model for relating pm 2.5 federal reference method & nephelometer measurements presented by...
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![Page 1: Model For Relating PM 2.5 Federal Reference Method & Nephelometer Measurements Presented by Jenny Parikh](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022052702/56649f585503460f94c7e553/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Model For Relating PM2.5 Federal Reference Method & Nephelometer Measurements
Presented by
Jenny Parikh
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04/21/23 2EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02
Agenda
What was doneValue to PublicHow the model is developedWhat’s Next
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04/21/23 3EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02
GOAL
Develop Statistical Linear regression model relating PM2.5 FRM and Nephelometers (continuous monitors)
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04/21/23 4EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02
WHY
FRM is used for NAAQS compliance (FILTER based)• 1999-to date• PM2.5 measurement are below NAAQS• Continuous Monitor data is available
Temporally resolved data : Diurnal cycles Need to estimate PM2.5 in real time (AQI) Push from EPA to complete Real time network QA TOOL
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04/21/23 5EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02
VALUE TO PUBLIC
Ability to represent unhealthy air conditions while it is occurring
Part 58.50 of 40CFR requires all MSAs with population of 350,000 or greater to report daily AQI
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04/21/23 6EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02
METHODOLOGY
Determine required environmental measurements, suitable data and data reduction
Perform exploratory data analyses• Histogram • Scatter plots and outliers• Time series analyses
Determine the “best” model Evaluate the ability of the model to estimate PM2.5
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04/21/23 7EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02
Guidance Document
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04/21/23 8EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02
Guidance document
http://www.epa.gov/ttn/amtic/files/ambient/monitorstrat/aqidqorept.pdf
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04/21/23 9EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02
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0 40 8020Miles
®
Nephelometer Monitoring Sites
Nephelometer Sites
2005
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04/21/23 10EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02
MODEL DEVELOPMENT
Eastern Sites• Chewelah, Coleville, Pullman, Ritzville, Walla Walla,• Kennewick, Yakima, Twisp, Moses Lake……
Western Sites• Longview, Lacey, North Bend, Yew Street, Beacon Hill,
Redmond, Bellevue Goldfarb, Vancouver…
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04/21/23 11EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02
RESULTS: Chewelah
FRM vs Modeled FRM
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
FRM 2.5
Modeled FRM
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04/21/23 12EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02
Next Step
Strong FRM- CM relationship indicated it was worth considering a comparison of CM and FRM that are not collocated
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04/21/23 13EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02
How the E. WA model was developed
FRM and Neph Data for the sites started from 04/01 till todate, about 75 days of data
44 days where all five sites had data
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04/21/23 14EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02
Comparison of Nephelometers
Comparison of Neph from all sites
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43
Colville Bscat
Chew elah Bscat
PullmanBscat
RitzvilleBscat
Ww alla Bscat
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04/21/23 15EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02
Comparison of FRMs from all E. WA sites
Comparison of FRMs
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5.0
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25.0
30.0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43
Colville FRM
Chew elahFRM 2.5
PullmanFRM
Ritzville FRM
W Walla FRM
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04/21/23 16EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02
Analysis of Data Strong CM-FRM relationship was observed
Compared CM and FRM data that are not co-located
Strong relationship indicated a possibility of developing a model using the average of the set of FRM measurements with CM measurements
This also gives measurements that are better representative of the overall region
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04/21/23 17EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02
Colville and E. Washington Model
Colville FRM and East. WA model
0.05.0
10.015.020.025.030.0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43Colville FRMEast.Wa model
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04/21/23 18EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02
Pullman and E. WA Model
Pullman vs. Eastern Wa model
0.02.0
4.06.0
8.010.0
12.014.0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43PullmanFRMEastern WA model
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04/21/23 19EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02
Eastern Washington Model
Colville FRM and East. WA model
0.05.0
10.015.020.025.030.0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43Colville FRMEast.Wa model
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04/21/23 20EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02
Ritzville and E. Washington Model
Ritzville vs. Eastern WA model
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43Ritzville FRM
Eastern WA model
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04/21/23 21EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02
WallaWalla and E.WA Model
WWalla vs. Eastern Wa model
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43W Walla FRM
Eastern WA model
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04/21/23 22EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02
Models All Eastern Sites PM2.5 correlated = 10 (0.710771(logBscat)+1.325303)
This model is applied to Lacrosse, Rosalia, Starbucks, Mesa)
Final NorthBend PM2.5 correlated = 10 (0.892521 (log Bscat)+1.394775) Previous North BendPM2.5 correlated = 10 (0.93537 (log Bscat)+1.424513)
Previous Beacon Hill PM2.5 correlated = 10 (0.689323 (log Bscat)+1.390065)
( R2 = 0.84) New Beacon Hill PM2.5 correlated = 10 (0.793263 (log Bscat)+1.420227)
( R2 = 0.90)
NWAPA Model PM2.5 correlated = 10 (0.755345 (log Bscat)+1.36943)
This is applied to Mt. Vernon
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04/21/23 23EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02
IMPLICATIONS
Valuable tool for Eastern WA – covers large geographical area with Nephelometer
Divest from PM2.5 FRM network- optimization and modification
Resource allocations• Workforce demands• Monitor costs
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04/21/23 24EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02
WHAT’S NEXT
Refine and update with additional data for Western Washington Model• Quarterly / Seasonal basis
Additional sites e.g; Stevenson (Bonneville, Mt. Zion, Wishram), Leavenworth
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04/21/23 25EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02
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0 40 8020Miles
®
Nephelometer Monitoring Sites
Nephelometer Sites w/correlated PM2.5Nephelometer Sites
2005
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04/21/23 26EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02
Nephelometer/Correlated PM2.5
Most of our nephelometer site data has been analyzed to create a correlation to PM2.5 .
Those sites with a PM2.5 correlation are shown on the site operators’ page https://fortress.wa.gov/ecy/aqp/Site/ AND the public page as NPM2.5 https://fortress.wa.gov/ecy/aqp/Public/aqn.shtml