Modeling For Environmental Decisions

Patrick Barickman 3/21/2006

WHAT WE’LL COVER

•Models and policy

•The laws

•The pollutants

•Atmospheric chemistry

•A case study – a high wind event, aka a dust storm

Models, Facts, and the Policy ProcessJohn Leslie King and Kenneth L. Kraemer

Three Important Functions

1. Clarifier of the issuesKnow the model’s constraints and limitations

2. Enforces a disciplined analysisModeling protocol - Consistent results come from

consistent application

3. Form of advice – not necessarily the answerOften, the best advice may be what not to do

The Clean Air Act Circa 1970

Clean Water Act, NEPA, Endangered Species Act

Clean Air Act amended 1990Some technical changes, some major changes (regional haze rule – visibility in natl. parks)

Federal rules and health standardsEnforced by states ( in some cases local agencies)

Class I, II, and III areasClass I = pristine – wilderness, NPClass III = urban areas

Two classes of pollutants1. Criteria2. Hazardous

Criteria Pollutants•Carbon monoxide•Nitrous oxides•Sulfur oxides•Volatile organics compounds•Fine particulates

Health standards change over time asImproved science provides better understandingAbility to monitor pollutants improves

Particulate example1970’s – Total Suspended Particulates1980’s, 90’s – PM10

Current – PM2.5

OZONE:A BASIC

CHEMISTRY

NONO22

++SUNLIGHTSUNLIGHT

++OO22

NONOXX

EMISSIONSEMISSIONSVOCVOC

EMISSIONSEMISSIONS

NONO VOCVOC

OZONOZONEESSCCAVENGINGAVENGING FORMATIONFORMATION

From:PROF. V. J. CORTESMONICA LUPION I.I.

Sept. 10, 2005 - 00:00 Hrs Sept. 10, 2005 - 02:00 Hrs

Sept. 10, 2005 - 07:00 Hrs Sept. 10, 2005 - 12:00 Hrs

NEAP Technical Analysis

Model Development

Combines 3 Models HYSPLIT wind trajectories WRAP wind blown dust model ISCST3 dispersion and deposition

Multiple data sets Soils Land Cover UDAQ annual inventory Construction activity ( building permits )

All sewn together and processed with GIS Final output for each episode/monitor are sets of spreadsheets to easily track calculations for all dust categories

Model #1Using the HYSPLIT model toDefine the analysis area

4 km grid cells: too small

12 km grid cells: still too small

36 km grid cells: Better. Selecting cells by hand creates an area of influence based on the trajectory vectors

Model development: False starts along the way

Landuse types within the study area

Model #2Adapting the WRAP wind-blown dust model

Model #3ISCST3 plume dispersion

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Near-field AnalysisAccounting for dust emissions within the urban areas

•Sources in our ‘emissions inventory’•Vacant lots – a special case

GIS analyses often make use of spatial proportions

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Accounting for sources not accounted for in the dust model•Point•Area•Mobile•Vacant lots

Inventory = tons/year Model calculating grams/second

Results – Lindon 4/15/2002

Results – Magna 2/25/2002

Conclusions:

• A technical analyst serves many masters• It’s always helpful to know who they are

• At most, your expertise will be limited to a few models• Try for a working understanding in a variety of techniques

• Look at the job descriptions for senior planners and you will see a lot of space devoted to analytical skills