decisions! decisions! decisions! - afpnet.orgafpaloha.afpnet.org/files/afp...
TRANSCRIPT
Decisions. Decisions. Decisions! for AFP AlohaNational Philanthropy Day 11/16/2015
11/6/2016
(c) 2016 William F. Bartolini, Ph.D., ACFRE 1
Decisions! Decisions! Decisions!
For the AFP Aloha Chapter
William F. Bartolini, Ph.D., ACFRESenior Philanthropic Advisor for Principal Gifts
The Ohio State [email protected]
Tweet: @BillBartolini
GOALTo help you understand different
decision styles and techniques, andgive you useful tools to guide you,your prospects (and maybe staff andchildren) to make decisions moreeffectively.
(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 2
Assumptions
1. We will consider Individual Decisions, notGroup Decisions
2. We will focus on Adults, not Children
3. You will not be a Master of Everything, but willtake away useful information and tools
4. We’ll look at different perspectives
(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 3
Decisions. Decisions. Decisions! for AFP AlohaNational Philanthropy Day 11/16/2015
11/6/2016
(c) 2016 William F. Bartolini, Ph.D., ACFRE 2
Predispositions• Culture• Generation• 7 Faces of
Philanthropy• Decision Style
Motivations• Empowerment• Needs• Attitudes
Decision-Making• Bartolini• Daniel Kahneman• Petty & Cacioppo
The individual perspectivespeople bring to the table
(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 5
Decision StylesDon Lavallo & Olivier Sibony
Early-stage research on decision-makingstyles, McKinsey Quarterly, April, 2013.
Note: as far as I can tell, this hasn’t beenpublished in a peer reviewed journal, orindependently verified.
(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 6
Decision CriteriaPrefers Ad Hoc Prefers Process
Prefers Action Prefers Caution
Gathers Info Narrowly Gathers Info Widely
Corp Interest Prevails Self-Interest Prevails
Likes Continuity Likes Change
Prefers Storytelling Prefers Facts(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 7
Decisions. Decisions. Decisions! for AFP AlohaNational Philanthropy Day 11/16/2015
11/6/2016
(c) 2016 William F. Bartolini, Ph.D., ACFRE 3
Decision Criteria -- ASPICPrefers Ad Hoc Prefers Process
Prefers Action Prefers Caution
Gathers Info Narrowly Gathers Info Widely
Corp Interest Prevails Self-Interest Prevails
Likes Continuity Likes Change
Prefers Storytelling Prefers Facts(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 9
Predispositions• Culture• Generation• 7 Faces of
Philanthropy• Decision Style
Motivations• Empowerment• Needs• Attitudes
Decision-Making• Bartolini• Daniel Kahneman• Petty & Cacioppo
The pursuit of needs, wants,desires
(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 15
Predispositions• Culture• Generation• 7 Faces of
Philanthropy• Decision Style
Motivations• Empowerment• Needs• Attitudes
Decision-Making• Bartolini• Daniel Kahneman• Petty & Cacioppo
The process of selecting from several choices,products, or ideas, and taking action
(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 16
Decisions. Decisions. Decisions! for AFP AlohaNational Philanthropy Day 11/16/2015
11/6/2016
(c) 2016 William F. Bartolini, Ph.D., ACFRE 4
Decision-Making Agenda
1. Feeling vs. Thinking… orHeuristics vs. Cognitions… orSystem 1 vs. System 2
2. Ways to Make Decisions3. Making Better Decisions4. Coaching Decision Making
(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 17
How we Make Decisions:Thinking vs. Feeling
Focus our attention:Extroversion vs. Introversion
Orient to the world:Judgment vs. Perception
Take in information:Sensing vs. Intuition
Decision StylesMyers Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI)
(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 18
How We Make DecisionsThinking
Analytical Logical problem-solvers Use abstract, cause-and-
effect reasoning “Tough-minded” Strive for impersonal,
objective truth Reasonable Just
Feeling Empathetic Assess impact on people Guided by one’s personal
values “Tender-hearted” Strive for harmony and
individual validation Compassionate Accepting
-- Myers-Briggs Type Indicator,Interpreted by Robert E. Fogal, ACFRE
(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 19
Decisions. Decisions. Decisions! for AFP AlohaNational Philanthropy Day 11/16/2015
11/6/2016
(c) 2016 William F. Bartolini, Ph.D., ACFRE 5
System 1 vs. System 2Daniel Kahneman: Thinking, Fast & Slow
Intuition Cognition Fast, drawn from
previous conclusions Provides first
impression Useful when there are
time constraints orpredictability
Slow, conscious consi-deration of the options Provides thoughtful
analysis Useful when times are
turbulent or feedbackis helpful
(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 20
Definitions…
Intuition the ability to understand something
immediately, without the need for consciousreasoning.
Cognitions Thinking; the mental process of acquiring
knowledge and understanding through thoughtexperience, or the senses.
(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 21
Definitions…
Emotions Innate, nearly instantaneous evaluative response
of a stimulus compared one’s goals, needs ordirection.
Attitudes Learned, cognitive response to a stimulus,
stored conveniently as a summary ofimpressions.
(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 22
Decisions. Decisions. Decisions! for AFP AlohaNational Philanthropy Day 11/16/2015
11/6/2016
(c) 2016 William F. Bartolini, Ph.D., ACFRE 6
23
Learned, cognitive response to a stimulus, storedconveniently as a summary of impressions
Symbolic Attitudes moral beliefs significant values self image
Instrumental Attitudes Intrinsic values of the object Desirable or undesirable actions or attributes
Attitudes
(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 23
Belief
AttitudeBelief
Belief
Belief
Belief
Beliefs vary in strength andimportance
(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 24
Change the Beliefsand You Change the Attitude
Introduce New Beliefs Increase the Strength or Importance of a Favorable
Belief Decrease the Strength or Importance of an
Unfavorable Belief
(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 25
Decisions. Decisions. Decisions! for AFP AlohaNational Philanthropy Day 11/16/2015
11/6/2016
(c) 2016 William F. Bartolini, Ph.D., ACFRE 7
Attitudes developed thru experience aremore enduring and more likely to be used
(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 26
Persuasive CommunicationPeople process appeals cognitivelyand/or heuristically
Elaboration Likelihood Model-- Petty & Cacioppo, 1981
Heuristic Systematic Model-- Chaiken, 1980
(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 27
Central Processing If motivated (involved) If able or willing
1. Persuasion based onpredominant cognitions,positive or negative
2. Stronger cognitivestructure change
3. High need for cognition4. Involvement is a
curvilinear relationship
Peripheral Processing If not motivated If unable
1. Decision making basedon peripheral cues:likeability, experttestimony, rewardsattractiveness
2. Less strong attitudestructure change
Elaboration Likelihood ModelPetty & Cacioppo, 1981
(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 28
Decisions. Decisions. Decisions! for AFP AlohaNational Philanthropy Day 11/16/2015
11/6/2016
(c) 2016 William F. Bartolini, Ph.D., ACFRE 8
Myers-BriggsFeeling vs. Thinking
Daniel KahnemanSystem 1 vs. System 2
Petty & CacciopoPeripheral vs. Central Processing
How We make Decisions
(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 29
Ways to Make Decisions1. Intuitive vs. Rational2. Pro-Con List or Decisional Balance Sheet3. Simple Prioritization Define probability of success Consider opportunity costs of alternatives
www.decision-making-confidence.com(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 37
Ways to Make Decisions4. Satisficing vs. Maximizing Find acceptable alternative, or Find the best possible answer
5. Acquiesce to Authority6. Flipism
www.decision-making-confidence.com(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 38
Decisions. Decisions. Decisions! for AFP AlohaNational Philanthropy Day 11/16/2015
11/6/2016
(c) 2016 William F. Bartolini, Ph.D., ACFRE 9
Ways to Make Decisions7. Decision Matrix
Criteria Weight Alternative A Alternative B Alternative C
1 2x -2 -2 +42 3x 0 -3 33 4x +8 +4 +44 1x -1 -2 -1
0 13 -3 -3 +3 10
(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 42
Ways to Make Decisions1. Intuitive vs. Rational2. Pro-Con List or Decisional Balance Sheet3. Simple Prioritization4. Satisficing vs. Maximizing5. Acquiesce to Authority6. Flipism7. Matrix
www.decision-making-confidence.com
(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 43
Ethical Decision-Making Model The ‘CLICK’ model was developed for the Florida Power Corporation
C – Consequence – what are the consequences if I do this?Who will benefit, who will suffer?
L – Legal – is it legal? Are there considerations based on laws?
I – Image – Would I like to see this on the front page of the newspaper?Will this decision affect our public image?
C – Culture – does this decision support or damage ourorganization’s culture and values.
K – Does it cause a knot in my stomach?Would my mentor or hero approve?
Thanks to Jeff Beach, former National Director, the VON Canada Foundation andArthur Peters, Executive Director, Share Life (Toronto)
(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 53
Decisions. Decisions. Decisions! for AFP AlohaNational Philanthropy Day 11/16/2015
11/6/2016
(c) 2016 William F. Bartolini, Ph.D., ACFRE 10
Manage Bias to Make Better Decisions1. Selective evidence We may select evidence that supports our
previously held ideas2. Cognitive inertia It’s just too much effort to change; we’d rather
stay with the pain we know3. Anchoring The first price becomes the source of future
judgments.
(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 54
Manage Bias to Make Better Decisions
4. Attribution Asymmetry We attribute our failures to outside influences
but others’ failures to them5. Sunk-cost fallacy We don’t want to let go of an idea that’s not
working because we’ve invested so much6. Optimism or Overconfidence
(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 55
Coaching Decision MakingAnalyze the Decider & Situation
Recognize their Predispositions, styleDetermine the driver: intuition or thinkingPeople make most decisions emotionally; so
listen for the meaningLook for Bias
(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 56
Decisions. Decisions. Decisions! for AFP AlohaNational Philanthropy Day 11/16/2015
11/6/2016
(c) 2016 William F. Bartolini, Ph.D., ACFRE 11
Coaching Decision MakingMoving to a Decision
Match the decision model to the importanceof the situationPut a Guesstimate on the chances of successAsk what are the most important factorsQuestion the underlying attitudes/beliefsEngage in premortem thinking
(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 57
Coaching Decision MakingEngage in premortem thinking…Way to do devil’s advocate thinkingBefore the project starts, ask:
“We’re looking in a crystal ball and this projecthas failed; it’s a fiasco. Now, take two minutesand write down all the reasons why the projectfailed.”
-- Gary Klein, senior scientist at MacroCognition
(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 58
Coaching Decision MakingMoving to a Decision
Sheena Iyengar Cut. Less is more… Concretize. Make it Real. Categorize. More categories, fewer choices. Condition for complexity. Gradually increase
the complexity.
(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 59
Decisions. Decisions. Decisions! for AFP AlohaNational Philanthropy Day 11/16/2015
11/6/2016
(c) 2016 William F. Bartolini, Ph.D., ACFRE 12
Bibliography Ajzen, I. (1991). The theory of planned behavior.
Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes, 50,179-211.
Bartolini, W F. (2005). Cognitive and emotiveprocessing of altruistic requests (Doctoral dissertation,Kent State University, 2005).
Cacioppo, J. T., & Petty, R. E. (1984) ,"The ElaborationLikelihood Model of Persuasion", in NA - Advances inConsumer Research Volume 11, eds. Thomas C. Kinnear,Provo, UT : Association for Consumer Research, Pages: 673-675.
(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 61
Bibliography Huitt, W. (1992). Problem solving and decision making:
Consideration of individual differences using the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator. Journal of Psychological Type, 24, 33-44. Retrieved from (10/30/2015)http://www.edpsycinteractive.org/papers/prbsmbti.html
Sheena Iyengar, (2011). TED Talk “How to Make ChoosingEasier”
Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, Fast and Slow. New York:Farrar, Straus and Giroux
(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 62
Bibliography Mann, L, Harmoni, R., Power, C. (1991). “The GOFER
course in decision making.” In Baron, J., Brown, R. V.Teaching decision making to adolescents. Hillsdale, NJ:Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. Pp. 61-78.
Prince, R. A., & File, K. (1994). The seven faces ofphilanthropy: A new approach to cultivating major donors.San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.
http://www.decision-making-confidence.com
(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 63
Decisions. Decisions. Decisions! for AFP AlohaNational Philanthropy Day 11/16/2015
11/6/2016
(c) 2016 William F. Bartolini, Ph.D., ACFRE 13
Before Giving Blood, people consider… Their attitude about giving blood How they think Significant Others will
feel about their giving blood, and Do they think they can really give it?
-- Ajzen, 1981
(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 65
Extended Theory of Planned Behavior
Behavior
PerceivedBehavioral
Control
SubjectiveNorms
Attitude
Decision to Act
EmotionalInvolvement
-- Bartolini, 2005
(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 66
Attitude towardGiving
Anger
Sadness
Contentment
Happiness
Compassion
Puzzlement
-.14
.41
-.18
(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 67
Decisions. Decisions. Decisions! for AFP AlohaNational Philanthropy Day 11/16/2015
11/6/2016
(c) 2016 William F. Bartolini, Ph.D., ACFRE 14
Decision to Act
Anger
Sadness
Contentment
Happiness
Compassion
Puzzlement
-.16
.38
-.18
-.14
-.10
(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 68
Approach to Decision Making1. Is the prospect emotionally
engaged?2. Does s/he have a positive
attitude?3. What will others think?4. Can s/he really do it?
(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 69
* What reinforcement does thedonor need so intentionbecomes action?
(c) William F. Bartolini, 2016 70