Analysis Tool)
![Page 53: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
5353
Hydro-Environmental Modelling and Analysing
Tool - HEMAT
Water Research CentreWater Research CentreTehran Tehran -- IRANIRAN
Bristol Channel Application
Hydroenvironmental Hydroenvironmental Research Centre Research Centre -- CardiffCardiff
![Page 54: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
5454
Mesh Generator Interpolator Solver GUI Post-processor
Hydro-Environmental Modelling and Analysis Tool
![Page 55: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
5555
Mesh Generator Interpolator Solver GUI Post-processor
Hydro-Environmental Modelling and Analysis Tool
![Page 56: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
5656
Mesh Generator Interpolator Solver GUI Post-processor
Hydro-Environmental Modelling and Analysis Tool
![Page 57: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
5757Hydro-Environmental Modelling and Analysis Tool
Mesh Generator Interpolator Solver GUI Post-processor
![Page 58: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
5858
Grid Resolution in Estuary
![Page 59: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
5959
Simulation of Flooding - Drying
![Page 60: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
6060
Flow Calibration
53 54 55
Wat
er E
leva
tion
(m) Model
Measured
-4-3-2-10123456
30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55
Tim e (hours)
Spee
d (m
/s)
Model
Measured
-500
50100150200250300350400
30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55
Tim e (hours)
Dire
ctio
n (d
eg)
Model
Measured
Time (hours)
Time (hours)
11 Milepost
3/12/98Emax=4.7%
Emin=1.9%
Emax=13.0%
Emin=9.7%
Emin=2.2%
![Page 61: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
6161
Ribble EstuaryModel Calibration
11 milepost
11 May 1999 Wet Weather Neap Tide
![Page 62: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
6262
19 May 1999 Dry Weather Spring Tide
Ribble EstuaryModel Calibration
11 milepost
![Page 63: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
6363
Predictions• Baseline scenario predicted for mean inputs
• Various flow, tide and wind conditions studied
• Impact of different waste water treatment strategies and inputs considered
• Diffuse source inputs included from field data
• River discharges and inputs from CSOs and water treatment works studied individually
• All key locations along rivers, estuary and bathing waters analysed for coliform levels
![Page 64: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
6464
Coliform Predictions
![Page 65: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
6565
Coliform Predictions
![Page 66: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
6666
Coliform Predictions
![Page 67: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
6767
Ribble EstuaryModel Predictions
11 milepost
![Page 68: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
6868
Conclusions
![Page 69: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
6969
• Computational models increasingly powerful tools for managing aquatic environment
• Hydroenvironmental models depend heavily upon field data and empirical relationships -increasingly requiring interdisciplinary team
• Hydroinformatics tools linked with hydro-environmental models offer scope for online approach to river basin management
• Considerable scope for improving models
General Comments
![Page 70: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/70.jpg)
7070
Addendum
![Page 71: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/71.jpg)
7171
“Acknowledging uncertainties in river basin management is a
strength, for which youwill not be thanked”
HRH The Princess RoyalHRH The Princess Royal
Cardiff University, 2002Cardiff University, 2002
![Page 72: Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast. workshop 3 - r. falconer.pdf · Modelling Bacterial Levels in Rivers to the Coast by Roger Falconer ... • Propose management strategies](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022011901/5f08224b7e708231d42081cf/html5/thumbnails/72.jpg)
7272
Thank You