10 2012 11

CCMVal-1 CCMVal-2

CMIP3/IPPC4 CMIP5/IPPC5 CMIP5/IPPC5

CORDEX

CHFP

GLACE-2 CMIP5 Decadal

SHFP

ISVHE

IceHFP CFMIP

CFMIP phase 2

2000 03 05 07 01 02 04 06 08 09

MPACE GCSS WG2

GCPI

GeoMIP

ARM GCSS

CMIP5 AMIP

AEROCOM Phase II

MPACE GCSS WG1

TWP–ICE

CIRC

CGILS MJO–MIP

CCMI

CMAM30

Climate projections

Chemistry Climate Modelling

Seasonal/Decadal Prediction

Model development SCM

Model development AGCM

Application/MIP Type

Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs)

● CCCma participated ~25 MIPs over the last decade ● number and complexity of the MIPs has been increasing steadily over the last few years.

CanESM4!

AGCM4!

OGCM4!CTEM CMOC

CanRCM4!

AGCM4!C

hem

CMAM!Strat/Meso

AGCM3!

CanCM3!

AGCM3!

OGCM3!COUPLER

AGCM4!

OGCM4!COUPLER

CanCM4!CanSIPS!

ACCMIP

CCMVal-1

CCMVal-2

CORDEX

CMIP5

GEOMIP

MJO-DPIP

CMAM30

CCMI

SHFP

CHFP

GLASE-2

CMIP5

IceHFP

Current Model Suite Unification

CMIP6 Model Suite

– strat/trop chemistry – carbon cycle

Development

– AGCM dynamical core

– ocean model (NEMO)

– AGCM physics (eg aerosols, clouds)

– land surface

– ocean/land biogeo- chemical physics

– sea ice

CanESM5!

AGCM5!

OGCM5!

CM

AM

CMOC5 CTEM5 COUPLER

CanRCM5!

CM

AM

CTEM5

AGCM5!

CanCM3!

AGCM3!

OGCM3!COUPLER

AGCM4!

OGCM4!COUPLER

CanCM4!

CanSIPS!

AGCM5!

OGCM5!COUPLER

CanCM5!

CTEM5 CMOC5

CM

AM

CCCMa Model Development

CanAM4.1

CanOM4.1

CTEM4.1

CanAM4.2

CanOM4.2

CTEM4.2

CanESM4.1

CanSIPS4.1

CanRCM4.1

CanESM4.0 (CanESM2)

CanSIPS4.0 (CanSIPS)

CanRCM4.0 (CanRCM4)

CanAM4.3

CanOM4.3

CTEM4.3

CanESM4.2

CanSIPS4.2

CanRCM4.2

CanESM4.1

CanSIPS4.1

CanRCM4.1

(Apr/12) 18 months

(Oct/13)

Science Innovation

Model Development

Model Application

Model Version 4.0 (CMIP5)

4.1 4.2

4.3

Model Development

12 months

locked config documenting simulations

development/tuning

Science Innovation

12 months

locked physics tuning then documenting simulations

physics development

CCCma 18 Month Cycle of Model Version Development

(Oct/10) 18 months 18 months

CanAM4.1

CanOM4.1

CTEM4.1

CanAM4.2

CanOM4.2

CTEM4.2

CanESM4.1

CanSIPS4.1

CanRCM4.1

CanESM4.0 (CanESM2)

CanSIPS4.0 (CanSIPS)

CanRCM4.0 (CanRCM4)

CanAM4.3

CanOM4.3

CTEM4.3

CanESM4.2

CanSIPS4.2

CanRCM4.2

CanESM4.1

CanSIPS4.1

CanRCM4.1

(Apr/12) 18 months

(Oct/13)

Science Innovation

Model Development

Model Application

CCCma 18 Month Cycle of Model Version Development

Documenting simulations and their analysis are critical components of development cycle!

(Oct/10) 18 months 18 months

– documenting simulations are our internal version of “CMIP dignosis, evaluation and characterization experiments” (AMIP, 1850 control, historical, Hansen, Gregory, RCPs…)

such experiments inform both model development and application

Model-Based Climate Science

● Model “Development” and “Application” are high-profile community activities

– are biases model specific or systematic?

● Model “Documentation” has received far less attention but it is critical to both development and application

Development: – what is the impact of model changes on model behaviour and biases?

– how have biases evolved across model versions? – where are future development efforts best invested? Have those efforts had the desired impact?

– what are the basic properties/biases of that model version? Application: – what is the specific model version used for a particular study?

– is there any reason to suspect that the results of that study were adversely affected by the properties/biases of the version used?

There appears to be a real opportunity to fill this vacuum with something that would aid development efforts, improve the credibility and transparency of model- based climate studies, and ease the burden on modelling centers as well as MIPs

● It is arguable that the community’s model documentation efforts to date have poorly served the needs of both model development and model applications

Model Version Documentation and Analysis

● Model Version Documentation involves more than performing documenting runs.

● enormous advantages to creating an ongoing, community-led, Model Version Documentation and Analysis Project (MVDAP) - essentially an ongoing MIP

– simulations, data requests, diagnostic analyses periodically reviewed and updated – following CMIP5, MVDAP output could be served up freely in an online database

– The goal is to coordinate the interests of both model development and model application to serviced the communities interest in both (enormous efficiency)

– the MVDAP database would provide a rich archive for research into systematic model biases, model validation, metrics, etc. – MVDAP would connect model development, model analysis, and model application efforts across modelling centers and its transparency would greatly enhance the credibility of climate modelling science.

data request

diagnostic analysis

documenting simulations

version attributes

Documentation Analysis Documentation

– attribution (eg CMIP5 METAFORE questionnaire) – diagnosis, evaluation and characterization exp

Analysis – data request (time-series’ variables and frequencies) – analysis (suite of diagnostics to document model behaviour an properties, validation, metrics…)

Potential Evolution of MVDAP Archive Over Time

MDP.v01 MDP.v02 MDP.v03 MDP.v04

– versions of model documentation packages (i.e. model attributes, documenting runs, associated data request, and diagnostic analyses)

– colours represent 6 different models (A-F), with model versions increasing from left to right

mod

el

A B C D

E

F

– such model documentation packages would contain an enormous amount valuable information about:

time

– over time the archive would document a transparent history of climate models and their properties improving the traceability and credibility of their applications

the state of climate modeling at any given time the evolution of any one model’s properties over time (across versions)