modeling of future dprk energy paths (draft)

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Modeling of Future Modeling of Future DPRK Energy Paths DPRK Energy Paths

(Draft)(Draft)

Dr. David F. Von HippelDr. David F. Von HippelNautilus Institute Senior AssociateNautilus Institute Senior Associate

Prepared for the “DPRK Energy Expert Study DPRK Energy Expert Study Group MeetingGroup Meeting”, Stanford University, California

June 26 - 27, 2006

DPRK Energy Expert Study DPRK Energy Expert Study GroupGroup

D. Von Hippel 6/2006

DPRK ENERGY PATHS: OUTLINE DPRK ENERGY PATHS: OUTLINE OF PRESENTATIONOF PRESENTATION

Preparation and Analysis of Energy Paths for the DPRK—National and Regional Goals and philosophy in preparing paths Overall Approach and Scope

Descriptions of Paths Considered “Recent Trends” Path “Redevelopment” Path “Sustainable Development” Path “Regional Alternative” Path



DPRK ENERGY PATHS: OUTLINE DPRK ENERGY PATHS: OUTLINE OF PRESENTATIONOF PRESENTATION

Selected Details of Modeling Approach by Path Selected Draft Results of Analysis of Future

Energy Paths for the DPRK Energy Demand Fuel Supply/Transformation Energy Imports and Exports Costs Environmental Emissions

Initial Lessons Learned from Analysis, and Next Steps in Analysis of Energy Futures for the DPRK



PREPARATION AND ANALYSIS PREPARATION AND ANALYSIS OF DPRK ENERGY PATHSOF DPRK ENERGY PATHS

Goals of Paths Analysis Assemble plausible, internally-consistent

alternative energy paths for the DPRK, based on the best information available

Explore, in a quantitative manner whenever possible (but not exclusively) relative energy security implications of different paths, including implications of NEA energy sector cooperation

Use energy paths as focus, starting point for discussions of how regional/other actors might assist in sustainable re-development of DPRK energy sector




Philosophy in Paths Preparation/Evaluation Design paths that are plausible, and, under the right

conditions, potentially achievable At the same time, paths shown are not intended in

any way to judge what should happen Paths are built upon best, most internally-consistent

DPRK information we can find, but there are undoubtedly many inaccuracies in the analysis

We look forward to working with DPRK colleagues to improve analysis, make more applicable

Paths are therefore a starting point for further discussion and analysis




Overall Approach in Paths Preparation/Evaluation Start with DPRK LEAP dataset that includes several

paths evaluated briefly in previous work Update data set to reflect most recent Nautilus

estimates of 1990 - 2005 DPRK energy use (overall analysis period for paths, 1990 to 2030)

Develop overall “themes” for several (4 -5 or more) paths to be evaluated

Identify specific assumptions for use in implementing the themes within LEAP

Modify paths so that all paths have the same 2006 energy picture




Overall Approach in Paths Preparation/Evaluation Prepare demand-side data entries (and document

assumptions in Excel workbook) Enter demand-side assumptions in LEAP De-bug demand-side datasets Prepare approximate supply-side data entries (and

document in Excel workbook) Enter supply-side assumptions in LEAP, calculate, and

modify parameters so that supply and demand balance Enter cost and environmental data for all paths Run all paths, check results, debug, re-run, and

evaluate relative demand, transformation, cost, environmental results of paths

DPRK Energy Expert Study DPRK Energy Expert Study GroupGroup 8


DPRK Energy Paths ConsideredDPRK Energy Paths ConsideredPOLITICAL STALEMATE IS….

NOT RESOLVED RESOLVED

“RECENT TRENDS” CASE: Economy opens a very little, aid flows modest, infrastructure erodes

“COLLAPSE” CASE: Economy and regime fails (not quantitatively modeled)

“REDEVELOPMENT” CASE: Revitalization, re-mechanization, infrastructure upgraded

“SUSTAINABLE DEV.” CASE: Redevelopment plus emphasis on energy efficiency, renewables

“REGIONAL ALTERNATIVE” CASE: Redevelopment plus regional projects



DPRK ENERGY PATHS DPRK ENERGY PATHS CONSIDEREDCONSIDERED

“Redevelopment” Path Used as National Reference path for DPRK Current political stalemate solved within next few

years, DPRK receives international assistance/cooperation in redevelopment

Industrial sector is revitalized, but mostly not rebuilt as it was before More iron and steel from scrap, efficiency improvements

in heavy industry sectors Industrial restructuring, with emphasis on industries such

as textiles, fertilizer Natural gas begins to be used in industry ~2015




“Redevelopment” Path (continued) Considerable increase in new light-industrial

production (IT, auto parts, joint ventures…) Increase in diesel, electricity use for light industry

Agricultural sector re-mechanized Cropped area decreases, but electricity, oil use in

agriculture increases (coal/biomass use decreases) Increase in residential electricity consumption Commercial sector expands rapidly Transport sector, particularly personal transport,

expands markedly




“Redevelopment” Path (continued) Investment in new electricity infrastructure

New coal, gas combined-cycle, small hydro Some rehabilitation of older plants, particularly

hydro; existing coal plants retired over time Simpo reactors completed 2013 (export power)

Re-investment in East Coast refinery Natural gas, first as LNG, begins to play a role in

powering industry, electricity, cities starting ~2012 Smaller LNG terminal built (Nampo?), part of output

exported



DPRK ENERGY PATHS CONSIDERED

“Recent Trends” Path Assumes that current political difficulties remain,

or are addressed only very slowly DPRK economy opens a very little, aid flows

modest, infrastructure erodes Very gradual increase in industrial output Transport activity increases slowly

Civilian auto transport grows most Residential energy demand increases slowly

Electricity gradually more available Some agricultural re-mechanization, incr. inputs




“Recent Trends” Path (continued) Transmission and distribution losses remain high 10 MW of small hydro power plants added/yr Total capacity at existing hydro and oil-fired power

plants changes little over time Coal-fired capacity meets net electricity demand after

hydro, oil-fired plant output factored in Simpo nuclear reactors not completed Oil/oil products imported (except HFO) at year

2000 levels West Coast refineries continue to operate




“Sustainable Development” Path Same energy services as “Redevelopment” Path

—with same demographic assumptions, economic output—but…

Applies energy efficiency, renewable energy, other measures, in an aggressive fashion Upgrading of industrial infrastructure goes above

average standards to high-efficiency international standards

Rapid phase-out of existing coal-fired power plants. Earlier addition of LNG (liquefied natural gas) terminal

and gas CC (combined cycle) generating plants




“Sustainable Development” Path (continued) Costs

Cost estimates included for all demand end-uses, transformation processes, and fuels whose use changes relative to the Redevelopment case




“Regional Alternative” Path Demand-sector Modifications

As a result of regional cooperation, efficiency improvement targets reached two years earlier at costs 10% less than in Sustainable Development path

Transformation-sector Modifications Gas pipeline from RFE begins operation in 2011; 3% of

gas used in DPRK initially, 10% by 2020, 15% by 2030 DPRK gets $10 million/yr “rent” for hosting the pipeline Larger LNG facility installed (also shared with ROK) Power line from the Russian Far East through the Participation in regional cooperative activities in energy




“Regional Alternative” Path (continued) Transformation-sector Modifications (continued)

Cooperation in renewable energy technologies yield earlier deployment,10% reduction in cost of wind, small hydro technologies

Last of existing coal-fired plants retired by 2020 Sustainable Development/Regional Alternative

Path Costs Cost estimates included for all demand end-uses,

transformation processes, and fuels whose use changes relative to the Redevelopment case



DPRK ENERGY PATHS: DPRK ENERGY PATHS: SELECTED DRAFT RESULTSSELECTED DRAFT RESULTS

Final Energy Use by Fuel: Redevelopment Case

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

Mill

ion

GJ

VEGETAL WASTES RESIDUALFUELOILOTHER PETRO PROD NATURAL GASLPGBOTTLED GAS KEROSENEJETFUELHYDROGEN HEAT DISTRICTGASOLINE FIREWOODELECTRICITY DIESELGAS OILCommercial Wood COKING COALCOKECOAL AVG DOMES. CHARCOALAVIATION GAS




DPRK Total Final Electricity Use by Path

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1990 1996 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

TW

h

Redevelopment

Recent Trends

Sustainable Development

Regional Alternative



DPRK ENERGY PATHS: SELECTED DPRK ENERGY PATHS: SELECTED DRAFT RESULTSDRAFT RESULTS




Reserve Margin by Path: DPRK Electricity Sector

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

Pe

rce

nt

Sustainable DevelopmentRegional Alternative TotalRedevelopment CaseRecent Trends Case




Generation Capacity Summary: Recent Trends Path

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

MW

Existing Coal Existing Oil

Large Hydro Small Hydro




Generation Capacity Summary: Redevelopment Path

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

MW

Existing Coal Existing OilExpanded Oil Large HydroKEDO LWR New CoalSmall Hydro Oil CCGas CC Wind Power




Generation Capacity Summary: Sustainable Development Path

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

MW

Existing Coal Existing OilExpanded Oil Large HydroKEDO LWR New CoalSmall Hydro Oil CCGas CC Wind PowerIGCC




Global Warming Potential by Case

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

Mill

ion

To

nn

es

CO

2 E

qu

iv. Sustainable Development

Regional Alternative Total

Redevelopment Case

Recent Trends Case




Relative Cost (NPV) Relative to Redevelopment Case

($2,000)

($1,500)

($1,000)

($500)

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

Demand Transformation Resources Total Net Costs

Mill

ion

US

D (

Ne

t P

res

en

t V

alu

e)

Sustainable Development Case

Regional Alternative Case



LESSONS LEARNED/NEXT STEPS LESSONS LEARNED/NEXT STEPS IN PATHS ANALYSISIN PATHS ANALYSIS

Lessons learned: Significant cost, environmental benefits to helping

DPRK achieve sustainable development/regional alternative-type paths

Next Steps Comprehensive energy security analysis Evaluate alternative nuclear energy paths Engage DPRK delegations in modeling exercises

(requiring capacity and database building….)



THANK YOU!THANK YOU!

modeling of future dprk energy paths (draft)

Documents

analysis of energy paths

future energy paths

leapmodify paths

energy picturepreparation

analysis of energy futures

dprk colleagues

consistent dprk information

dprk leap dataset