mobilizing the connected consumer · mobilizing the connected consumer carrie macgillivray, program...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Mobilizing the Connected Consumer · Mobilizing the Connected Consumer Carrie MacGillivray, Program Vice President Mobile Services, M2M & Network Infrastructure @CMacIDC](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022053004/5f088f3d7e708231d4229c95/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Mobilizing the Connected Consumer
Carrie MacGillivray, Program Vice President
Mobile Services, M2M & Network Infrastructure @CMacIDC
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Looking Back Operator Story Has Been About…
Connectivity
Network
Services
Devices
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Looking Ahead to 2013
U.S. LTE deployments reach critical mass Prepaid rises in importance for “big two” FCC/DoJ approves TMo/Metro Sprint/Softbank/Clearwire/Dish figure it out Spectrum woes get louder Where is #3?
• BlackBerry 10 faces scale challenge • WP8 and Nokia just don’t mix
Shared data plans have mixed results
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The Turning Point is NOW
Network Monetization Embracing OTT as Frenemy Connecting More “Things”
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Content & User Experience Requires a Robust Network
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Network Monetization
Premium services and content
Quality of Service Faster speeds, better
experience Consistent experience
across devices Business analytics to
understand user dynamics/behavior
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Over-The-Top is Friend, Not Foe
Think back to the threat of mobile VoIP (i.e. Skype)
Messaging across platforms, opportunity for integrated services
Opportunity to partner, co-market and reach larger audience
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Connecting “Things”
• Scalable • One customer = many connections
• Leverages legacy networks • Many use cases will suffice on 2G
• Reduces customer service costs
• Endless # of revenue models
• Value-add services • Managed services, analytics
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Some of Best Roles Are Supporting Roles
2016 operator will be the pipe AND critical partner
“Connected devices” will be passé • Instead, just a reality
Direct billing through content providers – operators play wholesale role
Our kids (grandkids?) won’t be able to name the top three operators
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Contact Information
Carrie MacGillivray Program Vice President, Mobile Services, M2M & Network Infrastructure [email protected] 1-519-954-8026 Twitter: @cmacIDC
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Consumer Electronics: The Darkness Before the Sunrise
Jonathan Gaw Research Manager, Consumer Technology
@jonathangaw
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Digital Consumer Devices Market – Growing and Evolving
12
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Worldwide Consumer Digital Device Revenues 2010 - 2016 ($000s)
Smartphones
HDTVs
Consumer Laptop PCs
Tablets
Digital Cameras
Feature phones
Consumer Desktop PCs
Video Game Consoles
Handheld Video Games
Set-top Boxes
Digital Camcorders
Blu-ray Players
Printers
eReaders
Digital Media Adapters
DVD Players
Source: DRAFT IDC Worldwide Consumer Market Model, January 2013
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Digital Consumer Devices Market – Growing and Evolving
13
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Revenues from Smartphones, Tablets, HDTVs, Laptops...and everything else ($000s)
Worldwide Consumer Digital Device Revenues
Smartphones, Tablets, HDTVs, Laptops Revenues
Source: DRAFT IDC Worldwide Consumer Market Model, January 2013
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The Problem - Commoditization
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The Problem – Value Migration
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The Problem – Crumbling Brick-and-Mortar Retail
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The Solution – Love and Hate
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The Solution – Bi-Lateralism
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The Solution – The New ABCs of Sales
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Essential Guidance
Invest in art Double down on mobile, social, cloud, big data Count what counts
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Contact Information
Jonathan Gaw Research Manager, Consumer Technology [email protected] 612-729-4730 Twitter: @jonathangaw
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The Consumer Cloud A New Platform for Innovation, Content
Management and Service Delivery Greg Ireland
Research Manager, Multiscreen Video @IDCvideoguy
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Intersections as 2013 Begins
Devices | Connectivity | Services
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Cloud as the Platform
Innovation Service Delivery
Content Management
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Personal Cloud
Source: 2012 ConsumerScape 360 Survey; U.S. Consumers and Cloud Services (IDC #235199, July 2012)
15% of U.S. respondents very
familiar 60% of respondents age 18-34
very or somewhat familiar
54% of respondents that are familiar
say security is a barrier 46% of respondents that are familiar say
higher Internet access fee is a barrier
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Expanding Addressable Universe 3.4 billion network-enabled
PC/CE devices
900 million network-enabled retail CE devices
1 billion smartphones
200 million tablets
700 million pay TV HHs
2.4 billion Internet users
1 billion streaming video users
EOY2012 WW installed base estimates; numbers not exact due to rounding
Sources: Worldwide Consumer Market Model (IDC Draft, January 2013); Worldwide Multichannel Pay TV Subscriber 2012-2016 Forecast (IDC #238291, December 2012); New Media Market Model (2H 2012, December 2012)
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Ripple Effect
Premium content distribution
Connected CE integration
Broadband access
Personal storage
Content sharing
Communication
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Guidance on the Road to 2016 Evolution of/disruption to legacy The mobile-first Internet Connecting the network-enabled Table stakes to differentiation Cloud-based “virtual” services Network and content delivery infrastructures
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Learn More
IDC’s Consumer Cloud Multiclient Study Survey and forecast deliverables Defining and segmenting the consumer cloud Sizing consumer cloud users and spending Assessing consumer attitudes and behaviors Global scope, regions, developed v emerging
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Contact Information
Greg Ireland Research Manager, Multiscreen Video [email protected] 305-351-3200 Twitter: @IDCvideoguy
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SmartUltra4KOLED: A Fresh Look at the TV Market
Bob O’Donnell Program Vice President, Clients and Displays
@bobotech
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Agenda
TV Forecast The New Technologies UltraHD or UltraBS? Make Mine OLED
The iTV Question Essential Guidance
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Worldwide TV Forecast
0
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Western Europe
USA
Middle East and Africa
Latin America
Japan
Central and Eastern Europe Canada
Asia Pacific excluding Japan
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Worldwide TV Forecast Revenues ($M)
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
$85,000
$90,000
$95,000
$100,000
$105,000
$110,000
$115,000
$120,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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Q3 2012 Worldwide TV Market Share
17.20%
12.39%
6.31%
5.76% 5.43% 5.01% 4.58%
4.13% 3.14%
2.90%
33.16%
Samsung LG Sony Toshiba Panasonic Sharp TCL Hisense Philips Skyworth Others
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LCD Screen Size Forecast
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
60in.+ 55–59in. 50–54in. 45–49in. 40–44in. 35–39in. 30–34in. 25–29in. 20–24in. 15–19in. <15in.
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TV Technology Forecast
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
OLED PDP LCD CRT
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The Never Ending Battle for “Newness”
The Problem? Inertia
Solutions?
Technology 2013 Adoption 2016 Adoption LED 87% 100% 3D 18% 30% Connected TV 41% 48% Smart TV 21% 41% OLED 0.3% 7% Ultra HD 0.01% 5%
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UltraHD
Beautiful to look at…but Limited content Extravagant price Difficult to appreciate
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OLED Thin, bright, colorful, but difficult to manufacture Can’t offer 4K Resolution
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Apple iTV: Fact or Fiction?
Prototypes have been built However….
Business model changes Content partnerships
Opportunity? Interface
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Essential Guidance
LCD with 4K vs. OLED Smart OS confusion
Gestures, voice and remotes Make it all work!
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Contact Information
Bob O’Donnell Vice President, Clients & Displays [email protected] 650.350.6482 Twitter: bobodtech
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Q&A Panel
Panelist: Bob O’Donnell, VP, Clients & Displays
Moderator: Danielle Levitas, Group VP, Consumer, Clients, Broadband & New Media
Panelist: Carrie MacGillivray, VP, Mobile Services, M2M & Network Infrastructure
Panelist: Greg Ireland, Manager, Video, Consumer Cloud
Panelist: Jonathan Gaw, Manager, Connected Consumer
#IDCCES
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